So how is CoH REALLY doing? (An answer)
By
Acemace,
Posted on: 2010-01-09 13:31 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
Quote:
You're off by a factor of 10. I rarely saw more than 30 or so instances of any zone. I'm sure it's still tragic though. Enjoy.|
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
CO wasn't able to retain a significant number of players. They went from having between 250-300 shards for each zone...
|
Jer
Do we know if there will be some PAX 2010 love? The devs sure have a way of ignoring their east coast subscribers by not going to any ComiC Con/GamingCon anywhere east of Texas...
I plan on going with the BF if they go to PAX 2010 -Boston. I know several MMO players that don't even know this game and the ones that do refuse to play this game!
http://s305.photobucket.com/albums/n...stumes%202011/
Quote:
There is a general correlative trend that you can see in the chart with Access and Overall Revenue. Without access to the amount of box sales, subscription renewal types and other minutiae this will always be an exercise in dart board prognostication. |
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
The data clearly shows there has not been a "catastrophic" or dramatic drop in CoX subscriptions or activities. But the actual magnitude of the general trend in specific terms has a lot of margin for error.
|
Also, dramatic and catastrophic are not mutual. A critical threshold that is breached gradually can still be catastrophic. Not that I think CoX is anywhere close to a catastrophic threshold from the numbers I've seen.
Quote:
I see it as more of a comedy than a tragedy |
Originally Posted by SeedyXX
You're off by a factor of 10. I rarely saw more than 30 or so instances of any zone. I'm sure it's still tragic though. Enjoy.
|
@Golden Girl
City of Heroes comics and artwork
Quote:
Because I can't say this is false often enough, this is false. I can deduce a lot more about the state of the game from the revenue numbers than I can from the access numbers. The combination of the two is better, but if I could only have one, it would be the revenue numbers.|
Originally Posted by Tank_Washington
Sales tell only part of the picture regarding the games status, which, for the umpteenth time, is probably behind the reasoning which led to the restricted access.
|
The reason is that the access numbers can prove dramatic increasing interest in the game. The revenue numbers can disprove dramatic decreasing interest in the game. I would rather have the information to prove the latter than the former.
Also, access numbers are more of a trailing indicator, revenue is a bit more of a leading indicator, factoring out oscillations.
Finally, revenue forms the direct basis for NCSoft continuing to develop the game.
If I had something to hide, I would hide the breakout in revenue numbers, not the access numbers. So if this is a conspiracy, its a conspiracy of the stupid.
[Guide to Defense] [Scrapper Secondaries Comparison] [Archetype Popularity Analysis]
In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
(Please support the best webcomic about a cosmic universal realignment by impaired angelic interference resulting in identity crisis angst. Or I release the pigmy water thieves.)
Quote:
Is there any other kind?
|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
So if this is a conspiracy, its a conspiracy of the stupid.
|
There are no words for what this community, and the friends I have made here mean to me. Please know that I care for all of you, yes, even you. If you Twitter, I'm MrThan. If you're Unleashed, I'm dumps. I'll try and get registered on the Titan Forums as well. Peace, and thanks for the best nine years anyone could ever ask for.
Quote:
A Nemesis plot?
|
Originally Posted by DumpleBerry
Is there any other kind?
|
@Golden Girl
City of Heroes comics and artwork
Quote:
First, nicely done.|
Originally Posted by TonyV
I keep seeing posts about how CoH is hemorrhaging subscribers. I keep seeing replies about how no, it's not. Posts about how the city is dead. Posts about how no, people are in instanced missions. So it got me to thinking about how we can tell how CoH is really doing, something objective to look at and judge.
*snip some quality text* |
Second: On that chart, it'd be nice to see time markers for the following games:
Age of Conan
Warhammer
Aion
The first two would be nice to see for the PVP-focused crews looking for when/where there might have been fission for another game; and Aion's interesting in particular because it's an NCSoft product that, while not directly competing with COH, DOES have a natural selling point WITH its playerbase due to company affiliation.
Anyway, well written, and good points. I think the 10% drop, when considering Aion as well, does show some perspective that most people would be too quick to iron over.
@TURGENEV - Freedom Server / IRON / B.A.N.E / HORDE
Turg Fiction: Ghost in the Machine Acts III & IV coming 2012!
Turg Fiction: IX is now LIVE on Architect Entertainment!
Quote:
Yes, I did assume the average exchange rate for the period of the conversion. If you plug in the numbers assuming they're reporting based on the exchange rate at the time of the report, you'll get almost the exact same "shape" and scale of the bars, with the exact numbers on the y-axis slightly different.|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
That doesn't match the calculations I maintain. Hmm, lets see.
Ah, its the exchange rate. You're assuming the average exchange rate for the period in your conversion. I don't believe that is correct. |
In case anyone is morbidly curious, the methodology for deriving the adjusted sales numbers follows:
Since the sales numbers are reported by quarter, I needed an average daily exchange rate for the quarter. I found that most sites report daily exchange rates, not average quarterly exchange rates, and most sites don't have exchange rate data older than a few years.
The source I used for exchange rate data was the Pacific Exchange Rate Service. It provides the exchange rate all the way back, and it gave it to me in a nice monthly average so that I don't have to calculate the average day-by-day.
So what I did to convert the average for a month to the average for a quarter was to multiply the average monthly rate by the number of days in the month, then add that to the same calculation for the following two months, then divide by the number of days in the quarter.
For example, the average monthly exchange rates in Q1 2008 were:
January 2008: 942.75 KRW/USD
February 2008: 944.05 KRW/USD
March 2008: 981.08 KRW/USD
Multiplying each of those by the number of days in their respective months gave me:
January 2008: 942.75 * 31 = 29225.25
February 2008: 944.05 * 29 = 27377.45
March 2008: 981.08 * 31 = 30413.48
The sum of those three is 87016.18, which I divided by the number of days in the entire quarter (91) to arrive at an average daily exchange rate for the quarter of 956.221758. (I rounded off to six places.)
In Q1 2008, sales for City of Heroes were reported as 5,416,000,000 KRW. A basic assumption is that sales were more-or-less spread out evenly throughout the quarter. (Yes, it's true that that assumption may be incorrect, but absent any evidence to the contrary or any scientific way to know how sales were actually spread out, I believe the assumption to be valid enough for our purposes.) Thus for Q1 2008, the sales, in USD, are estimated to be around $5,663,958.13, which in turns gets plotted on the sales chart as ~5.66, since the Y-axis is in units of millions of USD.
We've been saving Paragon City for eight and a half years. It's time to do it one more time.
(If you love this game as much as I do, please read that post.)
Quote:
Visually to a degree, but that's somewhat illusory. For example, in adjusted dollar terms (using the method I use, which is exchange rate at reporting date, not averaged exchange rate during the period, although there are similar discorrelations with the alternate method) there is a sizable drop in revenue in Q2 '06 with no corresponding drop in access numbers. Then, while there is a correlation between the drop in access in Q4 '06 and revenue, revenue bounces back in Q1 '07 but access doesn't start bouncing back until Q2 '07. Revenue drops much faster than access from Q3 '07 to Q1 '08. There is some correlation, but there are significant offsets in some quarters and in others there is correlation in direction but disproportionate changes overall.|
Originally Posted by PumBumbler
There is a general correlative trend that you can see in the chart with Access and Overall Revenue.
|
*If* we believe the numbers are at least fairly representative, then the answer to the question some people have asked: is it possible we bounced back after the drop in subscriptions (really, access) in Q3 '08, is yes, we did: to practically Q2 '08 numbers. We've since dropped back down to nearly the same levels as Q3 '08.
Could the increase in revenue in Q4 '08 - Q2 '09 be due to booster packs? Well, its a total increase for the three quarters of over two million dollars in revenue. If we assume $10 per microtransaction on average, and we assume we have somewhere in the neighborhood of 100,000 subscribers plus or minus, then that means on average every single player bought at least two booster packs in those three quarters. I suppose that's possible, but it seems unlikely to me (From October 2008 to June 2009 I think only the Magic pack was released).
In any case, this is my version of the revenue vs access numbers (click for larger version):
[Guide to Defense] [Scrapper Secondaries Comparison] [Archetype Popularity Analysis]
In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
(Please support the best webcomic about a cosmic universal realignment by impaired angelic interference resulting in identity crisis angst. Or I release the pigmy water thieves.)
I think there is something to be said for subscription numbers taking prescidence over sales because many gamers may buy a copy only to decide the game isn't fun enough to justify the ongoing (and much larger) cost of maintaining the account.
I don't have numbers. This post is much more anecdotal and, therefore, subjective.
And there are a number of variables that account for a difference between the numbers of copies sold/subscribers and how the gameplay "feels" (something I'll try to explain when describing the variables). First, it's possible to have a relatively high concentration of subscribers populating a few servers, leaving the rest of them comparatively deserted. And when someone charges his/her primary server s/he will most likely drag a number of friends along - especially is the person in question in a more active player. But the possibility also exists that there are pleanty of subscribers who have characters on Infin, but they aren't playing those characters.
The second reason things seem a bit desolate could be that people who do subscribe simply aren't playing as much. Due to the economy they may have been compelled to put in more overtime or find a second job, and they just don't have as much leisure in thier week.
I'm also guessing that two possibilities are also working in tandem with some of the discussions that have appeared here on the boards. Players who stalwartly insist on getting their CoX may have less time to play, and they want to get the most out of the time they spend logged into the game; as a result, they've sought out the servers that are enjoying higher populations to find teams quickly to enjoy the multiplayer aspect of an MMORPG. Players who are active on the boards have been asking which servers are more populated (perhaps having noticed a decline in their own server's activity) so they can go there instead.
And if anyone could point the way for me, I would appreciate it: I'm not trying to jump ship, but this rat would like to diversify his cheese equity and place some in a more seaworthy vessel (how's that for mixing metaphors?).
How does that data reflect the changeover in subscription cards from game-specific to the more generic ncsoft time-cards?
@Texarkana
@Thexder
Quote:
There are some differences; in particular the reported date conversion seems to match the general trends of the access numbers somewhat better than the average value conversion method for the Q4 '07 - Q2 '08 period. It also appears to better correlate with the substantial Q3 '08 drop in access numbers.|
Originally Posted by TonyV
Yes, I did assume the average exchange rate for the period of the conversion. If you plug in the numbers assuming they're reporting based on the exchange rate at the time of the report, you'll get almost the exact same "shape" and scale of the bars, with the exact numbers on the y-axis slightly different.
|
Quote:
| The source I used for exchange rate data was the Pacific Exchange Rate Service. It provides the exchange rate all the way back, and it gave it to me in a nice monthly average so that I don't have to calculate the average day-by-day. |
[Guide to Defense] [Scrapper Secondaries Comparison] [Archetype Popularity Analysis]
In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
(Please support the best webcomic about a cosmic universal realignment by impaired angelic interference resulting in identity crisis angst. Or I release the pigmy water thieves.)
Quote:
No I'm not, I was watching the number of shards since the head start just to get an idea just how popular the game was going to be, and continued to watch them with amusement once the "infamous" opening day "nerf" to see if all the b**ching was just nerdrage or if they were really going to quit. I figured the complaints were mostly just whining but instead I was surprised to see that people did indeed quit in droves.|
Originally Posted by SeedyXX
You're off by a factor of 10. I rarely saw more than 30 or so instances of any zone. I'm sure it's still tragic though. Enjoy.
Jer |
But feel free to disagree with what I saw. I'll still be playing CO off and on for as long as it lasts. I just hope it's more than a year cuz I don't want to feel that my lifetime sub was a waste of money.
Quote:
K Arcana... you know I love you but that graph is really depressing to look at.|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
In any case, this is my version of the revenue vs access numbers (click for larger version):
|
So, I fixed it for you.
Quote:
The axis labels showing revenue moves from 4M - 8M, while the access axis (heh) starts from zero, exaggerating the revenue differences. Not a big deal.|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Visually to a degree, but that's somewhat illusory. For example, in adjusted dollar terms (using the method I use, which is exchange rate at reporting date, not averaged exchange rate during the period, although there are similar discorrelations with the alternate method) there is a sizable drop in revenue in Q2 '06 with no corresponding drop in access numbers. Then, while there is a correlation between the drop in access in Q4 '06 and revenue, revenue bounces back in Q1 '07 but access doesn't start bouncing back until Q2 '07. Revenue drops much faster than access from Q3 '07 to Q1 '08. There is some correlation, but there are significant offsets in some quarters and in others there is correlation in direction but disproportionate changes overall.
*If* we believe the numbers are at least fairly representative, then the answer to the question some people have asked: is it possible we bounced back after the drop in subscriptions (really, access) in Q3 '08, is yes, we did: to practically Q2 '08 numbers. We've since dropped back down to nearly the same levels as Q3 '08. Could the increase in revenue in Q4 '08 - Q2 '09 be due to booster packs? Well, its a total increase for the three quarters of over two million dollars in revenue. If we assume $10 per microtransaction on average, and we assume we have somewhere in the neighborhood of 100,000 subscribers plus or minus, then that means on average every single player bought at least two booster packs in those three quarters. I suppose that's possible, but it seems unlikely to me (From October 2008 to June 2009 I think only the Magic pack was released). In any case, this is my version of the revenue vs access numbers (click for larger version): |
Again, it is difficult to posit the exact nature of subscription revenue when the total revenue is given only. Looking at 06 Q2-Q4 inclusive, it is difficult to say whether there was a drop in interest and thus revenue or that revenue was deferred deliberately by the company or by proxy.
I could not find a direct reason for the sharp increase in Q3 06, but neither could I see an increase in revenue for Q4 06, when the boxed set for GvE showed up in Walmart. Given that boxed set sales should have increased revenue for the quarter, I can only guess that the revenue was booked for the quarter previous when the title was available for the purchasers at Walmart to order.
However, expectations leading up the launch of GvE edition could have suppressed income (aka the Osborne effect.) While this is entirely speculative, I cannot find a direct reason for the drop in income, but the Access numbers may not be as tightly coupled to incoming revenue and therefore may be modulated over the preceding and following quarters.
Also, the manner in which the subscriptions are booked can have an effect on revenue. I'm not sure when exactly the various promotions were introduced, but the bonus 2 months for year long subscriptions were started before the loyalty program was introduced. This type of program itself can cause people to put off renewing or delaying payment in anticipation of the promotion, and a 2 month bonus can push stated income a Quarter forward.
It's hard to see exactly what caused the drop and spike in 06 without looking back at the microcosm in 2006 but over the 3 quarters the access numbers were still working together on average.
From a management perspective, monetizing your installed base is one of the low-hanging fruits to pursue. Between Oct 08 to June 09, not only was the Magic Pack released, but we also had the Mac Special Edition and the Architect Edition. Just remember that the AE Edition is a boxed edition, which may skew numbers more heavily than regular booster packs.
While there are no access numbers released for that time period, anecdotally from all the greybeards complaining about AE babies and the related chatter that had appeared throughout, it did seem like a significant amount of AE Edition boxes were sold.*
The Mac special edition may not have captured a significant amount of new players, I'm pretty sure every CoX player who wanted to support the Mac bought a copy just to 'represent.' The bonuses for buying it were just gravy.
*As to why AE boxed sets haven't led to a surge in subscriptions, I think one only needs to look to that huge giant spike when CoV was introduced to tell the story. While the boxed sales of CoV loom large in Q4 05, the subscription sales following that basically showed no gain. I believe that AE Edition is working the same way.
Normally you would think that selling a big number of boxes (to mostly new customers) would lead to a bump in subscriptions (and thus revenue going forward). However, CoV also coincided with the dreaded Enhancement Diversification. I believe the incoming set of new players was also coupled with the outgoing set of PO'd players due to nerfs. It would be very strange to presume that all of the people who bought CoV were existing CoH players...that would be the alternative explanation to why that spike happened without any increase in revenue following.
Anyhow, I think the AE Edition subs were more than offset by the AE 'nerfs' (some of which were entirely needed) enough to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Of course, none of this is backed up by hard evidence other than my gut feeling.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by TonyV
I keep seeing posts about how CoH is hemorrhaging subscribers. I keep seeing replies about how no, it's not. Posts about how the city is dead. Posts about how no, people are in instanced missions. So it got me to thinking about how we can tell how CoH is really doing, something objective to look at and judge.
As most of you know, NCsoft stopped publishing subscriber numbers a while back. But they do still publish their sales in their quarterly earnings statements. Really, these numbers are a lot more important than subscriber numbers. After all, a game can be wildly successful with a low subscriber base, or wildly unprofitable with a high one. Ultimately, "Is this making us money?" is probably the best judge of whether a company will continue to invest in a game. SO... With no further ado, here is your chart. Yes, it's small and hard to read. Click on it to see the full-sized version.  Note that I've put labels across the top indicating when each issue release has it, as well as a few of the competitors (WoW: Burning Crusade, WoW: Wrath of the Lich King, and Champions Online). Here's my assessment, for your consideration. Are there fewer people playing City of Heroes? Yes, there are indeed. Not a huge number, though. If you roughly equate sales with subscribers, the game is off average by around 10% right now. Is the game hemorrhaging subscribers? No, not by a long shot. There was a lull around the end of 2007 during which sales were actually lower than they are today. Then over the course of the next year, the game consistently posted sales numbers well above average. Did Champions Online make a dent in City of Heroes? Um... Maybe. It's hard to tell, because there hasn't really been enough time to say for sure. It had only been out for a month when NCsoft's most recent numbers were posted. Like I said, the game's numbers are off by around 10%, which I'd consider statistically significant. However, it's impossible to say yet how many of those people are just trying out something novel and will return. After all, look at the HUGE spike in Q4 2005, which City of Villains are released, followed by the more-or-less return to normalcy. At any rate, even if it did make a dent, I really wouldn't consider 10% much of one, at least not yet. Had CO been a raving success, it could have potentially split the market in two and CoH could have taken around a 50% hit, or even worse. As it is, appearances are that people did indeed go over to check it out. What will be interesting is how many end up staying. What about Going Rogue? Let me get out my crystal ball... Yes, it's getting clearer now... Oh wait, it's gone again. Seriously, as you can see from the chart, CoV give the game a HUGE spike in sales. That one is an outlier, because as I'm sure someone will point out, sales != subscribers, and as I recall, CoH didn't quite double in subscribers when CoV was released (although it did get a bump that lasted over a year). If the same holds true for Going Rogue, the suits at NCsoft are going to be very happy when Going Rogue hits the streets. That quarter's numbers will go through the roof. Within an issue after the hoopla settles down, things will return to status quo. Okay fanboi, so what's disappointing about the game? If I were a suit at NCsoft, I'd be a bit irritated that the Super Booster packs aren't bringing in any significant sales. I mean, they did okaaaay, but after the first one, total sales actually dropped quarter-by-quarter, even with one per quarter being pushed out the door. Now, one could read this as, "But maybe the Super Booster packs were what kept sales a bit above average. Without those, the game would have tanked!" Enh, maybe. I just don't think so, but it's a valid (if cynical) take on the data. Ditto character slots, server transfers, and all the other mini-transactions in the game now. "That's bogus, I totally disagree!" Hey, that's your prerogative. You can look at the data just as I can and draw your own conclusions.  So in conclusion as Tony sees it... City of Heroes is indeed having an off quarter, probably two once we see the numbers for Q4 2009. Champions Online probably made a dent, but CoH withstood it pretty well. Other competitors (e.g. the 800-pound MMO gorilla) have virtually no affect on CoH. The game is NOT dying, not by any stretch of the imagination. (Sorry, "DOOOOM!" sayers.) There's good precedent for the numbers coming from even lower than they are now back to having strong sales. The fact that we have a major expansion and client update in the works is very encouraging. Or as my Magic 8-Ball says: "Ask again later..." *shake* "Outlook good." |
Very well done.
Need help making your own CoH comics or read other's comics at cohcomicindex.com
www.jkcomics.com for Justice-Knights comics series and more!
Storylines:
Introductions, Obey,
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Visually to a degree, but that's somewhat illusory. For example, in adjusted dollar terms (using the method I use, which is exchange rate at reporting date, not averaged exchange rate during the period, although there are similar discorrelations with the alternate method) there is a sizable drop in revenue in Q2 '06 with no corresponding drop in access numbers. Then, while there is a correlation between the drop in access in Q4 '06 and revenue, revenue bounces back in Q1 '07 but access doesn't start bouncing back until Q2 '07. Revenue drops much faster than access from Q3 '07 to Q1 '08. There is some correlation, but there are significant offsets in some quarters and in others there is correlation in direction but disproportionate changes overall.
*If* we believe the numbers are at least fairly representative, then the answer to the question some people have asked: is it possible we bounced back after the drop in subscriptions (really, access) in Q3 '08, is yes, we did: to practically Q2 '08 numbers. We've since dropped back down to nearly the same levels as Q3 '08. Could the increase in revenue in Q4 '08 - Q2 '09 be due to booster packs? Well, its a total increase for the three quarters of over two million dollars in revenue. If we assume $10 per microtransaction on average, and we assume we have somewhere in the neighborhood of 100,000 subscribers plus or minus, then that means on average every single player bought at least two booster packs in those three quarters. I suppose that's possible, but it seems unlikely to me (From October 2008 to June 2009 I think only the Magic pack was released). In any case, this is my version of the revenue vs access numbers (click for larger version): |
Coul it have been from CoH changing hands and completely left Cryptic? I thought that was right before the booster packs started so it could be related here...
Need help making your own CoH comics or read other's comics at cohcomicindex.com
www.jkcomics.com for Justice-Knights comics series and more!
Storylines:
Introductions, Obey,
Funnily enough, I was doing some of the same analysis!
Here's a link to the spreadsheet I was working from.
I was using end-of-period exchange rates to convert to $US (well, the exchange rate on the 28th of the last month of the quarter), which as Arcana says its own issues.
Anyway, I'll work up a blog on my opinion on how things are going and then people can tell me how wrong I am. :-)
Arcana - active player subscriptions (often incorrectly referred to as "active players", which ignores dual accounts or players who might be paying but not active) might not be as useful as title revenue, but it has become the de facto measure of how a title is performing.
Also, CoH/V is budgeted to achieve 25 000 M Won in 2009. It appears on track to hit that target.
Hmmmm, one can only hope that GR will not accompany a large amount of nerfs, then. And from what we know of what that is giving us, I don't know what they would nerf. So a better trend, there, perhaps?
Guide: Tanking, Wall of Fire Style (Updated for I19!), and the Four Rules of Tanking
Story Arc: Belated Justice, #88003
Synopsis: Explore the fine line between justice and vengeance as you help a hero of Talos Island bring his friend's murderer to justice.
Grey Pilgrim: Fire/Fire Tanker (50), Victory
Oh, they'll probably nerf <your favorite character> because it's totally OP.
Elsegame: Champions Online: @BellaStrega ||| Battle.net: Ashleigh#1834 ||| Bioware Social Network: BellaStrega ||| EA Origin: Bella_Strega ||| Steam: BellaStrega ||| The first Guild Wars: Kali Magdalene ||| The Secret World: BelleStarr (Arcadia)
Quote:
Not my favorite character! I quit!! |
Originally Posted by KaliMagdalene
Oh, they'll probably nerf <your favorite character> because it's totally OP.
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by PRAF68_EU
Dispari has more than enough credability, and certainly doesn't need to borrow any from you.
|
Quote:
It'll probably only prevent <your favorite tactics>, and leave everything else untouched. You'll be fine!
|
Originally Posted by Dispari
Not my favorite character! I quit!!
|
Elsegame: Champions Online: @BellaStrega ||| Battle.net: Ashleigh#1834 ||| Bioware Social Network: BellaStrega ||| EA Origin: Bella_Strega ||| Steam: BellaStrega ||| The first Guild Wars: Kali Magdalene ||| The Secret World: BelleStarr (Arcadia)
Quote:
That's why i have <alternate tactics and build that was tested away from other players for a short while and filed away for when the current build was nerfed>. Plus new shiny stuff to distract me.
|
Originally Posted by KaliMagdalene
It'll probably only prevent <your favorite tactics>, and leave everything else untouched. You'll be fine!
|
Dr. Todt's theme.
i make stuff...
There are no words for what this community, and the friends I have made here mean to me. Please know that I care for all of you, yes, even you. If you Twitter, I'm MrThan. If you're Unleashed, I'm dumps. I'll try and get registered on the Titan Forums as well. Peace, and thanks for the best nine years anyone could ever ask for.