So how is CoH REALLY doing? (An answer)
By
Acemace,
Posted on: 2010-01-09 13:31 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
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Villain drops rates,
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Originally Posted by Ironblade
Are you a noob? The regen set and everyone's accuracy; what else would they nerf?
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The drop rate on Villain pants is far too low as it is. No more! Nooo more!
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Originally Posted by LISAR
Villain drops rates,
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Playstation 3 - XBox 360 - Wii - PSP
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Samuel_Tow: Your avatar is... I think I like it
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As "bragging rights," perhaps, but I cannot agree that active subscriptions is the most important aspect. PlayNC is a business, and as such revenue is the bottom line. If they have enough revenue, then that's all that matters. What keeps a game afloat and what gets it made in the first place is the fact that it makes money. As long as it makes money, that's all that counts. And despite all the doom and gloom, City of Heroes appears to nevertheless make money for them.
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Originally Posted by UnSub
Arcana - active player subscriptions (often incorrectly referred to as "active players", which ignores dual accounts or players who might be paying but not active) might not be as useful as title revenue, but it has become the de facto measure of how a title is performing.
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Samuel_Tow is the only poster that makes me want to punch him in the head more often when I'm agreeing with him than when I'm disagreeing with him.
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Ah, but they have already nerfed the accuracy of anyone playing a /regen! It's true! I know this cuz both my /regen scrappers miss way too much compared to everyone else except my poor electric/electric scrapper who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn (from the inside). Sometimes I feel like I should file a missing person report on that electric/electric cuz he's been missing since Outbreak...|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
Are you a noob? The regen set and everyone's accuracy; what else would they nerf?
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Uh... oh, yeah. The super secret stealth nerf to /regen - no matter what primary you choose, at a random point between levels 20 and 30 it suddenly becomes AIR MELEE:
1. Whiff - a straightforward single target miss.
2. WHIFF MOAR - a slightly louder single target miss.
3. Oscillating Fan - miss several targets in a narrow cone.
4. What's that Smell? - single target self-disorient.
5. Soothing Breeze - boosts the lassitude of self and team mates with a series of rapid-fire misses.
6. Ceiling Fan - PBAoE, leap up and miss your foe from above!
7. Pageant Wave - here she/he is! MISS/MISSter Paragon City!
8. Birthday Wish - wide cone, very effective vs candles.
9. Dust Away - AoE, thoroughly removes dust and dirt from nearby targets.
Yeah.
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I have to say, I noticed a several people either idle all subscriptions or at least secondary ones during this downturn period. Some of those people did so because they lost their jobs or because of similar circumstances. (One lost the family breadwinner and then could not find a job.) Despite that the downturn has been going on for a while, the obvious spike in US unemployment is more recent. However, it's certainly been going on longer than just this quarter.
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Originally Posted by TonyV
I think the economy probably significantly affected new game sales, but not so much subscription-based games.
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Originally Posted by Samuel_Tow
As "bragging rights," perhaps, but I cannot agree that active subscriptions is the most important aspect. PlayNC is a business, and as such revenue is the bottom line. If they have enough revenue, then that's all that matters. What keeps a game afloat and what gets it made in the first place is the fact that it makes money. As long as it makes money, that's all that counts. And despite all the doom and gloom, City of Heroes appears to nevertheless make money for them.
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I think it's a question of revenue vs. overall game health. Box sales can generate the largest amount of profit, but subs are a more accurate indicater of game popularity and overall health. In the long run, the number of boxes sold won't matter if nobody is playing past the free month. Look at CO for a good example of that. The game made good numbers in it's initial sales, but it won't be around much longer in it's current incarnation the way they are hemoraging subs.
Conversely, if the game has a stable number of subs that will meet or exceed operating costs, the game can theoretically go forever, even if a single new box is never sold. That appears to be the position that CoX is currently in.
People also need to keep in mind even if subs are doing fine it does not mean people are logging in and playing. There may be a lot of people waiting for new content, like Going Rogue, and are playing other games while they wait.
A lot of the doomish posts are because people aren't seeing people playing which could still happen even with twice as many subscribers as the game may actually have.
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
So how is CoH really doing? Well, I hope that its doing very well. There are some good points made throughout this thread, but my concern is how players are perceiving the health of our game. I've notice, of late, that there have been more posts about this. Charts and other measures may be great for figuring out how the game is doing; however, many players are not going to go to that extent to determine the game's health. Many players are not going to come to the forum to use it as a resource, so these metrics that have been presented by posters will not serve them. Perception is a big deal and some folks are perceiving that the game is not as robust as it has been or touted to be.
Whether players are simply not playing because of the economy or waiting for GR, some of our player base may not be as savvy, for whatever reason, to make those determinations and may leave because they feel/think the population of the game is not there. This should be of concern to the marketing department for CoH/V. Hopefully it is and they'll soon address these concerns.
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I would agree that the general economy can have an effect on the revenue stream, but without knowing the demographics and metrics of the customers it is hard to gauge the impact that outside influences have.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
I have to say, I noticed a several people either idle all subscriptions or at least secondary ones during this downturn period. Some of those people did so because they lost their jobs or because of similar circumstances. (One lost the family breadwinner and then could not find a job.) Despite that the downturn has been going on for a while, the obvious spike in US unemployment is more recent. However, it's certainly been going on longer than just this quarter.
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If everyone was subbed on an annual basis, secondary accounts included, then Access numbers may not change that drastically and revenue may remain flat for a while. Depending on the state of economy, revenue might even go up temporally as people swap from annual renewals to shorter renewal periods (which cost a little more).
However, since the general consensus is that the recession will be long with a flat recovery, at some point the general economy will drag on CoX as well, which is probably happening right now.
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Heh. That's a good one. My favourite version of it is still the one about the end of Torchwood S2, though.|
Originally Posted by Afterimage
You know, you could edit that video to be about any nerf in any online game. Substitue COH for CO, substitute the Energy Melee nerf or whatever for the CO nerf mentioned.
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I'm one of those people with an active sub but playing very little. I've logged in a handful of times since October. Partly it's because my duo partner is playing other games now, partly it's because of the still-extant problem with TFs being fixed at difficulty 0, and partly it was having a lot of other things to do in the run-up to Christmas. I'm going to give it another month or so to see if I get my enthusiasm back, and then if I'm still not playing, cancel.
I pay monthly, but I guess a lot of people use the longer-term options, which could put a lag into subs falling off after people stop logging in. How you'd even begin quantifying that without number from NCSoft, I have no idea. I'd assume that lump-sum subs are counted at the moment the money is taken, not spread out over the lifetime of the sub, though.
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Originally Posted by Psyonico
can I have just a little bit of Doom?
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I fear for my life.
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Originally Posted by Leo_G
Actually, you can edit that video to be anything about *anything*. I've even see the version that was about the death of Micheal Jackson.
But yeah, it's still funny. |
Anyway, it's good to know that the game isn't a ghost town across the board. Guardian's felt a bit more quieter than it did last year, though--especially on redside ... but it was noted in another thread I read that redside's usually quieter. (Still sucks for giant monster-related events, though.)
great post, Tony.
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Interesting read.
If the Goat hadn't, I would have as I was linked to this from another thread.
Nice post but there are a lot of confounding factors out there in regards to your comments (which you do acknowledge so good on ya).
Anyway, I was wondering if you had sub. numbers as well? To me, that is also very important. It looks like we're at an all time low and it feels like a low in population.
Also, I don't see GR making a huge impact on player numbers. CoV came out when this game was all new and the systems were cool and exciting. However, that was 6 years ago and then CoV came out 18 mos. later. Since then the game system itself has been similar (contact, instanced mission, same maps, same enemies - for the most part). This game has failed to really evolve and makes it tough for vet players to want to continue.
I am sure I will check out GR but unless they have added to game mechanics and play, I can't see many returning vets sticking around.
Considering was was said at PAX, I fully expect Paragon Studios to announce lay-offs and server-merge, which is the precursor to closing their doors...
o.O
O.o
What...?
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I just read that panel. If that's all true, then I'm much more looking forward to GR and Issue 19...I guess GR will be issue 18.|
Originally Posted by Red Valkyrja
Considering was was said at PAX, I fully expect Paragon Studios to announce lay-offs and server-merge, which is the precursor to closing their doors...
o.O O.o What...? |
Kinetic Melee!! I have had a toon in mind for something like that but could never make them due to energy melee not quite fitting the bill.
In any case...this sounds like good stuff. They just need to market this well now.
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GR isn't an Issue it's a paid expansion. Just like CoV wasn't Issue 6.
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Originally Posted by Slashman
I just read that panel. If that's all true, then I'm much more looking forward to GR and Issue 19...I guess GR will be issue 18.
Kinetic Melee!! I have had a toon in mind for something like that but could never make them due to energy melee not quite fitting the bill. In any case...this sounds like good stuff. They just need to market this well now. |
newsrama apparently makes my anti-virus nervous, can anyone summarize?
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Its really both. There was an Issue 5 preceding CoV and an Issue 7 following it, either the box was considered Issue 6 or the devs decided to skip that issue like it was the 13th floor. Heroes that did not buy CoV still got a new Issues worth of content with the PvP zones being the big chunk as well as SG-graphics-UI changes that bled over from the CoV labor. Likewise, all signs point to GR being considered Issue 18.
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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
GR isn't an Issue it's a paid expansion. Just like CoV wasn't Issue 6.
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Umber's Hall of Heroes & Villains
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Still, it would be rather disappointing if GR was considered I18 and yet there was nearly zero free content released with it. Originally at least a chunk of whats currently slated to come in I17 would have been the concurrent issue with GR, but now that it's coming 'early' I'm really rather curious what the 'free' part of I18 might end up being.|
Originally Posted by Umber
Its really both. There was an Issue 5 preceding CoV and an Issue 7 following it, either the box was considered Issue 6 or the devs decided to skip that issue like it was the 13th floor. Heroes that did not buy CoV still got a new Issues worth of content with the PvP zones being the big chunk as well as SG-graphics-UI changes that bled over from the CoV labor. Likewise, all signs point to GR being considered Issue 18.
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I19 looks like it's continuing the whole idea of 'finishing' the content begun with the previous boxed content though, which I find interesting as a trend if nothing else. The only thing I can think of for I18 is a slew of new missions scattered around the regular game focused on the morality system. Can't actually switch unless you have the expansion, but you still get the chunk of related content that takes place in the 'main' reality of the game.
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But remember, CoV (the cause of the spike) had more exposure and drew in more people. GR doesn't and is much cheaper, meaning that a smaller spike is more likely to occur.
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Originally Posted by Dispari
The unpublished Q4 there may well be even lower, since we're currently competing with CO (luls), SWO, and some other MMO and non-MMO releases. But with GR about to come out, we should see another significant spike.
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While mostly correct, the CoV Box was *not* Issue 6. The Box was "City of Villains." Issue 6 was "Along Came a Spider."|
Originally Posted by Umber
Its really both. There was an Issue 5 preceding CoV and an Issue 7 following it, either the box was considered Issue 6 or the devs decided to skip that issue like it was the 13th floor. Heroes that did not buy CoV still got a new Issues worth of content with the PvP zones being the big chunk as well as SG-graphics-UI changes that bled over from the CoV labor. Likewise, all signs point to GR being considered Issue 18.
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Issue 6, was concurrent with the box, after all, you needed a huge Patch to enable an expansion. Also, as you note, there were universal changes made in the game at that time which weren't limited to just those who purchased the Box: PvP Zones; Gladiators; and the dreaded ED.
Since the Devs skipped over the numbering system (17 before GR and 19 after GR) then we can assume that there will be a huge Patch that will enable the GR expansion called Issue 18. It may or may not have stuff which those who do not purchase the Box will have access to.
Since people will see Heroes leaving hero zones and going to villain zones and vice versa, I'm going to assume that those who do not buy the Box will see some changes with Issue 18.
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See? Villains and spkies do go together |
Originally Posted by That_Ninja
CoV (the cause of the spike)
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But slightly more seriously, I think GR will have more than enough in it to get a lot of reactivations - especially with the one level teaser for the Incarnate system
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