Should be good for the game, at least.
Goodbye may seem forever
Farewell is like the end
But in my heart's the memory
And there you'll always be
-- The Fox and the Hound
Quote:
And there went all the salvage supplies O.o
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Estimated Reward Merits: 25,810,525
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I believe I got about 200,000 of the restore/revival powers.
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These things are a million times better than Awake inspirations though. Revival grants untouchable and no stun. It's basically the Return to Battle vet power without the inspiration buffs. Restores are nice to have for the unprepared teammate. |
Originally Posted by Creole Ned
I believe I got about 200,000 of the restore/revival powers.
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Since I got so many of these from super packs I tend to keep a stack of these readily available at all times.
Currently on Virtue:
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Estimated Value of Points: $375,000 - $600,000
assume $15 per month. That is 40,000 months worth of subscriptions. 12 months per year, that is worth about 3,000 subscribers for a year.
Not massive, but I bet it helps
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Well usually I'm like Han Solo in that I don't like it when people "tell me the odds" of things but since I got my Black Wolf (on the live servers) in my 237th pack I don't feel -too- bad. At least it was less than the 420 you cited.|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Under optimal conditions, maximum number of Black Wolf pets that are statistically likely: 1428 (approximately one in 420 packs)
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Good luck to everyone else still 'chasing' that dream...
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Got one on Saturday night. I am the 1428.|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Under optimal conditions, maximum number of Black Wolf pets that are statistically likely: 1428 (approximately one in 420 packs)
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Quote:
| (numbers do not factor in reward token purchases) |
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Originally Posted by Nethergoat
it's NEVER too late to pad your /ignore list!
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Quote:
Anecdotally speaking I got all but one of the Elemental Set parts in my first 11 packs. I got the last part in my 17th pack.|
Originally Posted by Memphis_Bill
Ahh, but madame mathematics, how do the costume pieces fit into that?
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From what I understand that was fairly "typical" since they were pretty heavily weighted. I'll let Arcanaville worry about the numbers that'll likely corroborate that.
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Heh.|
Originally Posted by Lothic
Well usually I'm like Han Solo in that I don't like it when people "tell me the odds" of things but since I got my Black Wolf (on the live servers) in my 237th pack I don't feel -too- bad. At least it was less than the 420 you cited.
Good luck to everyone else still 'chasing' that dream... |
My irl frend that plays casually finally broke down and got some packs with some reward tokens, nominally hunting for catalysts. 20 packs opened, full costume set, Black Wolf in first pack and 8 catalysts. Yeah, he's that guy that's super lucky.
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More money=good things for Paragon and the players.. so Yay
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Paladiamors
I love you, I Burnt the Toast!
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Quote:
Yep the Black Wolf in the first pack is super-lucky. But in 20 packs I'd actually expect the full costume set and anywhere from 6-8 catalysts. I was averaging about 6 or 7 catalysts from each of the "24 packs" lots I bought.
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Originally Posted by Neuronia
Heh.
My irl frend that plays casually finally broke down and got some packs with some reward tokens, nominally hunting for catalysts. 20 packs opened, full costume set, Black Wolf in first pack and 8 catalysts. Yeah, he's that guy that's super lucky. |
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As I recall, it took me 22-24 packs to get the full costume when I did it on Beta. I have bad luck with gambling, so I've avoided the attempt with real money.
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Originally Posted by Lothic
Yep the Black Wolf in the first pack is super-lucky. But in 20 packs I'd actually expect the full costume set and anywhere from 6-8 catalysts. I was averaging about 6 or 7 catalysts from each of the "24 packs" lots I bought.
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Goodbye may seem forever
Farewell is like the end
But in my heart's the memory
And there you'll always be
-- The Fox and the Hound
Quote:
There's no way to estimate the number of those that were awarded because you can only get one of each and unlike the Black Wolf that is rare enough to make its statistically unlikely many players would buy enough super packs to theoretically average more than one (I suspect only a small fraction of buyers have bought more than 600 super packs) the costume parts are heavily weighted to award quickly. Realistically speaking, however, the average super pack has only about one of such costume part per pack for the average player for the first ten packs, and then that drops off even faster through the first thirty packs. The numbers above factor out the elemental costume parts as not being significant to the distribution. My guestimate is that at best they might account for a 5%-10% shift in the numbers above at most.|
Originally Posted by Memphis_Bill
Ahh, but madame mathematics, how do the costume pieces fit into that?
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Assuming we have about 100,000 subscribers and premium players who actually buy things, plus or minus, that would be six packs per player. My suspicion, however, is that the total participation is less than that, perhaps a quarter of that number. Assuming about 25,000 players are buying or have bough at least one superpack, that's an average of 24 packs per player. If they all received all eleven elemental costume parts, that's 275,000 out of 3,000,000 cards, or 9.2% of the total. That would reduce the numbers above by roughly 9% (the details would be a little different due to the rarity of the cards).
I suspect if a lot more than 25% of all players were buying superpacks, marketing would be highlighting that fact.
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I luvs 'em like candy.
I think I've popped open 10 so far and gotten a good return of cool stuff.
GRATZ to Paragon for making a successful product- the equivalent of 3k subs is nothing to sneeze at.
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Just about the only part of this I'd even come close to label "gambling" would be the single Black Wolf card. The rest of it is so close to the pseudo-deterministic side of the spectrum that I'll just have to respectfully disagree with your blanket statement.|
Originally Posted by Tenzhi
I have bad luck with gambling, so I've avoided the attempt with real money.
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Yes you might have to buy 50-100 packs to be virtually "guaranteed" of getting everything except the Black Wolf, but at that point it's not really gambling - it's just your willingness to buy that many packs or not. At that point even the ATOs are covered because if you didn't get the exact ones you wanted you likely have the means to sell the ones you didn't want to buy the ones you did.
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I have spent at least $200 on packs, and will spend more. I really like everything in them. For a long time I looked at the inspirations as clutter. Then I started using them in TFs and iTrials and I will say for sure they make a HUGE difference.
Yeah, I love the super pack. Life willing I will buy just as many of Super Pack 2 *** I did of 1.
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Quote:
Another way to look at it is that its about $150,000 to $240,000 per month averaged over the 75 days between their release and the end of April (the numbers likely would be slightly higher through the end of April than what was presented). Taking the low figure of merit, and assuming that fully half of all superpacks are purchased with either stipends (factoring in the fact that points are fungible) or reward tokens, and assuming that overhead is another 25% of the cost of selling anything through the store, that leaves about $56,000/month net revenue from superpacks. My suspicion is that it takes a lot less than $56k/month of development time to produce them, so they are contributing a net benefit to the rest of the game in terms of resources. They aren't likely to be stealing resources from the rest of the game, in other words. |
Originally Posted by dugfromthearth
Estimated Value of Points: $375,000 - $600,000
assume $15 per month. That is 40,000 months worth of subscriptions. 12 months per year, that is worth about 3,000 subscribers for a year. Not massive, but I bet it helps |
To put it another way, removing them from the game would cause a net reduction in everything else as well. So I think in the overall sense, they've been a net benefit to both Paragon and the playerbase in general.
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My stance on this was different when they were first released. I no longer feel the same. There is not anything in the packs that is not useful to me, except the Black Wolf which I have. Funny, I got it from the first pack I purchased with a reward token. |
Originally Posted by Lothic
Just about the only part of this I'd even come close to label "gambling" would be the single Black Wolf card.
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Oh, I also spent 33 reward tokens on Super packs.
Out of all of it though, my favorite cards are the reward merit cards. I love the 100 merit card, and anytime I get the 75 and the 100 merit card in the same pack I giggle like a little girl.
Super packs also made Enhancement Modifiers useful. ALL of my Staff/EA scrapper's enhancements are at +5. Yes it makes a difference, in saved slots, and how several other things.
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Quote:
As an aside, my motivation for doing these calculations started off with trying to figure out how many ATIOs were probably put into circulation due to super packs. Given the market activity on them, my suspicion was that it was thousands *per enhancement type* given very rough estimates on the amounts likely to have been generated from superpacks vs other means. That guestimate seems to have been confirmed by these numbers: in average terms superpacks have put about 3600 of *each* ATIO into the game, whether they end up being slotted or traded first. That's on top of merit purchases.|
Originally Posted by Lothic
Just about the only part of this I'd even come close to label "gambling" would be the single Black Wolf card. The rest of it is so close to the pseudo-deterministic side of the spectrum that I'll just have to respectfully disagree with your blanket statement.
Yes you might have to buy 50-100 packs to be virtually "guaranteed" of getting everything except the Black Wolf, but at that point it's not really gambling - it's just your willingness to buy that many packs or not. At that point even the ATOs are covered because if you didn't get the exact ones you wanted you likely have the means to sell the ones you didn't want to buy the ones you did. |
My guess is that there's so many of them in circulation most of them could still be sitting in players' character claim bins because it makes no sense to yank them and sell them and people are just holding onto them until they find a use for them.
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You know there are a lot of people out there who run their websites based on the "tip denotations" they get from people sending them money via things like PayPal. I've often found myself wanting to "tip" Paragon Studios above and beyond what I pay them with my subscriptions. To me Super Packs have now become my straightforward way to sent them a few extra dollars here or there whenever I think they deserve it. |
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
To put it another way, removing them from the game would cause a net reduction in everything else as well. So I think in the overall sense, they've been a net benefit to both Paragon and the playerbase in general.
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Yep I think they've been great to many people for many reasons.|
Originally Posted by Zyphoid
My stance on this was different when they were first released. I no longer feel the same. There is not anything in the packs that is not useful to me, except the Black Wolf which I have. Funny, I got it from the first pack I purchased with a reward token.
Oh, I also spent 33 reward tokens on Super packs. Out of all of it though, my favorite cards are the reward merit cards. I love the 100 merit card, and anytime I get the 75 and the 100 merit card in the same pack I giggle like a little girl. Super packs also made Enhancement Modifiers useful. ALL of my Staff/EA scrapper's enhancements are at +5. Yes it makes a difference, in saved slots, and how several other things. |
I've gotten a lot of use from things like the Enhancement Boosters, ATOs and the team/dual inspirations. Ironically I couldn't care less about Reward Merits - I had billions of INF horded on my characters before Super Packs launched so I don't really care about converting them to anything else. I have something like 12,000+ Merits sitting unclaimed in my account - you want some?
Still bottomline is that I think they are useful in enough different ways to be considered a success for all those concerned.
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Well I'd be happy to help you tip them so send me your extra money. I still haven't gotten the black doggie. |
Originally Posted by Lothic
You know there are a lot of people out there who run their websites based on the on the "tip denotations" they get from people sending them money via things like PayPal. I've often found myself wanting to "tip" Paragon Studios above and beyond what I pay them with my subscriptions. To me Super Packs have now become my straightforward way to sent them a few extra dollars here or there whenever I think they deserve it.
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During the Pummit, I believe it was announced that NCSoft sold over 600,000 super packs (aka three million cards). Based on the best information we have available for super pack content, I can estimate how much "stuff" has been delivered to players in superpacks. For those that like number blizzards, here's my super pack results:
Estimated number of cards by type:
Common: 1,326,000
Uncommon: 600,000
Rare: 600,000
Very Rare: 474,000
Estimated Consumables (totals, not cards):
Medium Dual Inspirations: 132,600
Medium Team Inspirations: 99,450
Medium Team Dual Inspirations: 66,300
Large Dual Inspirations: 116,025
Large Team Inspirations: 82,875
Large Team Dual Inspirations: 49,725
Enhancement Unslotters: 397,782
Enhancement Boosters: 1,268,980
Enhancement Catalyst: 38,548
Revive Temporary Power: 289,978
Restore Temporary Power: 289,978
Experienced Temporary Power: 454,032
XP Booster: 247,439
Windfall Power: 227,766
Prestige Booster: 49,725
Estimated ATIOs: 260,792
Estimated Reward Merits: 25,810,525
Miscellany:
Estimated value of ATIOs in superpacks based on current pricing: five to fifteen trillion influence
Under optimal conditions, maximum number of Black Wolf pets that are statistically likely: 1428 (approximately one in 420 packs)
Estimated Points spent on Superpacks: between 36 and 48 million
Estimated Value of Points: $375,000 - $600,000
(numbers do not factor in reward token purchases)
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