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Temp powers are in a separate category of drops. They have no effect on your receiving an IO recipe. You could potentially receive a temp power recipe and a purple.|
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
Random is random? Cool. Why do my drops often look like:
plasmatic taser jetpack plasmatic taser Gabriel's Hammer revolver plasmatic taser the baseball bat plasmatic taser jetpack revolver baseball bat plasmatic taser mark 3 or whatever... |
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| Or how is it that when I do get a purple, its one of the same three Fortunata Hypnosis's, or one of the same three Unbreakable Constraints? That does not seem very "random" to me, sorry. It seems awfully strange, as a matter of fact. Little too much pattern there for true random. |
I guess its a matter of perception of random.
When I was mentioning friends in the great purple hunt, that's one thing we were doing, testing different sets of circumstances, night after night we would stay up and crunch numbers, purps would drop here and there, some different, some the same. every time we thought we found some pattern or situation that might provoke a drop- something would happen that would blow that out of the water. Every time. These friends were number crunchers some by trade.
To me, that's pretty random. And these are ultra rares- keep that in mind. it makes a picky generator even MORE picky to the point of being downright HATEFUL.
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useless far from it I find the very useful and I use them all the time,they do have a bit more power than the old ones do.|
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
Random is random? Cool. Why do my drops often look like:
plasmatic taser jetpack plasmatic taser Gabriel's Hammer revolver plasmatic taser the baseball bat plasmatic taser jetpack revolver baseball bat plasmatic taser mark 3 or whatever... .....AGH! Stop with these freaking useless temp powers! Now no one sane expects purples to drop like this, but I question "random is random" to the last fibre of my being. Is it really random when I have had had ONE Ragnarok EVER drop on my account? ONE RAGNAROK, EVER. Or how is it that when I do get a purple, its one of the same three Fortunata Hypnosis's, or one of the same three Unbreakable Constraints? That does not seem very "random" to me, sorry. It seems awfully strange, as a matter of fact. Little too much pattern there for true random. Friends in game say the same thing happens to them: every now and then they score a Hecatomb or something very sought-after, but usually its a Fortunata Hypnosis. For a while there I was getting a lot of Soulbound Allegiances, then I started keeping and crafting them for my MM, so those dried up too. Random! No offense, but roffle. |
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First, as someone else mentioned, I am aware that temp powers drop from a seperate pool than purples. My point was that it seems that both myself and well... just about everyone, are spammed with temp powers in lieu of more useful recipes. And it seems to be 90% Plasmatic Tasers. Color me underwhelmed. | It may not seem random, but it is. Look at it this way- you're rolling a die, and the same number keeps coming up. It happens. What wouldn't be very random is a program that prevents you from getting a recipe you already have. |
Now as to the quote on this post, I would agree IF I WERE THE ONLY ONE THIS HAPPENS TO. I'm not; everyone I know gets 7-8 out of 10 purple drops as, one of the same 2-3 Fortunatas OR one of the same 2-3 Unbreakable Constraints. That's not random, folks.
If I go to the market to try and sell that Fortunata, surprise, surprise: that recipe is selling for chump change. This makes me think that me and my pals are perhaps not the only ones seeing those same damn three Fortunata Hypnosises. Mere random chance? Maybe.
But I doubt it.
RANDOM would be our having the same chance of getting a Ragnarok as we do of getting a Fortunata Hypnosis. Not seeing that happening, sorry.
Now I have three characters who can use Fortunata, so its always good to see a Fortunata, honest - but for the love of all that is holy, lets see some ACTUAL RANDOMNESS in supposedly "random" drops.
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No, it doesn't. It just means that the Fortunata is weighted to drop more.|
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
RANDOM would be our having the same chance of getting a Ragnarok as we do of getting a Fortunata Hypnosis. Not seeing that happening, sorry.
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Let's use a roulette wheel as an example. Most of it is either red (let's call that the Fortunata Hypnosis) or black (the Unbreakable Constraints). But there is a couple of green slots. Those would be the Ragnaroks. It's still random, but harder to get.
Of course, it's a bit more complicated than that, as there are a lot more types of purple, but that's just to give you the idea. Some items are more common on the drop tables than others.
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If certain things are "weighted to drop more" than that is a lot less random than many would like us to believe. | No, it doesn't. It just means that the Fortunata is weighted to drop more. |
The essence of "random drops" is that each thing in the given class has an equal chance to drop. This has been the opposite of what I've observed to be happening.
I would not use a roulette wheel as an example. The house is going to do everything they can to throw a spoke in the wheel of winning players, which is not exactly what they want you to think is going on.... on second thought, that's exactly what seems to be going on with "random drops."
If you are in a PvP zone and a purple drops for you, is it going to be a Shield Wall or is it gonna be a Fortunata? I know which one I'd place my bet on.
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Random means without pattern. All equal = a pattern. If all were equal it wouldn't be entirely random.
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Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
The essence of "random drops" is that each thing in the given class has an equal chance to drop. This has been the opposite of what I've observed to be happening.
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I went all summer without a single purple drop. Not a one.
Then I got 3 within a couple days. My BS/DA scrapper got 2 Gravitational Anchors within 5 minutes of each other (I was absoloutely shocked, I figured getting the one meant I wouldn't get another for a few months)
And my main got an Apocalypse a couple days later. Other than that I haven't gotten squat since probably around February.
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Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison See, it's gems like these that make me check Claws' post history every once in a while to make sure I haven't missed anything good lately. |
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what you, or I, or any individual observes regarding purple drops is pretty much meaningless.|
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
The essence of "random drops" is that each thing in the given class has an equal chance to drop. This has been the opposite of what I've observed to be happening.
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I've gone months without a purple drop. The Goat got two Apocalypses on the same mission one time. Neither of those 'means' anything with regards to the supply of purples in the game.
Random means random, and that means you might get 5 of the same 'junk' purple in a row and then not see another one for two years.
*shrug*
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I run the Council Farm on +2 X8 ill get some purples drops sometimes.....a couple nights ago i got a Armageddon and a apocalypse in the same mission..... soo i would say kill alot of badies by yourself with lots of badies lol
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And by "everyone I know", you really mean "everyone that I happen to hear complaints from". Guess what - the people getting good drops don't have reason to complain.|
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
Now as to the quote on this post, I would agree IF I WERE THE ONLY ONE THIS HAPPENS TO. I'm not; everyone I know gets 7-8 out of 10 purple drops as, one of the same 2-3 Fortunatas OR one of the same 2-3 Unbreakable Constraints. That's not random, folks.
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Anyway, despite your experience, my experience is that it does seem quite random.
Guess what else - a sample size of two people DOESN'T PROVE SQUAT!
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I've gotten 14 or 15 purple drops from Tip mishes alone since GR hit, including two today in a half hour span on two different level 50 tankers, running their mishes solo at +0/x8. Add in another two or three on ITF runs. This follows a span of about five months with no purple drops running with pretty much the same difficulty settings. |
Originally Posted by Q_Candy
It's intuition.
My intuition tells me that the Dev's cut the drop rate on purples to force people into hero mission grinds. Hence the price of your average purple on my server has doubled in the past month. Even the formerly cheap "proc" purples that were selling for 30 to 50 million pre expansion are now selling for 300 to 400 million. |
It can be insanely streaky at times but as said before... random is random.
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I actually accidentally vendored my first purple recipe a long time ago. I'm pretty certain that it was from a damage set, but I didn't look at it close enough (obviously) to recall which it was. Other than that one, of which I am not sure, I have never gotten the same one twice. I guess that I get all of Bad_Influence's random drops.
Fortunata Hypnosis and Coercive Persuasion are cheaper because there is less demand for them. Sleep and Confuse powers are fairly rare, and a lot of the people that have sets that have them either don't take them or don't really look to slot out purples on that character. This is changing somewhat with Electric Control being the new Control set and containing both types of power. As a result, you can see for yourself that the prices for those two purple sets have risen since Issue 18 went live.
I don't see enough evidence from my own drops that there is any weighting to any kind of recipe drop.
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Despite your consistently rude and unneccessarily hostile tone - both in this thread and others - I will take the time to address this.
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No, what I meant by that was actually "everybody in the game whom I know and team with on a regular basis" - not a huge sample size, but fairly good sized. Don't put words in my mouth, thanks. I will return the favor.| Ironblade: And by "everyone I know", you really mean "everyone that I happen to hear complaints from". |
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| Guess what else - a sample size of two people DOESN'T PROVE SQUAT! |
Perhaps a sample size of two isnt all that many, I will grant you that. I therefore turn to the market, consisting of tens of thousands of players, where things such as Fortunata Hypnosises and Unbreakable Constraints are selling for considerably less than many more desireable sets. Now why might that be? Perhaps we shall never know, but my guess is because these sets really do fall like rain for a considerable number of people. If its frequent, its cheap. Seems logical enough a conclusion to me.
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In reality the 'cheap' sets are slottable by fewer players, hence less desirable, hence well supplied on the market, hence cheaper.|
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
Perhaps a sample size of two isnt all that many, I will grant you that. I therefore turn to the market, consisting of tens of thousands of players, where things such as Fortunata Hypnosises and Unbreakable Constraints are selling for considerably less than many more desireable sets. Now why might that be? Perhaps we shall never know, but my guess is because these sets really do fall like rain for a considerable number of people.
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I'm continually befuddled by the wild explanations people cook up to explain basic textbook market forces. This stuff just isn't that complicated.
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You answered your own question right there, kiddo.|
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
things such as Fortunata Hypnosises and Unbreakable Constraints are selling for considerably less than many more desireable sets.
|
Let's try a supply and demand exercise, and assume for our purposes that purple drops aren't weighted (as we've never been told whether they are).
100 Fortunata Hypnosis recipes drop. 100 Apocalypse recipes drop. How many characters can slot that Fortunata Hypnosis recipe? Only characters with sleeps in their powersets - i.e. some Controllers and Dominators and only a few others. How many characters can slot that Apocalypse recipe? Every character with ranged attacks in their powersets - that's 10 of the 14 ATs right there, ignoring that the other 4 ATs get access to ranged attacks via epic/patron pools and some of them even have ranged attacks in their powersets (SS, Spines, Kinetic Melee). Basically, by level 50, almost every character has a power that can slot that Apocalypse recipe. Therefore there are a lot more people competing over the same supply so prices go up and fewer items sit on the market. Meanwhile, only a few people can use that Fortunata Hypnosis recipe, so there's an excess of supply and prices stay low while items sit on the market for longer periods of time.
Economics 101 - it really is that simple.
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That's pretty bad luck, I average about 1 purple every 8 mishes on -1/x8 (The same council mish, just never click the glowie), Sometimes I will get 2 after 10 mishes, or one after 6, but if I want one I go to that toon and before the end of the day I will have one or two, to go 500 mishes on a /x8 setting that is pretty bad.
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Originally Posted by GavinRuneblade
I have farmed up to 6 hours per week for months without getting a purple drop. Now, I am not the best farmer, but I was running either Borea rikti warzone missions at +0x8 or the code merlin arc set to +1x8. I probably did a good 4 or 500 missions with no purples. Random is random. That's just how it goes.
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Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
If you are in a PvP zone and a purple drops for you, is it going to be a Shield Wall or is it gonna be a Fortunata? I know which one I'd place my bet on.
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Since Shield Wall isn't a purple set, it would have to be a Fortunata, or another, actual purple set.
On topic, I got 2 purps last night in 30 mins of eachother, when i usually get one every couple of months.
Grav Anchor and, ironically Fortunata, which I need for my build, so i'm not complaining.
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Originally Posted by VoodooGirl
[*]Watching out for the Spinning Disco Portal of D00M!*
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I'm sorry, but that is not what "random" means. Random does not imply equal weighting. Random events are not all equally likely to occur.|
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
The essence of "random drops" is that each thing in the given class has an equal chance to drop. This has been the opposite of what I've observed to be happening.
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It's essentially random who gets struck by lightning. Obviously, it greatly increases your odds to actually be under a thunderstorm, but it isn't required. Likewise, holding a golf club up while in an open field during a thunderstom is a good way to make it way more likely that you will be struck, but it doesn't make it certain.
You can have something be random and one outcome be much more likely than the others. The outcome is still random.
If random meant all possibilities were equally likely, you could conclude we all have a 50% chance of being struck by lightning all the time. Wouldn't that suck?
By the way, Hamidon Enhancers are not equally weighted. As far as we know, all purple drops are equally likely with respect to one another. As has been mentioned, this is actually somewhat unfortunate, because some of them are much more in demand than others, so an equal drop probability means that the less desired pieces are oversupplied.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
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Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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That's not what "random" means.|
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
If certain things are "weighted to drop more" than that is a lot less random than many would like us to believe.
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| The essence of "random drops" is that each thing in the given class has an equal chance to drop. |
use it.
Two years ago I played an empathy defender (no attacks as I was always oncentrating on heals so attacks were pointless) that hit 50. That is hen I got the BM farm and ran the farm a lot for free. I never knew what a purple recipe was until I rejoined the game aout 2 months ago and ran some tip missions when I found out what they are. I got 2 purple recipes within the space of a half hour.
It's not an exact science. They come when they do. And in often the case for me it's mez's. Which is fine. I do understand any frustration in trying to get purples. It was very frustrating at first, and I too was very vocal about it here on the boards. But after time, learning how to effiecently nab purples the best way that I could, I've realized I was wrong. Yesterday I dropped two. A Soulbound Alliegence while farming, and Unbreakable Constraint on a lvl 49 AV story arc team in PI. Iin my experience, farming has helped my supply the most, which may or may not be how you wish to play the game. But I have to say, just by farming for a mere hour or so a day, over a few weeks, I have gotten over a billion influence in sales combind with the influence from defeats. Something I never thought I could ever attain. I just need to say that again. A billion. (ooh that feels good...)
Now that billion can easily just vanish in mere minutes buying purples on the market. But by just playing normally, the influence comes back. I've sank alot of influence in my few weeks ago on my Mastermind leaving about 5 mil left. I'm somewhere in the realm of 70 million now from teaming alot in PI, Task Forces, and WW sales. I was very aprehensive to spend hundreds on millions onf influence, I've discovered that it can come back pretty quickly.
BTW, I have to thank Fury Fletchette for my first billion.
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With all respect, that isn't a sample of any size. It's an anecdote. Human memory is horribly biased when it comes to remembering and analyzing events. Events like purple drops are the worst kind, because they're rare.|
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
No, what I meant by that was actually "everybody in the game whom I know and team with on a regular basis" - not a huge sample size, but fairly good sized.
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Mr Hassenpheffer and his friends recorded their drops as they happened -- they found random drops.
You and your friends are recalling past events -- you found a pattern.
There is absolutely nothing surprising about this because it's just the way the human brain works. This is why people design experiments carefully in advance, and use statistics to evaluate the outcomes. Start a prospective trial. Record all your purple drops, and see if you can get your friends to record theirs. That's the only kind of drop data that means anything.
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Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
Perhaps a sample size of two isnt all that many, I will grant you that. I therefore turn to the market, consisting of tens of thousands of players, where things such as Fortunata Hypnosises and Unbreakable Constraints are selling for considerably less than many more desireable sets.
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Here's the classic problem with trying to apply a generic definition to a MMO game. You're forgetting the key thing here: The Devs are using a RNG to come up with a purely "random" number but they are using that number to choose a drop from a WEIGHTED table. This allows the Devs to claim it's all random while still controlling the drop rate as they see fit. |
Originally Posted by rsclark
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Let me explain with a hypothetical look-up table. Let's say the Devs are using the following table:
01-10 = Drop A
11-20 = Drop B
21-50 = Drop C
51-98 = Drop D
99-00 = Drop E
Now from this table it would be easy to predict that Drops C and D likely come up far more often than Drop E. But here's the trick: when the Devs use their RNG to generate a number from 1 to 100 there's an EQUAL chance any value from 1 to 100 will happen. But just because there was an EQUAL chance of any value from 1 to 100 happening doesn't mean that has any direct bearing on how that number is going to be applied to a look-up table. Therefore you can easily have STRICTLY RANDOM values be weighted any way the Devs want.
Sure you could complain that the Devs are cheating or being devious by "misleading" us like that.
But remember they are the Devs... they're allowed to do that here.
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I hope this helps.
I've been running my missions, been running my 50's and the purple drop rate seems to be the same as it has always been,
I still receive purple drops no matter if its from a farm, a street kill, a paper, a radio or a hero tip, they all have dropped and still are dropping.
I don't really know what else to contribute other than that and a hearty good luck to you all.
Edit: I never have had a problem getting the purples I need. I have either sold the ones I don't need, or traded with friends. it helps to have a network of friends that hunt for purps, makes it easier to trade so you can get what you want. Notice I said Friends... mainly because friends don't try to gouge each other when it comes to helping each other slot a build. Take that as you will.
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