City of Heroes: Live Forum Archive

2010 4Q earnings

Acemace

By Acemace,
Posted on: 2011-02-11 16:14 in CoH and CoV General Discussions

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by LISAR View Post
If anyone has a good site for this stuff (I failed at google on this one) I will overlay a second data line for estimated USD.
If you mean a site for the exchange rates, not sure which is the best. But i used this one. There are others like this one but didn't really use it.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by LISAR View Post
If anyone has a good site for this stuff (I failed at google on this one) I will overlay a second data line for estimated USD.
Historic conversion rates: http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

Even after the conversion to USD, you also have to take into account inflation. Convert everything to 2010 dollars.

Inflation calculator: http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

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Posted

CoX seems to be doing pretty well for a 7 year old game.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by New Dawn View Post
Another decline like from Q407 to Q410 and there will be no one playing the game. Therefore an estimated maximum lifespan of 10 years I think is realistic. 3 to 4 years unless something is pulled out of the hat.
That's why I gave the game two years myself. The game is obviously on the tail end of a slow decline. I think after nine to ten years this game will be shut down. It isn't Asheron's Call or Everquest and it certainly doesn't have large powerhouses like Microsoft or Sony Entertainment backing it. Yet the fan boys and girls of the game always deny that the game is on a decline. I'm only saying there's not much life in this game because there isn't. If the figures drop over the course of this year like they have in 2009 to 2010, there will no longer be a City Of Heroes. End of story.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by End Sinister View Post
Yet the fan boys and girls of the game always deny that the game is on a decline.
it can decline for quite a while and still be worth NC's while to keep around.

I've been seeing posts like yours since probably the middle of 2005.
I expect I'll be seeing them still in 2015.

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leandro View Post
Can you post the raw data? Google Docs spreadsheet link, maybe?
Ummm maybe...would I need to make an account for that.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nethergoat View Post
it can decline for quite a while and still be worth NC's while to keep around.

I've been seeing posts like yours since probably the middle of 2005.
I expect I'll be seeing them still in 2015.
Gee I remember reading posts like his as far back as 2004. The Doomies have been screaming "The End is Nigh!" from day one.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project View Post
Gee I remember reading posts like his as far back as 2004. The Doomies have been screaming "The End is Nigh!" from day one.
Before that I'm told.

People who played in the WoW stress test supposedly came back to CoH beta to say how this game was going to fail.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by LISAR View Post
Before that I'm told.

People who played in the WoW stress test supposedly came back to CoH beta to say how this game was going to fail.
That's pretty much what I meant from day one, otherwise I would have seaid since the day CoH launched.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by End Sinister View Post
The game is obviously on the tail end of a slow decline.
Quote:
Yet the fan boys and girls of the game always deny that the game is on a decline. I'm only saying there's not much life in this game because there isn't.
Whenever I see someone stating certainties about possible future events, I wonder what their agenda is. When they then preemptively dismiss anyone who disagrees with them as fanboys, their comments become even more suspect.

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Posted

It's almost like they don't believe that others know all things come to an end eventually. *lights corn cob pipe*

 

Posted

Lineage 1 is still around...CoX will be around for another decade for sure. NCSOFT only pulls the plug on projects that start off poorly, not the ones with longevity. CoX is like a seasoned olympic runner.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by End Sinister View Post
...I'm only saying there's not much life in this game because there isn't. If the figures drop over the course of this year like they have in 2009 to 2010, there will no longer be a City Of Heroes...
The biggest hurdle is the initial development cost, if a game doesn't look like it'll be able to pay off that debt that's when they decide whether they cut their losses or not. CoX i'm sure has long paid off that debt, so the real question is whether the cost of maintaining the game which includes further content development is still less than what it earns.

NCSoft doesn't itemize their cost by game so we don't know the profitability point of CoX to determine how much more it can drop before it goes into the red. But maintenance cost can be controlled by cutting resources, reducing content development etc. So unless revenue shoots back up, it can still linger on by having less and less.

Then again, they might be able to pull off an EVE-like turnaround during that time. That game is 1 year older than CoX i think, so that scenario has precedent though not sure how probable it applies in this game.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironblade View Post
Whenever I see someone stating certainties about possible future events, I wonder what their agenda is. When they then preemptively dismiss anyone who disagrees with them as fanboys, their comments become even more suspect.
I think his perception is colored by bitterness over what happened with the previous account he was using.

Quote:
Originally Posted by End Sinister View Post
(I'm formerly InvisoBill due to account problems. Apparently you can't use your sister's account after three years of playing when they come to find out...)

All that time and effort gone, it's understandable that he'd be upset. I only hope he isn't account hopping to get around a ban.

 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pebblebrook View Post
Then again, they might be able to pull off an EVE-like turnaround during that time. That game is 1 year older than CoX i think, so that scenario has precedent though not sure how probable it applies in this game.
EVE is a weird case, because it's subscriber numbers are essentially constantly growing, though for the past year/year and a half they've stabilized around the 350k mark. Though that may increase once they release their walking-in-stations expansion. It also appeals to people in a way other MMOs don't, with its open-world, sanbbox nature.

About the only developmental idea CoX could appropriate from EVE that would actually manage to bring new subscribers in would probably be a major graphics overhaul. But then EVE started that almost 3 years ago and they're still doing it... And they don't have nearly as many textures and models and things they needed to overhaul compared to CoX.

 

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Originally Posted by Eiko-chan View Post
Accounting rules require them to break up yearly subscriptions quarter-by-quarter. They "realise" 1/4th of the income each quarter, rather than all in the single quarter the subscription renews.
Korean accounting rules or US accounting rules? Or are they working the same way?

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nethergoat View Post
it can decline for quite a while and still be worth NC's while to keep around.

I've been seeing posts like yours since probably the middle of 2005.
I expect I'll be seeing them still in 2015.
Just looking at their pretty pdf on the earnings release, it shows that CoX accounts for about 2-4% of overall revenue to NCSoft, which is pretty d000my.

However, if you take a look at NCSoft's North American marketshare, you can see that CoX probably accounts for 25-35% of their North American presence, which means that this game is still quite important for them.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by PumBumbler View Post
However, if you take a look at NCSoft's North American marketshare, you can see that CoX probably accounts for 25-35% of their North American presence, which means that this game is still quite important for them.
Agreed

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Posted

I think people will be taking a critical eye to the Lotro model after not too long. Also, it would be interesting to see what the community of Lotro players who pre-existed Lotro think about the model now and in the future.

I much prefer a paying model (however I would love something like SoE's station pass, even though I am not sure NCsoft's other offerings would hold any attention). If sub fees have to be supplemented by optional/cosmetic microtransactions and expansions, so be it!

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by LISAR View Post
Hmmm . . . why the drop after Q209? Mission Architect was released early April 2009 so I would expect an increase, not a decline. Oh! I remember, Positron had his hissy fit regarding AE exploits. They disciplined a number of players and instituted a forum blackout. I cancelled my second account over that for awhile, but eventually resubbed. I guess other people left and never came back.

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Posted

IIRC, that's also around the time that the economy was firmly going to hell in a handbasket, and unemployment increases really kicked in.

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