Why? The Answer is in NCsoft's August 8th Earnings Report


Adelie

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Starsman View Post
They were not. NCSoft wasted 96.7 million this past quarter to aquire Ntreev Soft, a casual online game company.

They hit the red, but only because they didnt expect some games, especially Aion, to dip in the micro-transaction side as harshly as it did during the quarter.

This does not mean that Aion lost money, it still made much more than CoH, but now they found themselves in the red. It would had been a one-quarter thing, but the laws of bad business dictate you cant let that go without cutting costs somewhere.

In the end Paragon Studio paid the price of aquiring an online mini-golf video game maker.
If you turn in a negative quarter after never having done so before, that's pretty much the definition of unprecedented.

Just because you don't like a decision doesn't make it a bad business decision.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brillig View Post
If you turn in a negative quarter after never having done so before, that's pretty much the definition of unprecedented.

Just because you don't like a decision doesn't make it a bad business decision.
It was unprecedented... but it was not "losing money". It was a one time transaction, badly calculated but a one time thing. It was not an ongoing loss.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brillig View Post
If you turn in a negative quarter after never having done so before, that's pretty much the definition of unprecedented.

Just because you don't like a decision doesn't make it a bad business decision.
I'ma edit this out since I misunderstood.


"I have something to say! It's better to burn out then to fade away!"

 

Posted

In the end, anyone that played Tabula Rasa knows this is standard procedure for NCsoft regarding US Games. They forged a letter in Richard Garriot's name (while he was in space quarantine!) to allude that he was leaving just so that NCsoft could fire him and force him to sell his stock at a low point costing him millions.....then they shut that game down.

Also, for those who want ammunition for the "They shuttered CoH for their servers" argument:

http://techland.time.com/2012/08/29/...me-experience/


Cpt. Shwan.
Virtue, AR/Dev Blaster, lvl 50+3, 3300+ Hours logged.
Created 8/20/2004 - Proud Captain of Hero Dawn!

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Starsman View Post
It was unprecedented... but it was not "losing money". It was a one time transaction, badly calculated but a one time thing. It was not an ongoing loss.
That makes me laugh almost as hard as EBITDA. A loss is a loss is a loss.

Well if we're going to toss out one-time events, let's disregard GW2 for a sec.

Looking at their costs breakdown for the past year, it seems that the best they are likely to come in at in Q3 is 117 bn Wn.

Now look at their revenues. Let's assume that AION stays flat (which could be optimistic). And that Lineage goes back down to Q1 levels (anyone follow that game? know what the spike was about?). Kill the small contribution from CoH. Their sales would be roughtl 111 bn Wn.

So outside of GW2, they're still losing money in Q3. And this is far from a worst case scenario.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by CptShwan View Post
Also, for those who want ammunition for the "They shuttered CoH for their servers" argument:

http://techland.time.com/2012/08/29/...me-experience/
Yeah. Because that link provides no ammunition for that argument at all.

How does having servers in three months help GW2 now?

It's an absurd argument. You don't shut down a profitable business line because of a temporary shortage in another.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brillig View Post
That makes me laugh almost as hard as EBITDA. A loss is a loss is a loss.
The statement I replied to claimed they were actively losing money.

A loss is a loss, yes. But there is a huge difference between losing a big amount once, and and leaking money because you are spending more in operations than you are earning.


 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubberlad View Post
In a word, it wasn't Cryptic Studios withholding license renewal that doomed CoH... It wasn't NCsoft hating on American gamers... At the end of the day, NCsoft was in the red and they cut the lowest-performing IP in their stable of games (and also the one with a significant mount of unjustifiable expense) just to rescue their bottom line... Can't say I blame them from an investment perspective. Unfortunately for all of us that turned out to be City of Heroes.
I'll agree with this analysis, but this just makes me wish CoH was with a smaller publisher who had a smaller stable of games.

I can't believe that CO is outperforming CoX, and I bet we're even close to DCUO at this point. Less profitable games than ours are out there staying open... they just don't belong to NCSoft.


Agua Man lvl 48 Water/Electric Blaster


"To die hating NCSoft for shutting down City of Heroes, that was Freedom."

 

Posted

Why don't you dig through the FY 06, FY 07 and FY 08 earning reports there and see how much staying power GW1 has? They'll still have server issues next year if they go down to 200,000 concurrent users on average (which they're marking around 400,000 right now)

NCsoft has reported that over 1,000,000 copies of GW2 has been bought, so I doubt they'll be in the red like you say either. Even a conservative estimate of 40 million in revenue will put it above Aion in terms of lion's share if Aion doesn't have a damn well good showing Q3.


Cpt. Shwan.
Virtue, AR/Dev Blaster, lvl 50+3, 3300+ Hours logged.
Created 8/20/2004 - Proud Captain of Hero Dawn!

 

Posted

I give up. Trying to get you people to actually understand financials and business is a waste of my time.


 

Posted

You should probably go back to your day job, advising Mr. Buffet apparently.


Cpt. Shwan.
Virtue, AR/Dev Blaster, lvl 50+3, 3300+ Hours logged.
Created 8/20/2004 - Proud Captain of Hero Dawn!

 

Posted

Not buying anything put out by NCSoft at this point. They've had plenty of time to cook their books in order to justify what they've done to us in order to losses elsewhere look less serious.

Now if that financial information was put forth by a legitimate and unbiased third party doing an audit of NCSoft, I'd believe it.


 

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Originally Posted by FloatingFatMan View Post
Lots of people are saying that. Forgive me, but... if you truly wanted to support the game, you'd have already been a paying subscriber.

Not pointing any fingers, but those who "were going to come back" have contributed greatly to this outcome.
That's unfair.

I have been dipping in and out of the game for several years and it's my right to do so. I have supported the game positively with my pocket and i suspect so have many of the others who "contributed."
Games like this will always have players coming and going and the designers know this from the outset. It's all about churn. These people that you cite did not contribute to the games fall, they contributed to the games 8 year success.

I blame enhancement divercification (and the nerfs) from all those years ago. The game never got those numbers back and left it weaker than it should have been.

I also blame NC for not advertising their super hero game when the very target market they should be targeting are out spending billions of dollars going to see the Avengers and all the other super hero movies. (which kind of implies that mid teens to early thirties types.the same people that enjoy gaming, actually are into super heroes.)


Don't get into a flap. It's only my opinion and I'm thick

Arc 56763 Lord Anarchys heaven

2 mission arc. Bring friends cause Lord Anarchy means business...

 

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Originally Posted by Golden Girl View Post
A bit, but porbably not enough - the dev team will cost more to fund than the servers.
That may be true directly.... but...

The servers that remain would be far more active. I have just moved my main to freedom a couple of weeks ago and I can tell you, without question, that an active server offers a FAR greater playing experience than a quiet one. By definition, that would mean that less players would quit and would, overtime, greatly improve the overall player base.


Don't get into a flap. It's only my opinion and I'm thick

Arc 56763 Lord Anarchys heaven

2 mission arc. Bring friends cause Lord Anarchy means business...

 

Posted

Why are we fixating on sales figures? Guild Wars is a game entirely funded by sales, yes, but City of Heroes is not. At one point it was entirely funded by subscription money, and was funded in large part by it right up until it shut down. Doesn't it make sense that sales numbers would be low?


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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
Samuel_Tow is the only poster that makes me want to punch him in the head more often when I'm agreeing with him than when I'm disagreeing with him.

 

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Originally Posted by Rylas View Post
Hmm... but isn't CoH performing better than CO? Perhaps they'd be tempted by owning a better performing game?
You can't really compare the two -- CO shares its engine (and much code) with both STO and the soontobereleased Neverwinter. A lot of improvements in one game get propagated to the other two.

And it also looks like Cryptic trains its new employees on CO and then bumps them up to the other games once they've learned the ropes.

Edit: so ... CO is cheap to maintain, starts new hires with training wheels.

I really don't think they'd want to deal with CoH's engine -- it'd fug up the internal workflow of the studio.


 

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Originally Posted by Rubberlad View Post
Again, they were faced with a Sophie's Choice moment: which of your MMO children are you going to give up just so the rest (along with your parent company) can survive? Looking at the numbers it doesn't make sense to give up the better performing titles. CoH was tied with GW1 as the rock-bottom performer and the success of GW2 has pretty much guaranteed the survival rate of GW1 (for now anyway).

Meanwhile NCsoft is operating in the red; that's a frightening prospect for investors so they had to do *something* to get their bottom line back in the black or risk losing investors, a company buyout and/or going out of business permanently if the negative profit margins continued. I wish they'd waited one more quarter before acting this hastily as GW2 sales would've saved the day but they didn't - mostly likely because they couldn't afford to...

I don't envy the decision they had to make - nor do I like it - but it is what it is.
At face value, that doesn't make a lot of sense. Sure, you lose the expenses of running Paragon Studios if you kill the game, but you also lose the revenue of City of Heroes. Which means, if what people are saying is true and CoH itself was in the black while the publisher was running in the red, in the end the net result is simply the publisher running a little further into the red.

Just to throw out hypothetical numbers:

NCSoft:

Net Income: 4,500
Net Expenses: 4,700

CoH:

Net Income: 500
Net Expenses: 460

After it happens:

NCSoft:

Net Income: 4,000
Net Expenses: 4,240

They aren't any better off. They are stil in the red. They are just $40 further into the red.


 

Posted

So. Money.

Likely that's the true killer of this game we have come to call home for a great deal of our lives.

However....last night as I was idly strolling/flying/jumping around zones and reminiscing....I heard several people talking about how NCSoft stocks were plummeting even as they watched and updated.

D'you think that the "lack of profit" of City of was a cause for its demise?
Well, we as gamers and customers just showed a corporation just how mistaken it was...if indeed the stocks fell as several people were claiming.

I can believe what they said, too. Gamers are a pretty faithful bunch, to a degree. When that totally asinine move was announced by NCSoft, I could see a boatload of investors going, "Time to bail!" for the simple reason that...we...the customer..the loyal fans...were hurt. Betrayed.

Corporate heads, VP's, board members...go home to live in forty room mansions. The people that the corporation employ...the people that MAKE the product/provide support for the product/generally work for "the man"...go home to live in an apartment with forty people to a room.

We need to change this social injustice. Time for greed to take a back seat.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brillig View Post
I give up. Trying to get you people to actually understand financials and business is a waste of my time.
Alright, that's enough.

I was open, honest, apologetic and appreciative of your invaluable input until I saw this "you people" nonsense - and you lost me completely. You've got good information to share so please find a way to share it without talking down to folks. If you have a more reasonable and factual argument to make regarding why NCsoft pulled the plug, then please make it - but be as thoughtful, patient and down to earth as you can be without making this "you people" distinction. The last thing we need now is anyone throwing about divisive labels because they're upset that they're not being heard.


We're all shocked, we're all grieving and we're all trying to make sense of what's happening here - and why it happened. We may never get a real answer but right now all we have to go on in terms of concrete proof is NCsoft's earnings report - and the most recent report dated August 8th is the first to show an overall loss of operational profit and net income for the company and that fact *cannot* be disputed. So let's start there (because its as good as place to start as anywhere else).

Everyone in this thread has an equal voice and everyone is being heard. Now please, stop throwing a tantrum and make your case, make it plainly and use the facts available as best you can. Regardless of how you interpret those facts, please pose your argument in such a way that EVERYONE can understand and appreciate what it is you're trying to say.

We're all each other has now - so please, let's not lower ourselves to petty bickering.

Please.


Thank you.


 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sister_Twelve View Post
After it happens:

NCSoft:

Net Income: 4,000
Net Expenses: 4,240

They aren't any better off. They are stil in the red. They are just $40 further into the red.
Yes, but in the meanwhile they free up cash -- cash that might be used better elsewhere. I don't know enough about the games' industry in general or NCSoft's situation in particular to judge the decision, but I can see why a business might reasonably decide to cut a marginally profitable product in order to reallocate resources.

All I think any of us can say for sure is that the decision sucks, and that Paragon deserved better.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze View Post
Nice build

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Samuel_Tow View Post
Why are we fixating on sales figures? Guild Wars is a game entirely funded by sales, yes, but City of Heroes is not. At one point it was entirely funded by subscription money, and was funded in large part by it right up until it shut down. Doesn't it make sense that sales numbers would be low?
Sales figures is a catch all term for all monies that is earnt by that title, either by subscriptions, microtransactions, box sales or account services.


 

Posted

It appears to me that CoH's sales were pretty much flat Q1-Q2. I can't imagine the expenses changed much in that time, so the performance was pretty much static. There is nothing in these figures to suggest that anything has significantly changed. We can't actually see costs for a game on its own or Paragon studios on its own.

It sounds like they just want to retrench and concentrate on games they know will sell in their core market of Korea and this isn't one of those, and I'm guessing neither was the other Paragon Studios project.

If they have tried to sell the game/studio on and nobody was buying, that's one thing, but simply explaining that, and the reason they're getting out of this market would remove a lot of the animosity.

This game has been notable for its great openness and communication, it's a shame the parent company can't live up to Paragon Studios quality in this area.


It's true. This game is NOT rocket surgery. - BillZBubba

 

Posted

I'm afraid I can't see where this report points to a problem with CoH. I see a massive drop in sales for Aion and a massive drop in the Korean market. I also see a drop in profit due to "one-off" expensive (such as severance pay). No where in the report do I see any indication that CoH is causing a problem for the company. In fact, it appears the CoH is a relatively small piece of their overall picture that is completely overshadowed by their other areas.

Speaking from experience, cutting a revenue source because it's small is not a good way to do business. If your business is spending more than it earns then your best choice is to eliminate costs as much as possible while keeping all of your sources of revenue, even small ones. If Paragon Studios was consistently costing NCSoft more than it was earning and there was no way to cut costs then discontinuing the game would be a sound judgement call, but I see no evidence of that in this report.

But the biggest failure here has nothing to do with whether CoH was profitable or not, it has to do with bad community relations. The way they handled the situation has damaged their public relations and now they will have to spend even more money on marketing to try to overcome it.

In a world of mega corporations, the one voice the consumer has is with his or her money and I, for one, will not be giving any more of mine to NCSoft. It is the best and the only way we can show them how much we dislike what they have done.

(The flip side of that is, of course, that I will be taking my money to where ever our devs end up next.)


 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by lionsbane_EU View Post
That's unfair.

I have been dipping in and out of the game for several years and it's my right to do so. I have supported the game positively with my pocket and i suspect so have many of the others who "contributed."
Games like this will always have players coming and going and the designers know this from the outset. It's all about churn. These people that you cite did not contribute to the games fall, they contributed to the games 8 year success.

I blame enhancement divercification (and the nerfs) from all those years ago. The game never got those numbers back and left it weaker than it should have been.

I also blame NC for not advertising their super hero game when the very target market they should be targeting are out spending billions of dollars going to see the Avengers and all the other super hero movies. (which kind of implies that mid teens to early thirties types.the same people that enjoy gaming, actually are into super heroes.)
Unfair? Perhaps. But also true. If you're not supporting with either market purchases or subscription fees, then you're contributing to the reasons for cancellation.


@FloatingFatMan

Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

 

Posted

sigh

Okay, I think we can all agree that the vast majority of players in this game are from the North American (aka Western Hemisphere) and Europe. The Q2 earnings from these two regions is 6482 million KW or 5% of NCSoft's earnings excluding royalty income. CoH earnings was 2855 million KW. If nearly all of CoH income comes from the NA and EU regions then CoH represents 44% of the income from these regions.

Yes the game is a small fish when compared to their hugely successful games in Asia (Korea, Japan and Taiwan represent 95% of their income base) but we are a big chunk in our neck of the woods. Now perhaps NCSoft is looking at withdrawing development support from the NA and EU regions now that GW2 is done since all the one time sales of that game will bolster the income from NA and EU regions for sure in Q4.

Their major MMOs from Asia obviously aren't hitting it off here that well. Maybe they decided they simply don't grok us and write the region off, just cash in on the GW2 sales for the short term, maybe finance an expansion pack or two if sales of the core game continues strong, but if I worked for ArenaNet, I'll be worry that their owners won't be interested in another costly multiyear development cycle for a GW3.

And depending how far along Wildstar is coming along (as well as whether or not they think it'll play in Asia), they may go all Studio 38 on them as well.


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