So how is CoH REALLY doing? (An answer)
By
Acemace,
Posted on: 2010-01-09 13:31 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
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Ok, do opposing viewpoints really appear this distorted in your mind, or are you being like this on purpose? you and coldmed were calling the game a "ghost town" as in, completely empty, people were countering that no, the game still is viable, how was that difficult for you to understand? Nobody was claiming the idiotic strawman that you claim that they were, we were claiming that the game is still sustainable, outside of silly strawman arguments, do you have a valid counter-point, or are you just doing this to see yourself post?
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Originally Posted by Tank_Washington
Way, way, too reasonable and accurate.
But don't bother, just conclude the game's a perpetual subscription juggernaut with mythological anti-sub loss properties, and you'll find a much more friendly atmosphere in here. Ponies and rainbows! . |
Couple of other things.
Would be nice to see the Launch numbers before 05 just for completeness, although it probably won't mean very much.
Other points of discussion are the issue 6 launch numbers 06 Q3 numbers and 07 Q2. What was the cause of the rise (or subsequent drops there)?
Is there any good way to plunk in the boxed set (retail) introductions to gauge how well it affects the ability of CoX to get new customers in?
How do other significant events such as ED, GDN, AE bans/nerfs affect the sub base?
PS. and when the breakup of Cryptic/NCNC happened as well...
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Looking at the numbers, it does look like CO did take a bite out of CoX. Just remember that for the longest time, the CO development team had full access to CoX technology and experience to draw from, and that Cryptic was the original developer of CoX, even if it is in name only today.|
Originally Posted by Slashman
Look. CO was never going to mean doom for COX. Even if CO became another WOW...it wouldn't have killed this game.
MMOs do not kill other MMOs. MMOs kill themselves with poor design choices, poor support and a lack of understanding of their target audience. Anyone arguing that to the contrary is either delusional, bitter or childish. |
Obviously NCSoft and Paragon Studios were worried enough about CO drawing numbers away because they announced the various issues, gave early beta access and instituted the loyalty bonus program during the run up to CO's launch date and then beyond that when CO's launch date got delayed as well.
There's no telling what the numbers would have been like if CoX wasn't promoted in that fashion. Their recent promotional efforts could have blunted a larger drop than what we see here for the CO launch.
Okay, I have created a new chart, this time adjusting for the USD/KRW exchange rates at the time. The sales are now displayed in U.S. dollars, which is where most of the sales were generated. I haven't added the timeline, and I also started the chart in 2006 to weed out the CoV outlier. Here are the results:
The chart looks different because I composed this one in Google Docs instead of Microsoft Excel. I published the data so that you can see it.
We've been saving Paragon City for eight and a half years. It's time to do it one more time.
(If you love this game as much as I do, please read that post.)
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You'd have to ask Squirrel Girl - she's the one who owns him.
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Originally Posted by Psyonico
can I have just a little bit of Doom?
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@Golden Girl
City of Heroes comics and artwork
Apparently, we may see some ex-COH'ers come back...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xinu5jsnKhc
to 
TO THE END!Villains are those who dedicate their lives to causing mayhem. Villians are people from the planet Villia!
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I think "replace" would be a better word than "kill" - for example, WoW replced Everquest - but it didn't kill it.|
Originally Posted by Slashman
Look. CO was never going to mean doom for COX. Even if CO became another WOW...it wouldn't have killed this game.
MMOs do not kill other MMOs. MMOs kill themselves with poor design choices, poor support and a lack of understanding of their target audience. |
So you could say some people thought CO would replace CoH as the main superhero MMO, rather than kill it - until the full horror of CO began to be relaized
Not sure what launch day nerf-bombs count as - suicide, perhaps?
@Golden Girl
City of Heroes comics and artwork
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Oh.|
Originally Posted by cursedsorcerer
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My.
God.
That is absolutely hysterical.
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
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D0000m!|
Originally Posted by TonyV
Okay, I have created a new chart, this time adjusting for the USD/KRW exchange rates at the time. The sales are now displayed in U.S. dollars, which is where most of the sales were generated. I haven't added the timeline, and I also started the chart in 2006 to weed out the CoV outlier. Here are the results:
The chart looks different because I composed this one in Google Docs instead of Microsoft Excel. I published the data so that you can see it. |
Just kidding. Looks like CO did take a decent sized bite out of the player base.
Looks like the currency adjusted numbers are down. No idea what percentage European sales are like, and Euros have done well against the USD recently.
Wonder what 09 Q4 is going to look like?
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That was hillarious. |
Originally Posted by cursedsorcerer
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Playstation 3 - XBox 360 - Wii - PSP
Remember kids, crack is whack!
Samuel_Tow: Your avatar is... I think I like it
ok first off, good post. Some hard data, and a reasonable extraolation based on the numbers.
Caveat: I have not read every post in this thread.
However, a couple of points - I'd suggest that subs are more important than box sales, especially when in the UK, boxes are like rocking horse excrement. It's incredibly difficult to buy this game from a shop. (I won't say impossible because someone will pipe up and say "There's an independant games retailer in Royston Vasey that's got 2 copies - but that really is about it.) WoW is everywhere, but CoH is nowhere to be seen. If you didn't know it existed, you wouldn't know it existed.
I don't know how that compares to the RoW but I'm guessing it's not a unique position. I sincerely hope that GR actually corrects that and continues to grow the game - but history tells me I'm gonna be disappointed.
One sign I have seen that tells me the game is doing ok, and this is a weather vein not many have accounted for: I'm getting lots of ingame mail from Chinese Gold Sellers again, after a dearth over the last 4-5 months. This tells me two things: 1 there are people buying inf on my server, and that the sellers are actually making a profilt. That is one (offbeat but valuable) method of telling how well the game's going. Parasites rarely stick around if the host is dead.
Thelonious Monk
I know. Because WoW is so well-known and so advertised, it creates the illusion that it is so awesome and your ability to customize your character is so great in WoW and CoH is the game that has bland costume pieces and poor content. It's criminal if you ask me! City of Heroes definately deserves more publicity than it actually receives. Hopefully Going Rogue will change the status quo.
to TO THE END!Villains are those who dedicate their lives to causing mayhem. Villians are people from the planet Villia!
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Okay, so we are a bit down compared to our general trend, but not enough that it should really be a concern just yet. And we should also expect another spike when GR is released.|
Originally Posted by TonyV
Okay, I have created a new chart, this time adjusting for the USD/KRW exchange rates at the time.
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Now to wait for Washington to note that this new chart proves the game is dying, after posting on the first page that charts prove nothing. v
v
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Originally Posted by PRAF68_EU
Dispari has more than enough credability, and certainly doesn't need to borrow any from you.
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When you look at the most accurate, comprehensive financial data NCSoft used to reveal, you're presented with deteriorating concurrent numbers, along with the reduction in month over month subscriptions.
Sales tell only part of the picture regarding the games status, which, for the umpteenth time, is probably behind the reasoning which led to the restricted access.
Let me just add I "believe" this mmo will continue operating for another couple of years.
That doesn't conflict with the likelihood that, given the restricted data available, the game is functioning on the lowest operational numbers in it's five plus years, across the board.
Now, here's something to temporarily distract the retaliation replies sure to come;
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You know, you could edit that video to be about any nerf in any online game. Substitue COH for CO, substitute the Energy Melee nerf or whatever for the CO nerf mentioned.|
Originally Posted by cursedsorcerer
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Still funny though.
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Let's hope it looks better than this:|
Originally Posted by PumBumbler
Wonder what 09 Q4 is going to look like?
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No matter what data you want to look at, we don't have access to the numbers that are truly relevant. We don't know how many subscriptions are active. We don't know how many people maintain two or more accounts. And we don't know how many people are actually playing with their active accounts, versus those who are just maintaining their accounts for the vet rewards while waiting for Going Rogue to hit beta.
I don't need any chart or statistic to tell me active playing population is down. I see fewer people when I play at the places where people tend to congregate: the markets, the trainers, the universities.
Last year people were competing for christmas presents. The only time I had a free hand at opening them was Christmas morning while I waited for my relatives to show up. This year, there were unopened presents on the servers that I play on. Every days has been like last year's Christmas day.
I'm not stating doom. Ultima Online was still active last time I checked. So was Everquest Online Adventures (a Playstation 2 MMO most people never heard of). Old games, less popular games. MMO's reach a certain spot, they make money. But it would be nice to see more people playing.
Paragon Studios may not like pre-announcing stuff, because then they don't have to defend design decisions that players like to interpret as 'broken promises'. But I really wish that they would try to generate some buzz. Release some videos, give some interviews. Publish something.
brilliant, love the chart. nice to know that the game is doing well
Volt Sentinel Reference
Thunder is good, thunder is impressive, but lightning does the work.
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Having seen CO, its hard to imagine that was able to draw AND RETAIN a significant numbers of players from here. What will be interesting over there is how the outlook will look once it hits one year, since the lifetime subscription over there amounted to about one years subscription, and they'll lose that revenue. Overall, I'd say CO will go down before CoX, unless something drastic happens.|
Originally Posted by Perfect_Pain
I do not think CO made a dent. What happened is the 12 people who were unsatisfied with this game went over there with all their illusions of grandeur in believing that game would be this games successor... and now they are over there making fanboi posts.
Theres like 12 of them... in the sea of unsatisfied gamers. They are kinda cute. I believe the things that hinder this game are not enough NEWS about upcoming expansions, and wheres the next free update? Question mark... and well... the economy in the US sucks right now. |
Honestly, I think two factors have impacted the game, first is the economy, the second will be solved by GR coming out.
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This is pretty much the direct definition of a straw man. And that's pretty sad.
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Originally Posted by Tank_Washington
Way, way, too reasonable and accurate.
But don't bother, just conclude the game's a perpetual subscription juggernaut with mythological anti-sub loss properties, and you'll find a much more friendly atmosphere in here. Ponies and rainbows! . |
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Samuel_Tow is the only poster that makes me want to punch him in the head more often when I'm agreeing with him than when I'm disagreeing with him.
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I'm not sure that could be applied here either. WOW didn't hurt Everquest as much as Everquest 2 did. EQ 2 probably paired off a more sizable chunk of EQ's players than WOW did. When WOW launched, EQ was already a 'minority' MMO. It's still up and running, but it doesn't have the population that EQ2 has, nor will it ever again.|
Originally Posted by Golden Girl
I think "replace" would be a better word than "kill" - for example, WoW replced Everquest - but it didn't kill it.
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So you could say some people thought CO would replace CoH as the main superhero MMO, rather than kill it - until the full horror of CO began to be relaized
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Not sure what launch day nerf-bombs count as - suicide, perhaps?
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Originally Posted by Wooden_Replica
Having seen CO, its hard to imagine that was able to draw AND RETAIN a significant numbers of players from here. What will be interesting over there is how the outlook will look once it hits one year, since the lifetime subscription over there amounted to about one years subscription, and they'll lose that revenue. Overall, I'd say CO will go down before CoX, unless something drastic happens.
Honestly, I think two factors have impacted the game, first is the economy, the second will be solved by GR coming out. |
CO wasn't able to retain a significant number of players. They went from having between 250-300 shards for each zone with each containing close to 100 players when the game started to half a dozen shards per zone each containing about 50 people before three months were up. Most of the people that left in the first three months were gone before the free time they got with the game purchase expired.
Then there's going to be the mass exodus in February when the 6 month trekkies leave to play STO. Hopefully for the remaining CO fans there will still be enough subs left to keep the game alive. It's been speculated on their forums that Cryptic/Atari only needs 80-90k subs to keep the game alive.
Say, something keeps bothering me here. People keep talking about subscriptions vs. boxes, but isn't this info about net earnings? Wouldn't that technically include boxes, subscriptions and extras? Where did this idea that the chart only reflects box sales come from?
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Samuel_Tow is the only poster that makes me want to punch him in the head more often when I'm agreeing with him than when I'm disagreeing with him.
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I see on the Consolidated Fact excel sheet where NC list sales by game title. CoH in the 3rd quarter did less than the 2nd but not by much really. If that's the sheet you're going by, I don't know if the chart was necessary. COH is above Guild Wars and below AION (which just released last year) and naturally below Lineage I and II
City of Heroes / City of Villains
1Q 6,837
2Q 6,673
3Q 5,471
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18,981
(Unit : KR Mn Won)
Which numbers were used to make the chart?...The ones listed above from the excel sheet right?