Purple Drop Rate


all_hell

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roderick View Post
Or, maybe that's the natural human tendency to see patterns where none exist, and random numbers are random?

Nah.... Couldn't be.

The thing is ... NOTHING is random .... nothing either man made or natural, everything has has a cause and effect,

Therefore the statement of"purple drops are random" has to be 'to (to some extent) false....

Here is what I think is most likely behind the Purple drop rate system

There are lots of 'random' variable conditions for a purple to drop, i.e day/time/player name/location etc , there could be a database with hundreds of continuations that are 'randomly' selected each day and mashed together into Tues/12pm/Players with S in name/Talos Island, there for the stats on when purples drop can be monitored over a period of time and why many people share the view about particular days being good for drops, therefore the devs would deny as system existing otherwise if people new the system they would actively farm purple ... inevitably destroying the market system and alienating alot of players .. it could lead to a game collapse!

The secret of the drop rates 'does exist' whether the Devs are aware of the numbers or not, the data is somewhere and could be interpreted to improve a players chances of getting a purple however as I for mentioned I believe knowledge of something like purple drop rates would only serve to ruin the the marketing system which could in turn have a very negative effect on the overall game.



((Disclaimer
Not a troll lol even though I know how this sounds
this is not meant to be a conspiracy theory im just saying that there 'is' a drop rate system because nothing is random))


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shady Sam View Post
The thing is ... NOTHING is random .... nothing either man made or natural, everything has has a cause and effect,
*looks at Quantum Mechanics*

*re-reads*

*looks at Quantum Mechanics again*

Mmmkay...


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowe View Post
*looks at Quantum Mechanics*

*re-reads*

*looks at Quantum Mechanics again*

Mmmkay...
And to take that to the next step what's going to happen when quantum computing becomes mainstream?
I suppose random number generation will become even that much more "random-er".


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowe View Post
*looks at Quantum Mechanics*

*re-reads*

*looks at Quantum Mechanics again*

Mmmkay...
Presumably, if you had absolutely every bit of information ever, of every object down to smaller than Planck length, from the Big Bang to now, you would know every thought going through my head for the rest of my life (you don't want to, though, trust me!), and you would know the results of all random events before they happen. (Of course, this presumes you both know the information and are capable of processing it all.)

Of course, this is essentially omniscience. Without omniscience, you don't need quantum mechanics to get an event with an unknown outcome but known probabilities for possible outcomes.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowe View Post
*looks at Quantum Mechanics*

*re-reads*

*looks at Quantum Mechanics again*

Mmmkay...
What has quatum mechanics got to do with computer code made my humans? Its hardly comparable to the goings on of the atomic universe?

Further more the fact that we do not understand quantum mechanics both in the essence that we cannot predict nor understand the behavior of particles fully on top of the apparent 'clash' between quantum mechanics and general relativity leads many to believe one if not both will one day be disproved/altered to match new understanding ... you really shouldn't pin all your eggs in one basket ... especially when said basket admits to having a hole in it.

Still though why are you comparing the behavior of microscopic particles to the workings of a computer script? with clear guidelines and rules written by humans?

your point seems ... erm lets say less than valid?


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shady Sam View Post
What has quatum mechanics got to do with computer code made my humans? Its hardly comparable to the goings on of the atomic universe?
Shadowe was responding to only a part of your post: "NOTHING is random .... nothing either man made or natural"

Quantum mechanics is our attempt to analyze the natural universe. The implied assertion is that quantum mechanics reveals true randomness found in nature.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shady Sam View Post
The thing is ... NOTHING is random .... nothing either man made or natural, everything has has a cause and effect,

Therefore the statement of"purple drops are random" has to be 'to (to some extent) false....

There are lots of 'random' variable conditions for a purple to drop, i.e day/time/player name/location etc , there could be a database with hundreds of continuations that are 'randomly' selected each day and mashed together into Tues/12pm/Players with S in name/Talos Island,

The secret of the drop rates 'does exist' whether the Devs are aware of the numbers or not, the data is somewhere and could be interpreted to improve a players chances of getting a purple
There's a bit of a leap between "nothing is truly random, there is a reason behind every event" and "the things that I can observe connected to an event are always the reason behind that event".

If I flip a coin at 10:25 PM on a cloudy Sunday while wearing a blue shirt and it comes up tails, there is obviously a great many factors that went into the coin landing tails up - the initial velocity and spin that I gave the coin, the pull of the Earth's gravity on the coin, the millions and millions of gas praticles in the air that it brushed against on its way, the particular qualities of the table surface it finally hit. But since the only things I can reliably observe are the time of day, the weather and the color of my shirt, does that mean I should draw the conclusion that the result of the coin flip is a combination of the time, weather and shirt color? Does that mean that somewhere there is a list of what times/weather patters/clothes cause which result on a coin flip?




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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lothic View Post
And to take that to the next step what's going to happen when quantum computing becomes mainstream?
I suppose random number generation will become even that much more "random-er".
And people will still complain about things like drop rates and getting hit too much in combat and assume the RNG was borked in the last patch

Quote:
The thing is ... NOTHING is random .... nothing either man made or natural, everything has has a cause and effect,
You obviously haven't met my mate Ollie. Truly and absolutely random.


 

Posted

I honestly don't care how often purples drop for me, the only set I actually USE is Fortunata Hypnosis. I just play the game, and if one drops my reaction is "Oh, cool! Free money!"

If you obsess over how often purples drop you're just going to get frustrated with it. I've heard so many people say things like "I've been running this same mission for DAYS and haven't gotten a purple drop, the devs need to fix this or I'm quitting!"

Really? You're going to quit the game because recipes that are SUPPOSED to be super rare won't drop for you? Okaaaaaay then.

Just play the game and don't worry about it. In my experience, when I play my 50s specifically to get purple drops, it never happens. I get them when I'm not even thinking about the possibility of purple drops.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison
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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shady Sam View Post
What has quatum mechanics got to do with computer code made my humans? Its hardly comparable to the goings on of the atomic universe?

Still though why are you comparing the behavior of microscopic particles to the workings of a computer script? with clear guidelines and rules written by humans?

your point seems ... erm lets say less than valid?
Obviously you've never written any code before.
I have a degree in Computer Science and even I know the "science" part of that only goes so far.

Ironically the deterministic rules of a RNG algorithm are never going to run absolutely 100% predictably given all sorts of factors up to and including cosmic rays flying through a computer randomly fliping a bit in memory. *shrugs*

Just because you don't like the idea of the fundamentally unpredictable quantum nature of the Universe doesn't mean its wrong. You mention "not placing all your eggs in one basket" with such theories. I would likewise warn you not to assume it will be disproven just because we can't wrap our feeble human minds around it today.

An orderly clockwork Universe might be nice for us to grasp.
We humans do like the idea of putting everything into its own little box.
But the real Universe doesn't have to do or be anything to appease us and it never will.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shady Sam View Post
What has quatum mechanics got to do with computer code made my humans? Its hardly comparable to the goings on of the atomic universe?

Further more the fact that we do not understand quantum mechanics both in the essence that we cannot predict nor understand the behavior of particles fully on top of the apparent 'clash' between quantum mechanics and general relativity leads many to believe one if not both will one day be disproved/altered to match new understanding ... you really shouldn't pin all your eggs in one basket ... especially when said basket admits to having a hole in it.

Still though why are you comparing the behavior of microscopic particles to the workings of a computer script? with clear guidelines and rules written by humans?

your point seems ... erm lets say less than valid?
Considering that you said nothing in nature is random, I thought it might be worthwhile pointing out that you're wrong.

Proven scientific fact: It is impossible (not "hard", not "beyond our capacity to calculate": impossible) to predict which slit a photon will "travel through" in the two-slit experiment.

Anyway, RNG's are written to use algorithms that follow one simple rule: Without complete knowledge of the input parameters, it is impossible to predict the result. And when the seed used to generate the random number could be using the server clock time down to the milisecond as the seed, and the result 1 milisecond apart could be anything in the range 00.01 to 100.00, I'm just going to stick with "random is random".


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lothic View Post
Obviously you've never written any code before.
I have a degree in Computer Science and even I know the "science" part of that only goes so far.

Ironically the deterministic rules of a RNG algorithm are never going to run absolutely 100% predictably given all sorts of factors up to and including cosmic rays flying through a computer randomly fliping a bit in memory. *shrugs*

Just because you don't like the idea of the fundamentally unpredictable quantum nature of the Universe doesn't mean its wrong. You mention "not placing all your eggs in one basket" with such theories. I would likewise warn you not to assume it will be disproven just because we can't wrap our feeble human minds around it today.

An orderly clockwork Universe might be nice for us to grasp.
We humans do like the idea of putting everything into its own little box.
But the real Universe doesn't have to do or be anything to appease us and it never will.
You couldn't have misinterpreted what I ment any more if you tried ... really hard!

Its not my style in 'flaming' over the internet at the end of the day i literally couldn't care less -_-


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by runt9 View Post
Could be. Humans like to find patterns for something that is supposedly random. The thing is, no one can know for sure. The devs have not outright said one thing or the other, the actual drop rate, or anything. The first thing I said is that it was a theory and was insane. It's about as likely as turning around to see a fresh-out-of-the-oven cherry pie sitting underneath your bed. But human nature is human, and if I can make a pattern, I usually do. I've seen the pattern work more times than not, but I'm also a very analytical and insane person, so spotting a pattern is easier for me because I find them where they don't exist.
It's intuition.

My intuition tells me that the Dev's cut the drop rate on purples to force people into hero mission grinds.

Hence the price of your average purple on my server has doubled in the past month. Even the formerly cheap "proc" purples that were selling for 30 to 50 million pre expansion are now selling for 300 to 400 million.


 

Posted

I really don't think the purple drop rates have been changed. I've gotten 7 purple drops since GR went live, but the catch is those purples were either from the sleep or confuse sets. So, otherwise I haven't gotten anything good.


[U][URL="http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?t=251594"][/URL][/U]

 

Posted

My intuition tells me that a greater number of people are playing, thus increasing demand for those purple recipes and driving their prices up. I've had three purples and a respec recipe drop for me in the last 13 days, and the only level 50 content I've done was a Maria Jenkins arc, a Recluse SF and tip missions. All of the purples were on tip missions with solo characters, and on each of those four level 50 characters that run tips nightly, I'm lucky if I defeat 50 mobs during the 5 missions on average.

13x4x50/3=~867 mobs/purple. Now, I can't give a good estimate of how many mobs were defeated on the Maria Jenkins arc or the LRSF, but I'd bet that it doesn't push that number up over the estimated 1/1500 defeated mobs that gets tossed around.


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Posted

Also, I'd like to add that if anything needs to be looked at, it's the HO drops. It appears that about 75% of the time when I go for the random HO, it turns out to be a Centriole. It's gotten to the point where I just delete them if I get one since I already have so many stored in my base and yet I've never gotten a Ribosome or Microfilament.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Q_Candy View Post
It's intuition.

My intuition tells me that the Dev's cut the drop rate on purples to force people into hero mission grinds.

Hence the price of your average purple on my server has doubled in the past month. Even the formerly cheap "proc" purples that were selling for 30 to 50 million pre expansion are now selling for 300 to 400 million.
Just for the record, it's all one market, across all servers and since i18, for both heroes and villains. So whatever is happening on your server is happening on all the servers.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shady Sam View Post
((Disclaimer
Not a troll lol even though I know how this sounds
this is not meant to be a conspiracy theory im just saying that there 'is' a drop rate system because nothing is random))
You really don't understand how a computer random number generator works. 2 things affect the result - what seed was set in the generator and how many random numbers have been generated since then. That's it.

The seed is normally set to system time/date (measured in seconds since some arbitrary date), but that seed could have been set the last time the server was reset or it could have been set 5 minutes ago. And the 32190842 result after that will be completely different than the 32190841 result. Even a bad generator that will have runs of high or low numbers will look random if you have thousands of numbers generated per second.

The only way there would be a measurable pattern is if one random seed was used for purples and not for anything else - and that would be a good reason to smack the programmer with a hammer.


 

Posted

I always thought they only dropped from minions.





Also, all drop calculations are done on the servers.
That means that you won't see a drop every 3000 kills or whatever, but someone will.

The extremely unlikely odds are so unlikely that they guarantee a LOT of people will never see a purple recipe and a few farmers will get most of them.

The people who kill the most have the best odds and take those chances from other people.



It's like the lottery where the more people that play the worse your chances are of getting any money, especially if somebody else wins and resets the jackpot.



If you really want purple recipes you need to farm a LOT or work on alignment merits. I prefer the latter since I'm entirely sick enough of the RNG grind for 5 lifetimes.


 

Posted

Random is random? Cool. Why do my drops often look like:

plasmatic taser
jetpack
plasmatic taser
Gabriel's Hammer
revolver
plasmatic taser
the baseball bat
plasmatic taser
jetpack
revolver
baseball bat
plasmatic taser mark 3 or whatever...

.....AGH! Stop with these freaking useless temp powers! Now no one sane expects purples to drop like this, but I question "random is random" to the last fibre of my being. Is it really random when I have had had ONE Ragnarok EVER drop on my account? ONE RAGNAROK, EVER.

Or how is it that when I do get a purple, its one of the same three Fortunata Hypnosis's, or one of the same three Unbreakable Constraints? That does not seem very "random" to me, sorry. It seems awfully strange, as a matter of fact. Little too much pattern there for true random.

Friends in game say the same thing happens to them: every now and then they score a Hecatomb or something very sought-after, but usually its a Fortunata Hypnosis. For a while there I was getting a lot of Soulbound Allegiances, then I started keeping and crafting them for my MM, so those dried up too. Random! No offense, but roffle.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence View Post
Is it really random when I have had had ONE Ragnarok EVER drop on my account? ONE RAGNAROK, EVER.
Yes.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence View Post
Or how is it that when I do get a purple, its one of the same three Fortunata Hypnosis's, or one of the same three Unbreakable Constraints? That does not seem very "random" to me, sorry. It seems awfully strange, as a matter of fact. Little too much pattern there for true random.

Friends in game say the same thing happens to them: every now and then they score a Hecatomb or something very sought-after, but usually its a Fortunata Hypnosis. For a while there I was getting a lot of Soulbound Allegiances, then I started keeping and crafting them for my MM, so those dried up too. Random! No offense, but roffle.
The problem is that human memory is enormously and notoriously flawed when it comes to remembering and analysing something like drop rates. If there is a problem, then the only way you'd be able to convince anyone in a position to do something about it (i.e., the devs) would be to collect enough actual hard evidence to demonstrate it. There are the tools available to do it, but very few people can be bothered to make the effort.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by macskull View Post
Yes.
Yes, not sure why people have such a hard time with this. Random=random. Weird stuff happens all the time. In a metropolitan area of 4-5 million people, I'd run into people I knew at one time or another more often than I do now in a metropolitan area of maybe... 200k?

Purples drop at a very low rate, so you'll see even weirder things with this. I haven't had one drop in a couple weeks, but I've had about seven or eight in as many months. Before this "spree" I had two drop years ago (which bankrolled me for awhile), and I do play 47+ characters fairly often. This is why you get excited when you have one drop, as you have no clue when you'll get it next.

Extremely rare should be so. This isn't the St. Louis Slugger temp power we're talking about.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by T_Immortalus View Post
I always thought they only dropped from minions.
If this was ever true, it isn't any longer. The latest one that I got, a Hecatomb Proc, dropped off of a Boss that was downgraded to a Lt. due to my settings.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Q_Candy View Post
It's intuition.

My intuition tells me that the Dev's cut the drop rate on purples to force people into hero mission grinds.

Hence the price of your average purple on my server has doubled in the past month. Even the formerly cheap "proc" purples that were selling for 30 to 50 million pre expansion are now selling for 300 to 400 million.
My intuition tells me that a new expansion came out recently, with four new powersets and six new zones, all of which are available to new characters only, and that these new characters can't leave the new area early.

My intuition also tells me that those characters that were created on the first days of the expansion started hitting 50 in fairly large numbers a few weeks ago, and new ones are still hitting 50 every day, in larger numbers than was previously normal.

My intuition tells me that a lot of people are running midlevel content, since their new characters are too low level for endgame stuff: I see more Citadel and Manticore TFs forming than anything else on my server.

Since there's all this low-mid level content being run, and a ton of new 50s looking for purples, my intuition tells me that the laws of supply and demand suggest that purple prices will go up, much like they have every time a new set has come out.

Intuition can be based on logic, or bat **** crazy conspiracy theories. I picked logic. Which did you choose?


@Roderick