City of Heroes: Live Forum Archive

So how is CoH REALLY doing? (An answer)

Acemace

By Acemace,
Posted on: 2010-01-09 13:31 in CoH and CoV General Discussions

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof_Backfire View Post
I'm not surprised that subs are down at the moment, honestly. It's been a while since a major content infusion, and a lot of people are trying out new stuff and waiting for Going Rogue. Even I haven't been playing much lately.
And just because people aren't playing as frequently doesn't mean they deactivated their subs.

 

Posted

Something I think marketing is full of phailure with is this... If people dont here anything about Going Rogue... as people have not heard anything... people wont buy it.

I am still telling GAMERS about City of Heroes, they have NEVER HEARD OF IT...
NEVER HEARD OF IT IN 5 YEARS...

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfect_Pain View Post
Something I think marketing is full of phailure with is this... If people dont here anything about Going Rogue... as people have not heard anything... people wont buy it.

I am still telling GAMERS about City of Heroes, they have NEVER HEARD OF IT...
NEVER HEARD OF IT IN 5 YEARS...
Heh, i have heard of "gamers" who never heard of beyond good and evil, okami or psychonauts. just because someone plays games doesnt mean they are informed gamers or people who like good games. That said, they never heard of it? it advertised exrensively in egm and pc gamer during launch and during cov's launch, won awards in pc gamer, was featured positively in several mmo episodes of x-play, had a strong advertising presence earlier this year on kotaku(a very popular gaming blog), penny arcade, and the more mmo-centric /gu comics. also almost every issue has been featured on kotaku since i started going there regularly last year. so while i'd love to see more press for coh, and i suspect we will during gr, if they never heard of the game, then they might not be particularly easy to reach with conventional advertising methods.

 

Posted

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Originally Posted by Tank_Washington View Post
Since double posts are the rage tonight..
Hardly. Different OP; F_P posted this in the other thread, not TonyV. And well over an hour after this OP was posted.

 

Posted

if you walk into your local best buy and stand in the games section, or local computer store... and mention CoX people are like "wha?".

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Obsidius View Post
Hardly. Different OP; F_P posted this in the other thread, not TonyV. And well over an hour after this OP was posted.
Tank might be confused because I didn't try to take credit for the graph. I clearly said it was made by TonyV.

 

Posted

if i stand in a gamestop and mention okami or beyond good and evil, same deal(and i do, a lot), you arent going to get everyone no matter what even if the game is amazing. its frustrating that crap games get popular, but life is not nor will it ever be fair. really outside of wow or maybe, MAYBE aion, are people particularly informed about mmos? can i get a granado espada chat started up? im betting right now i could get the same reaction on chamions, conan or warhammer, to joe sixpack, its pretty much wow or nothing, maybe modern warfare 2 if they misunderstand what a mmo is.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfect_Pain View Post
if you walk into your local best buy and stand in the games section, or local computer store... and mention CoX people are like "wha?".
While I'm not disagreeing that we could use more advertising, I'd like to point out I can only think of maybe 6-10 MMO's that I'm aware of. I have no idea what names the others go by, tho I'm sure more exist.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfect_Pain View Post
if you walk into your local best buy and stand in the games section, or local computer store... and mention CoX people are like "wha?".

I tried mentioning how I love my CoX in the BestBuy down the road. How I play with CoX sometimes late into the night, and asked if any of the clerks wanted to see a demonstration (you know a buddy code).
"wha?" wasn't the reaction.





 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tank_Washington View Post
But in making your graph you believe that sales trump subscription numbers, which is a fallacy.
But the opposite is equally a fallacy.

The two are interrelated.


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Posted

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Originally Posted by TonyV View Post
Can we get a chart that goes from Q1 '06 and after (to elliminate the distortion caused by CoV's release)? It would make fluctuations a bit more obvious, I should think.

[Edit]
Nevermind that. I did some amateur Paint editing to take out the first part of the graph. Then, I made the scale go from 4000 to 8000. The following graph plays up the irregularities, and makes the image a bit less "average."

Also, I added a red horizontal line to compare where we are "now" to past sales. As was stated, '07 was lower, but almost negligibly so.



If we assume for a moment that this data roughly reflects subscriptions (dubious at best) then the real issue is found entirely in the last 4 bars. It seems like a good 15-20% loss. That would, indeed, contribute to the feelings that abound on the forums.
[/Edit]


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thirty_Seven View Post
Can we get a chart that goes from Q1 '06 and after (to elliminate the distortion caused by CoV's release)? It would make fluctuations a bit more obvious, I should think.

[Edit]
Nevermind that. I did some amateur Paint editing to take out the first part of the graph. Then, I made the scale go from 4000 to 8000. The following graph plays up the irregularities, and makes the image a bit less "average."

Also, I added a red horizontal line to compare where we are "now" to past sales. As was stated, '07 was lower, but almost negligibly so.



If we assume for a moment that this data roughly reflects subscriptions (dubious at best) then the real issue is found entirely in the last 4 bars. It seems like a good 30-40% loss. That would, indeed, contribute to the feelings that abound on the forums.
[/Edit]
Your baseline is 4000 and not 0 to exaggerate the differences? If so and your max scale is 8000, don't you mean it is fluctuating between 15-20% then?

PS. the giant column isn't causing a distortion per se, it's just making the scale harder to interpret if you are trying to compare the other numbers.

PPS. It's kinda late and I have slept for about 22 hours or so, but since these are income statements, how are subscription fees being accounted for? Is the entire fee being factored at once or is it amortized over the life of the sub? Things like the loyalty subs bonuses would affect the numbers on a quarterly basis without know what the paying population is. Not sure what the Korean accounting rules are like and I'm too tired to dig through the statements.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Acemace View Post
I tried mentioning how I love my CoX in the BestBuy down the road. How I play with CoX sometimes late into the night, and asked if any of the clerks wanted to see a demonstration (you know a buddy code).
"wha?" wasn't the reaction.
/thread

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by PumBumbler View Post
Your baseline is 4000 and not 0 to exaggerate the differences?
Yes, I said that above the graph.

Quote:
If so and your max scale is 8000, don't you mean it is fluctuating between 15-20% then?
Doing the math based on guesstimates of the numbers... yes, yes I do mean that. Darn math .

Quote:
PS. the giant column isn't causing a distortion per se, it's just making the scale harder to interpret if you are trying to compare the other numbers.
Well, that seems to be a bit of semantics to me. Don't distortions obscure things? And aren't we trying to see where we sit now, versus the past?

Also, I didn't mean to imply that TonyV was trying to mislead anyone. Just that if our aim is to see "now," it would seem to me that CoV would get in the way of that.


 

Posted

OK then, here's a zeroed graph knocking down the big column, so the differences don't look like d00m.



I purpled out the Q1 statements more to see if there is any seasonal trending to the revenue model and the red underline shows the statistical lows that CoX has endured over the years.

From what I can see, it's as low as it has been previously but nothing out of the recent ordinary. If the revenue were to fall from here it could be a new low point, but that's idle speculation. Given that every other game has pretty much dumped their payload except the Star Wars and Star Trek MMOs to be launched, I doubt that the CoX numbers will go significantly lower before GR is launched.

As well, there are also the unannounced issues that we haven't heard about yet either.

As far as CO is concerned, it does look like a significant amount of people left in order to check out the other game, but not enough to sink CoX. It appears that the recent issues were good enough to start digging CoX out of the trough that they were in from about Q4 07, but CO put CoX back down again.

If GR is as good as it looks, CoX may claw back that lost percentage from CO and more, since CoX will have the added advantage of new and existing content as well as a new shiny graphical engine to pull CO players who may never have tried CoX.

*Edit. Also without knowing CO's threshold for profitability, there is also the possibility that CO may eventually fail and lead to a significant amount of subscribers coming back as well.

*Another Edit. Revenue is about 20-25M USD per year, which means they could support 60-80 staff rather comfortably and still be profitable, so I doubt there's anything to worry about right now.

 

Posted

Thanks for this analysis. I've been through this conversation (with less analysis) a few months ago, but often people will believe what they want to believe (in this case that CO meant doom for CoH).

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Posted

Thanks for the updated graph, Pum.


 

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Wait a minute...

Fact, figures, graphs... an actual business presentation that satisfies the question without resorting to the usual banter about how so-and-so couldn't get enough people to complete Positron's Task Force, or how people are resorting to role-playing fantasies that go beyond the "Rated-T-for-Teens" moniker, or how not bringing back the Cathederal of Pain trial will somehow spell D00M for the MMO?

I LIKE IT!

Admins please push-pin this thread so people can see how these kinds of discussions SHOULD be done!

And Tony, my man, THANK YOU for actually answering the question!

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfect_Pain View Post
Something I think marketing is full of phailure with is this... If people dont here anything about Going Rogue... as people have not heard anything... people wont buy it.
In all fairness, people *can't* buy it. It's not for sale yet. I'm sure we'll see an advertising push sometime between now and when it does go on sale. How much of a push we'll have to wait and see. I too am disappointed that with all of the big superhero stuff going on in popular culture (Heroes on tv, Superman, Batman, Iron Man movies, that "Who Wants to be a Superhero" tv show, etc) CoH doesn't try for any mainstream advertising. I'm sure it would be expensive, but it might be worthwhile.

Avatar: "Cheeky Jack O Lantern" by dimarie

 

Posted

Nice job with the chart, Tony. I thought about doing that with my Chart of COH Metrics after NCsoft stopped releasing sub numbers, but I didn't because the numbers don't take inflation into account. As others have pointed, the Won has fluctuated a lot, and I don't consider it a reliable indicator. If we could get the numbers normalized, that would tells us a lot more.

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leandro View Post
Nice job with the chart, Tony. I thought about doing that with my Chart of COH Metrics after NCsoft stopped releasing sub numbers, but I didn't because the numbers don't take inflation into account. As others have pointed, the Won has fluctuated a lot, and I don't consider it a reliable indicator. If we could get the numbers normalized, that would tells us a lot more.
Way, way, too reasonable and accurate.

But don't bother, just conclude the game's a perpetual subscription juggernaut with mythological anti-sub loss properties, and you'll find a much more friendly atmosphere in here.


Ponies and rainbows!

.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tank_Washington View Post
Way, way, too reasonable and accurate.

But don't bother, just conclude the game's a perpetual subscription juggernaut with mythological anti-sub loss properties, and you'll find a much more friendly atmosphere in here.


Ponies and rainbows!
I didn't see anyone calling the game an unkillable juggernaut, just pointing out that the game may be near a low point in its career but is still far within the realm of sustainability.

On the other hand, I DO see someone claiming that the game is on its last leg, just waiting for that last straw to take it down, despite the fact that it's been trucking along steadily for nearly six years now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PRAF68_EU View Post
Dispari has more than enough credability, and certainly doesn't need to borrow any from you.

 

Posted

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Originally Posted by KaliMagdalene View Post
Thanks for this analysis. I've been through this conversation (with less analysis) a few months ago, but often people will believe what they want to believe (in this case that CO meant doom for CoH).
Look. CO was never going to mean doom for COX. Even if CO became another WOW...it wouldn't have killed this game.

MMOs do not kill other MMOs. MMOs kill themselves with poor design choices, poor support and a lack of understanding of their target audience.

Anyone arguing that to the contrary is either delusional, bitter or childish.

I believe that the biggest downer for this game was the 15 developer drought we were forced to go through where 'they'(whoever the hell they were...) chopped the dev team and scaled back support for the game shortly after the launch of COV. That was a singularly asinine move that I truly believe hurt this game's progress more than anything else.

I sincerely hope that's never repeated again and that GR doesn't see a similar thing happen.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Psyonico View Post
can I have just a little bit of Doom?

Sure.


Would you like the 'D', an 'o' or an 'm'?

I would recommend the 'D' as it is capitalised so makes you think you are getting better value.