So how is CoH REALLY doing? (An answer)

I keep seeing posts about how CoH is hemorrhaging subscribers. I keep seeing replies about how no, it's not. Posts about how the city is dead. Posts about how no, people are in instanced missions. So it got me to thinking about how we can tell how CoH is really doing, something objective to look at and judge.

As most of you know, NCsoft stopped publishing subscriber numbers a while back. But they do still publish their sales in their quarterly earnings statements. Really, these numbers are a lot more important than subscriber numbers. After all, a game can be wildly successful with a low subscriber base, or wildly unprofitable with a high one. Ultimately, "Is this making us money?" is probably the best judge of whether a company will continue to invest in a game.

SO... With no further ado, here is your chart. Yes, it's small and hard to read. Click on it to see the full-sized version.



Note that I've put labels across the top indicating when each issue release has it, as well as a few of the competitors (WoW: Burning Crusade, WoW: Wrath of the Lich King, and Champions Online).

Here's my assessment, for your consideration.

Are there fewer people playing City of Heroes?

Yes, there are indeed. Not a huge number, though. If you roughly equate sales with subscribers, the game is off average by around 10% right now.

Is the game hemorrhaging subscribers?

No, not by a long shot. There was a lull around the end of 2007 during which sales were actually lower than they are today. Then over the course of the next year, the game consistently posted sales numbers well above average.

Did Champions Online make a dent in City of Heroes?

Um... Maybe. It's hard to tell, because there hasn't really been enough time to say for sure. It had only been out for a month when NCsoft's most recent numbers were posted.

Like I said, the game's numbers are off by around 10%, which I'd consider statistically significant. However, it's impossible to say yet how many of those people are just trying out something novel and will return. After all, look at the HUGE spike in Q4 2005, which City of Villains are released, followed by the more-or-less return to normalcy.

At any rate, even if it did make a dent, I really wouldn't consider 10% much of one, at least not yet. Had CO been a raving success, it could have potentially split the market in two and CoH could have taken around a 50% hit, or even worse. As it is, appearances are that people did indeed go over to check it out. What will be interesting is how many end up staying.

What about Going Rogue?

Let me get out my crystal ball... Yes, it's getting clearer now... Oh wait, it's gone again.

Seriously, as you can see from the chart, CoV give the game a HUGE spike in sales. That one is an outlier, because as I'm sure someone will point out, sales != subscribers, and as I recall, CoH didn't quite double in subscribers when CoV was released (although it did get a bump that lasted over a year).

If the same holds true for Going Rogue, the suits at NCsoft are going to be very happy when Going Rogue hits the streets. That quarter's numbers will go through the roof. Within an issue after the hoopla settles down, things will return to status quo.

Okay fanboi, so what's disappointing about the game?

If I were a suit at NCsoft, I'd be a bit irritated that the Super Booster packs aren't bringing in any significant sales. I mean, they did okaaaay, but after the first one, total sales actually dropped quarter-by-quarter, even with one per quarter being pushed out the door.

Now, one could read this as, "But maybe the Super Booster packs were what kept sales a bit above average. Without those, the game would have tanked!" Enh, maybe. I just don't think so, but it's a valid (if cynical) take on the data. Ditto character slots, server transfers, and all the other mini-transactions in the game now.

"That's bogus, I totally disagree!"

Hey, that's your prerogative. You can look at the data just as I can and draw your own conclusions.

So in conclusion as Tony sees it...

City of Heroes is indeed having an off quarter, probably two once we see the numbers for Q4 2009. Champions Online probably made a dent, but CoH withstood it pretty well. Other competitors (e.g. the 800-pound MMO gorilla) have virtually no affect on CoH.

The game is NOT dying, not by any stretch of the imagination. (Sorry, "DOOOOM!" sayers.) There's good precedent for the numbers coming from even lower than they are now back to having strong sales. The fact that we have a major expansion and client update in the works is very encouraging.

Or as my Magic 8-Ball says: "Ask again later..." *shake* "Outlook good."

A+ for having a post with real data and no DOOM.

I do not think CO made a dent. What happened is the 12 people who were unsatisfied with this game went over there with all their illusions of grandeur in believing that game would be this games successor... and now they are over there making fanboi posts.

Theres like 12 of them... in the sea of unsatisfied gamers. They are kinda cute.

I believe the things that hinder this game are not enough NEWS about upcoming expansions, and wheres the next free update? Question mark... and well... the economy in the US sucks right now.

TonyV,

Good job proving you have way too much time on your hands!

Seriously though, nice work with this. I like charts/graphs.

Click for Hot Sun Splitter Action

I think the economy probably significantly affected new game sales, but not so much subscription-based games. After all, 2009 was consistently above average for CoH, and it was right after the market tanked and the economy damn near collapsed at the end of 2008. Of course, there were the Super Booster pack releases, which may have helped, released one per quarter starting 2008 Q4, except 2009 Q1. It's hard to say, because the subscriber sales and SB sales are mixed together. If I had to guess, the subscribers stayed more-or-less equal through the recession, with SB sales supplementing sales.

Oh, one other thing I didn't note on the chart. The Mac Special Edition client was released January 7, 2009, and the Architect Edition on April 14, 2009. I'm a bit disppointed to say, but looking at sales, it looks like neither really boosted sales much. I was really hoping hard that Mac gamers would join in the fun in a sizeable number to encourage further development on the platform and maybe even a Linux release.

Interesting point about the mac, especially since a lot of pc players bought the mac pack for the costume set and free month. I'd have thought it would be higher. I do see a lot of players with valkyrie bits mixed in their costumes, so the view from the street was that a lot of people got either the full mac or the stand alone 10 dollar booster.

Take the Magic: The Gathering 'What Color Are You?' Quiz.

I thought this was going to be a Joey from "Friends" thread

The unpublished Q4 there may well be even lower, since we're currently competing with CO (luls), SWO, and some other MMO and non-MMO releases. But with GR about to come out, we should see another significant spike.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PRAF68_EU Dispari has more than enough credability, and certainly doesn't need to borrow any from you.

Good data gathering, but there is one thing you fail to consider: the effect of a fluctuating Korean won. A sometimes wildly fluctuating won for the past 18 months.

The data you have, all in won, is converted from US dollars, Euro, and pounds. For the much of the past 18 months, the won has been much weaker against the dollars, so fewer dollars coming in will look like just as many won. This most recent quarter - the "off" quarter - is a period where the won actually regained some strength.

To be practical, the graph needs to be normalized to a single conversion rate, otherwise you cannot make conclusions about subscriber numbers.

..the figures and what you have said seems to be on the lines of what i was thinking about roughly tbh.

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!

I mean, good job Tony!

Don't mind Tank, he's been calling the game doomed for years now.

Yet it keeps not ending. So far so good.

Tank Wash no fun...

I'm not surprised that subs are down at the moment, honestly. It's been a while since a major content infusion, and a lot of people are trying out new stuff and waiting for Going Rogue. Even I haven't been playing much lately.