[ QUOTE ]
I'm well aware of how wrap-around works. There were several arcade games back in the '80s I had problems with this in as far as score went.
As for 'Streaks' any true random number generator exhibits streaks. A good write up with some helpful visual info can be found at http://bcs.whfreeman.com/ips4e/suppl...cel/04_IPS.pdf
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but some algorithms are a lot streakier than others. And based on my experience and others I've talked to, there was a change to the random number generator used (I think with I2, but could be wrong) that became VERY streaky.
And plainly and simply...missing streaks aren't fun. It isn't fun whiffing time after time after time.
I wish we had the original random number algorithm back.
My arcs are constantly shifting, just search for GadgetDon for the latest.
The world beware! I've started a blog
GadgetMania Under Attack: The Digg Lockout
[ QUOTE ]
Ten misses against blue cons? Are you sure? Never, ever, ever seen anything approaching that. I know that three misses in a row feels like ten against whites or lower, but come on...seriously?
[/ QUOTE ]I have missed that much against green and greys too. I think the most extreme case was when my lvl 50 scrapper could not hit a lvl 1 hellion but he sure as hell could hit me, even if it is for 1 damage. 
Bump and Grind Bane/SoA
Kenja No Ishi Earth/Empathy Controller
Legendary Sannin Ninja/Pain Mastermind
Entoxicated Ninja/PSN Mastermind
Ninja Ryukenden Kat/WP Scrapper
Hellish Thoughts Fire/PSI Dominator
Thank You Devs for Merits!!!!
In the words of the famous Prof. Lucy Jones, spokesgeologist for Cal Tech, who was speaking with reporters about an series of earthquakes this past June that seemed grouped, but were not (as far as the boffins could tell) related:
[ QUOTE ]
Random distributions, by definition, sometimes cluster, or they wouldn't be random.
[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do I get streaks of 10 misses against blue cons? I should not have streaks like that more than once a year, but I get them 3 and 4 times a day. I feel that the issue is with the Streakbreaker code as well, not necessarily with accuracy overall.
[/ QUOTE ]
Apologies if this has been brought up earlier in this thread, but there's a psychological factor at work here, too: we're much, much more likely to notice streaks of 10 misses than equally unlikely streaks of hits.
Of course, assuming accuracy is 75% (I know it's higher vs. blue minions, but I forget how much and I'm lazy), the probability of 10 misses in a row is 9.5367x10^(-7), which is approximately the same as getting 48 hits in a row. This is so unlikely that you'd have to execute something on the order of one million attacks before you'd expect to see it happen even once. If you're seeing this consistently, then something is seriously broken -- but to such a degree that I'd be inclined to discount your claims as hyperbole without further evidence (demorecords, logs, etc.) if I were Castle or Geko.
[/ QUOTE ]
Actually, IIRC, it is impossible - doesn't the game have a streak-breaker? So that on an even con without defense powers on it, your 75% base accuracy turns into something like a max streak of misses of 3-4 attacks, the next being made to auto-hit?
Orc&Pie No.53230 There is an orc, and somehow, he got a pie. And you are hungry.
www.repeat-offenders.net
Negaduck: I see you found the crumb. I knew you'd never notice the huge flag.
[ QUOTE ]
As for 'Streaks' any true random number generator exhibits streaks. A good write up with some helpful visual info can be found at http://bcs.whfreeman.com/ips4e/suppl...cel/04_IPS.pdf
[/ QUOTE ]
Fun reading (really!) but now an entirely new and dumb question (forgive, forgive):
Is a streak in COH/COV terms defined as an instance of "X consecutive misses" or "X consecutive cycle of misses?" And are we talking in the case of one isolated power repeatedly clicked or any randomly selected power working through a sequence of the same probability scale regardless?
In other words, if X = a random variable (assume it makes no difference whether its the same power repeatedly clicked or several powers clicked in the course of a "streak") then:
X Misses = 1 Streak
_OR_
X consecutive cycles (X misses + 1 hit) = 1 Streak
I guess it stands out more now because I've never experienced a constant stream of misses alternated by 1 hit just on one power alone. The hit/miss ratio seems relatively even in COH (it's very rare I have a -9/+1 ratio of miss to hits in one cycle let alone repeated cycles with the same results).
It's not impossible for one person to experience this but for multiples of folks to get nearly the same results on nearly the same powers for the same AT all simultaneously? Trying not to generalize but there is an odd "community" pattern going on here.
[ QUOTE ]
Over the 4 day weekend, I left my computer running with Eviscerate on Autoattack. (Both my target and my character were set to not take damage so there was no worry about killing each other.)
I attacked a total of 38917 times.
I hit 29275 times.
I missed 9642 times.
That is a 75.22% overall to hit chance against an even level critter with no defense powers.
There is no "Accuracy Wrap Around" -- otherwise Blasters with Targetting Drone + Aim + Build Up would never, ever hit, which is not the case.
[/ QUOTE ]
Might want to take a look at this thread, which seems to indicate that while accuracy vs. even level foes is correct, the scaling of accuracy against higher levels is not:
link
The main problem I see isn't with the overall accuracy, but with missing streaks. What'd be really nice is if the streak breaker adjusted to match how much accuracy you have. If you're slotted enough to be capped against what you're currently fighting (meaning you only have that unavoidable 5% chance to miss) then the streak breaker should not allow you to miss more than once, maybe twice in a row. No idea what kind of coding would be involved in that, so it may be impossible to impliment, but I can dream can't I 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm well aware of how wrap-around works. There were several arcade games back in the '80s I had problems with this in as far as score went.
[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry if I sounded confrontational or condescending. When you said it would mean that blasters would never hit, you're thinking is that it would push the numbers into the negatives, and thus always floor the to hit chance?
It seems to me that only holds if there is nothing in the format or formula that forces the value to be positive.
Hypothetically, all I'm saying is that if negative values were disallowed, some sort of "wrap around" would give unpredictable results at high values, rather than uniformly missing. (ie. rather than the values wrapping around to negatives, they start at 0 again*) I'm not claiming this is happening, just that the evidence you gave (blasters not always missing) doesn't disprove all possibilites.
*it's been years since I did any programming, but it seems to me accidentally using a modulus instead of a minimum to "cap" a number would do this.
edited out the edit, because it made no sense
[ QUOTE ]
As for 'Streaks' any true random number generator exhibits streaks.
[/ QUOTE ]
The problem isn't whether there should EVER be streaks (there should be), or whether there should EVER be occasional long one (there should be).
The question is whether those streaks occur with a greater frequency or with greater length than could be explained by random chance alone, or whether they occur with such frequency/length that the statistical likelihood that it's "just bad luck" is near zero.
Again, I'm happy to do the statistical test on this and put it to rest once and for all if you or someone else can provide me with a hit-miss sequence and a KNOWN to-hit probability.
What bothers me is that you guys (and most players) keep testing global averages and brushing aside streaks as "clearly not the problem" or "streaks always happen", but nobody wants to test it.
Let's do the test. How hard can it be? And then we will know for sure.
F
Reminds me of Civ 1. Have you ever lost 3 Battleships to a single Phalanx? I have ... Over a long run this is virtiually impossible but computer number generators do not "remember" what was rolled before. Each new roll is 75% chance to hit. I've rolled those 1d4's for magic missles and had all 6 missiles roll 1's ..yuck heh? But I also have had all 6 dice roll 4's yeah! ...but in constant live action combat a 1,1,1,1,1,1 is not fun and bad streaks are happening often.
Accuracy needs a better streak checker ...this guy has missed 80% over the last 5 attacks lets get him back down to the 25% miss rate. A 75% hit rate should apply to EACH group of mobs if there are 4 even con minions I should hit 3 out of four of them every encounter. Perhaps every attack should involve 4-5 rolls and then the average is taken, this average would then be applied to the hit/miss equation.
Bone smasher against a 4 white minions each with 1 health remaining
rolls: 63,16,74,32,72 => 51.5 I got him good
Next minion
rolls: 82,96,77,76,07 => 67.6 I got him good
(notice I could have had a real bad streak under normal system!!)
rolls: 82,94,86,68,55 => 77.0 I missed!
(notice I could have had a real bad streak under normal system!!)
rolls: 96,58,66,96,56 => 74.4 I got him good
With my averaging system I hit 75% of the time which is normal. Under the current system I missed 8 times with 2 bad streaks for a hit percent of 60% thats a Dual Origin Difference and some bad luck!!!!
rolls are from:
http://www.random.org/nform.html
ArchRex Dojhrom x ?
* Sidus Loricatus: B-NRG2, S-BS/Reg, T-Fire/Ice, MM-Bots/FF, St-NRG2, Dom-Psi/NRG, Cor-Son/Traps, Cor-Ice/Kin, Ctrl-Fire/Kin, PB-LB/LA
* Arachnos Loricatus: Soldier, Widow
* Praetoria Loricatus: B-DP/Dev, Cor-Elec/Elec
[ QUOTE ]
The question is whether those streaks occur with a greater frequency or with greater length than could be explained by random chance alone, or whether they occur with such frequency/length that the statistical likelihood that it's "just bad luck" is near zero.
[/ QUOTE ]
In other words, what's the likehood of "cycles" of the same consecutive missing streak also occuring consecutively?
Random number generators aren't very random, true. But they're also not terribly capable of producing an 8-10hit miss streak against even cons *several* times per play session. The problem isn't in the generator, it's in the streakbreaker.
Then this...
[ QUOTE ]
...There is no "Accuracy Wrap Around" -- otherwise Blasters with Targetting Drone + Aim + Build Up would never, ever hit, which is not the case.
[/ QUOTE ]
And this...
[ QUOTE ]
I'm well aware of how wrap-around works. There were several arcade games back in the '80s I had problems with this in as far as score went...
[/ QUOTE ]
Are contradictory statements.
Why would you state the first, if you are 'well aware' of the second?
He's saying that he's well aware of how the concept of wrap-around works, and it isn't applicable here.
The Players' Guide to the Cities
[ QUOTE ]
Then this...
[ QUOTE ]
...There is no "Accuracy Wrap Around" -- otherwise Blasters with Targetting Drone + Aim + Build Up would never, ever hit, which is not the case.
[/ QUOTE ]
And this...
[ QUOTE ]
I'm well aware of how wrap-around works. There were several arcade games back in the '80s I had problems with this in as far as score went...
[/ QUOTE ]
Are contradictory statements.
Why would you state the first, if you are 'well aware' of the second?
[/ QUOTE ]
Because all those buffs, if warp arround, may take you to something like 5% IF there was warparround?
Heh, if a tree falls in the COH forest does it make a sound or miss the ground completely? 
Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.
[ QUOTE ]
Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.
[/ QUOTE ]
Not quite true. I had a PM from pohsyb about it a while back when i was doing my autocorrelation analysis of streaks in accuracy (showed nothing was wrong with the streakiness in and of itself). It is actually a look up table for different streakbreaker values based on a given Acc. (Not sure if it was Acc or Net ToHit). Thus streakbreaker can vary from 100 (1-10% acc) to 1 at 90-100% if I recall correctly. The largest jump is from 100 (1-10%) to 8 at (10-20%).*
*I could have the numbers slightly off, I saved the values on my other computer.
[ QUOTE ]
Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.
[/ QUOTE ]
questions...
do you mean the of the SAME attacks, or just 3 attacks...
what else effects it? Level? Mob type? Debuffs? I KNOW i've missed more then 3 attacks in a row... i do it often... now is that because the mobs are a level higher then me, (at MOST when i'm solo) or is it because there attacks have little defence debuffs tacked on to them that's mess with the streak breaker... because i can't imagain that debuffs don't effect it, it be way to easy to exploite... brawl... brawl... brawl, HEADSPLITER... brawl... brawl... get the idea...
How excatily does this steak breaker work?
@KingSnake - Triumph Server
@PrinceSnake
My common sense is tingling... ~ Deadpool
If you can't learn to do something well... learn to enjoy doing it poorly...
[ QUOTE ]
Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.
[/ QUOTE ]
Are we talking even con mobs with no defense bonus here? Or does it vary depending on what you're fighting? Will I still have that same streakbreaker against +3 Nemesis boosted with a good dose of Vengence? Because I know I've fought them in the past and missed more than three times...
[ QUOTE ]
Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.
[/ QUOTE ]
i wish that were the case. i've had numerous runs of 5 or more whiffs in a row.
[ QUOTE ]
Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.
[/ QUOTE ]
Then this is bugged. I missed 6 times in a row last night. You need to check it.
F
[ QUOTE ]
Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.
[/ QUOTE ]
That's only true if you're fighting even-con minions (or maybe any even-con). I know for a fact it's false for +2s, since I missed four times in a row (Char, Fire Blast, Blaze, Freezing Touch) with my Fire/Ice blaster on a +2 Sapper recently. I remember it well because of the hospital trip involved. 
Skip
My Char. List and Market Transactions
HeroStats Developer
Legion of Valor
Iron Eagles
I would assume he means "Three times in a row with the _same_ attack."
I must report that in the past my energy defender would fire off an Aim or BU and then fire off a snipe --- and miss. Enough for it to be noticeable. He should've missed once in 20 against most things he was fighting. It certainly did not feel like that.
Rend this space....