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TR and Auto Assault were never profitable from the get go, and F2P still had stigma around when AA was closed down.|
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
Yeah tell that to Dungeon Runners, Tabula Rasa, Exteel, and Auto Assault. Of the 8 online games we can play from NCSoft they shut 4 of them down when they stopped being profitable. Not very good odds for CoH going F2P.
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TR i believe they wanted shot of one way or another... the financials were the writing on the wall though just after 6 months of being live.
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You can't become an incarnate, regardless of your subscription status, unless you paid for Going Rogue. Does that count?
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Originally Posted by End Sinister
"Free to play" is a tricky thing isn't it? I'm not exactly opposed to it, but Lord Of The Rings Online aside, many M.M.O.'s tanked when they went free to play. Introducing such a system in City Of Heroes would be a difficult task by the devs. and possibly an even harder pill to swallow by the player base.
Gating content is unwise because it can very easily lead into, "I have a monthly subscription, but I can't become an incarnate unless I pay "x" amount." At the first sight of gating content to subscribed players I would leave immediately and I am sure that I am not the only one who feels this way. |
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Originally Posted by PleaseRecycle
it has gone from unconscionable to downright appalling that we have no way of measuring our characters' wetness.
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Originally Posted by Brillig
It's hard to beat the entertainment value of Whackjob Wednesdays.
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The current state of the server's load indicators at US peak have been pretty much the same as the day i18 went live and almost everyday for the last 7 months...shard farming through TFs started 3 months later.|
Originally Posted by Samuel_Tow
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I'm not saying that is or is not the cause of the higher server loads, but I do know people have been doing a LOT more ITFs lately, and a lot more Khaans as of this last week. |
Before i18 i used to see servers go yellow with unhidden players about 1400 +/- 150 and going red with about 2800 +/- 200. After i18 i see them go yellow around 200 +/- 30 with red around 1000 +/- 75.
It's more likely something other than player activity has changed to affect the load indicators.
F2P, and exit, stage left. I don't mind paying the subscription. I don't mind paying for packs. Keep making good packs, and I'll keep buying them. Game has a lot of history, and they have learned alot. Who knows, shutting down COH 1, could lead to COH 2. Anyways, not up for paying for things on the fly, and so on.
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And that's my point. NCSoft has a track record of shutting games down when they cease being profitable rather than trying to extend the games lifespan by changing the business model.|
Originally Posted by Gangrel_EU
TR and Auto Assault were never profitable from the get go, and F2P still had stigma around when AA was closed down.
TR i believe they wanted shot of one way or another... the financials were the writing on the wall though just after 6 months of being live. |
Personally I'd rather see them follow the Guild Wars plan and develop a CoH2 instead of going F2P.
QR:
*offtopic*
TR was never profitable and more than likely would have never been profitable even if it was F2P.
It would have definately been a 1st for Auto Assault to go F2P and would have beaten a couple of other Sub only mmo's to the punch of changing their subscriptions. (From what I can remember a friend of mine saying, there were some nice changes just coming, but plugged was pulled on very short notice).
TR was running on a skeleton crew during the last few months, and the change over from Sub to F2P is actually pretty hard (possible, but it does also take money). Would it have worked? Who knows, but NCsoft wanted it gone at that point and away it went.
((That reminds me, need to stalk Kerensky and a couple of others that I know and catch up with them))
*edit*
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Agreed, and would be interesting to see actually. I think it might just work as a "box purchase only" game, but design considerations need to be considered as well.
| Personally I'd rather see them follow the Guild Wars plan and develop a CoH2 instead of going F2P |
It's not all DOOOOM and gloom. Adjusted by the exchange rate CoH is only down 15% year to year. In KWN we are down 17.5%.
If you look at the rest of NCSoft's bread and better MMOs, they are all down by a lot more than us Y2Y. Their two old faithfuls are down 16.1% and 18.6% while their latest big hit is down 27.8% as the newness wore off. So if anything we aren't standing out like a nail looking to be hammered.
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Paying for an expansion while remaining at a monthly fee is much different from a "pay to power-up" premise that could potentially out cost buying an expansion and a monthly fee of $15. Many "free" M.M.O.'s out there created a system where you can't really progress past a certain point unless you shell out money. The money spent in the end could be well over what one would pay for a year's worth of City Of Heroes and its expansion.|
Originally Posted by Siolfir
You can't become an incarnate, regardless of your subscription status, unless you paid for Going Rogue. Does that count?
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Someone suggested $5 a well calling. Okay, so there are 12 tiers, correct? So we're already at $60 for end game content, not to mention expirable S.O.'s, a potential buy-in to purples, and many, many other gimmicks that game developers employ to ensure that their players are well over paying for a game they are told that they do not have to pay for (when in reality, anything worth playing the game for has been locked out of the free version of the game). Ever read the expose of the Chinese game ZT Online? Get back to me once you have because that is a potential situation this game could get itself into if it were to go to a superficial free to play model.
Now think of the type of player that a free to play game system would attract. I've played several "free to play" M.M.O.'s myself and I can tell you that all I ever came across were griefers, gold sellers, and bots. Free to play would destroy the community City Of Heroes has today as this game is known to be a haven from said issues with other M.M.O.'s.
[Post removed, splitting to another thread]
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This is what 3700 heroes in a single zone looks like.
Thanks to @EnsonsDeath for the GVE code that made me VIP again!
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Most of those games were never profitable. CoH has been profitable and is still profitable. That and the popularity of F2P at the time of the other games closings are what you are missing.
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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
And that's my point. NCSoft has a track record of shutting games down when they cease being profitable-
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To be honest I wouldn't care if it were "box purchase only" or a "monthly fee" like we currently have. I'd rather see them devote resources to an entirely new game engine than convert this engine over to F2P.|
Originally Posted by Gangrel_EU
Agreed, and would be interesting to see actually. I think it might just work as a "box purchase only" game, but design considerations need to be considered as well.
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Doing a new game engine would let them do things like design a workable PvP from scratch, Super Group Bases and personal secret lairs, design a new costume creator that has a lot more flexibility, redesign an easier to use respec system, more in depth power customization, etc.
No. to F2P. 
end of discussion 
I want to throw in a big NO to F2P that gives away every zone for free. I don't mind opening the game to freeloaders, but make them pay some money before they can get into Talos or IP.
That was JackHeroMMO2's biggest mistake, the freeloading jerks are able to get into every zone without spending a penny.
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That's Q1-Q4 quarterly sales. Looks like ~no loss of subscribers. Going Rogue added a lot of revenue to Q3, and probably shifted a small amount of revenue from Q4 to Q3 because it added a month. (People on longer subscriptions would have renewed a month later, meaning Q304 effectively "borrowed" some subscription revenue from later quarters; that effective will technically last for the entire next year; someone who was annual and set to renew in March won't renew until April, for example.)|
3,348 3,491 5,709 3,239 |
So for Q4, 3,329 mm S Korean Won = $2,876,554 in USD, or about $958k/month. Subscription plans can range anywhere from $10.28/month (12+2, which I think I've used the last 2 years on both accounts) to $14.99 for monthly. That's anywhere from 64k - 93k subs, discounting the effects of the add-on packs.
I'd bet ~70-80k subs, and I'd bet that people who are on discounted subs (3/6/12/12+2) are more likely to buy add-on packs. I would have bet the "combo" packs that had things like costume change emotes + powers + costume options + emotes all bundled were better sellers than something that was purely cosmetic, although the Origins pack was (imo) pretty badass for a cosmetic pack.
That's not bad for a 7-year-old game; but then again, the metric is really as much about the direction of the arrow as the sub numbers. When CoH launched, EVE had <50k subscribers; now it has >300k. I think the interesting thing is: will CoH be able to build on it's subscriber base? I never actually unsubbed, but I largely stopped playing, but the awesome stuff from the past few issues (GR stuff, but also things like tintable powers and Incarnate fun) has had me wanting to get back into the game (which I finally did). I had another friend (who actually had unsubbed) who returned around Architect time. Hopefully the quality wins people over/back.
Good observations, Plasma. I'm on the yearly sub here.
Playstation 3 - XBox 360 - Wii - PSP
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Samuel_Tow: Your avatar is... I think I like it
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Given that we don't have a scaling level progression, it'd be difficult |
Originally Posted by bAss_ackwards
/Agree
1 every year! ... okay, well how about 1 every 2 years then? |
. And the cries would be harsh if they split the Incarnate System into different expansion parcels. Quote:
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Originally Posted by The_Coming_Storm
Nah, he is just looking for teams the wrong way if he is talking about VIRTUE redside.
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Let's Dance!
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+1. |
Originally Posted by Father Xmas
It's not all DOOOOM and gloom. Adjusted by the exchange rate CoH is only down 15% year to year. In KWN we are down 17.5%.
If you look at the rest of NCSoft's bread and better MMOs, they are all down by a lot more than us Y2Y. Their two old faithfuls are down 16.1% and 18.6% while their latest big hit is down 27.8% as the newness wore off. So if anything we aren't standing out like a nail looking to be hammered. |
CoX is holding steady, even in the face of newer, more hyped hero games coming on the market.
Even if this game goes F2P I don't mind as long as I've got an option to keep a subscription going as it holds now (free issues etc. with the occasional pay expansion).
Whatever can get people in the door and keep them in here means that the long term growth of the game is assured, I'm pretty OK with.
The only thing I'm going to ask for is that mitten hands go away very soon. It's the dead giveaway that this game is based on an ancient engine.
I think you guys have Free2Play really wrong. They wouldn't sell enhancements or inspirations... Influence is so abundant there wouldn't be any profit.
They would probably do a two-prong attack. Allow people to continue paying a monthly fee and play the game like it it now; still getting extra money from things like Boosters. The "Free" version would make you pay to unlock different power choices. So when you pick Tanker, instead of 8 Primary / 11 Secondary, you'd have 3 Primary / 3 Secondary. Once you pay to unlock something, it stays unlocked. Same thing with the "Epic" powers at 41+. I would also expect that you would have to pay to unlock special missions like capes, auras, ect.
We're a long way from Free2Play though. Most MMOs are profitable at or above 40k subs, which I feel fairly sure we're at or above. As long as the content keeps flowing, I'm sure the subs will be there.
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I'm not confident that people with long-term sub plans comprise a majority of sales. They had a 6mo/12mo promo in november. If the bulk of the subscribers took that offer i would think it would've shown a more noticeable uptick between 2Q and 4Q.|
Originally Posted by Plasma
...People on longer subscriptions would have renewed a month later, meaning Q304 effectively "borrowed" some subscription revenue from later quarters; that effective will technically last for the entire next year; someone who was annual and set to renew in March won't renew until April, for example...
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Code:
YoY
2009 2010
1Q 6,837 3,348
2Q 6,673 3,491
3Q 5,471 5,709
4Q 3,928 3,239
2009 1 USD = won USD
1Q 1415.61656 4,829,698
2Q 1288.31418 5,179,637
3Q 1243.32370 4,400,302
4Q 1172.12370 3,351,182
2010
1Q 1149.27733 2,913,135
2Q 1167.69275 2,989,656
3Q 1187.31793 4,808,316
4Q 1135.05837 2,853,598
* Exchange rates are average ask price for the quarter.
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Accounting rules require them to break up yearly subscriptions quarter-by-quarter. They "realise" 1/4th of the income each quarter, rather than all in the single quarter the subscription renews.
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Originally Posted by Pebblebrook
I'm not confident that people with long-term sub plans comprise a majority of sales. They had a 6mo/12mo promo in november. If the bulk of the subscribers took that offer i would think it would've shown a more noticeable uptick from 2Q and 4Q.
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I wouldn't mind a F2P option if its put in like a lifelong trial account with the option to upgrade. I just wouldn't want to see the entire game go F2P.
Apparently, I play "City of Shakespeare"
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i think that would be how it would happen, maybe i'm missing something, but all the games that transitioned to f2p that i remember have gone with a dual tiered option at least. i would expect if coh went f2p it would be the blended model, we aren't some cookie cutter Korean freemo, for me the sub would stay so i'd see nothing different.
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Another decline like from Q407 to Q410 and there will be no one playing the game. Therefore an estimated maximum lifespan of 10 years I think is realistic. 3 to 4 years unless something is pulled out of the hat.
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Originally Posted by Zombie Man
Oh, no! Looks like we only have about 7 years left!!
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He will honor his words; he will definitely carry out his actions. What he promises he will fulfill. He does not care about his bodily self, putting his life and death aside to come forward for another's troubled besiegement. He does not boast about his ability, or shamelessly extol his own virtues. - Sima Qian.
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If anyone has a good site for this stuff (I failed at google on this one) I will overlay a second data line for estimated USD.
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Originally Posted by Pebblebrook
I'm not confident that people with long-term sub plans comprise a majority of sales. They had a 6mo/12mo promo in november. If the bulk of the subscribers took that offer i would think it would've shown a more noticeable uptick between 2Q and 4Q.
Code:
YoY
2009 2010
1Q 6,837 3,348
2Q 6,673 3,491
3Q 5,471 5,709
4Q 3,928 3,239
2009 1 USD = won USD
1Q 1415.61656 4,829,698
2Q 1288.31418 5,179,637
3Q 1243.32370 4,400,302
4Q 1172.12370 3,351,182
2010
1Q 1149.27733 2,913,135
2Q 1167.69275 2,989,656
3Q 1187.31793 4,808,316
4Q 1135.05837 2,853,598
* Exchange rates are average ask price for the quarter.
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Start small and then add more to F2P if that is the way the game has to go. Giving free access to the costume creator isn't going to hurt the game, and compared to the other two herommos ours is the best.
Considering how frequently players like to fiddle with their costumes charging a fee each time someone wants to use the costume creator would be far more profitable.