2010 4Q earnings

So many snarky things to reply here, I think leaving it blank is the only way to do it justice. ;]

Unemployment started it's downward spiral in April 08 -- a year before. But I grant you that the economy was also a large contributing factor.

Source

Until someone explains why their prediction of the game shutting down in two years is correct, while every other person who has made that prediction has been wrong, I don't find the prediction to be particularly interesting. Back in '08 people were predicting that within a year we'd be below 50k subs and non-viable. People were saying if the trend in '09 continued we had two years at best, one at worst. Now the accounting wizards are saying we have until 2013. Eventually someone is going to be right, but I don't see why they should get credit for that prediction when its made consistently, and entirely randomly.

The problem with these predictions is that they cost nothing to make. When someone comes back and admits they were completely wrong and as a result have revisited their understanding of MMOs as a result to attempt to prevent such an incorrect line of thinking from happening again, I'll be impressed. Predicting the demise of the game is not interesting. It just means its a day that ends in Y.

and a 2011 Feb join date with only a 9 post count as I type this. Yep, sombody's credibility is on the line.

South Korea follows international GAAP, which requires, I believe, such income to be amortized.

As to the curve, given the release of Going Rogue and the requirement to account for the free month, the most logical explanation for the sales numbers is that the majority of GR sales were to existing customers, and not to new ones. New customers were added at only approximately the normal rate for the game. Meanwhile, the game retained customers at approximately the same rate as before, with only small changes in total subscription base over the year.

When the Q3 numbers came out, I mentioned that this was my guess, but I needed Q4 to refine that guess. Q4 seems to confirm that guess. The drop in 2009 didn't continue in 2010 like some people predicted, but it wasn't reversed by GR either. We seem to have very roughly stabilized at a new subscriber base level in 2010.

Optimistically, you could say that at least the 2009 trend wasn't a continuing trend, which would have been problematic. But contrawise, I think its important to start to consider that the devs need to find a strategy that eventually gains net subscribers. At best, GR didn't cost us any. And I have to admit that while adding a new starting game like Praetoria is a strategy that can theoretically gain customers, end game is mostly a strategy aimed at retaining customers.

You have to wonder if the problem with Praetoria is that only experienced players can tend to survive there. That's a very problematic logical contradiction.

it's certainly a tougher environment than Paragon City or even the Rogue Isles (which were a fair step up in difficulty when CoH was released).

As someone who prefers playing on autopilot in a sort of videogame-assisted meditative state I don't find Praetoria a congenial environment. Looks nice, it's cool to have missions I haven't played to death and back, but when I log in I find myself gravitating to my usual stomping grounds, not the clean vistas of Emperor Cole's utopia.

I played Lotro before it went F2P.

I'll admit it's the most well done F2P method (actually allowing you to earn these microtransaction points in game). I still hate F2P as it adds tons of microtransaction stuff that gives bonuses (and it did for LOTRO. Alot.)

Though LOTRO was ruined by the Mines of Warcraft copying expansion.

Oh, I know it started then, but it really didn't seem to "sink in" in terms of people losing jobs and homes becoming something of a mainstream experience for a while after Wall Street started taking hits. Toss in people with quarterly and annual subs, and the subscription valley would probably lag the unemployment peak by a good six months at least.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, in other words. I agree.

I want to take every chance I get to agree with the Nether Goat. I appreciate Praetoria for its storytelling, innovation and visuals, but when given the choice, I still prefer to start in the old game. Praetorian difficulty just hurts too much and pisses me off more than I want a game to.

Originally Posted by Arcanaville Samuel_Tow is the only poster that makes me want to punch him in the head more often when I'm agreeing with him than when I'm disagreeing with him.

you know, if there is one reason i despise these threads, its because people with an axe to grind will make tenuously reasoned jabs at the developers decisions as the single reason why people left, rather than realizing that change are due to a significant combination of economic factors that they cannot possibly hope to fully collate into a simple cause and effect scenario. Simply put, if you were really able to make such concrete market analysis from looking at just one single factor, economics and business in general would be a hell of a lot easier, you are guessing like anyone else, and being quite petty in how you are guessing.

Well, I don't know if the chart accounts for currency fluctuations, but in Q308, the USD was equivalent to about 10,000 won (it was 11,000 for most of the year prior). In Q1 of 2009, the USD had dropped by nearly 25% to average 7500 won. It's been slowly climbing back (currently at 9,000). Once you adjust this chart by conversion rates that would have been in play each quarter, you see a much smaller dip in the time in question...

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Of course, another question comes in the form of when revenue is 'realized.' In my company, if a client pays for a full year up front, we get $x0000 up front, but we have to record this internally differently until the service is provided... so that sale would be $x0000/12 for the year. Preorders work much the same-- although the money is in our account, we can't "realize" it until the product ships.

So, how do all those annual subscription promotions get reported? Should we have expected spikes during the quarters of those promotions, or just steady realization over time? Is the revenue for preorders shown when the preorder is made, or only after GR launches.


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Finally, some have expressed concern at the size of the "spike" from Going Rogue compared to CoV. Revenue models for third-party sellers of MMO's have changed greatly since CoV. More and more, the "box" comes nearly at a "loss" to the publisher (once you figure in the "free" month) with the retailer taking more of the share in exchange for actually promoting the game and putting it on the shelves. The publisher is expected to make up more through the subscriptions and through direct sales. That may account for *some* of the lack of spike in that quarter...

...though I'd expect all the preorder sales, if "realized" there, would be direct-store purchases.

That's about as accurate as blaming the drop in Subs on when the devs increased the number of characters we have per server from 12 to 36. Since players could now fit more characters onto one account they let their other accounts lapse and the game is doomed because of it.

Many/Most of the others (barring the obvious ones) that are publicly held don't go to this granular level. I don't want to run against the forum rules, but last I heard, even SOE's total earnings was aggregated into its parent, so you couldn't see how well the whole company was doing, let alone individual games.

As always...well said Arcanaville!

It will end on the thirteenth hour of the thirteenth day of the thirteenth month....

What are you talking about, I am seeing a crapload of more activity now than ever before.

Ha! That idiot forgot the letter 'T' at the end of Night.

And while CoX gets older I see a game that is getting more mature and feature rich, while others see doom. 19 free expansions and 2 paid expansions in 6.5 years. As long as there are over 50k subscribers, CoX will continue to turn a small but tidy profit each year.