CoX Quarter Earnings - Q1 2011


0zymandous

 

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Y'know, if we're lucky, this game will just become one of those MMOs with a devoted core of customers that just plinks along throughout the years. There's at least a couple out there already like that.


 

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...
Well if someone else is going to play with line charts I'll just hang around pretending to be Bugglegupp.


 

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Originally Posted by Pebblebrook View Post
Though i see where Daemodand is coming from. They're making it more efficient for "old-fashioned business reasons" as Second Measure said. My first thought after seeing that was a way to cut cost and it would be completely understandable to me in light of the numbers.
Exactly so. Game supports X number of players on Z amount of hardware, the question becomes can you reliably support X number of players on Z-A hardware just as well, given that Z-A has the advantage of lower cost.


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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
Isn't Guild Wars a no-subscription game? There's a box cost, but isn't it essentially a free to play game?
When I say "F2P" I do not mean Buy to Play "B2P". There is a big difference between the two models, as we both know.

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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
The truth of the matter is that no one really understands "free to play" as a model yet: its simply too new for there to be any real experts floating around.
F2P as a model is not new at all, and has been shown to work by various companies and game titles which I cannot name due to the forum rules. NCSoft has shown a distaste for it, I believe there was an article recently on Massively with an NCSoft exec talking about that.


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Originally Posted by Daemodand View Post
So 67,000 accounts? Of course, you'd have to adjust for pay services and boosters, but that sounds about right. Apparently we see servers in the yellow and red due to the downscaling of hardware (with another round of downscaling having just been tested).
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Originally Posted by ransim View Post
Yes thats right hardware downscaling thats why they want us to try and get more then 3500 people on at once to test load on Freedom on the 27th.

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Originally Posted by Daemodand View Post
If I wanted to see if my current population could be supported by less hardware, a stress-test is exactly what I'd do.
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Originally Posted by Zombie Man View Post
It can't. You can't remove hardware and expect a capacity increase.

This isn't Star Trek physics where you take out half your memory but just maybe if you reverse the polarity of your hard drives you just might get extra capacity.

They upgraded. That's why Freedom isn't in the red as much as it used to. Now they want to see just what the new limits are so they know where to set the limits for the server queue.
Didn't you guys get the memo? The hardware was pulled, sent back in time to another warehouse studio so they could make a film of the moon landing.


 

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DoomDOOOMDoomDoomDoomDoom
DoomDoomDoomDoomDOOOMDoomDoomDoomDoom



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Originally Posted by McCharraigin View Post
Then why are they making it so hard for soloers and small teams to do the end game?

Looking at this info, You would think they would want to keep all their subscribers, yet I know a few soloers like myself who have quit the game because there is nothing for us in the endgame as it stands currently.

Devs, Marketing, whoever this concerns, I beg of you, I love this game....keep it afloat...please.

Lisa.
Um, the problem with that, is that it's the exact same content for people that are anti-social and unwilling to adapt or get along. The game survived for most of its life before the incarnate system, so your argument is proven false already.


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It is interesting to see so many people speculate and go on without the slightest idea of NC Soft's actual thoughts regarding the viability of this game. Does anyone have any idea of what NC Soft considers viable? The CoX sub numbers? Etc etc etc.

Anyway, I love the raids but the theme behind them really stinks. It has driven away a good friend but I am sure he'll be back Do these Praetoria trials to unlock our super-duper powers? Maybe for a couple but we need other areas. Come on devs, use your imagination and give us something wild and new.


 

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This again, huh?


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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
Samuel_Tow is the only poster that makes me want to punch him in the head more often when I'm agreeing with him than when I'm disagreeing with him.

 

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Originally Posted by JayboH View Post
Um, the problem with that, is that it's the exact same content for people that are anti-social and unwilling to adapt or get along. The game survived for most of its life before the incarnate system, so your argument is proven false already.
thats the one good thing about soloists. they can never get it together enough to leave en masse, can they?

(yes, its a joke, calm down)


 

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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post

The problem with converting an existing subscription-based game into a F2P game is what do you do with all your long-time subscribers? Paragon has said many times that they have excellent retension of players, which means a lot of City of Heroes players have been here for a very long time supporting the game. What do you do with all those long time veteran players that form the backbone of your customer base? The challenge is making free to play something that offers a compelling value proposition to your existing subscriber base, and that's not a trivial problem to solve.
You change their @Global and hope they go away quietly?


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Originally Posted by Daemodand View Post
When I say "F2P" I do not mean Buy to Play "B2P". There is a big difference between the two models, as we both know.
The difference is apparently nineteen ninety five.


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F2P as a model is not new at all, and has been shown to work by various companies and game titles which I cannot name due to the forum rules. NCSoft has shown a distaste for it, I believe there was an article recently on Massively with an NCSoft exec talking about that.
I would laugh in the face of anyone claiming to be an expert on the free to play model, because while its fairly well understood how it works for microgames like Farmville, the precise way it works or doesn't work in class A MMOs is about as well understood as quantum chromodynamics is by Elmo. And I'm quite sure I can name just as many instances of F2P in the MMO space as you can: I've studied the model quite thoroughly.

As to NCSoft's position on the matter, you're probably thinking about an interview with Jeremy Gaffney that Massively titled "Subscriptions more profitable than microtransactions." Of course, what he actually said about microtransactions was:

Q: Given you’re wearing both developer and exec hats, where do you stand on the creative issues around free-to-play and microtransactions? How much can the business model be reconciled with not compromising the game design?

Jeremy Gaffney: My take on it is that there are certain games for which it’s very appropriate, and others for which it’s really not. The kind of games which really benefit from it as those where there’s a low barrier of entry, you can get in quickly, but on the other there’s benefits to sustaining. We’ve seen some really big successes recently - League of Legends and similar games like that, where it’s really easy entry but you can double down on the microtransactions. As we’re doing it with more of our projects, I think what we’re finding is it’s a really great way to sustain a user base that’s very passionate about a game. It gives a way to invest in it. In Korea you would see for a long a time that people on the Korean version of eBay would spend something like four times as much money as they would actually pay to NCsoft. What’s interesting about that is it means in a way you’re not serving your customers’ needs, because they care enough that they want to spend this money. You’re not giving them an outlet to do it. It’s a very interesting situation.


He went on to say:

Q: How much is NCsoft still experimenting? Are you anywhere near to a unified, de facto business model for the time being?


Jeremy Gaffney: We’re a developer-friendly company all around, so our developers chase different business models that they find interesting. We don’t have a boiler plate that we stick on all our games. Guild Wars 2 has been in development obviously for a bit; Guild Wars 1 really defined, I think, the ’free’ MMO in terms of having a different business model than anything else. So we’re agnostic - I don’t think there’s a company philosophy on that so much as developers know what’s best for their games, so let the developer dictate that.

Q: You’re not feeling that the subscription age is over then?

Jeremy Gaffney: No, there’s still a lot of money being made in subscriptions right now. Worldwide there’s a lot of money being made in transactions, but there’s probably a bit more money really being made in subscriptions worldwide.

Q: How much do you think the trend of big launches from the last few years switching to free-to-play will continue?

Jeremy Gaffney: I’m not sure free-to-play is really the kiss of death, or even a resurrection method, because the games that moved over to it have made a bunch of money from it. There’s been more interest from the big publishers in moving over to it early in the life cycle. You’ll probably see more games from big publishers which launch with free-to-play from the outset. But because that perception exists, I think it also makes publishers leery to move over to it because they don’t want the perception of "oh, hey, we’re shifting over because there are fewer players now." Players in many ways demand it, you know. Anecdotally in our industry there are lot of games that have resurrected themselves by moving over to that model, players flocking in, lot more money to be made off it. In a lot of ways it’s better for players because you get to opt-in only to as much as you want to. If a game’s that important to you, you’re probably willing to put that much more money into it - or want to even, because they experience more and more of the content.


Yep, sounds like NCSoft absolutely detests the F2P model and doesn't understand it at all.


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Declining numbers and people claiming the game is fine : what else is new?
A report on the numbers report thread

The usual assurance that players should just wait until the next issue, which is bound to bring back dozens of thousands, hasn't made an appearance today. Another notable argument missing is the family favorite exams/finals/school/holidays excuse.

Pointing fingers at the economy is still going as strong as ever. Other infallible evidence for the wellbeingness of the game includes anecdotes on the behavior of a few dozen individuals.

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OP updated with this (as requested) :


 

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Originally Posted by Nihilii View Post
-- random guy on the internet, 19/05/2011
Pointless post in a pointless thread, just as one would expect on the Internet.


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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
Samuel_Tow is the only poster that makes me want to punch him in the head more often when I'm agreeing with him than when I'm disagreeing with him.

 

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Originally Posted by Neuronia View Post
My point was more to how sustainable it is.
If you split three million by 15, that gives you 200,000 accounts.
Now...chances are there AREN'T 200,000 accounts. I'd gauge it at closer 110,000 to 125,000, more or less and declining. That isn't terrible by any means, but you'd have to think they can't keep all these humans employed and new content coming out for free for an indefinite period.

Maybe F2P with bonuses isn't a bad idea?
It's not just 'not terrible'. If there really are 125k subscribers, that's pretty darn GOOD.

Those numbers indicate total sales, not just subscribers. Lower sales might mean a drop in subscribers, but it also might mean just a drop in new copies of the game sold, while the subscribers remain perfectly stable (which wouldn't be that bad), or it might mean a smaller drop in both. We just don't know.

Something that people all seem to forget is that Paragon Studios doesn't just exist to support CoH the game. It exist to support CoH the franchise. I would be very surprised if there weren't at least well formed plans for furture products at this time, if they aren't already developing them/it. They way they have been building out the studio over the past years certainly seems an indication in that direction. Keeping CoH alive and releasing new content for it keeps the franchise alive and into the spotlight. Closing the game down would be a pretty horrible idea from that poin of view unless the game is bleeding money from every orifice. But considering all the new hires and obvious investment of time and resources into the game I don't consider that very likely. Even if CoH is operating at a reasonable loss, it can be considered as an investment into the franchise.


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Originally Posted by Daemodand View Post
So 67,000 accounts? Of course, you'd have to adjust for pay services and boosters, but that sounds about right. Apparently we see servers in the yellow and red due to the downscaling of hardware (with another round of downscaling having just been tested).

It's sad to see such a solid game find an all-new low in earnings with every quarter. But the answer is before us as had been mentioned: F2P. Problem is, NCSoft simply does not understand or like F2P.

Going Rogue and the end game have both failed to prop the game up. GR's problem was obvious: 20 levels wasn't enough content. People did the 20 levels and left. It didn't help that those are some of the most annoying 20 levels to get through (both mechanically and thematically) in the game. The end game is one of the most-cited reasons on various MMO fora for people leaving the game. Those people feel the Incarnate system has turned the game into one they no longer recognize. I can see their point, even if I don't necessarily agree.

AE was another misstep for the game as well. Mass interest turned into mass exodus. I don't see future MMOs including player-content features as the concept has been pretty well shown to not work.

PvP 2.0 certainly didn't help, either.

But as I said, the answer is before us: F2P. But will NCSoft's corporate culture allow it?

We already have an example that F2P is NOT the way to go. Several people have been pointing to another MMO that recently went F2P this year and have been claiming that said game is doing better than ever and we should follow it's example. However the parent company of said MMO is divesting themselves of said game and the company that created it because said game has lost $17.9 million during the last fiscal year and has already lost another $7.5 million since it went F2P this year.

Those numbers don't lie. Going F2P is disasterous.


 

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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project View Post
Going F2P is disasterous.
These types of blanket statements on the Interwebs always make me chuckle.

No, it's not.

Done wrong, like any business move, it is.

Done right, it works.

Will it work for City? That is the big question that NO ONE can answer ahead of actually doing it.


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I seem to remember another Supers themed game that was boasting a 1,000% increase in sales, only to recently read that the company is in the process of being sold off due to lack of... well, enough profit.


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Originally Posted by MajorPrankster View Post
These types of blanket statements on the Interwebs always make me chuckle.
So it's okay for the doomies to make blanket statements but not anyone else. Gotcha.


 

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Originally Posted by bAss_ackwards View Post
I seem to remember another Supers themed game that was boasting a 1,000% increase in sales, only to recently read that the company is in the process of being sold off due to lack of... well, enough profit.
You call a $25 million dollar loss a lack of enough profit? By their own admission the only way they could show any profit this fiscal year was by dumping said game and development company.

Selling it off the parent company goes from a net loss of $5.8 million to a profit of $708,000.


 

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This thread was an interesting read. Thanks everyone!


 

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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project View Post
Several people have been pointing to another MMO that recently went F2P this year and have been claiming that said game is doing better than ever and we should follow it's example. However the parent company of said MMO is divesting themselves of said game and the company that created it because said game has lost $17.9 million during the last fiscal year and has already lost another $7.5 million since it went F2P this year.

Those numbers don't lie. Going F2P is disasterous.
Out of curiosity, though, you seem to think F2P is a bad way to go (trust me, I have my reservations about it too.) But to play a sort of Devil's Advocate here, don't you think any other MMO looking to go F2P would like at the other game that tried it and would learn from their mistakes and player reactions and handle going F2P differently?

Is F2P inherently bad or just a business model that needs time to be understood/developed?


 

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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project View Post
Those numbers don't lie. Going F2P is disasterous.
Disastrous if you happen to have a specific company involved in your production channel perhaps. But that I imagine is because that company wants to be a 500 lb gorilla and anything less than that is a failure. Wouldn't be the first time that company burned bridges with that business model either.


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Originally Posted by Neuronia View Post
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No one's mentioned the new job listings at Paragon Studio's website. If we were in danger of maintenance mode or shut down DOOOM... I doubt they would be hiring new people.