Accuracy


Acetylene_Torch

 

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In other words, what's the likehood of "cycles" of the same consecutive missing streak also occuring consecutively?

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As an example, someone posted having a demorecord that showed that when an enemy hit, the enemy ALWAYS hit exactly 3 times in a row. Every time a single hit landed, the next two ALWAYS landed. Every single time.

This should not be possible out of a properly-functioning random number generator. It might happen once in a while but there should be mixes of singleton hits and double hits and 4 hits and 9 hits and so on in between. 5 misses, 3 hits, 5 misses, 3 hits, 5 misses, 3 hits, like that... = something is wrong.

F


 

Posted

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Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.

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Sweet! So now we KNOW that the streakbreaker is broken any and every time that we have 4 or more misses in a row.


Be well, people of CoH.

 

Posted

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Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.

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That would make the minimun posible to hit for heroes 25%... I am presuming this is only if your ACC is at or over 25%...


 

Posted

Calm down guys. Castle has it wrong.
Here is what I got from Pohsyb a few weeks ago:
[ QUOTE ]

The streakbreaker will force a hit if there has been a long series of misses (only for heroes)

ACC / Length of miss streak before we force a hit
>90 / 1
80-90 / 2
60-80 / 3
30-50 / 4
20-30 / 6
10-20 / 8
1-10 / 100

The random number is calculated simply by the C stdlib rand().

[/ QUOTE ]

Now there are a few things that are unclear, such as is streakbreaker stored for each attack, when is a streak considered broken (any attacks hits, or just when that attack hits etc.)


 

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Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.


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bingo. thanks for asking about that. here's the problem: that's definitely not happening. since i5 hit live i've seen numerous 4- and 5-miss streaks. i just had a 4-miss streak the other night. and the problem i'm seeing isn't necessarily the streakbreaker kicking in or not kicking in: it's the fact that streaks of hits or misses happen so often and for so long. i see streaks of 3 all the time. way too often. bad news: the problem could easily be spread across more than one feature in the game: the streakbreaker logic, power chance-to-hit logic, power type for the powers involved (melee vs pbaoe vs cone vs ranged), accuracy modifications (ex. enhancers, powers that buff/debuff, etc)...we could be looking at more than one issue.

if we could run another long test or two like the one you did the other day and take a look at the streak stats, that could help a lot. some folks have mentioned situations where the streaking might even be worse than other places. i think a deeper look would show that there's something fishy going on with the streaking.


 

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Why do I get streaks of 10 misses against blue cons? I should not have streaks like that more than once a year, but I get them 3 and 4 times a day. I feel that the issue is with the Streakbreaker code as well, not necessarily with accuracy overall.

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Apologies if this has been brought up earlier in this thread, but there's a psychological factor at work here, too: we're much, much more likely to notice streaks of 10 misses than equally unlikely streaks of hits.

Of course, assuming accuracy is 75% (I know it's higher vs. blue minions, but I forget how much and I'm lazy), the probability of 10 misses in a row is 9.5367x10^(-7), which is approximately the same as getting 48 hits in a row. This is so unlikely that you'd have to execute something on the order of one million attacks before you'd expect to see it happen even once. If you're seeing this consistently, then something is seriously broken -- but to such a degree that I'd be inclined to discount your claims as hyperbole without further evidence (demorecords, logs, etc.) if I were Castle or Geko.

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Actually, IIRC, it is impossible - doesn't the game have a streak-breaker? So that on an even con without defense powers on it, your 75% base accuracy turns into something like a max streak of misses of 3-4 attacks, the next being made to auto-hit?

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That was kind of my point. Even if the streak-breaker code is broken, something's got to be even more spectacularly broken if streaks of 10 are relatively common. So, without some more concrete evidence than one anonymous person's say-so, it's hard to take this seriously.

This isn't to say it should be dismissed entirely -- just a suggestion that people who are seeing this should gather some hard evidence for Castle, Geko, etc., to take a look at.


 

Posted

This is contrary to almost every experience I've had in this game. I must say though... if it IS broken, I hope it stays that way in PvP. This idea would just suck for Defense and ToHit Debuff sets in PvP.


 

Posted

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Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.

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Funny, long ago in a thread far far away a Statesman said there was a Streak Breaker but it was so high you would never notice.

Also, I know for a fact it's not three times, I easilly miss 5+ attacks in a row sometimes. My personal highest miss streak when fighting even cons was 14 non brawl attacks or 19 attacks with brawl


 

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Calm down guys. Castle has it wrong.
Here is what I got from Pohsyb a few weeks ago:
[ QUOTE ]

The streakbreaker will force a hit if there has been a long series of misses (only for heroes)

ACC / Length of miss streak before we force a hit
>90 / 1
80-90 / 2
60-80 / 3
30-50 / 4
20-30 / 6
10-20 / 8
1-10 / 100

The random number is calculated simply by the C stdlib rand().

[/ QUOTE ]

Now there are a few things that are unclear, such as is streakbreaker stored for each attack, when is a streak considered broken (any attacks hits, or just when that attack hits etc.)

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If that's true, you should forward that PM to _Castle_ so he can follow up accordingly.


 

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I would assume he means "Three times in a row with the _same_ attack."

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I'm thinking he means "If you miss 3 times in a row with the same attack and your target is an even con minion." I can't imagine mob level doesn't extend your misses somehow because everyone really has missed more than three times in a row in the game. I've never tried three times in a row with the same attack though since I have attack chains for all my characters.


 

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If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.

[/ QUOTE ]So the minimum accuracy cap is actually 25% and not 5%?


 

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Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.

[/ QUOTE ]


Now that can't possibly be true at all.

I was fighting riktis today, and I can't hit the improved drones. At all. I was actually paying attention after the first two or three, and yup. We killed everything but the improved drones, just to see, and I'm missing white conned improved drones up to 12+ times in a row. I can't even hit yellow conned ones. The only way I was able to damage them was with rain of fire. My team mate had to kill them for the most part, because I just couldn't hit them.


edit: lol Oops, I didn't notice this was the stalker forum, I got to this thread via the dev tracker. Is that a stalker only trait?


 

Posted

I stand corrected.

This was PM'd to me by a user who got the info from Pohsyb.
[ QUOTE ]
The streakbreaker will force a hit if there has been a long series of misses (only for heroes)

ACC / Length of miss streak before we force a hit
>90 / 1
80-90 / 2
60-80 / 3
30-50 / 4
20-30 / 6
10-20 / 8
1-10 / 100

The random number is calculated simply by the C stdlib rand().

[/ QUOTE ]


 

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Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.

[/ QUOTE ]


Now that can't possibly be true at all.

I was fighting riktis today, and I can't hit the improved drones. At all. I was actually paying attention after the first two or three, and yup. We killed everything but the improved drones, just to see, and I'm missing white conned improved drones up to 12+ times in a row. I can't even hit yellow conned ones. The only way I was able to damage them was with rain of fire. My team mate had to kill them for the most part, because I just couldn't hit them.


edit: lol Oops, I didn't notice this was the stalker forum, I got to this thread via the dev tracker. Is that a stalker only trait?

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IIRC, if the Rain hits, that counts as a hit for the streakbreaker.

And it is for all heroes, not just stalkers.


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Posted

[ QUOTE ]
This was PM'd to me by a user who got the info from Pohsyb.
.
The streakbreaker will force a hit if there has been a long series of misses (only for heroes)
.
ACC / Length of miss streak before we force a hit
>90 / 1
80-90 / 2
60-80 / 3
30-50 / 4
20-30 / 6
10-20 / 8
1-10 / 100
.
The random number is calculated simply by the C stdlib rand().

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course if you examine that chart closely then what you said originally would be accurate for even cons with no special defense.

If the allowable number of misses for a 60-80% accuracy is 3 then that certainly fits the original comment, since the chance to hit an even-con is a base 75% for players. I assume the chart was purposely made simplistic for convenience. Obviously it can't be referring technically to the player's "accuracy" in a vacuum, but to the players final chance "to hit" after all of the variables are accounted for such as force fields, bonus defense, buffs, level differences, and so on.

So, if you for example were fighting a +3 Rikti Drone or Death Mage (both of which have notoriously high defense), then it is quite probable that you would have to miss more than the 1-3 times it would be if it was purely based on your power's beginning accuracy before the streak breaker forced a hit. Apparently he said "accuracy" meaning "final chance to hit".

That makes perfect sense, is a reasonable way to do it, and seems to line-up with my own arguably subjective experience.


 

Posted

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Streak Breaker (I just talked to Poz about it
If you miss three times in a row, then your next attack will always hit.

[/ QUOTE ]


Now that can't possibly be true at all.

I was fighting riktis today, and I can't hit the improved drones. At all. I was actually paying attention after the first two or three, and yup. We killed everything but the improved drones, just to see, and I'm missing white conned improved drones up to 12+ times in a row. I can't even hit yellow conned ones. The only way I was able to damage them was with rain of fire. My team mate had to kill them for the most part, because I just couldn't hit them.


edit: lol Oops, I didn't notice this was the stalker forum, I got to this thread via the dev tracker. Is that a stalker only trait?

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IIRC, if the Rain hits, that counts as a hit for the streakbreaker.

And it is for all heroes, not just stalkers.

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Oh, I know that. When I was testing my accuracy against the drones, I was testing it with all my attacks but the rain (since the rain did hit). So we'd kill off everything but an improved drone, then I'd blast at it. Everything missed over and over and over again.


 

Posted

_Castle_,

Did you check your previously posted log file, to see if you ever missed more then 3 times in a row?


 

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Then this...

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...There is no "Accuracy Wrap Around" -- otherwise Blasters with Targetting Drone + Aim + Build Up would never, ever hit, which is not the case.

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And this...

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I'm well aware of how wrap-around works. There were several arcade games back in the '80s I had problems with this in as far as score went...

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Are contradictory statements.


Why would you state the first, if you are 'well aware' of the second?

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Because all those buffs, if warp arround, may take you to something like 5% IF there was warparround?

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Unlikely, since Aim alone is supposed to be around 100% Acc buff.


 

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Did you check your previously posted log file, to see if you ever missed more then 3 times in a row?

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This would be interesting.

More interesting would be to see what the breakdown is and whether the streak behaviour can be explained simply by random chance or not.

F


 

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He's saying that he's well aware of how the concept of wrap-around works, and it isn't applicable here.

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Your statement makes little sense in relation to the discussion. (Other than as an attempt to be smarmy, in which case it is equally pointless.)


 

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I stand corrected.

This was PM'd to me by a user who got the info from Pohsyb.
[ QUOTE ]
The streakbreaker will force a hit if there has been a long series of misses (only for heroes)

ACC / Length of miss streak before we force a hit
>90 / 1
80-90 / 2
60-80 / 3
30-50 / 4
20-30 / 6
10-20 / 8
1-10 / 100

The random number is calculated simply by the C stdlib rand().


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Ok, now I KNOW that's not true. I'm a Martial Arts scrapper. I'm told that we have a 10% bonus to accuracy. (Im still not sure why- not complaining, just not sure) I have always used 2 slots for ACC enhancements- which are now SO's (+66%).

So that's a base accuracy of 75%, with a 76% bonus. That should put me at 132% (75 x 1.76) Accuracy, before I even click Focus Chi (+~50%?), or eat an inspiration. Then there's also whatever the bonus from Focused Accuracy with 2 Acc buff SOs is, too. (I needed a buy in power for my Epic Power Pool, and didnt need Conserve Power)

Even without the bonus from Martial Arts, that's a 66% bonus, or 126%. Really, it's even worse than that, as I usually duo with my roommate, a defender, running Tactics (+12.5%) with 2 Acc Buff SOs (whatever that adds, im not sure which 'schedule' those are), which should put me in the neighborhood of 141% Accuracy.

Assuming there's a hard cap of 95% Acc, I should pretty much ALWAYS be at that cap vs Even-Con Minions. Probably vs +1s or +2s, maybe even vs +3s (It sure would be nice to know what my accuracy vs higher level mobs is intended to be: In the old days, It would have been about 90% vs +4s, which is as high as I care about, since anything higher isnt worth any more.) I'd have to be debuffed 37% before it would even begin to register. Which means even with the crappiest luck in the world, I should be hitting one out of every two swings, according to this streakbreaker chart. I can guarantee I've hit way less often than that.

Perversely, I seem to hit more often vs +1 Minions than against even con or below. Really, there's just NO excuse for why I should miss a -13 minion more than once in a row (or ever, for that matter).


Edit: I just did the math- even with 1 lousy training enhancement (+8.whatever%), that puts Joe Random to 81% vs even cons. (84.75% for weapon users, and 88.5% for Martial Artists) Which, according to this chart, should yield a minimum of 1 in 3 hits. I can go brawl Hellions in GC right now and not see that kind of accuracy.
Your streakbreaker is broken.


 

Posted

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I stand corrected.

This was PM'd to me by a user who got the info from Pohsyb.
[ QUOTE ]
The streakbreaker will force a hit if there has been a long series of misses (only for heroes)

ACC / Length of miss streak before we force a hit
>90 / 1
80-90 / 2
60-80 / 3
30-50 / 4
20-30 / 6
10-20 / 8
1-10 / 100

The random number is calculated simply by the C stdlib rand().

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Except I've actually measured the streakbreaker, and it was working for villains (and those numbers are a little different than I measured in any case).

Someplace somewhere are the numbers I measured for the streakbreaker, measured by letting villains swing at one of my heroes (currently, that data is in a box being shipped to Ontrack).

Also, quite a long time ago I got a PM from QA stating that the streakbreaker only broke strings of misses (not hits) and it worked for both villains and heroes alike.


At this point, I'm of the opinion that nothing short of going to the source code will definitively state what the tohit calculator is doing, because we now have contradicting red name statements about it.


Perhaps this is just a formality, perhaps not: perhaps it points to the fact that there is a lot of informal documentation lying around regarding the streakbreaker proposal but no actual hard spec. But the table above has two peculiarities.

First, it has ill-defined boundaries (what does the streakbreaker do if tohit is exactly 80%?). Second, it defines what happens when net tohit is 1-10%. Except net tohit can never be lower than 5%.

As I said, it might be just minor errors, but one thing is sure: I couldn't code in an implementation for the streakbreaker if I was handed that table: I'd want clarification on those two points (what happens at boundaries? should I interpret the fact the table extends down below 5% to mean I should use *uncollared* tohit instead of capitated tohit in my code?).

Some place somewhere exists the literal coded definition of the streak breaker (perhaps it only exists in the code itself). It may literally take going there to get the absolute final answer.


The C standard library rand() function generates random numbers from 0 to some maximum value that is platform dependent. There are known problems with the randomness of the standard library rand() function: in particular, they tell anyone who cares (crypto, simul, assorted other geeks) that you should avoid the function if possible, or use the high order bits if necessary (the low order bits have known entropy problems).

If you do something like this:

x = rand() % 100; if x < 75 then hit else miss

...your random numbers will be borked. You're supposed to do this:

x = rand() / RAND_MAX * 100; if x < 75 then hit else miss


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Posted

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[ QUOTE ]
This was PM'd to me by a user who got the info from Pohsyb.
.
The streakbreaker will force a hit if there has been a long series of misses (only for heroes)
.
ACC / Length of miss streak before we force a hit
>90 / 1
80-90 / 2
60-80 / 3
30-50 / 4
20-30 / 6
10-20 / 8
1-10 / 100
.
The random number is calculated simply by the C stdlib rand().

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course if you examine that chart closely then what you said originally would be accurate for even cons with no special defense.

If the allowable number of misses for a 60-80% accuracy is 3 then that certainly fits the original comment, since the chance to hit an even-con is a base 75% for players. I assume the chart was purposely made simplistic for convenience. Obviously it can't be referring technically to the player's "accuracy" in a vacuum, but to the players final chance "to hit" after all of the variables are accounted for such as force fields, bonus defense, buffs, level differences, and so on.

So, if you for example were fighting a +3 Rikti Drone or Death Mage (both of which have notoriously high defense), then it is quite probable that you would have to miss more than the 1-3 times it would be if it was purely based on your power's beginning accuracy before the streak breaker forced a hit. Apparently he said "accuracy" meaning "final chance to hit".

That makes perfect sense, is a reasonable way to do it, and seems to line-up with my own arguably subjective experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

That chart isn't quite correct either (missed the 50-60 range). It's actually:

Final to-hit : misses allowed
>.9 : 1
.8-.9 : 2
.6-.8 : 3
.4-.6 : 4
.3-.4 : 6
.2-.3 : 8
0 -.2 : 100

You're correct, it's the final to-hit chance (in the range [0.05 .. 0.95]) of an actual executed attack against a specific target.

Auto-hit powers are not included in the system.

Critters get the benefits of the system as well.

The system does not track each power individually; instead it tracks every miss you make in a row, regardless of power (or target). Otherwise you could have nine different powers, each with a 0.95 to-hit, and if you executed them all in a row you could miss each attack (note a caveat at the bottom of the post regarding this).

AE attacks are considered distinct sequential attacks on indivudual targets for the purpose of the system (so if you AEd two targets and had 0.95 to-hit for both, you be guaranteed to hit one of them).



To determine the to-hit used in the table above, you take either the current to-hit, or the worst to-hit in your current miss series, whichever is lower.

As an example, imagine that your first attack of the day had a final to-hit chance of 0.91, but missed. Therefore you are currently in a miss series of length 1, with a minimum to-hit of 0.91.

For your next attack you choose to use an auto-hit power. It is ignored for the purposes of the system, so you are still considered in a miss series of length 1 with min to-hit of 0.91.

For your next attack, you use a normal attack with a final to-hit chance of 0.95. Since the worst to-hit of the entire series is 0.91, and 0.91 (miss series) < 0.95 (current attack), you find 0.91 in the table. The table states you are only allowed one miss, and so this attack is forced to be successful. The attack lands, and your miss series tracking is reset.

However, imagine that instead your last attack was less accurate, or you attack a different target which has more defense; lets say the final to-hit is 0.89 instead of 0.95. In this case, 0.89 (current attack) < 0.91 (miss series), so you have to use 0.89 when you look at the table. In this case, you are allowed two misses in a row, and therefore the attack is NOT forced to hit.

If you hit anyway, your miss tracking is reset.

If you do in fact miss (unlucky you), you are now in a miss series of length 2, with a min to-hit of 0.89. If your next attack has a final to-hit of 0.80 or higher, it will be forced to hit (because you're only allowed two misses). If the next attack has a to-hit less than 0.80, then it hits or misses like normal, and so on and so forth.



Something to note, for those inclined to note such things. Because we do the lookup based on your worst to-hit in the series, the streak breaker is a bit less aggressive about breaking streaks than it might initially appear from the table. If you miss an ill-advised attack with a final to-hit of 0.15, you would in fact be allowed to continue the miss series for another 99 attacks, even if all the followup attacks are of capped to-hit, should you be unlucky enough.


 

Posted

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This was PM'd to me by a user who got the info from Pohsyb.
.
The streakbreaker will force a hit if there has been a long series of misses (only for heroes)
.
ACC / Length of miss streak before we force a hit
>90 / 1
80-90 / 2
60-80 / 3
30-50 / 4
20-30 / 6
10-20 / 8
1-10 / 100
.
The random number is calculated simply by the C stdlib rand().

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course if you examine that chart closely then what you said originally would be accurate for even cons with no special defense.

If the allowable number of misses for a 60-80% accuracy is 3 then that certainly fits the original comment, since the chance to hit an even-con is a base 75% for players. I assume the chart was purposely made simplistic for convenience. Obviously it can't be referring technically to the player's "accuracy" in a vacuum, but to the players final chance "to hit" after all of the variables are accounted for such as force fields, bonus defense, buffs, level differences, and so on.

So, if you for example were fighting a +3 Rikti Drone or Death Mage (both of which have notoriously high defense), then it is quite probable that you would have to miss more than the 1-3 times it would be if it was purely based on your power's beginning accuracy before the streak breaker forced a hit. Apparently he said "accuracy" meaning "final chance to hit".

That makes perfect sense, is a reasonable way to do it, and seems to line-up with my own arguably subjective experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

That chart isn't quite correct either (missed the 50-60 range). It's actually:

Final to-hit : misses allowed
>.9 : 1
.8-.9 : 2
.6-.8 : 3
.4-.6 : 4
.3-.4 : 6
.2-.3 : 8
0 -.2 : 100

You're correct, it's the final to-hit chance (in the range [0.05 .. 0.95]) of an actual executed attack against a specific target.

Auto-hit powers are not included in the system.

Critters get the benefits of the system as well.

The system does not track each power individually; instead it tracks every miss you make in a row, regardless of power (or target). Otherwise you could have nine different powers, each with a 0.95 to-hit, and if you executed them all in a row you could miss each attack (note a caveat at the bottom of the post regarding this).

AE attacks are considered distinct sequential attacks on indivudual targets for the purpose of the system (so if you AEd two targets and had 0.95 to-hit for both, you be guaranteed to hit one of them).



To determine the to-hit used in the table above, you take either the current to-hit, or the worst to-hit in your current miss series, whichever is lower.

As an example, imagine that your first attack of the day had a final to-hit chance of 0.91, but missed. Therefore you are currently in a miss series of length 1, with a minimum to-hit of 0.91.

For your next attack you choose to use an auto-hit power. It is ignored for the purposes of the system, so you are still considered in a miss series of length 1 with min to-hit of 0.91.

For your next attack, you use a normal attack with a final to-hit chance of 0.95. Since the worst to-hit of the entire series is 0.91, and 0.91 (miss series) < 0.95 (current attack), you find 0.91 in the table. The table states you are only allowed one miss, and so this attack is forced to be successful. The attack lands, and your miss series tracking is reset.

However, imagine that instead your last attack was less accurate, or you attack a different target which has more defense; lets say the final to-hit is 0.89 instead of 0.95. In this case, 0.89 (current attack) < 0.91 (miss series), so you have to use 0.89 when you look at the table. In this case, you are allowed two misses in a row, and therefore the attack is NOT forced to hit.

If you hit anyway, your miss tracking is reset.

If you do in fact miss (unlucky you), you are now in a miss series of length 2, with a min to-hit of 0.89. If your next attack has a final to-hit of 0.80 or higher, it will be forced to hit (because you're only allowed two misses). If the next attack has a to-hit less than 0.80, then it hits or misses like normal, and so on and so forth.



Something to note, for those inclined to note such things. Because we do the lookup based on your worst to-hit in the series, the streak breaker is a bit less aggressive about breaking streaks than it might initially appear from the table. If you miss an ill-advised attack with a final to-hit of 0.15, you would in fact be allowed to continue the miss series for another 99 attacks, even if all the followup attacks are of capped to-hit, should you be unlucky enough.

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Okay now based off that chart

How can I make a NEW character, run up to PRISONERS in breakout and miss 10 times in a row?

Explain that one please. If you need a fraps recording I will be HAPPY to provide this proof.


 

Posted

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Here is the thing, if this test wasnt on the live server really it wont mean jack. We have seen several times explanations come in about how this isnt an issue. But when testing off the live servers it always seems to be the same answer. Which is there is no problem. Just like how there was no regen problem back when that was being tested because your internal tests allowed you to be fighting mobs of +6s, oh but someone forgot to turn on the level modifiers or something of that nature.

All players can go off of is experience, none of us can run 40k attack testing in a safe enviroment on a live server. But i can tell you that i normally dont slot my blasters until level 12 so for 12 levels i am fighting with no accuracy modifiers, and even fighting even levels strings of 5 and 6 misses in a row is very common, and before you say numbers and chance, why do we never seem to have the same chance to strings or 6 hits?

Then add even a 1 level modifier to the pot and that miss string goes way way up. Sorry but if your doing anything to the conditions at all to allow for a test, it means your not playing by the same rules we are on live. And to me then it doesnt count, until i see these kinda of numbers on live with no kinda of alterations, that meaning from a actual played character not one that is jerry rigged to take no damage and give no damage, i just wont beleive it. My experience is to different to.

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Please only speak for yourself then. I have rather large streaks of hitting, without a single miss, with my Spines/DA scrapper. And since I run two damage auras, I'll see the hits or misses as soon as they pulse. The only time my accuracy (2 ACC enhancements in my powers) seems to drop into a bunch of misses is vs CoT Death Mages or Nerva Spectral Demon Lords.

I have no notable problems with streaks of misses. As such, I'm inclined to believe it's your experience that is faulty rather than mine.