How come we have no red servers yet???
By
Accualt,
Posted on: 2005-11-01 20:08 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
[ QUOTE ]
And not only that, but WoW and Guild Wars -still- sell for $49.99.
[/ QUOTE ]
Oh no, Tony Hawk Underground 2 and Halo 2 are both selling for 19.99, too.
The Playstation 2 and X-Box are DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED.
Current Badge Hunter: Plot Device (Rad/Thermal/Dark) - 1,268 Xbox Live: Friggin Taser
King of Electricity, Lead Inmate running the Carl and Sons asylum, the "Man" behind the Establishment, Given Honor in Hat Form By Paragon City (Favorite Forum Poster 2006!), Master of Ceremonies of the Fair Use Law podcast
[ QUOTE ]
You should apply for a position at a fortune 500 company Armsman, since you can make such amazing deductions with anecdotal numbers and such.
[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks, again, the numbers are easy for people to see for themselves using the 'Find Team Member' function; and AGAIN I was just reporting what I've seen; so take that as you will.
I DO find it Interesting that Statesman always refers to MMORPGchart.com's numbers, but never the actual numbers posted by NCSoft itself where you CAN see subscrber actual hard subscription and usage number (just look at the MX-Excel spreadsheet they have - on opening it, while the tabs are in Korean; the info is tabulated and in English). My point is: The numbers ARE EASILY available to Jack and Co; yet he likes to refer to Sir Bruce's numbers, which even Sir Bruce himself admits are often speculation on his part because many games DO NOT publically publish numbers.
Again, I'm just saying that for such a major ealease (and I've been through all SoE expansion releases through 2004); the subscriber 'jump' in numbers that I've seen so far with CoV is modest to non-exsistent, meaning that they seem to have brought in a number of folks to replace those that have left, or ARE planing on leaving.
Look, I myself am still listed as a paying/active subscriber because you can't post here on this BBS WITHOUT an active CoH or CoV subscription. I know the date my subscription runs out, and I plan to cancel a few days before to be certain there's no 'billing mixup' where I get charged again for another 3 months.
I've certainly made no secret of how I feel, and if you look at the full text of what I posted here (and not just the portion Statesman quoted); I fully admit that once NCSoft post the actual 4th quarter 2005 number to December (which should appear in Feb. 2006); everyone can see for themselves what effect I5 and I6 and ED had an the overall subscriber base).
It may in fact turn out that CoV will be considered a huge success and such; I'm just saying that from where I stand, the fact that CoH started with about 190,000 subscriptions at launch in the US only; and has dropped to about 140 COMBINED (128,000 US/ 12,000 UK) at the last posted report in March 2005) doesn't seem to be a raging success. There's reports that it jumped to 167,000 total US/UK subscribers as of last June 2005.
But still, all this points to a shrinking subscriber base when compared to the game's launch in April 2004; and given all the duscussion going on, I havbe my doubts that the subscriber base will GROW as one woul expect aftyer a major expansion release - it may turn over (ie you get about the same number in new players to replace players leaving); but for a MMORPG to be a success; that's not the pattern you want to see during/after an expansions release.
But again, the actual numbers should be available in a few months. Jack COULD BE right; but sorry, with what I'm seeing currently, I kinda doubt that the numbers will hold.
But, I've said it before and I'll say it again. if this is something that interests you; go see for yoruself and draw your own conclusions. The tools and info are out there.
If Jack ends up being right, good for him. I'm voicing my opinion simply becaue I don't like the change brought to the game via ED; nor the (in my opinion) underhanded way it was announced.
The successful MMORPGs GROW their subscriber base in the first 2 years and then either seem to maintain it, or shed it and die/close (AC2 anyone?). All the curent PUBLISHED numbers to date show that CoH has so far failed to grow beyond the numbers it had at launch in April 2004.
If after all the dust settles, future published numbers show that that all the recent changes (including ED); and the release of CoV show that's no longer the case and CoH has in fact expanded it's subscriber base beyond what it had at Launch, I'll happily eat crow.
You cite the NCSoft site but dont use their June Numbers ?
A plot of the numbers
Number dropped aroun the lauch of WoW. Who would have thought that the most popular MMO in the world would have taken some folks from here ?
Seriously, knock WoW or not, it is the biggest (overtook LII this Summer).
I'll update the chart tomorrow with the 3rd Quarter Numbers, if I can.
EDIT
I pulled up the Lehman Brothers Report. They arr predicting sales of 250K copies of CoV in 2005 and a further 115K copies in the 1st Half of 2006. They alos comment that this forecast is believed to be conservative.
there si some fascinating reading in there about playtimes for L, L2 and WoW for example in Internet cafes etc. (Did you hear about that Guy in Kor.... (withers under Cuppa's glare))
It is an analysts report, so usual disclaimers about forward looking statements, not making investment decisiosn based upon this etc..
Interesting to read though.
@Catwhoorg "Rule of Three - Finale" Arc# 1984
@Mr Falkland Islands"A Nation Goes Rogue" Arc# 2369 "Toasters and Pop Tarts" Arc#116617
This conspiracy theory goes all the way to MMORPGchart.com!
Who knows... perhaps even the White House is in on this.
Current Badge Hunter: Plot Device (Rad/Thermal/Dark) - 1,268 Xbox Live: Friggin Taser
King of Electricity, Lead Inmate running the Carl and Sons asylum, the "Man" behind the Establishment, Given Honor in Hat Form By Paragon City (Favorite Forum Poster 2006!), Master of Ceremonies of the Fair Use Law podcast
White House ? No
It goes Deeper than that.
@Catwhoorg "Rule of Three - Finale" Arc# 1984
@Mr Falkland Islands"A Nation Goes Rogue" Arc# 2369 "Toasters and Pop Tarts" Arc#116617
I'm amazed no one has yet answered that the reason server population is low, everyone's on the boards...
Boards ?
We get boards with this forum game thingy ?
@Catwhoorg "Rule of Three - Finale" Arc# 1984
@Mr Falkland Islands"A Nation Goes Rogue" Arc# 2369 "Toasters and Pop Tarts" Arc#116617
[ QUOTE ]
I DO find it Interesting that Statesman always refers to MMORPGchart.com's numbers, but never the actual numbers posted by NCSoft itself
[/ QUOTE ]
He does?? Where?
BTW: I reiterate: Sir Bruce isn't keeping his site up to date any longer:
[ QUOTE ]
October 20, 2005
Yes, I am alive. Ive been completely out of action for the past few months, so Im afraid Ive been unable to update my research, or keep previous commitments, or answer all of my email enquiries. Im trying to get caught up this weekend, however, so apologies all around and I hope to have a new update out soon.
[/ QUOTE ]
[b]Virtue[/b]
Lady Mantis, Dark/empathy defender
Woman in Purdah, DM/regen scrapper
Gravity Monkey, Grav/kin controller
Stone Woman, Stone/stone tanker
Freyja Incarnate, Fire/invuln. tanker
Head Shrinker, Ill/FF controller
Blowup Doll, AR/dev blaster
Geek of Darkness, Dark/dark defender
[ QUOTE ]
Boards ?
We get boards with this forum game thingy ?
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes... I spun a 4 so now I get to go to college...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also - another comment on discounted games - currently, City of Heroes is $29.99. Certain stores can run sales - like Lineage 2 is free with a Guild Wars purchase at a local chain.
[/ QUOTE ]
Uh... Not at the largest retailer in the world, Wal-Mart... They have been selling CoH for $19.96 for many months now.
I dont really care much about this conversation, actually agree with Statesman on this, but to say that CoH retails at $29.99 and blatantly ignore Wal-Mart, is well... You be the judge.
[/ QUOTE ]
And not only that, but WoW and Guild Wars -still- sell for $49.99.
[/ QUOTE ]i saw WoW at wal mart this weekend for $39.99. not sure when it dropped but it has
[ QUOTE ]
I DO find it Interesting that Statesman always refers to MMORPGchart.com's numbers, but never the actual numbers posted by NCSoft itself where you CAN see subscrber actual hard subscription and usage number (just look at the MX-Excel spreadsheet they have - on opening it, while the tabs are in Korean; the info is tabulated and in English). My point is: The numbers ARE EASILY available to Jack and Co; yet he likes to refer to Sir Bruce's numbers, which even Sir Bruce himself admits are often speculation on his part because many games DO NOT publically publish numbers.
[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you think SirBruce gets his numbers?
Yeesh.
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I DO find it Interesting that Statesman always refers to MMORPGchart.com's numbers, but never the actual numbers posted by NCSoft itself where you CAN see subscrber actual hard subscription and usage number (just look at the MX-Excel spreadsheet they have - on opening it, while the tabs are in Korean; the info is tabulated and in English). My point is: The numbers ARE EASILY available to Jack and Co; yet he likes to refer to Sir Bruce's numbers, which even Sir Bruce himself admits are often speculation on his part because many games DO NOT publically publish numbers.
[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you think SirBruce gets his numbers?
Yeesh.
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[/ QUOTE ]
BURN!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I DO find it Interesting that Statesman always refers to MMORPGchart.com's numbers, but never the actual numbers posted by NCSoft itself where you CAN see subscrber actual hard subscription and usage number (just look at the MX-Excel spreadsheet they have - on opening it, while the tabs are in Korean; the info is tabulated and in English). My point is: The numbers ARE EASILY available to Jack and Co; yet he likes to refer to Sir Bruce's numbers, which even Sir Bruce himself admits are often speculation on his part because many games DO NOT publically publish numbers.
[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you think SirBruce gets his numbers?
Yeesh.
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[/ QUOTE ]If he ever get's the chance my villain will gladly murder you in your sleep, but right now i love you.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I DO find it Interesting that Statesman always refers to MMORPGchart.com's numbers, but never the actual numbers posted by NCSoft itself where you CAN see subscrber actual hard subscription and usage number (just look at the MX-Excel spreadsheet they have - on opening it, while the tabs are in Korean; the info is tabulated and in English). My point is: The numbers ARE EASILY available to Jack and Co; yet he likes to refer to Sir Bruce's numbers, which even Sir Bruce himself admits are often speculation on his part because many games DO NOT publically publish numbers.
[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you think SirBruce gets his numbers?
Yeesh.
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[/ QUOTE ]
I also think it's easier for the Dev team to just type in MMORPGchart.com in any computer they're at, instead of remembering where that PDF document is. Plus, they can check on how the competition is doing 
[ QUOTE ]
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[/ QUOTE ]
Don't worry, those are the same people who 10 years ago said "Monthy fee?! Pfft, that will NEVER catch on! This game is finished!"
And they were probably talking about either EQ or UO.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I DO find it Interesting that Statesman always refers to MMORPGchart.com's numbers, but never the actual numbers posted by NCSoft itself where you CAN see subscrber actual hard subscription and usage number (just look at the MX-Excel spreadsheet they have - on opening it, while the tabs are in Korean; the info is tabulated and in English). My point is: The numbers ARE EASILY available to Jack and Co; yet he likes to refer to Sir Bruce's numbers, which even Sir Bruce himself admits are often speculation on his part because many games DO NOT publically publish numbers.
[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you think SirBruce gets his numbers?
Yeesh.
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[/ QUOTE ]
And yet again, Jack pops up to take another popshot when I said that if after all this is said and done if the posted numbers showed CoH was groing beyond it's original 190,000 subscribers that it staeted with, I'd happily eat crow.
Unless Jack want's to actually come out and post the current subscription numbers, show that it's grown since April 2004; and REALLY put me in my place.
But hey, it's the Internet, people often like to just quote snippets for a quick drive by (myself included on occassion).
States, these are the same type of people that stand around Times Square with a sign that reads "The End is Nigh, Repent!"... determined to see the black cloud surrounding every silver lining...
Gotta deal with the lag/rubberbanding issues with the 'improved' graphics engine though... can't very well appreciate the new shiny when it causes problems... thanks!
"City of Heroes. April 27, 2004 - August 31, 2012. Obliterated not with a weapon of mass destruction, not by an all-powerful supervillain... but by a cold-hearted and cowardly corporate suck-up."
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I DO find it Interesting that Statesman always refers to MMORPGchart.com's numbers, but never the actual numbers posted by NCSoft itself where you CAN see subscrber actual hard subscription and usage number (just look at the MX-Excel spreadsheet they have - on opening it, while the tabs are in Korean; the info is tabulated and in English). My point is: The numbers ARE EASILY available to Jack and Co; yet he likes to refer to Sir Bruce's numbers, which even Sir Bruce himself admits are often speculation on his part because many games DO NOT publically publish numbers.
[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you think SirBruce gets his numbers?
Yeesh.
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[/ QUOTE ]
And yet again, Jack pops up to take another popshot when I said that if after all this is said and done if the posted numbers showed CoH was groing beyond it's original 190,000 subscribers that it staeted with, I'd happily eat crow.
Unless Jack want's to actually come out and post the current subscription numbers, show that it's grown since April 2004; and REALLY put me in my place.
But hey, it's the Internet, people often like to just quote snippets for a quick drive by (myself included on occassion).
[/ QUOTE ]
Definitely got his taunt three-slotted.
My best guess as to the numbers that are actually playing the game right now would fall in the 220k range. I think that the September numbers (announced tomorrow) will be in the 170k range.
Now, that's just me.
Mr. Lithuania
Jessica to Nathan in bed: "I'm not really bad, Isaac just drew me that way."
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I DO find it Interesting that Statesman always refers to MMORPGchart.com's numbers, but never the actual numbers posted by NCSoft itself where you CAN see subscrber actual hard subscription and usage number (just look at the MX-Excel spreadsheet they have - on opening it, while the tabs are in Korean; the info is tabulated and in English). My point is: The numbers ARE EASILY available to Jack and Co; yet he likes to refer to Sir Bruce's numbers, which even Sir Bruce himself admits are often speculation on his part because many games DO NOT publically publish numbers.
[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you think SirBruce gets his numbers?
Yeesh.
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[/ QUOTE ]
Give it time States. Already cancelled my rebill. Looking ofr th epost saying that ED is going away. I'll come back when I do.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I DO find it Interesting that Statesman always refers to MMORPGchart.com's numbers, but never the actual numbers posted by NCSoft itself where you CAN see subscrber actual hard subscription and usage number (just look at the MX-Excel spreadsheet they have - on opening it, while the tabs are in Korean; the info is tabulated and in English). My point is: The numbers ARE EASILY available to Jack and Co; yet he likes to refer to Sir Bruce's numbers, which even Sir Bruce himself admits are often speculation on his part because many games DO NOT publically publish numbers.
[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you think SirBruce gets his numbers?
Yeesh.
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[/ QUOTE ]
Give it time States. Already cancelled my rebill. Looking ofr th epost saying that ED is going away. I'll come back when I do.
[/ QUOTE ]
Could I have a list of your under-35 character names?
Mr. Lithuania
Jessica to Nathan in bed: "I'm not really bad, Isaac just drew me that way."
[ QUOTE ]
Where do you think SirBruce gets his numbers?
Yeesh.
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[/ QUOTE ]
Heheh, not to get off topic (but I will)....I'm gonna use statesman's onw words in my next sig...
Statesman Quote:
"What's great is that...we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch..."
(I FOX newsed it up a bit though.)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's great is that people have been saying we're ddddoooommmeeedd since launch, and yet surprisingly, here we are.
[/ QUOTE ]
Don't worry, those are the same people who 10 years ago said "Monthy fee?! Pfft, that will NEVER catch on! This game is finished!"
And they were probably talking about either EQ or UO.
[/ QUOTE ]
Actually, there was no doubt that it would catch on... the question was whethor it was a viable economic model.
Back then (in the days when a 56K modem made you 733T) all the commercial interactive ORPGs (they weren't even MM yet) charged an hourly fee (Gemstone, Shadows of Yserbius, etc). AOL might have been the first to change that when they started charging per month for their service (which included Everwinter Nights). Coincidently (or not) everyone went crazy logging in the hours in that game, and it was soon afterward canceled.
Nowadays, the next big leap is the Guildwars model, which I don't think will become widespread, though I could be wrong. I think it is more likely for a group of games to be included in one monthly fee, say 25 bucks for COV/COH/CO?/Auto Assault/etc...
Yep, we had it rough back then... we didn't have x-rated gifs... we had ASCII porn, and we liked it that way! AND you had to memorise the Hayes command set, or they wouldn't let you hook up your modem to call the BBS... 16 color monitors we had. 16, I tell you!
/e falls asleep muttering
Heroes on Freedom Server
Chord - lvl 30 Rock 'n Roll Muse
Mr. Payback - lvl 12 Natural Tank
Caryatid - lvl 14 Magical Stone Tank
Chronobot - lvl 11 Tech Scrapper
Yeesh. He really is masochistic lately.
Jack, don't poke your playerbase RIGHT BEFORE you go touring. It ain't healthy. Some of these kids, they're so full of crap that it's messing with their judgement. They're liable to do anything, including taking a swing at your for "ruining" their favorite game.
[ QUOTE ]
Yeesh. He really is masochistic lately.
Jack, don't poke your playerbase RIGHT BEFORE you go touring. It ain't healthy. Some of these kids, they're so full of crap that it's messing with their judgement. They're liable to do anything, including taking a swing at your for "ruining" their favorite game.
[/ QUOTE ]
I have to agree wit hthe Journeyman on this one, States. Not everyone who might disagree with you will be able to distinguish fantasy from reality. My suggestion would be to rent the Popemobile. That should keep you safe enough to post all of the wisecracks you like. 
"I never said thank you." - Lt. Gordon
"And you'll never have to." - the Dark Knight
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After I5, some people were saying the same thing..."the game is a ghost town"...to which my reply was, "but we're gaining customers..." Naturally, my reply was dismissed.
And yet then good ole' SirBruce posted his MMP numbers - and City of Heroes was shown gaining subscribers. Odd, isn't it?
;-)
[/ QUOTE ]
There's also more people on the planet every day. You fail to make a valid point. Paragon City has turned into a "ghost town" in many aspects.
The game does seem like a ghost town now that everyone is split between CoH and CoV, plus the little add in hazard zones which occasionally see use.
I know that the server population bars don't show the same number of dots as they once did. Freedom used to be packed full, now it's rare to see another hero anywhere aside from a train station, gate, or a store in a zone.
I don't even recall the last time someone got into an arguement with me over KS'ing. That was at one point fairly commonplace.
Care to comment on that Statesman?
[/ QUOTE ]
I'd like to know how you are figuring all of this? Three servers are yellow every night. The server i'm on..Virtue...is always packed with people in CoH AND CoV. Atlas Plaza is just as busy as it always has been..maybe a bit more now...costume contests go on all through the evening.
I've seen more activity in the last two months than I have in a long time.heh