Inf Supply: Idle Speculation


Another_Fan

 

Posted

So does anyone want to take a wild guess at what converters (and the sales volume of really expensive things therefrom) have done to the inf supply?

My guess is this:

About a hundred people made about a hundred billion each
About a thousand people made about ten billion each

Total: about twenty trillion changed hands, two trillion burnt.

Skilled people made 50 million per converter; if we assume a learning curve and say 20 million per converter, that's on the order of 100,000 converters used at a quarter million each, 25 billion burnt on those.
Let's say 10% of those converters come from 1000 hero merits, and half those hero merits are made from reward merits: 500 hero merits at 20 million each = 10 billion burnt on those.

OK, those are relatively trivial sums next to the market fees, but I didn't know that till I did the math.

so 2 trillion inf out of maybe 100 trillion in game. Does that number seem reasonable?


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Posted

I can say I made around 80billion INF and rising... slowly now.

Not sure how many people made billions and billions.

I had around 40 toons over 1500 Reward merits, and a lot and a lot of -1000merit toons.

Also I did a lot of the L1 PB trick, some say exploit...

On my main toon for trials I've managed to hoard up to 4000astral merits and 267 Emp Merits.

I'm too lazy to know how much I actually burned. But the 80billion INF is the final I've made atm.

Also burned thru my 8bins of pvp IOs, down to flipping/converting pvp IOs. Managed to make 5billion(make that 4billion after my LOLextra 0 curse) in 3days.

Editting: Math in progress....
40toons x1500merits / 10 x 250,000 = 1.5bill
**guessing my average merits on a toon is around 450**
35x450/10x250,000= 394mill

About 4 or 5 hours creating/deleting toons for the vet reward merits about 25converts a hour x 4hrs = 225mill?

Now for the astrals..
4000/3 = 1,332 purchases x 500,000= 666mill

and emps.
267 x 1.25 = 333.75mill

and 3 characters used A-Merits already, 7.5mill

I am around 4billion for purchasing 11,704(-100 from L1 trick) converters. Not so sure about WW fees.


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Posted

Seems like decent assumptions. There's also a ton of influence melted from the massive amount of WW fees collected as stuff changed hands. As near as I can tell, I did about 160B worth of WW business as either a buyer or a seller, on my way to profit about 250B worth of stuff. (About 30B liquid, the rest as a huge stash of stuff I'm keeping to use that I didn't have before.)


 

Posted

I didn't have any PvP IOs or recipes stashed up before converters went live. I had several toons that were needing kin combats and reactive armors, I (suppose foolishly) used my reward merits for those first.

But, even still, after the supply for my toons was taken care of, I still managed to make over 20 billion. (as well as have a healthy stash of panacea sets, glad procs and Shield Wall procs.)


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Posted

I've probably gone up a bit more than 20B liquid, but I've also been slotting and storing purples at about 5 times my normal rate. And I had almost nothing stored before the converters hit, partly because I was lazy, and partly it was too good to be true so I didn't invest as heavily as I should have.

So my churn rate since converters has been *huge*. If you count the market fees on the crap purples I'm buying, plus the fees on the converted purples that I'm selling, I've got a pretty steady bonfire going right now. (I've also got a pyre set up on my private SG that I finally decided that I needed to store all the fancy purples. Over a million prestige and counting.)


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens View Post
So does anyone want to take a wild guess at what converters (and the sales volume of really expensive things therefrom) have done to the inf supply?
Given the way that the market easily absorbed the initial shock on the first day of the patch, I'd say they barely moved the needle. And I haven't done much since my initial profit-taking myself. I've bought a few 'cheap' purples to use up some of the converters I've looted, but in doing so I feel like a retired person who works a part-time job just to keep busy. Before converters were announced I was spending nearly a billion inf per week on consignment fees, and I'm certainly nowhere near that figure now.


 

Posted

When people count what they made is it in liquid form?

cause if you count whats in bins i wouldnt know where to even begin.


 

Posted

My idle speculation of INF supply pretty much begins and ends with my own characters. The same 40ish billion in liquid INF I was doing nothing with a few weeks ago is the same 40ish billion in liquid INF I still have today. I think it's cool the Converters came along to shake things up but I'm not here primarily to play "City of Wall Street" so I'm content to just let the Converters generally lower the prices on most of the most expensive things and move forward from there.


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Posted

The other side of the coin would be to ask how much influence did converters release back into circulation?

Over the years the price of Purples and PvP recipes has risen. Many people put low ball bids in hoping to get them, but the market didn't dip down to fill those bids.

Others stored tens of billions of influence in low ball bids thinking that there was no way a PvP +Def could ever drop to a billion.

More people have left the game then are currently subscribed and at least some of them left these "Unfillable" bids effectively locking all of this influence out of circulation. That is until converters came along.

We know of at least one person who still plays who accidentally injected 34 billion influence onto the market in this way.

http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?t=286373


So how many billions have been released into circulation due to Converters allowing "unfillable" bids to be filled?

One way we might get some insight (or not) is if anyone has data on how many bids were pending for the PvP +def one hour before converters went live and the hours and days since.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens
So does anyone want to take a wild guess at what converters (and the sales volume of really expensive things therefrom) have done to the inf supply?

My guess is this:

About a hundred people made about a hundred billion each
About a thousand people made about ten billion each

Total: about twenty trillion changed hands, two trillion burnt.

Skilled people made 50 million per converter; if we assume a learning curve and say 20 million per converter, that's on the order of 100,000 converters used at a quarter million each, 25 billion burnt on those.
Let's say 10% of those converters come from 1000 hero merits, and half those hero merits are made from reward merits: 500 hero merits at 20 million each = 10 billion burnt on those.

OK, those are relatively trivial sums next to the market fees, but I didn't know that till I did the math.

so 2 trillion inf out of maybe 100 trillion in game. Does that number seem reasonable?
Well, I think there's quite a lot more than 100T influence in the game to begin
with, and I thought even you were willing to consider that there could be 3-5X
that much, based on the results of my inf survey a couple months back.

Has your position on this changed recently?



Anyway, back to the question at hand.

I don't think your estimates are out-of-whack by any means.

Depending on what assumptions about avg profit per IO, # of IOs traded, and number
of active players doing conversions, I come out with 5T-40T exchanged when
I dabble with various combinations of numbers based on those assumptions.

Typically, I come up with ~15T with IO volumes of ~30K traded.

Some factors I believe have an effect on the overall results:

1> I think most of the Big Hitters planned to trade using A merits, which didn't
release. I don't doubt they still got in with R merits, but probably with lower
volumes than planned.

Converters from A merits only came out Tuesday, and prices haven't changed
noticeably this week, so I don't think we've seen any appreciable effect from those yet.

The bulk of the effect so far, imho, has been based on R merits early on.

2> Prices plummetted very rapidly on Converter Day, so, I think avg profit per IO
also dropped quite quickly, especially considering that only 1/2 dozen IO's were
above 1B to begin with. The earliest traders hit the motherlode, but I think
there'd be a sharp drop-off after the first couple hours.

3> A *lot* of folks have/had decent numbers of R merits, and I'd think that more than
1000 people probably exchanged some of them, but probably for lower profits
on average,
individually. So, I think the 1000 is low, the 10B high (for an average).


All in all, I'd say 20T is as reasonable an estimate as any... YMMV.


Regards,
4


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Posted

I'm using 100T because, while there could well be more, I don't want to go too far above the ArcanaEstimate. I'm a wimp like that.

I got to my 100x100B, 1000x10B estimates through much, much less scientific means than you might imagine. . . and I'm expecting a lot more flow this weekend.

(There's also been a bloody battle on Exalted for #1-3 as well as Slax dumping 128 billion inf into prestige on Victory. Hey, every half-trillion counts. )


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by gec72 View Post
Inf Supply's Idle Speculation is ok, but I much prefer Making Procs Out of Nothing At All.
I'd go with I'm all out of LOTG's.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens View Post
I'm using 100T because, while there could well be more, I don't want to go too far above the ArcanaEstimate. I'm a wimp like that.
Okie Dokie. I find it interesting, as much as we focus on data here, that you'd completely
revert away from actual testing (and your own stated position) to fall back on Acanaville's
estimate, which, as far as I know, is based on nothing factual other than a dev post which
was off by a factor of 1000, presumed to be a particular number by the players (never
confirmed by devs afaik), and basically doubled because it was a year old.

I have a great deal of respect for the Mistress of Math herself, but very little
confidence in that 100T number - and certainly not without actual data to back
it up, but hey, I'm just silly that way...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens
I got to my 100x100B, 1000x10B estimates through much, much less scientific means than you might imagine. . . and I'm expecting a lot more flow this weekend.
Based on the prior point, I'm not the least bit surprised about a non-scientific
guess in this case.

That said, I don't think it's an unreasonable unscientific guess, if we also concede
that it may have a large margin (ie. factors of .3 - 3X or so) of possible error.

Playing around with my quick spreadsheet, and a bunch of speculative values, didn't
produce anything radically different from your picks, other than a pretty wide range,
depending on your chosen assumptions.

I do agree with your thought that we'll probably start seeing the next wave
of Converter Day effects soon, as folks start putting their A/V merits to work.

Given that prices have been considerably squeezed from the first round, I'm not
sure how much more effect we'll actually see, but I'd certainly expect some.

Quote:
(There's also been a bloody battle on Exalted for #1-3 as well as Slax dumping 128 billion inf into prestige on Victory. Hey, every half-trillion counts. )
Hehe, more S/VG prestige wars? Fun. I've been re-stocking Granny's coffers
to warm up Virtue's fire pit some, but I'm not sure it would move us up from 3rd place
there. Still, amusing stuff.


Cheers,
4


I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.

 

Posted

I wonder if the Devs know how much INF is in the game?


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by graystar_blaster View Post
When people count what they made is it in liquid form?

cause if you count whats in bins i wouldnt know where to even begin.
This, pretty much. I have NEVER made my money by selling purple or PvP IOs, so as you might expect, what converters have allowed me to do is hoard hundreds of purple and PvP IOs for future characters. I made no actual money from converters, but I used them a lot.

I've been making a lot of money from ATOs though.



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Posted

When people make billions and billions in this game... I have to wonder as to why? What could you possibly do with all that? I think I have maybe 3 billion across all of my characters, and it feels to me like I am unimaginably wealthy. That amount will last me for a very long time. I would likely start giving it away if I had an order of magnitude more than that.



 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thirty-Seven View Post
When people make billions and billions in this game... I have to wonder as to why? What could you possibly do with all that? I think I have maybe 3 billion across all of my characters, and it feels to me like I am unimaginably wealthy. That amount will last me for a very long time. I would likely start giving it away if I had an order of magnitude more than that.
Sometimes I like to go for a swim.


 

Posted

I've never been able to really get a grip on the market - its just a bit beyond me in terms of getting the best prices and finding those lowball bids for rare salvage

I've always found it easier to make billions off AE rolls although it is somewhat more labour intensive than marketeering :s


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Posted

I pile mine up and gawk at it.

Seriously, my billions fund any characters I start or new things I want to buy, which sometimes does add to a few billion. It's "nice" to know that there's nothing a new character might need that I will have to struggle to get. But, having many, many billions is excessive for that too. So, I also fund my supergroups prestige and burn inf into prestige for other groups I feel have good concepts. So why keep going? Well that's a mater of "score" in the market mini-game. Once a month, I run through all my characters and total up their actually liquid assets - cash on hand and WW bids which could be cancelled and redeemed for full value. I don't plan to ever spend most of it, and it's not anything like the ultra-rich in this game, but it shows me I can do it.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Organica View Post
This, pretty much. I have NEVER made my money by selling purple or PvP IOs, so as you might expect, what converters have allowed me to do is hoard hundreds of purple and PvP IOs for future characters. I made no actual money from converters, but I used them a lot.

I've been making a lot of money from ATOs though.
This, except I hoard the ATOs as well. I'm a hoarder, if there were a TV show for COH hoarders I'd have an episode. I've probably spent 3,000 or so reward merits and I'm-not-counting influence on converters. I could sell it all, but I don't really enjoy marketing. I enjoy setting up my SGs with phat lewt and giggling when my friends use it. I get to see their characters shine and we can run on insane difficulty levels.

I love converters because now I rely on the market even less. I only need it to fill in the holes, because I either get as drops or convert or buy with merits most everything I need now.


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Posted

A while back Cathulu asked:

Quote:
So how many billions have been released into circulation due to Converters allowing "unfillable" bids to be filled?
I'm starting to think this is a significant effect; either that or the lower price of the rare PVPs is freeing up inf for the rest of the build.

("I would have had to put two billion into that 3% Glad; now I can save a billion and still buy everything else for BUY IT NAO prices!" )

What I mean is, I'm seeing prices on a lot of things go UP. The market is a lot looser (in the slot machine sense.) People don't seem to care as much if they spend an extra 40 million on something.

Interesting times, interesting times.


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So you think you're a hero, huh.
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