Super Packs Update - 12/2/2011

I was under the impression (possibly mistaken I'll admit) that they plan to release these in the future through another method. After a suitable time of them being exclusively VIP Reward choices only and then out of the Paragon Reward shrub for a certain amount of time.

rawr...you're scared of the claw...

We haven't given a specific date, only to state that they will still be available once we release the next Tier 9 VIP set, Fire and Ice and will be rotated out once the subsequent set after that is released.

There should always be overlap.

Ok, I feel much better knowing I'm not the only one who thought of Cary Elwes in Liar Liar after ZM's post.

Something completely random with no guarantee of getting what you want to pay for exactly adds value . . . for the seller. Like in casinos. Not hard to see why some folks might have issue with that.

No, I am not. This is just a subject that matters to me.

"Cheat" is a loaded word. It doesn't "cheat" with AT enhancements, but it still doesn't fit what the Coupon Collector's Problem is.

The Coupon Collector's Problem is where you have n things, and you want to get every one of those n thing at least once.

With the super-packs, there are over 200 things, and yet you might only want 6 specific enhancements. That is not the Coupon Collector's Problem. The Coupon Collector's Problem is wanting 6 things out of 6, or 205 things out of 205. It is not wanting 6 things out of 205.

That is rather pedantic though. And if that was the only difference between it and the Coupon Collector's Problem, I probably wouldn't have said anything. There's more though.

As you say, the system fudges things with the costume parts, not the enhancements but, as the costume parts are in the same pool as the enhancements, they effect each other. On your first go, your chances are 6/205 for each card. Now lets say that first pack is all costume pieces. Unfortunate, as you don't want those, you only want those 6 enhancements but, as you cannot repeat costume pieces, the chance per card are now 6/200, not 6/205.
The Coupon Collector's Problem is simply not set up to deal with changes in probability like that. Further, the changes aren't even predicable, you might get two costume pieces in a pack, or you might get none. That makes for a much much more complicated probability issue than the Coupon Collector's Problem.

Lastly, lets assume the system is set up to be exactly like the Coupon Collector's Problem. We'll eliminate any deviations from it in the random system. We'll say that each pack only gives 1 card, and there are only 6 cards to get, each one is an enhancement from the set you want, and it is possible to duplicate a card each time.
That is exactly the n=6 Coupon Collector's Problem.
Now, with this set-up, you buy 6 packs and you get 4 unique enhancements and 2 duplicates.
"Oh no!" you think "Now I have to buy more packs, even though chances are they are just going to duplicate what I already have. Damn you Coupon Collector's Problem!!!" *shakes fist*
"Wait!" you have an idea "I'll just sell the extra ones on the market and use the profits to buy the two I don't have from the said same auction house." and you walk away happy with your full set with no loss other than a bit of time and 10% of the inf price.

So, even with the random system set-up exactly like the Coupon Collector's Problem, it still doesn't fit, as the Coupon Collector's Problem assume duplicates are worthless, whereas, with the super-packs, duplicates can be perfectly worthwhile, even if you don't personally want them.

And yes, the problem does care if you want duplicates. The probability space you use to derive your consideration of the problem has to take into account what is desired and what is not. Otherwise it isn't an accurate representation of the problem as it stands.
If the duplicates of a pack have value, then the packs themselves have greater value than if duplicates were worthless. Any probability analysis has to take that into account.

I'd just like to point out that you're making a fairly big assumption here. All we know is that you are guaranteed not to get repeat costume pieces, the mechanism by which that happens it unknown. You are assuming that costume pieces you already own are removed from the 'pool' before randomization takes place, where it's just as possible that instead, substitution takes places after the fact, and there is no guarantee that said substitution is random.

In plain language, it's perfectly possible that if you get a rare costume item in a pack, on further packs, that item isn't removed from the 'rolling table', but is instead replaced with Windfall.

This is why I've repeatedly insisted that transparency in the numbers is essential. Paragon seems inclined to disagree.

That's a very good point.
And it makes the situation even more complicated, and further divergent from a simple Coupon Collector's Problem.

Seeing that you are coming into this late, I suggest you read all 1,200+ posts in the following thread for the background on this issue:
The UNofficial Super Pack Feedback Thread

Short form: It is gambling with real money to get the stuff a player wants with a fairly good chance to be disappointed. The packs have items that directly appeal to VIPs to convince them to buy the packs. Many of us have been through several Collectible Card Games and don't want any part of it here.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

Yes:

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

Here's how I see it - my VIP subscription buys me convenience. If someone wants to buy a month's time of VIP subscription just so he can buy the costume sets, let him. When he drops down to premium, he'll keep the costume, but he can never edit it again unless he goes back to VIP. So suppose that two days after his VIP subscription runs out, he realises he has the wrong colour belt, or he forgot to do his face sliders. SOL. You can't edit the costume or you lose the pieces you no longer own. He who is no longer VIP simply has to accept an imperfect character, or else buy more VIP time to fix it. On the other hand, I as a VIP can alter my costumes at any time I want and not fear losing parts. That's worth paying for.

Again - I don't want free stuff to be the sole benefit of my VIP subscription. I can afford to buy things off your store. I want the benefits of my VIP subscription to be comfort and convenience. I know you have to do some pretty unpleasant things to get people to pay in a F2P game. Yours won't be the first game to coerce its players. I get that, and I would be willing to pay a monthly subscription to be exempt from that.

Originally Posted by Arcanaville Samuel_Tow is the only poster that makes me want to punch him in the head more often when I'm agreeing with him than when I'm disagreeing with him.

What you are not getting is that it is close enough. It doesn't have to be exact. That the packs follow a subset of the problem, and that the packs can be accurately described by the Coupon Collector's Problem (yes, you can determine exactly how long until you get at least 1 of everything using that definition).

And that fits. There are over 200 things, and you can use that problem to determine either the full item list OR use the principle until such time you get the subset of the items you want. In this case the math is much more flexible than you are.

Well that is something we agree on. The fact that you are going on and on about it is increasingly pedantic (I'd suggest you look it up, but I think you know what it means).

You don't program much, huh? The base algorithm will be able to be accurately described with the the proof. There is a layer above/below/between the game and the user to change results though. If player's suggestion that the parts be able to be traded, that layer would have to disappear and we are back to it being a pure subset of the Coupon Collector's Problem.

I suggest you read this:

Isaac, Richard (1995), "8.4 The coupon collector's problem solved", The Pleasures of Probability, Undergraduate Texts in Mathematics, New York: Springer-Verlag, pp. 80–82, ISBN 0-387-94415-X, MR1329545.

The book uses the example of trading cards (Baseball cards to be exact). The fact the items can be traded or not makes no difference to the problem.

You have a more strict definition of the problem than an undergraduate textbook, which means I can safely ignore your opinion.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

No they don't.
They follow, as I've said several times now, a large generalisation of the problem. The exact opposite of a subset. And therein lies the issue.

No they can't, that's literally impossible. This is a probabilistic issue, the exact time taken can't be found other than actually trying it, and each trial will have a different result.
At best you can get an exact mean of the time taken, and yes, that's possible. But it's not possible with the tools given by the Coupon Collector's Problem.


I'm not sure why you felt the need to say any of that. As I said myself, that issue is rather pedantic. As, although the Coupon Collector's Problem itself does not explain how to do such problem, it can easily be extended, in this case, to answer that question too.

And what about the fact you're going on and on too?


No, I don't. I'm a mathematician, not a computer scientist.

I admit, I'm really not sure what you're trying to say there.

I suggest that you read that. Yes, trading cards are used as an example, but the issue of being able to trade them is implicitly ignored. It's simple, just work through the proof that's given for yourself. You'll see that trading is never considered, and the packs are all bought by the person in question.

It's just an example to illustrate the problem, it's not an attempt to rigorously analyse trading cards.

Again, I suggest you read that book for yourself, as it uses the exact same definition as me.
I suspect you didn't do any more than skim read that book, and assumed it would be to much for me to understand and so I'd just give up. As it happens though, I have to thank you for introducing it, as it supports my position quite nicely. I can never be bothered to find my own sources.

When this happens will more reward token slots be added to Tier 9 VIP or will the existing Celestial pieces be combined into one token slot with Fire and Ice taking up the other two?

Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison See, it's gems like these that make me check Claws' post history every once in a while to make sure I haven't missed anything good lately.

I'm made out of money!? time to take care of some debt!

I may be posting late but I was here and reading while the 1200 post knee jerk reaction wsa going on, and knew at that point that I needed to wait for more official info before even making a comment.

I've played collectible card games that worked, and games that failed hard.

Does anyone here even remember that City of Heroes had a collectible card game? Eh? As I recall the randomness of that was HARSH. Good luck getting the basic stuff required for a character, LET ALONE enough copies of important abilities to build the spec you want. And if you wanted a specific combo of tanker powersets, there might not be a named hero with that combo, so you'd have to build it yourself, with the mannequin-like "custom tanker" hero card.

Also although it shares many characteristics of gambling, and being a ccg veteran, I know what you mean, there are key differences with that that need to be said. Namely, if you've never been to a casino, you should visit one. There is a huge difference between an FLGS and a casino. Comparing CCG's to gambling is like comparing D&D to gambling. The randomness alone is not a valid comparison.

If I go to a casino and put $5 in chips on a table and don't win, I possess nothing.

If I purchase $5 in CCG content or super packs, I possess something. And, it turns out it's something desirable.

If I purchase $5 in new dice (man what a deal that would be), I have new dice! I hope they're lucky because my character would sure love to avoid a repeat of the haunted house we ran through last saturday session. Any sane logical person would say that I obtained nothing of value by obtaining new dice, but I'm a gamer and I know better.

A casino is a very seedy place and a unique experience, and it's always bugged me that people talk about gambling without really knowing the significance of that word. Gambling means randomly winning or losing money, or exchangeable tokens that have money value, or chips that don't really have money value but can be exchanged for money, depending on how you look at that.

In M:tG it can be considered gambling in the sense that when you buy a pack, you can literally sell the rares for a LOT of cash - back in Zendikar block you could pop open a pack of Worldwake and get Jace the Mind Sculptor which was literally worth more than a box of those same boosters. The game suffered, in my opinion, from a very serious "cost of entry" problem where nearly every standard legal deck required 4 of that guy, which would set you back $500 or so. And that, while deplorable, is a side effect of the problem that the game designers literally can't stop the real world market from dictating the value of the cards.

But this is the sale of a randomized collection of virtual goods which are not necessary for players, and it's meant to provide players with something for their purchase. I'm seeing a distinct detachment between what we know so far and what people are assuming will happen.

Frankly I will have to see which costume parts are exclusively in it and what the odds are of getting them before I come to any conclusions about how "bad" it is for the game.

The randomness of it is good enough for me to say it's bad for players, but not necessarily bad for the game.

I have no illusions that these things are meant to make money. With that said I don't think the odds are going to be anything in the player's favor based on the history of other RNG systems in this game.

Thus anyone with gambling issues this might be bad for. However, I expect it to make money just for that reason. Which is good for the game. Financially. Only.

Reputation-wise and goodwill building-wise . . . that's another story.

No, the issue is that Paragon Studios is suddenly and unexpectedly planning to add a probabilistic sales option to the deterministic ones the CoH playerbase is accustomed to. Whether buying the old Booster Packs under the old subscription model or current items on Paragon Market under 'Freedom', we could count on knowing exactly what we were purchasing for our money. The proposed Super Packs will change all of that. Tweak the parameters of the equation to the Coupon Collector's Problem if necessary, the concept still reflects basically what we're dealing with.

It's encouraging that the devs are listening to our feedback about the Super Packs here on the forums, and they've made several changes to the model since it was announced at Pummit. Here's hoping they'll continue to compromise and will offer alternatives to players who, after all, would be perfectly happy to purchase the items at a fair price on the regular Paragon Market.

Fixed.

That's about it. All the silly nonsense about coupon's collector or what this is or isn't is irrelevant. The point is ONCE AGAIN Paragon Studios saw that the players were not entirely happy with what they were proposing to sell, so they modified it based on feedback.

That's a good thing.

Fact is players prefer to know exactly what they are getting for the money they are paying. This is NOT the same thing as random rolling with AE tickets or Reward Merits. We are talking about REAL MONEY here.

you and your fixing of things...

and while on topic...I want to see how much these ATOs will cost merit/astral-wise, though this probably won't have much of an effect on impatient people >_>

I too meant what Liquid has said. Let VIPs purchase them, and let all others either go random for them, or subscribe to buy them directly.

Now, let me explain something. I intend to buy this set when/if I can. If it goes on sale 6 months after it was added to the Super Packs, then I'll just have to wait 6 months to buy it. During that time, I will NOT buy any Super Packs. I'll never buy enough to get that full set, and any parts of the set I DO get I'll wind up paying for a second time when I buy the full set (if it comes in a bundle). Buying just the parts I've missed would be annoying, and likely boost the price past what I'd pay for a set bundle.

By buying the full set right away as a VIP, I'd be able to REMOVE the chances of drawing any of the parts in a Super Pack, giving me more of the random toys I'd actually want for my purchase. That's what I'll want the Packs for, given I want to get the costume in some other way.