CoX Quarter Earnings - Q1 2011


0zymandous

 

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I still think that an established MMO could make the transition to a very successful F2P business model - but the largest hurdle will be the existing playerbase and their attitude towards the change.

Provided the established MMO were to make the business model change, build it around the tastes and desires of their existing playerbase, without gating access to content to the free players but still make a subscription based account desirable to the existing and new playerbase, it could be a very brilliant, savvy move - especially if this is the business model of the future.

But, again, as previously stated, one of the larger hurdles would be the attitude of the existing playerbase and their perceptions of the business model. Other MMO's that have made this change did so early in their "life," and perhaps it was easier for the playerbase to adjust.

That being said, if we are speaking of City of Heroes and its life span - I think it is doing quite well for seven years. However is it netting more new accounts on a subscription based plan? Would F2P be disastrous for City of Heroes or would it open up the game to more people and in turn be more profitable with some system of microtransactions that don't "gate" content but enhance the gameplay... if that makes any sense?

/end ramble


 

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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
I would laugh in the face of anyone claiming to be an expert on the free to play model, because while its fairly well understood how it works for microgames like Farmville, the precise way it works or doesn't work in class A MMOs is about as well understood as quantum chromodynamics is by Elmo.
It's good that you restricted this to Elmo, as my brother's doctoral thesis was on this subject.


Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project

 

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Originally Posted by VoodooGirl View Post
We have to speak in hypothetical terms of "other games."
Hypothetically speaking, F2P could sometimes succeed and sometimes fail, if hypothetically speaking there existed more than one MMO on Earth, if there existed a planet called Earth. As we currently have 100% of all the MMO subscribers in the known universe, its difficult to project how F2P could affect our net playerbase size. However, I have seen calculations that suggest in certain Calabi-Yau contortions there exist vibrational manifolds in which the laws of physics would permit multiple MMOs existing simultaneously. In such manifolds I could conjecture the existence of an MMO which launched with a subscription model and later converted to a tiered model of VIP subscribers and ala carte subscriptionless players. When I extrapolate the binding energy of this manifold, solving for the rest mass of the electron involves a normalization factor whereby the developers of this game focus most of their attention on licensed fantasy role playing genres.


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In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
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Originally Posted by Ironblade View Post
It's good that you restricted this to Elmo, as my brother's doctoral thesis was on this subject.
That's fascinating. What specifically about Elmo did your brother's thesis focus on?


[Guide to Defense] [Scrapper Secondaries Comparison] [Archetype Popularity Analysis]

In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
(Please support the best webcomic about a cosmic universal realignment by impaired angelic interference resulting in identity crisis angst. Or I release the pigmy water thieves.)

 

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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
Hypothetically speaking, F2P could sometimes succeed and sometimes fail, if hypothetically speaking there existed more than one MMO on Earth, if there existed a planet called Earth. As we currently have 100% of all the MMO subscribers in the known universe, its difficult to project how F2P could affect our net playerbase size. However, I have seen calculations that suggest in certain Calabi-Yau contortions there exist vibrational manifolds in which the laws of physics would permit multiple MMOs existing simultaneously. In such manifolds I could conjecture the existence of an MMO which launched with a subscription model and later converted to a tiered model of VIP subscribers and ala carte subscriptionless players. When I extrapolate the binding energy of this manifold, solving for the rest mass of the electron involves a normalization factor whereby the developers of this game focus most of their attention on licensed fantasy role playing genres.
Sometimes I think you're Stephen Hawking.


 

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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
Hypothetically speaking, F2P could sometimes succeed and sometimes fail, if hypothetically speaking there existed more than one MMO on Earth, if there existed a planet called Earth. As we currently have 100% of all the MMO subscribers in the known universe, its difficult to project how F2P could affect our net playerbase size. However, I have seen calculations that suggest in certain Calabi-Yau contortions there exist vibrational manifolds in which the laws of physics would permit multiple MMOs existing simultaneously. In such manifolds I could conjecture the existence of an MMO which launched with a subscription model and later converted to a tiered model of VIP subscribers and ala carte subscriptionless players. When I extrapolate the binding energy of this manifold, solving for the rest mass of the electron involves a normalization factor whereby the developers of this game focus most of their attention on licensed fantasy role playing genres.
LOL, more than one MMO on Earth. Next you'll be talking about some sort of farcical trans-continental flying machine.


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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze View Post
Nice build

 

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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project View Post
Apparently you didn't see the winking emote I used in my post to let people reading it know it wasn't a serious statement. So sad that your first reaction is assume the worst and get defensive.
I took the winky completely wrong it would seem...

I am now sad I was sad...


"The side that is unhappy is not the side that the game was intended to make happy, or promised to make happy, or focused on making happy. The side that is unhappy is the side that is unhappy. That's all." - Arcanaville
"Surprised your guys' arteries haven't clogged with all that hatred yet." - Xzero45

 

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Originally Posted by VoodooGirl View Post
We have to speak in hypothetical terms of "other games."
And industry standards


 

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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
That's fascinating. What specifically about Elmo did your brother's thesis focus on?
Whether the reaction of the 'Tickle Me' version was endearing or just creepy.


Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project

 

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Originally Posted by MajorPrankster View Post
I took the winky completely wrong it would seem...

I am now sad I was sad...
No problem. We be cool.


 

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Originally Posted by VoodooGirl View Post
So, for you, an F2P business model that has subscription levels (albeit all ungated in terms of access/content), but also has "microtransactions" that give additional benefits/bonuses/items of things that weren't previously included/available in the game (prior to F2P) would be something you feel the existing playerbase could get behind?
No.


 

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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project View Post
No problem. We be cool.
Fonzy cool?


"The side that is unhappy is not the side that the game was intended to make happy, or promised to make happy, or focused on making happy. The side that is unhappy is the side that is unhappy. That's all." - Arcanaville
"Surprised your guys' arteries haven't clogged with all that hatred yet." - Xzero45

 

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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project View Post
No.
That what would be an F2P model that would work for you?


 

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Originally Posted by VoodooGirl View Post
That what would be an F2P model that would work for you?
Sorry can't say Freitag's watching.


 

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Originally Posted by VoodooGirl View Post
But, again, as previously stated, one of the larger hurdles would be the attitude of the existing playerbase and their perceptions of the business model. Other MMO's that have made this change did so early in their "life," and perhaps it was easier for the playerbase to adjust.
Actually, the tabletop-inspired product was released in early 2006, and went to their hybrid F2P model in late 2009. Three years is a respectable gap before changing business models. The other game by their creator was launched in early 2007 and went F2P in late 2010, so another 3 year gap.

A 7 year old game naturally has a more entrenched playerbase, but I think the effects would definitely be more relevant than the 3 year old game against a 1.5 year old game.


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Originally Posted by VoodooGirl View Post
That being said, if we are speaking of City of Heroes and its life span - I think it is doing quite well for seven years. However is it netting more new accounts on a subscription based plan? Would F2P be disastrous for City of Heroes or would it open up the game to more people and in turn be more profitable with some system of microtransactions that don't "gate" content but enhance the gameplay... if that makes any sense?
Personally, I'm of the opinion that if City were to lower the base monthly price slightly and increase their microtransaction offerings a bit, they'd see a lot more customers and more overall income.

If they were able to go a step further and subdivide some of the content/zone access to 'mission packs', and shift to a point system for grabbing mission packs, booster packs (or subsets thereof), I think it has the potential to expand their customer greatly even with the increased costs of having to maintain additional server capacity for the moochers.

But that's just from my perspective, having played three games that went from subscription to F2P of some flavor.


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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
Softcapping an Invuln is fantastic. Softcapping a Willpower is amazing. Softcapping SR is kissing your sister.

 

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Originally Posted by Infernus_Hades View Post
Look at costs:

DS3 - about $500 a month give or take each line
Not sure where you're getting your pricing...



Clicking on the linked image above will take you off the City of Heroes site. However, the guides will be linked back here.

 

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Originally Posted by Void_Huntress View Post
If they were able to go a step further and subdivide some of the content/zone access to 'mission packs', and shift to a point system for grabbing mission packs, booster packs (or subsets thereof), I think it has the potential to expand their customer greatly even with the increased costs of having to maintain additional server capacity for the moochers.
But isn't the same as "gating" content the some players are against with the F2P model?


 

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Originally Posted by Void_Huntress View Post
I think it has the potential to expand their customer greatly even with the increased costs of having to maintain additional server capacity for the moochers. {emphasis added}
That word is telling, not to mention entirely typical, of the division that sets in with many so-called F2P systems.

It's been my own experience in some games, and the experience of friends in others, that creating a culture of haves and have-nots (or pays and don't-pays) is bad for the community overall. Paying players grow quick to resent requests from F2Pers, which seem like unentitled demands. On the other hand, F2Pers, when not in a state of grievance, often slip into petty trolling and griefing - and that's nothing compared to the increased incidence of gold-farming and RMT spamming, counterintuitive as that may seem in an F2P system.

The real issue is why NCSoft's overall quarterly earnings demand changes in any of their games' payment structures. Compared to some *hem hem* the company is doing quite well as it is.


 

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Originally Posted by VoodooGirl View Post
Again, it depends on the F2P structure.

If the players of an established MMO reaallly hate the F2P structure of another MMO - do you think that established MMO switching to a F2P business model would be smart to copy it - or - try something different?

I don't believe an MMO moving to a F2P business model would be wise to take the "gated approach" - i.e. have to pay to advance - but instead allow the entire game to be accessible on a free account level and the microtransactions involved would have to be something that enhances the gameplay experience instead of "completing" it.
The gated approach works, and is often the only way to differentiate between those who pay a sub to get access to everything and those who use micro-transactions to gain access.

How do you make your long time players happy? By NOT granting free players access to everything and having them gain access the same way the monthly sub paying customers do, i.e. open the wallet.

Of course this does nothing for those who measure their self-worth and epeen size based on the pixel-stuff they have "earned" in said game, and somehow think they are diminished because someone can pay more cash for what they paid for in time.

Some have more time to earn and some have more cash. As long as someone doesn't impact your game play directly it doesn't matter what someone else has.


 

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Originally Posted by Neuronia View Post
Not to get too off topic, but you have to wonder if ingame "authorities" have noticed THE GIANT FLIPPIN' ROBOTS ACCOMPANIED BY NOTABLE PRAETORIANS INVADING PARAGON!!!! One thing I've always disliked about these things is cities look the same afterwards...would be nice seeing a broken Atlas Park for a few weeks.
But the new heroes who have never heard of the Praetorians would see a damaged city and go WTF? Praetorians? What?

Think of the storyline!


BrandX Future Staff Fighter
The BrandX Collection

 

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Originally Posted by Freitag View Post
I would like to remind everyone once again of Rule 8 of the City of Heroes forums, which states:
"This is a stupid rule, which everyone should obey except when obeying it results in patently stupid conversation, in which case it should be skirted and flirted with, but no touching, because Big Brother is watching."

No, seriously, it's a ******* stupid rule. Are there any rules that get violated as much as this one? I'm betting not, and there's a damn good reason for that.


 

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Originally Posted by 0zymandous View Post
The gated approach works, and is often the only way to differentiate between those who pay a sub to get access to everything and those who use micro-transactions to gain access.
I think what would need to be established is what would be considered "gated" content. Certain levels? Powersets? I don't think that would be wise. Side-switching, PvP, Bases/Base Editing - perhaps that could all be considered "gated" content that if free players wanted they could microtransact (MTS) for, but is otherwise free to subscribing accounts.

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Originally Posted by 0zymandous View Post
How do you make your long time players happy? By NOT granting free players access to everything and having them gain access the same way the monthly sub paying customers do, i.e. open the wallet.
But when you switch to F2P the focus shouldn't be solely on the "subscribers" - all those "free" accounts are potential future subscriptions but are also customers who will continually make repeated microtransactions. When a game is switching to F2P it's not just about the longterm subscribing players - you also have to make the new "free" generation happy - so much so that they will enjoy the game so much that they'll want to upgrade to a subscription to get whatever extra perks come with it.

To say a free account would have to MTS levels 20 - 30 on each toon, or access to Dark Astoria, or whatever other gated content - would they want to upgrade to a subscription because they want to or would they do it out of annoyance of having to MTS each time? Is the goal to annoy the players, or give them a game they can enjoy on any level of subscription?

To reiterate, an established MMO switching to F2P shouldn't have a free subscription level that punishes the players for not having a paying subscription based account, but offers them as much as near to the complete game as if they had been a - let's call it - "legacy" subscriber experience.

To quote:

“Also, recall that for any MTS [F2P] game to be successful, you need a vibrant community that is only taking advantage of the free services” -- David Chang

/end rant

I am currently dealing with the flu. Any typos, grammatical errors, crazy ideas/rants - they were all intended. I don't make mistakes. Ever.


 

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Originally Posted by TrueGentleman View Post
The real issue is why NCSoft's overall quarterly earnings demand changes in any of their games' payment structures. Compared to some *hem hem* the company is doing quite well as it is.
I've seen F2P succeed in two situations:
1.) Pay2win Asian grindfests
2.) Big name IPs that didn't do so well coming out of the gate and needed a shot in the arm

Neither of which fits CoH. F2P evangelists, however, demand their free stuff and so off we go.


Blood Widow Ricki * Tide Shifter * T-34 * Opposite Reaction * Shaolin Midnight * ChernobylCheerleader

 

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Originally Posted by VoodooGirl View Post
But when you switch to F2P the focus shouldn't be solely on the "subscribers" - all those "free" accounts are potential future subscriptions but are also customers who will continually make repeated microtransactions. When a game is switching to F2P it's not just about the longterm subscribing players - you also have to make the new "free" generation happy - so much so that they will enjoy the game so much that they'll want to upgrade to a subscription to get whatever extra perks come with it.
What you're missing is that its not a one-way street. You'll also have subscribers who'll see that its not all bad on the gated side and drop their subs to play for free. Even if you strike a balance between the two, you're just treading water. And if your game is still profitable, what sense does it make to risk that profitability?


Blood Widow Ricki * Tide Shifter * T-34 * Opposite Reaction * Shaolin Midnight * ChernobylCheerleader