Super Packs Update - 12/2/2011

Thank you for stepping in, Positron. As a VIP, please add my vote to the "let Premiums keep VIP-earned costumes" side of the scale.


Thank you, Liquid, for stating this so well. This is exactly the option that I think will work best for the Super Pack costume parts.

Let VIP have the option to purchase the costume pieces in a bundle, a-la-carte, and/or via Super Packs. Premium players only have access to those same costume pieces via the Super Packs.

If Premium players want to pay $15 for one month for the right to purchase the costume pieces in a bundle and/or a-la-carte, good for them! Existing VIP members are already used to and willing to pay extra for costume bundles and/or a-la-carte in the Paragon Market; so keeping this established practice exclusive to us VIP reinforces the feeling of being Very Important People spared from unwanted random rolls.


I can't speak for everyone, Positron, but I personally will pay more for the first costume sets released this way to help offset the additional coding required just like I gladly bought the German Shepherd Pet as my Thank You for investing in a four-legged rig. (Tangent: When do I get to purchase my wolf pet? )

How about if they released them for being subscribed during the first month they're introduced, much like a lot of the "Loyalty" pieces from the Vanguard Pack or the up-and-coming Helms of Zeus/Tartarus? I think that's a good compromise. Heck if they want to be janky about it, it could be from being a subscriber for the month _before_ it's announced, guaranteeing that only regular 'Loyal' subscribers would get it, to keep folks from 'gaming the system' and only subscribing for that month to get the goodie forever.

This is what I meant in my post, and what I assumed others meant. I just want the option to purchase the items outside of the packs. I am still willing to pay for them, I just don't want to have to gamble for them.

I think they should just price the pieces individually. It will basically double the cost anyways, and then people can mix and match methods of obtaining the costume pieces.

The whole purpose of the super packs in to introduce a consumable market item that players (mostly VIPs) are enticed to regularly buy. The problem that the playerbase is having with these items is that designed with the best interests of the seller in mind, and not the interests of giving a 'fair trade' value to the customer. They are a lottery, designed with randomness so you have to likely buy more than might have originally because of the addictivness of the psychology of 'ooo, I might win', obsucating the total cost of the 'exclusive' costume part you're hoping to get, and wrangling more money out of the player that they would likely have spent by simply looking at the actual 'sticker price'.

And there is nearly unlimited upward profit potential for the company. Want to sell more? Put a super rare item in the super packs with only 0.5% chance of dropping, and then you sell even more to the dedicated fans who will try and get that item. There isn't any benefit to the player of having random drops, it only benefits the company selling them.

Don't get me wrong, I want to give the game money. I've felt a large amount of goodwill towards the company in years past. I just want to know what I am getting for my money before I spend it.

If you stop being a VIP without buying the set, then the next time you visit a tailor to change that costume slot you have to pick new items to replace the now generic parts you are wearing.

You get access to the GR parts while being a VIP, but if you are a premium you have to buy the parts or have GR or GR:Complete to continue to use the parts after a tailor session.

Unless you are a developer, you can claim nothing about how many costume pieces are at what rarity.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

What?

The "Coupon Collector's Problem" has never applied to this issue, nor has the value of $75. Yet that is precisely what you said a couple of post ago.

My point is exactly the same with the old information as it is with the new.

Er... yeah, that's precisely what I was saying.

Um, you already have costumes that are free to VIPs, and you have the Celestial set which is not only exclusively available to VIPs, but *Tier 9* VIPs. Hasn't that ship already sailed?

Yes, it has, going back to the original announcement at the 'Pummit.' Since the player uproar, some things changed.

That is cool, I will have to look into ATOs once they come out. I don't really see me using the current scrapper one for Murcielago.

No it hasn't. It has never applied.

As I said:

"The "Coupon Collector's Problem" only applies when you can potentially collect the same piece twice, and further, that every piece is desired precisely once.

"Neither of those things are true of the super packs.
a) Costume pieces can never be repeated, if you get one, you will never get it again.
b) Other items in the packs may be desired more than once, or not at all."

Both of those facts were known at the original announcement, and they are still known now.
The "Coupon Collector's Problem" didn't apply then, and it still doesn't apply now, for precisely those two reasons, which were just as true then as they are now.

If you're going to respond to this post, please try and actually address those two points, rather than just going "Nuh uh, it did apply, it DID!"

It does apply.

I could theoreticly, get multple inspirations, multiple enhancements, multiple bonouses of the exp/prestige or windfall variety, these would come instead of the costume pieces I want, and can come multiple times instead of said pieces.

I think you might be misunderstanding what people are asking for.

They are asking that while they are VIP they can go the store and outright purchase the Elemental Order costume pack, rather than having to rely on pot luck with the boosters.

Not that they get it for free, or that only VIP can get it, but just the option of giving you guys the money and reciving exactly what they want.

Of course a preemium could do the same, but well they just gave you $15 in subscription fee and the extra money for the costume pack, so for that time aren't they a VIP?

Now perhaps I'm wrong about Paragon and you guys would much perfer the option of having subscribers also run the risk of spending a crap load of money and not reciving what they want from these packs.

I'd be very dissapointed if my high opinion of you guys as a company turned out to be false.

Actually the "Coupon Collector's Problem" has always existed with the costumes in the pack, because you are never assured that you will get a costume piece every time much less multiple costumes. Even when asked on UStream, Black Scorpion could say how many packs a player would have to buy until they collected a complete set. However the "Coupon Collector's Problem" was (and actually still is) far worse with the ATOs and Catalysts in the packs. The announcement has just said that there will be a release valve with Reward and Astral Merits.

Not the same thing. The Celestial set is a redeemed or "bought" costume. You spend Paragon Reward Tokens on it, you've "bought" it for that account.

The IDF/Defense set and the extra costumes from Going Rogue are pretty much what Positron is talking about.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

You're both just essentually going "Nuh uh" without even bothering to address the points. That's borderline trolling.

Read the Wikipedia page which was given by the very person who made the original claim.

"It asks the following question: Suppose that there are n coupons, from which coupons are being collected with replacement. What is the probability that more than t sample trials are needed to collect all n coupons? An alternative statement is: Given n coupons, how many coupons do you expect you need to draw with replacement before having drawn each coupon at least once"

The packs do not fit that definition. They simply don't. For the two reasons I've already given twice. Not to mention other reasons I didn't bother to bring up.

This is a precise mathematical issue, you can't "almost" fit the Coupon Collector's Problem. Either it does, or it doesn't, and this doesn't. Even a slight deviation from the originial changes all the formulas, and this deviates more than slightly.

I can be argued that this is a generalisation of the Coupon Collector's Problem, but that doesn't mean anything, as the generalised result will be very different to the specific.

Well I'm not going to accuse you of trolling, but I am going to say that you are intentionally trying to miss the point. You'd also fail miserably when trying to do the math.

Actually it fits.

Say the costumes were numbered (made up numbers for example) 1-20, the ATOs were 21-121, and boosts were 122-216.

The first pack you get 14, 75, 180, 152, 210.

We've been told that 14 (costume) will be prevented from being given to the player again.

So the next roll comes up with 14, 76, 182, 145, 204. Wait, 14 was a costume and picked before. So the computer picks a new number, thus fudging the roll to prevent the same costume from being picked again.

The packs are still following the "Coupon Collector's Problem", but intentionally fudging the rolls to prevent duplicate costumes. This is a common practice when programming with RNGs because they do tend to be not completely and truly random.

In the case of the ATOs, they exactly fit the definition above (including the ability to get multiples) even by your precise standards. Even with the announced changes, the ATOs in the Super Packs are an example of the "Coupon Collector's Problem". The costumes are still subject to the same problem, except the game is explicitly cheating in favor of the player when duplicates arise.

No, it is a semantics issue, not a math issue. It shows that you are superficially looking at the definition and not what is actually happening.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

Defintions, and using them precisely, are the most important thing there is in maths. If you fail to do that, you are failing to do maths.

If you fudge a defintion, then you are doing a completely different problem. As you said, the game runs something similar to the set-up of the Coupon Collector's Problem but then fudges it. At the point it stops being the Coupon Collector's Problem and becomes something else

Not that it matters, because even if it didn't fudge it, it still wouldn't end up as the Coupon Collector's Problem. Or are you telling me you would never want more than one copy of an AT set?

As I said, you could consider it as a generalisation of the Coupon Collector's Problem, but that would not make it the Coupon Collector's Problem itself. Nor would it be a helpful statement to make unless you actually worked out the maths itself and found that the generalisation would have similar properties to the specific statement (and it wouldn't).

Maths is, and always will be, about being precise. Not just "kinda" precise, exactly precise.

As a VIP, I buy something I want, I get it. You shouldn't take that away if I'm in a bind and can't make my payment for the month (lol). Now, if I had paid for something labeled "Only VIP players will ever be able to use this and if your VIP subscription goes away so does this" that's a different story, but at that point I'm not paying for the thing, I'm paying for other people not to have it, which is both weird and mean.

I would say the logical choice is to let the thing only be purchasable by VIPs but to let them keep it if their sub lapses, and just to introduce other stuff later on for new guys. the celestial stuff was very nice, and I'm looking forward to its replacement.

When DOES that become no longer available, anyway?

Yes. Some sets I, personally, wouldn't want more than one set of ATOs. I have a finite amount of characters, therefore I want a finite amount of sets.

However take a premium account: 2 global slots. That means 2 character, likely 2 different ATs. That player would want a finite amount of sets.

Now you are deliberately trying to be antagonistic though. By a strict definition, the game cheats the Coupon Collector's Problem on costumes. It doesn't cheat the ATOs fitting the Coupon Collector's Problem at all. You are trying to do what you are accusing others of doing.

The Coupon Collector's Problem doesn't care if a collector wants more than one set or not. It is only about getting one complete set. A single ATO set fits that precise definition, even by your standards no matter how much you want to deny it.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

Players are, justifiably, saying that by doing so Paragon Studios is targeting VIPs in a predatory manner. I don't think anyone denied that the original idea would sell (and often). The issue was if they were going to sell in a manner that didn't feed on addiction.

And there was already a assured rare or very rare per pack.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

Once you are awarded the Celestial costume set, i.e.; spend your Reward Tokens on it, we do not claw it back if you unsubscribe from VIP status.

targeting VIPs in a predatory manner? Like, with a harpoon gun? I'm not seeing that.
If there were an in-game mechanic that caused "free" enhancements and recipes and costume parts to stop dropping for VIPs so that VIPs were forced to spend more money to play, THAT would be predatory.

This looks like a way to enhance the value of a VIP sub. If these packs are only available to VIPs, then it's like a whole new thing that adds value to the VIP status.

Cool to hear. Has anyone mentioned what date it stops being available? I'm looking forward to taunting people with something they CAN NEVER HAVE.

Zwillinger... THE CLAW!!!

Yep, that's your new nickname, Claw.