Put on your speculation caps
By
Adeon Hawkwood,
Posted on: 2010-04-05 07:58 in The Market and Inventions
Quote:
I'm the same. I have lvl 50 characters sitting on hundreds of merits that I just can't be bothered to roll. I don't want the lvl 50 recipes for my own characters, and I don't need the inf, and I wouldn't be doing anything to help market supply as 50 is where most of the recipes on the market are already. So all I do with the merits is buy the occasional Stealth IO for a new character.|
Originally Posted by Cinder_Flux
I would love to roll, however at lvl 50 I can not get lower lvl recipes. If I could pick the lvl then I would roll. I don't want lvl 50 LOtG's and such. I want them to be useful when I Exmp/Mal down for TF/SF's.
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If I could pick the level, I'd roll. Or if I could pass the merits to a lower level character, I'd roll the merits on them. At the moment, though, merits just aren't that interesting or useful to me.
I'd love to know how many merits total are sitting around in character inventories in the game, especially as a proportion of all the merits that have dropped.
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Quote:
Bolded the part I want to address, but I dont want to be accused of taking things out of context.|
Originally Posted by OneFrigidWitch
This is the first serious, useful comment in this junk.
People save merits for 150-250 merit recipes. That is a lot of other potential recipes. Including a chance at one of the 150-250 merit recipes. If one of those recipes sells for 150-300mil, you should be able to get perhaps 1/2 that or better rolling merits instead of hoarding them. People are in it for the mad cash. If the only way to make the mad cash is to hoard, marketeer, or buy it, those are the ways people will do it. The merit and AE ideas were both good ideas, but failed to address shortage caused by marketeers. It is a simplistic matter to weight cost of IO rolls from merits or tickets by tying it to the markets, or active population of either red or blue side. Right now, merits are simply not good enough to do anything with than hoard for big ticket items. Make that a non-truth, and you will see supply in each market stabalize at an equilibrium point. When merits were introduced, they were introduced arbitrarily, with the assumption being "this risk meets this reward", without concious consideration of what that reward might be. That should probably be rethought, as it is obvious that merit and ticket rewards are far from linear in progression. |
Marketeers cause shortages of Pool C Recipes? Really? Id love to hear the reasoning on that one. Sure they drive prices up (forget supply shortages and increases in expendable funds) and maybe they cause shortages in common salvage that causes things like Alchemical Silver to go for 100k (forget how many recipes its used in) but now they cause shortages in expensive recipes too....?
Dammit which of you marketeers bought all the level 35 Obliteration Quads and deleted them all....?
I'm no marketeer, but I fail to see how it's in a marketeer's interest to create a shortage. Marketeers make money on transactions, not on the absence of them. AFAIK, the only time marketeer activity creates shortages is in the initial stage of a price increase, when they buy up existing supply at a lower price so they can sell it at a higher price. Of course, I don't know much.
If there are no items of a type on the market, it's because not enough are being made, or not enough is being offered. System changes can fix the first problem, albeit in ways that might not be very popular. Not much can be done for the latter, save perhaps (and this is quite ridiculous) having NPC vendors list every recipe they buy. At 4x their purchase value. Like they do with SOs.
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Quote:
Actually a shortage of goods is in a marketeers best interests. The nature of a double blind market like the one we have is that items that are in short supply have significantly more variation in transaction price than items that are in higher supply. Since a marketeers profit essentially comes from that difference it is in our best interests.|
Originally Posted by SpittingTrashcan
I'm no marketeer, but I fail to see how it's in a marketeer's interest to create a shortage. Marketeers make money on transactions, not on the absence of them. AFAIK, the only time marketeer activity creates shortages is in the initial stage of a price increase, when they buy up existing supply at a lower price so they can sell it at a higher price. Of course, I don't know much.
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However, that doesn't mean that we cause the shortage since in practice maintaining a profitable shortage for any significant period of time is impractical. Sooner or later someone will come along and start offering goods at a price (or rate) where it is unprofitable for you to buy them out.
Quote:
So if I understand you correctly, marketeers look for goods that are already in short supply, buy all of the supply, and then sell it at a higher price - but they can't create a shortage of goods from an existing surplus, because they don't have the purchasing volume? Because I think that's what I was saying: marketeers don't create shortages, they raise prices. Or am I missing something?|
Originally Posted by Adeon Hawkwood
Actually a shortage of goods is in a marketeers best interests. The nature of a double blind market like the one we have is that items that are in short supply have significantly more variation in transaction price than items that are in higher supply. Since a marketeers profit essentially comes from that difference it is in our best interests.
However, that doesn't mean that we cause the shortage since in practice maintaining a profitable shortage for any significant period of time is impractical. Sooner or later someone will come along and start offering goods at a price (or rate) where it is unprofitable for you to buy them out. |
Edited to add: I see that I did claim that a shortage is adverse to marketeers, and you corrected me on that. I think that I was using a stricter definition of shortage than you, though: marketeers want to buy goods and sell them, not buy goods and use/hoard/delete them, so they'll eventually sell what they buy. What I meant in this case by "shortage" was not "low volume at high price" but "no items available for purchase at all".
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Quote:
Generally, no.|
Originally Posted by SpittingTrashcan
So if I understand you correctly, marketeers look for goods that are already in short supply, buy all of the supply, and then sell it at a higher price
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Trying to buy all of the supply is usually a horrible waste of money since there are always some items listed at crazy prices.
What the marketeers typically do is 'flip' stuff. They buy it cheap and sell it at a higher price. So, as mentioned, items with wide price fluctuations are prime targets.
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and just to clarify for those who think that marketeers are responsible for the high prices, when we say that we buy low and sell high, we mean we sell at a higher price then what we paid. not higher then the current amount the item is going for. it is the BUYER who pays amounts higher then what they see.
| They buy it cheap and sell it at a higher price. |
... first time I listed something for 37 million and someone bought it for 54 million [actual numbers may be wrong but they were on that order] - not a sitting bid leading to an insta-sell- I realized that I wasn't setting the price. Someone's FIRST TRY at buying that item was like 15 million higher than I listed it.
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Quote:
Because it simply gave the ability to create more random rolls, it didn't guarantee random rolls like the old pool C/D drop system. Every time someone completes content that grants enough merits for a random roll, but doesn't roll the merits (or completes content that would've rewarded a roll before I13 but doesn't after, such as the KHTF, Cap SF, or Eden Trial), that's essentially a recipe that never makes it into the game. That is why we saw a recipe shortage - merits have the potential to create more random rolls, but due to the superstitious nature of people and the way the merit system works, that's not how it's turned out in practice.
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Originally Posted by Umber
We saw a recipe shortage after the merits change, but why would we if merits equaled out to the same if not more ability to create random rolls?
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Actual data demonstrates this statement to be hyperbole. In fact, many desirable items are often more available on villainside. At the time that data was collected, Pool Cs such as Obliteration: Accuracy/Damage/Recharge/Endurance, Positron's Blast: Accuracy/Damage/Endurance, Touch of Death: Accuracy/Damage/Endurance, Impervium Armor: Resistance, and Luck of the Gambler: Defense/Endurance/Recharge had more availability Redside.|
Originally Posted by Nethergoat
/edit
forgot villains, who can't usually sell their stuff and buy what they want like heroes- in their case, saving merits and buying specific recipes is probably the most efficient way to go about things. |
The non-random, non-scientific, non-etc. etc. data also counted a total of 240 pool Cs of the types chosen listed for sale Redside. At that same time 368 were listed blue side. This data does show that there is more availability blueside. However, "probably the most efficient way to go about things" is hyperbole.
Feel free to collect more up-to-date and more comprehensive data to demonstrate your point if you feel I am mistaken.
I don't have complete data but I set up this thread out of frustration. When servers come up I can check specific level "last 5" sales for that and a couple other arbitrary recipes, red and blueside.
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Quote:
This is my position as well. I don't use level 50 recipes. Every character that gets IO sets, is built to exemp down for TF's, usually with level 33 or 38 sets. I gain nothing from random rolls at 50. I have a couple thousand merits sitting on level 50's that only get used every once in a while to buy a specific recipe like Numina, Miracle or LotG.|
Originally Posted by Grouchybeast
I'm the same. I have lvl 50 characters sitting on hundreds of merits that I just can't be bothered to roll. I don't want the lvl 50 recipes for my own characters, and I don't need the inf, and I wouldn't be doing anything to help market supply as 50 is where most of the recipes on the market are already. So all I do with the merits is buy the occasional Stealth IO for a new character.
If I could pick the level, I'd roll. Or if I could pass the merits to a lower level character, I'd roll the merits on them. At the moment, though, merits just aren't that interesting or useful to me. I'd love to know how many merits total are sitting around in character inventories in the game, especially as a proportion of all the merits that have dropped. |
If we could select the levels for random rolls, I'd blow all those merits tomorrow.
I do use level 50 recipes on some characters, but I'd still roll at lower levels if it were possible. I can buy level 50 recipes on the market whenever I want; the lower level ones, not so much.
My 50s seem to roll better stuff too...it's cause the devs hate me isn't it?
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Round 2: Slightly less off-the-cuff suggestions, ordered from most to least likely to meet with general approval - that is, among rocks-in-the-head average market users (like me!).
1. Allow players to set level of random rolls.
2. List recipes sold to vendors for a fixed multiple of the vendor buy price.
3. Remove recipe level brackets; all rolls draw from all brackets up to specified maximum level.
4. Remove fixed-buy option for merits - random rolls only.
Any option seen as increasing "choice" is likely to be popular. Any option that removes "choice" - even if one of the choices on offer was almost certainly inferior on every level - is likely to be seen as a nerf.
To clarify: the goal of all these suggestions is to put more, and more varied, recipes into circulation, on the assumption that low recipe supply is the main issue.
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OK, got some data for Chriffer's discussion farther upthread. Even more sparse and random than Smurphy's.
I picked three "nice but not top end" recipes. Gift of the Ancients: Defense, Numina: Heal, and Touch of Death: Dam/End/Rech.
Crafted times for the 5th most recent sale were MUCH longer in all cases (sometimes going back 9 months, hero AND villainside.) But for recipes, heroside had 5 sales much faster in almost all cases, especially the unpopular levels.
GoTA: Defense (Vill | hero)
L30 3/07 | 3/25
L31 12/20 | 3/28
L32 2/22 | 3/31
L33 1/09 | 3/15
L34 3/01 | 3/10
L35 2/19 | 3/10
Numina's Heal:
L30 3/29 | 3/28
L31 3/15 | 2/27
L32 3/02 | 3/14
L33 3/14 | 3/12
L34 3/09 | 4/05
L35 3/08 | 4/06
Touch of Death, Dam/End/Rech:
L30 3/03 | 3/14
L31 2/08 | 3/31
L32 3/10 | 3/16
L33 3/24 | 3/16
L34 2/11 | 3/16
L35 4/02 | 4/03
Pretend for a second that you get even spacing, so the 5th most recent is a good proxy for "how often they come up".
If you set the bar for "Dramatically faster" around 66% faster, there are no cases where villainside is dramatically faster, and eight cases where heroside was.
If you set it at around 33% faster, there are two cases where villainside was dramatically faster and ten or eleven cases where heroside was.
In the worst cases, like Numina's Heal (L35), heroside is about five times faster.
I may not be competing with as many people villainside, but there's only one of me and if only one recipe a week moves, I'm going to get really frustrated if someone outbids me.
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I think someone mentioned this, or a variation of this, above. If not, well, I take all the credit.
How about if we can just craft down levels of the IOs? So if we have a lvl 40 recipe, we can craft it at any level below 40? Obv, a lvl 50, which are the more common, could be crafted for any level. This would alleviate pretty much all the low-mid level shortages, no? And yeah, there are IOs that top out before 50, but those are still far more available at the top end than elsewhere so would still help out a bit.
Big downside of this, though, is that it would dry out demand for the low-mid level stuff, since everyone would just try to buy the higher level stuff (which will initially be in greater supply, though this may correct w/the higher demand) and craft down. One way to work around this would be to make crafting down more expensive, so there'd be an incentive to buy at the actual level you wanted. A better way would be my original suggestion to let us vendor stuff, but it stays "in stock" for ppl to pick up at vendor prices x2.
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Yes, something like that has been mentioned in the past. |
Originally Posted by dave_p
I think someone mentioned this, or a variation of this, above. If not, well, I take all the credit.
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(the idea needs to be kicked every now and then though or it will get buried with all the bad ones)
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If it's a lower-level TF (35 or under), I'll run it with a level-locked alt so the merits are spent at that lower level. I try to limit my 50s to the TFs that are levels 38+.
I do find it a bit incongruous as an overall design that enhancements with smaller enhancement numbers have more utility with regards to set bonuses than higher level ones. Some might say that adds texture to planning a build, but I'm not sure how many are that meticulous about it.
If myself and a few others are correct and the Devs are experimenting with Cross-server instancing; this would be a tremendous boon to the entire game, especially redside market woes.
I've made a few suggestions for functional money sinks (something we gravely need in this game) The problem with implementing a money sink that works is that it must be something everyone WANTs to use, it can't simply be an optional QoL addition to the game.
Meaning any money sink that WORKs will most likely be disliked.
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I've posted several threads demonstrating the opposite over the years, alas for the forum monster and sofware upgrade. Smurphy also fails to include the very relevant timeline for various recipes. Time between sales blue side generally kicks sand in the face of redside. In the thread I posted comparing the various Positron's Blast recipes back in the day hero side consistently delivered five dates within the last month, villain side regularly exhibited numbers stretching back 6 months or longer.|
Originally Posted by Chriffer
Actual data demonstrates this statement to be hyperbole. In fact, many desirable items are often more available on villainside.
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This was before merits so I'm sure things are different now, but it's been my experience that desireable items are still wildly more available blue side than red.
Level 50 is the only place the BM doesn't absolutely stink on ice, and even there it tends to lag the hero market.
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Originally Posted by Fulmens
If you set the bar for "Dramatically faster" around 66% faster, there are no cases where villainside is dramatically faster, and eight cases where heroside was.
If you set it at around 33% faster, there are two cases where villainside was dramatically faster and ten or eleven cases where heroside was. In the worst cases, like Numina's Heal (L35), heroside is about five times faster. |
i see fulmens beat me to the point, and did it better- kudos, sir!
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Originally Posted by Nethergoat
I've posted several threads demonstrating the opposite over the years, alas for the forum monster and sofware upgrade. Smurphy also fails to include the very relevant timeline for various recipes. Time between sales blue side generally kicks sand in the face of redside. In the thread I posted comparing the various Positron's Blast recipes back in the day hero side consistently delivered five dates within the last month, villain side regularly exhibited numbers stretching back 6 months or longer.
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Code:
Red Blue 72 44 29 45 1 0 4 39 1 17 0 0 4 27 1 12 0 6 2 0 39 35 0 1 2 10 3 0 7 12 11 3 2 21 2 5 2 8 3 4 15 2 3 5 13 2 1 1 1 1 1 57 0 0 6 2 15 9 240 368
Villains CAN usually sell their stuff and buy what they want. Villains most often should not save up and buy a specific recipe via merits. The key point to understand is "less volume" and "less availability" does not necessarily equate to "cannot sell what you find and buy what you want."
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I remember when merits first came out this was not the case. There was someone who showed that particular pool A recipes that were not in the random roll list would be worth more when crafted and sold than the average random roll and IIRC there was someone else who showed that at a particular time the random roll was worth a little less on average than direct purchase for pool C. |
Originally Posted by Nethergoat
Lots of people have the misapprehension that random rolls only get you junk (I call this the Evil Ryu Fallacy) so they save up and buy what they want.
The old system basically forced everyone to roll, which generated excess for the market. Merits encourage safety first types and people who are bad at math NOT to roll, which saps supply. If folks could trade merits some would roll, sure, but many would just accumulate big piles to blow on the specific shiny they wanted for their builds. /edit forgot villains, who can't usually sell their stuff and buy what they want like heroes- in their case, saving merits and buying specific recipes is probably the most efficient way to go about things. |
I don't know what the current numbers are, has anyone done the analysis and shared it recently ?
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How about "cannot sell what you find and buy what you want in what you consider a reasonable timeframe."|
Originally Posted by Chriffer
Villains CAN usually sell their stuff and buy what they want. Villains most often should not save up and buy a specific recipe via merits. The key point to understand is "less volume" and "less availability" does not necessarily equate to "cannot sell what you find and buy what you want."
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Or: "cannot sell what you find and buy what you want in what you consider a reasonable timeframe compared to your experiences heroside."
Because this is the crux of the problem in my mind. It is not "separate but equal," it is "separate and one is clearly superior to the other in terms of meeting my needs and those of many others."
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The old system basically forced everyone to roll, which generated excess for the market. Merits encourage safety first types and people who are bad at math NOT to roll, which saps supply.
If folks could trade merits some would roll, sure, but many would just accumulate big piles to blow on the specific shiny they wanted for their builds.
/edit
forgot villains, who can't usually sell their stuff and buy what they want like heroes- in their case, saving merits and buying specific recipes is probably the most efficient way to go about things.
I roll when I am lvl 30-35 but after that it is better to wait and save them up and buy what I want.
I would love to roll, however at lvl 50 I can not get lower lvl recipes. If I could pick the lvl then I would roll. I don't want lvl 50 LOtG's and such. I want them to be useful when I Exmp/Mal down for TF/SF's.
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