Important System Improvements in Going Rogue


Adar_ICT

 

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Originally Posted by EvilGeko View Post
True story, a friend of mine and I used to work in a job where we regularly saw the types of financial instruments that did lead to the the mess we got into in 2009. I believed then, as now, that financial and economics literacy is a necessity. Unfortunately, as my friend pointed out, even if people know better they don't always act rationally when it comes to money.

The truth of that statement has stuck with me for years.
I was not familiar with credit default swaps prior to the economic detonation, but I was familiar with most of the derivative instruments they were ultimately layered on. I always assumed there was a safeguard against their doing what it was obvious they were doing, even though I should know better by now. In the risk analysis industry of which I am a technical participant, I've often described it as the "round to zero" error. Basically, 10% risk is a problem. 0.0000001% risk times 100,000,000 is still 10% risk, but that's also 0.00% risk times 10.00^8 which is zero. No problem.

People have been doing that for as long as risk analysis has existed. What's different today is that most risk analysts who make that mistake either dodge a bullet, or take a bullet for the error. But we can't make any single group of people take a 65 trillion dollar bullet, mores the pity.


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Posted

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Originally Posted by EvilGeko View Post
You're wrong and like many other naysayers will be proven wrong by the merger.

Prices will hit their equilibrium, marketeers will still make money as they always have, and everyone will have better access to goods.

Some prices will go up, some down. I imagine that heroes will have somewhere to sell all those pet recipes now, villains all that salvage that goes to waste. This will make lowbie characters on both sides money. Those that bother to post their stuff will do well. All will be right.

The fools who claimed that loot would ruin the game were wrong;

The idiots who claimed that side-switching would ruin the game were wrong;

The madmen who claimed flashbacks would ruin the game were wrong.

I've was for all these changes. Loot and Flashbacks have become beloved features and I'm sure that side-switching will as well. Strangely, I expect this market merger to simply fade into the consciousness of the game. Folks will come to believe that this is how the game always should have been. All will be right.

Hhhehehehe You said Statesman was wrong


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It's Neither it April 1st, nor is it snowing outside.


 

Posted

I'm not at all worried about what the market will do post-merger. In fact, if the prices skyrocket I'll be happy, as most of my characters sell a lot more than they buy. With my salvage and recipes my philosophy has been that if I don't want it, I'll put it on the market so that someone who does can have it.

As for the super secret RP reasons for the merger, who says it's entirely sinister. It seems to me that the Black Market would be a great way to keep tabs on all the super-powered denizens of the Rogue Isles without their knowledge.


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I am anxiously looking forward to GR for the ridiculous profits it will bring me. Even more so with a merged market.

Demand, meet Supply.


 

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Originally Posted by Bayani View Post
Hm. Guess it wasn't as difficult to merge them as it was believed during Pax East?
Well, we learned from power spectrum that "This requires a lot of work and will be difficult" does not translate to "we are never going to do this."


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I am back home now and late in finding out this news, so I will just go ahead and post my reaction. Hint: I am very happy rite nao!


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Originally Posted by Exodus_V View Post
Wont really matter unless supply goes up...sry but its been a wasteland on both sides as of late(my observation) on quite a few things
At least now people will be able play wherever they want and still supply the market.


 

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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
The problem here is that the two markets are actually extremely abstract conceptualizations. They present a single simplified interface to perform a lot of very conceptually different things. For example, you can "buy and sell" things that aren't tangible, and cannot, within the in-game canon, possibly be bought and sold. Inspirations, for example, are not "potions" in the in-game fiction. They are literally inspirations to higher performance. Inspirations changing hands at all is a very thinly engineered fiction of players ultimately exchanging some of their "influence" or "infamy" for some intangible benefit that will manifest itself as a sudden "author-induced" burst of performance for the fictional character. They are meta-entities that don't actually have *any* physicality within the in-game world. They cannot possibly be literally bought or sold, because they don't exist in the in-game world. They are really placeholders for the players not the characters.

Some enhancements are described as physical items, some are not. But its unclear and ill-defined what the players are even supposed to do with the ones that are physical. I don't myself presume that I'm carrying them all around with me. I presume they are somehow "used" to improve my character's performance. But things like Training Enhancements and Natural SOs are generally described as literal training. "Buying" them from a store or the markets represents the conceptual activity of exchanging inf for training. And its not even necessarily "an exchange ." It could be seen as a post-hoc decision that all along while you were earning that "inf" you were really expending time training yourself as you went along. In other words, rather than "earning inf" you were really "practicing to get better" and the use of inf to buy those enhancements is a retroactive decision.

All of these things are not consistent with a "market" that allows you to "buy" and "sell" them. *Some* things are, but the markets have to conceptually encompass all of them, and the only way to presume that is to presume that the markets themselves are a convenient fiction. We treat them like markets you buy and sell from, but that is a game mechanical dodge to prevent having to represent far more complex trading and training mechanics.

This means just because the only straight-forward way to conceptualize cross-faction execution is by a literal underground railroad of goods and services flowing between the two factional domains, doesn't mean that is the actual concept being represented. The markets are far too abstract for that to be definable. Now, if you *choose* to conceptualize them that way, and as a result role play that concept by opting out of them, that was always dealers choice. Some people probably don't even like the notion of "buying" *anything* from *anyone* that isn't an actual thing and clashes with their concepts of what the items actually are. But this is not mandated by the devs' actions, even if it appears to be an apparently logical conclusion. The axioms of that conclusion are far too shaky for that line of thought to be objective.
On this, we are in entire agreement.
Well said.
I'd only mention an extra stress towards your mileage may vary and anything and everything can be conceptualized as physical objects (potions, scrolls, tech, chemical boosts, deity-given boons, Scooby Snacks, etc) just as much as it can be conceptualized as nonexistent.

I'm not stressing that to you, Arcanaville, as you get it and mentioned it yourself.
I've been in this conversation before and have seen some people's difficulty in understanding that conceptualization swings both ways.

Myself, I handwave most enhancements and such things as nonexistant for my characters and Wentworth's is just a meta-game game mechanic behind the scenes aspect of my role-playing.
If it is anything to me In-Character... it is for buying regular and/or super-special things. A general auction house.

And, yeah, inspirations always seem like a limited form of karma points from the old Marvel RPG

Of course, my handwaving and concepts vary from character to character.

Okay, no need for this ramble...


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GREAT HORNY TOADS!!!! This is great news on sooo many levels! I really could not be happier.

Just a reminder to any villain that teams with one of Venture's heroes in a Co-Op zone...ever...he does not want your dirty, dirty wakie or purple or small red or a Rez, or a Buff, or anything from your evil little hands...his heroes are above such things.

Didi I mention how happy I am with this???


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First, OMG, glee. I was very much not expecting this. I'm guessing that either the shadow of the ongoing development started to outweigh the technical challenges of the market merge the devs mentioned at Cons, or they found a way to mitigate the merge challenges.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rylas View Post
The problem with this argument is that it fails to take so much into account. Fewer produced goods on the BM come from a lower amount of villains being played than heroes. And one reason for that could be that the market is a deterrent. Then there's the fact that with GR's release, side-switching will be going on, and over time (probably not that long of a period either) production among Hero AT's and Villain AT's could end up leveling out.

Also, does this argument take into account recipes/enhancements/salvage produced from the player base as a whole, or does it just look at what's on WW and what's on the BM? Among all players, the productivity stays the same. The only difference now is that you don't have a divider to cloud your observations.
This is really important. Market participation has its own positive feedback loop. If not a lot of people are participating, this is a disincentive to those who might otherwise be willing to. Merging the markets may increase the percentage of villain players who regularly use the markets to list goods for sale.

I do still consider it likely that heroes may experience higher prices and villains lower ones. However, I'd like to point out that other game changes before now have had absolutely transformative impact on prices. The introduction of merits, the creation of the AE (and the long period of exploits), I16's difficulty sliders, even influx of new players on major issue releases - all of these have had drastic affects on prices in various (sometimes large) segments of the market. I'm honestly not sure we're going to be able to discern the difference here, especially not as new changes continue to come into play.

Edit: I should also add the general reminder that wholesale market price shifts are largely irrelevant to players who actually sell goods on the market for monetary gain. When prices go up, so do your market earnings.


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Originally Posted by War Witch View Post
The other is not quite such common knowledge. Out of nowhere, Wentworth’s has gained access to new suppliers, but all suspicions and investigations have been stymied by the immaculate paperwork of their new partners. Likewise, the Black Market has suddenly seen a rise in activity, though no one has looked too closely at the ‘why’ so long as the goods are solid. For now, it remains a mystery.
For a company that unabashedly deals in restricted materials and technology, not to mention outright slave trade, a little smuggling on the side is one of Wentworth's minor flaws.


 

Posted

Things should become more affordable now on villains other than low level salvage.


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I was very excited for GR to come out to get my brute to 1k badges. Now I'm looking forward to the merged market as well. Unfortunately we have to wait a little longer than expected. But, for a merged market I'm ok with that.


Prices will rise blueside and drop redside is my prediction but it won't be uniform. Salvage prices will rise redside while recipe prices will drop for example. And in particular pet damage recipes will spike in price blueside as MMs are able to access them.

This is one of the best about-faces I've ever seen in an MMO and it restores alot of the faith I had in the dev team after the 1+ yr long AE debacle we've had.


 

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I went and brewed a pot of coffee just so I could spew it all over my screen.

I seriously expected an intermediate step first, like unrestricted gleemail alone, to allow some resources to flow back redside. Still, I'm glad you did both at once. Allowing rich heroes to gift poorer villain alts should negate any problems that arise from redside being so resource-poor.


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Awesome news.

That ensures that our villains stay where they are. Yay!


 

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Originally Posted by Jetpack View Post
Awesome news.

That ensures that our villains stay where they are. Yay!

Yeah, how things would have actually played out, who knows... But I am very happy to see this oft-mentioned reason for people switching to Blueside removed.


@Zethustra
"Now at midnight all the agents and the superhuman crew come out
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"
-Dylan

 

Posted

The markets have three problems. First, there are far too many markets to have a healthy level of liquidity in more than a small minority of the markets in existence. With tens of thousands of markets and 80,000+ subscribers, this amounts to nothing more than stating the obvious. The solution to this problem is also obvious, given that the number of subs is unlikely to increase 100-fold.

Second, transparency is key to making markets strongly efficient, and providing only the "last five prices" will never be a good solution. The current limits on information provided lead to very high profits for those who stay regularly connected to the markets because they understand price movements far better than those who don't--essentially, some version of technical trading works, in the COX-verse, because historical information is only available to those who gather and remember it. Those who don't spend a lot of time at the markets end up operating at a strong disadvantage when trying to set their bid and ask prices. This leads to fairness issues, which irritates some players and drives them away from participating in the markets, and it lowers overall volume and liquidity. This is on the devs, though, as players can be counted on to do what is in their best interests and designing a system based on any other premise isn't going to work.

Third, the transaction system for the markets currently encourages players to spend a large percentage of their time at the markets handling low value items, which lowers their motivation to participate. More generally, players incur high hassle costs as the price of their involvement in the markets, which has depressed trading volume. Reducing the hassle costs of participating, and giving players ways of quickly putting low value items onto the markets (or into item sinks), so they can focus most of their attention on higher value items, would help players feel like their time at the markets is producing more "value" and they'd be more likely to want to participate. Ergo, participation would rise.

If these three problems were addressed, then both Wentworths and the Black Market would be functioning better than fine. And, a market merger solves none of these problems.

Of all the arguments presented to justify a merger, Arcannaville's arguments are the only ones that have any level of resonance to me. Wave it all way, and pretend that even those things that happen in plain sight while at the markets aren't actually happening at all.

Any RP way of presenting this is full of obvious holes. Its unthematic. Its doubly ironic that this change is being made when the game is being repositioned as being about moral choice, as moral choice on the items side of the game is essentially being written out of the game. It runs the risk of turning COX into a water cooler joke among those involved in the comic-verse. It runs the risk of having some percentage of players log on their heroes, not feel heroic after they finish supplying their and other villains, and decide they'd rather play other games instead.

And, at the end of the day, a market merger doesn't even solve the three underlying problems that have prevented the markets from functioning well.


 

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Originally Posted by ShoeTattoo View Post
The markets have three problems. First, there are far too many markets to have a healthy level of liquidity in more than a small minority of the markets in existence. With tens of thousands of markets and 80,000+ subscribers, this amounts to nothing more than stating the obvious. The solution to this problem is also obvious, given that the number of subs is unlikely to increase 100-fold.
Unless you're using some other definition of the term "market," as far as I can tell this reduces the number of markets to one per server. I have no idea where you're getting the "tens of thousands of markets" figure; I'm open to the idea that I'm misunderstanding you somewhere.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShoeTattoo View Post
Second, transparency is key to making markets strongly efficient, and providing only the "last five prices" will never be a good solution. The current limits on information provided lead to very high profits for those who stay regularly connected to the markets because they understand price movements far better than those who don't--essentially, some version of technical trading works, in the COX-verse, because historical information is only available to those who gather and remember it. Those who don't spend a lot of time at the markets end up operating at a strong disadvantage when trying to set their bid and ask prices. This leads to fairness issues, which irritates some players and drives them away from participating in the markets, and it lowers overall volume and liquidity. This is on the devs, though, as players can be counted on to do what is in their best interests and designing a system based on any other premise isn't going to work.
What you're saying here is that people who game the market more will get more out of it. That's always been the case and without STRICT regulation will always be the case. It's also not a revelation to anyone.

It also follows that people who game the market less (like, say, me) care way less about getting every last bit of Inf out of it they can, so they will continue not to care about the elaborate machinations of those who do. I see no net loss here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShoeTattoo View Post
Third, the transaction system for the markets currently encourages players to spend a large percentage of their time at the markets handling low value items, which lowers their motivation to participate. More generally, players incur high hassle costs as the price of their involvement in the markets, which has depressed trading volume. Reducing the hassle costs of participating, and giving players ways of quickly putting low value items onto the markets (or into item sinks), so they can focus most of their attention on higher value items, would help players feel like their time at the markets is producing more "value" and they'd be more likely to want to participate. Ergo, participation would rise.
There IS a way to quickly get rid of low-value items; you sell them at the vendors.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShoeTattoo View Post
Any RP way of presenting this is full of obvious holes. Its unthematic. Its doubly ironic that this change is being made when the game is being repositioned as being about moral choice, as moral choice on the items side of the game is essentially being written out of the game. It runs the risk of turning COX into a water cooler joke among those involved in the comic-verse. It runs the risk of having some percentage of players log on their heroes, not feel heroic after they finish supplying their and other villains, and decide they'd rather play other games instead.
The GAME is full of obvious holes. Or am I expected to believe that my blaster is hauling around a dozen cybernetic limbs at any given point?

As has been pointed out, the market is already a pretty thin RP veneer to represent a complex trade system, and throwing some story at it is, really, a courtesy from the devs. It's my humble opinion that people who care THAT MUCH about the moral quandary of the markets are 1) not paying attention to the rest of the game, apparently, and 2) taking it way too seriously.

Regardless, "moral choice" has never been part of the markets, and I'd love to see a compelling reason (outside of making fun missions out of it) why it should be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShoeTattoo View Post
It runs the risk of turning COX into a water cooler joke among those involved in the comic-verse.
OK, you're going to have to show your work on this one, because standing alone this claim is stone-cold hilarious. "They were doing so well," says the shadowy Illuminati of the comic-verse (which is what? retailers? writers? fans? who?) "Until they merged their loot database to streamline the creation of character enhancements." And then THE LAUGHTER!

I'm seeing a weird puritanical thread in claims like this one -- that unless motivation and action are one, and unless all actions by a character are completely transparent and reinforced by a failsafe assurance that what you are doing is always GOOD and JUST (or conversely EVIL and NASTY), then the game is somehow sullied and impure. And let's be real: that is silly.

But let's run with the RP angle and consider the implications of Wentworth's somehow fronting a more sinister organization (which is only slightly less common than fire/kin controllers in the CoX-verse, but for whatever reason we're only taking issue with it now). What you're suggesting is that there's just no room for ambivalence or ambiguity in superhero storytelling, which is absolutely right so long as you ignore the entire history of superhero storytelling. Particularly the last 40 years of it.


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Originally Posted by FelicityBane View Post
Unless you're using some other definition of the term "market," as far as I can tell this reduces the number of markets to one per server.
The markets are not segregated by server. Right now the markets are Blue Side across ALL servers (one market, all servers), and red-side is one market across all servers. This will make it one market across all servers and each side, not one per server.

Agree with the rest of your post, tho


Quote:
Originally Posted by eltonio View Post
This is over the top mental slavery.

 

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Excellent news. I'm very, very pleased. Thank you.


 

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Originally Posted by Jet_Boy View Post
Ok... insult aside. Because it doesn't agree with yours, it's flawed?
No, it's flawed because it lacks any basis in the reality of how markets work.


I mean, you're free to hold any crazy, wild eyed opinion you want, I'm not going to stop you.

But when that nutty opinion touches on a subject I know inside out, I'll call you on it.


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Originally Posted by War Witch View Post
Hey everyone,
  • The Auction House markets for Heroes and Villains will become ONE
What affect will this have on the WW and BM teleport powers? Will they only work for their named locations? Only work for the market locations of the side you are on? Let you teleport between Hero and Villain sides? Or what?