City of Heroes: Live Forum Archive

Super Packs Update 2/13/2012 - The Numbers

Agent White

By Agent White,
Posted on: 2012-02-13 18:06 in Developers' Corner

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snow Globe View Post
Actually 14.06%.
Whoops, I subtracted the quantity and not the weight in my head. I should go edit that so it looks like you're correcting someone else.

Since the costume parts are heavily weighted, they drop fast and then disappear: the odds *without* them are the odds you'll likely tend to see very quickly for everything except the costume parts, and the odds *with* them most closely parallel the odds of actually getting the costume parts in the first place.

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snow Globe View Post
Common roll 1-100.
  • Medium Dual Inspirations appear 8 times on that table.
  • Medium Team Inspirations appear 6 times on that table.
  • Medium Team Dual Inspirations appear 4 times on that table.
  • Large Dual Inspirations appear 7 times on that table.
  • Large Team Inspirations appear 5 times on that table.
  • Large Team Dual Inspirations appear 3 times on that table.
  • Enhancement Unslotter appears 5 times on that table.
  • Enhancement Booster appears 6 times on that table.
  • Revive Temp Power appears 8 times on that table.
  • Restore Temp Power appears 8 times on that table.
  • Experienced Power appears 5 times on that table.
  • Prestige Boosters appear 3 times on that table.
  • Reward Merits appear 12 times on that table.
  • The Elemental Order Belt appears 10 times on that table.
  • The Elemental Order Sleeves appears 10 times on that table.

Extrapolate the Uncommon, Rare, and Very Rare groups.
That doesnt answer his question about the "weight"

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by ph0enix View Post
That doesnt answer his question about the "weight"
Actually, it does, along with Snow and Arcana developing that same response in-depth for the last page.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
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Posted

As a 4.5 year veteran, on a budget, I have neither Paragon Points nor Reward Points to spare. Nor do I wish to encourage the company to encourage my fellow players to gamble. I will not be supporting this product.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angelxman81 View Post
I bought only 5 packs to give it a try since I had more than 3.000 points.
I got all the costume pieces, I think only the boots left.
I think you guys should stop complain and give them a try.
I got the belt and the shoulder piece (the pieces I was more intereset of) in the first pack!
Cant wait for next round of super packs!
I tried it within the last couple of weeks on Beta. It took me around 40 packs to get all the costume pieces. I've been down this road with other "collectible" items and I've come to the conclusion I'm not interested in that sort of scamble.

Goodbye may seem forever
Farewell is like the end
But in my heart's the memory
And there you'll always be
-- The Fox and the Hound

 

Posted

Bought a pack tonight, just for lulz.

I gotta say, it was fun, in a cerebal way.

I ended up buying 3 more packs after flipping my 1st 5, just to get a good swath of stuff. I was pleasantly surprised that all but one had at least one costume piece in them. All in all, I'm pleased with this.

While I'm against them including costume pieces, without an ingame method of unlocking, I understand why they made that choice. I wouldn't have bothered buying any if it wasn't for the exclusives. Business has to come first and all.

Maestro Mavius - Infinity
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Keep Calm & Chive On!

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by ph0enix View Post
That doesnt answer his question about the "weight"
Okay, just for you, I'll go in detail.

They've set up the common table and they weighted it in this way:
  1. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  2. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  3. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  4. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  5. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  6. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  7. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  8. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  9. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  10. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  11. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  12. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  13. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  14. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  15. One of 4 types of Medium Team Dual Inspirations.
  16. One of 4 types of Medium Team Dual Inspirations.
  17. One of 4 types of Medium Team Dual Inspirations.
  18. One of 4 types of Medium Team Dual Inspirations.
  19. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  20. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  21. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  22. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  23. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  24. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  25. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  26. One of 5 types of Large Team Inspirations.
  27. One of 5 types of Large Team Inspirations.
  28. One of 5 types of Large Team Inspirations.
  29. One of 5 types of Large Team Inspirations.
  30. One of 5 types of Large Team Inspirations.
  31. One of 3 types of Large Team Dual Inspirations.
  32. One of 3 types of Large Team Dual Inspirations.
  33. One of 3 types of Large Team Dual Inspirations.
  34. Enhancement Unslotter x1
  35. Enhancement Unslotter x1
  36. Enhancement Unslotter x1
  37. Enhancement Unslotter x1
  38. Enhancement Unslotter x1
  39. Enhancement Booster x2
  40. Enhancement Booster x2
  41. Enhancement Booster x2
  42. Enhancement Booster x2
  43. Enhancement Booster x2
  44. Enhancement Booster x2
  45. Revival x1
  46. Revival x1
  47. Revival x1
  48. Revival x1
  49. Revival x1
  50. Revival x1
  51. Revival x1
  52. Revival x1
  53. Restore x1
  54. Restore x1
  55. Restore x1
  56. Restore x1
  57. Restore x1
  58. Restore x1
  59. Restore x1
  60. Restore x1
  61. Experienced x1
  62. Experienced x1
  63. Experienced x1
  64. Experienced x1
  65. Experienced x1
  66. Prestige Booster x1
  67. Prestige Booster x1
  68. Prestige Booster x1
  69. Reward Merits x25
  70. Reward Merits x25
  71. Reward Merits x25
  72. Reward Merits x25
  73. Reward Merits x25
  74. Reward Merits x25
  75. Reward Merits x25
  76. Reward Merits x25
  77. Reward Merits x25
  78. Reward Merits x25
  79. Reward Merits x25
  80. Reward Merits x25
  81. Elemental Order Belt x1
  82. Elemental Order Belt x1
  83. Elemental Order Belt x1
  84. Elemental Order Belt x1
  85. Elemental Order Belt x1
  86. Elemental Order Belt x1
  87. Elemental Order Belt x1
  88. Elemental Order Belt x1
  89. Elemental Order Belt x1
  90. Elemental Order Belt x1
  91. Elemental Order Sleeves x1
  92. Elemental Order Sleeves x1
  93. Elemental Order Sleeves x1
  94. Elemental Order Sleeves x1
  95. Elemental Order Sleeves x1
  96. Elemental Order Sleeves x1
  97. Elemental Order Sleeves x1
  98. Elemental Order Sleeves x1
  99. Elemental Order Sleeves x1
  100. Elemental Order Sleeves x1
Now when you get both the sleeves and belt, the common table will look like this:
  1. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  2. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  3. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  4. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  5. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  6. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  7. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  8. One of 8 types of Medium Dual Inspirations.
  9. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  10. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  11. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  12. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  13. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  14. One of 6 types of Medium Team Inspirations.
  15. One of 4 types of Medium Team Dual Inspirations.
  16. One of 4 types of Medium Team Dual Inspirations.
  17. One of 4 types of Medium Team Dual Inspirations.
  18. One of 4 types of Medium Team Dual Inspirations.
  19. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  20. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  21. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  22. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  23. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  24. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  25. One of 7 types of Large Dual Inspirations.
  26. One of 5 types of Large Team Inspirations.
  27. One of 5 types of Large Team Inspirations.
  28. One of 5 types of Large Team Inspirations.
  29. One of 5 types of Large Team Inspirations.
  30. One of 5 types of Large Team Inspirations.
  31. One of 3 types of Large Team Dual Inspirations.
  32. One of 3 types of Large Team Dual Inspirations.
  33. One of 3 types of Large Team Dual Inspirations.
  34. Enhancement Unslotter x1
  35. Enhancement Unslotter x1
  36. Enhancement Unslotter x1
  37. Enhancement Unslotter x1
  38. Enhancement Unslotter x1
  39. Enhancement Booster x2
  40. Enhancement Booster x2
  41. Enhancement Booster x2
  42. Enhancement Booster x2
  43. Enhancement Booster x2
  44. Enhancement Booster x2
  45. Revival x1
  46. Revival x1
  47. Revival x1
  48. Revival x1
  49. Revival x1
  50. Revival x1
  51. Revival x1
  52. Revival x1
  53. Restore x1
  54. Restore x1
  55. Restore x1
  56. Restore x1
  57. Restore x1
  58. Restore x1
  59. Restore x1
  60. Restore x1
  61. Experienced x1
  62. Experienced x1
  63. Experienced x1
  64. Experienced x1
  65. Experienced x1
  66. Prestige Booster x1
  67. Prestige Booster x1
  68. Prestige Booster x1
  69. Reward Merits x25
  70. Reward Merits x25
  71. Reward Merits x25
  72. Reward Merits x25
  73. Reward Merits x25
  74. Reward Merits x25
  75. Reward Merits x25
  76. Reward Merits x25
  77. Reward Merits x25
  78. Reward Merits x25
  79. Reward Merits x25
  80. Reward Merits x25
  81. Removed
  82. Removed
  83. Removed
  84. Removed
  85. Removed
  86. Removed
  87. Removed
  88. Removed
  89. Removed
  90. Removed
  91. Removed
  92. Removed
  93. Removed
  94. Removed
  95. Removed
  96. Removed
  97. Removed
  98. Removed
  99. Removed
  100. Removed
Either way, when the card is common, the game rolls vs the table and then produces a result.

Satisfied now?



Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zwillinger View Post
We don't have plans offer a secondary option in the immediate future.

Sorry .
Boo. Hiss.

I really really really really do not like gambling. Please reconsider.

Still @Shadow Kitty

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Liz Bathory View Post
one uncommon / rare ina pack guaranteed. That is a 10% drop of the pack?
a very rare might be 25% chance its a vr instead of a rare.
Odds of getting a Very Rare card in a super pack: 79/100 (from here)

Quote:
the Black Wolf will never drop for less then 200 packs bought. And even then your extremely lucky.
Incorrect. On the first pack you open, you have a 79% chance of getting a Very Rare card, and a .3% chance it will be a Black wolf, or a .237% chance. Small, yes. But not impossible.

After multiple draws and the 3 Elemental order items are no longer in the mix (probably in about 20 draws or so), this chance rises: 79% chance of a Very Rare, and a .52% chance to pull a wolf (.3% chance out of 57.66%) which come out to .41% chance. Still small... but not 0.

It is more accurate to say the Black Wolf will drop approximately 50% of the time for 200 packs bought. As shown above, there is a 1.62 in 1000 that you will pull one on the first draw.

Quote:
It is the only pet my vampire witch main would ever want, and I am not spending close to 200-300 dollars on it .. ever!
If that is the only thing I wanted in the pack, as it appears is the case for you, then I agree there is no way I would even buy one. But I find value in all the contents of the packs, so that is moot.

Quote:
Cant you make the wolf pet a reward for a huge tf or trial? I fight off all Arch heroes and more one by one to get it
Maybe they will, 6 months down the road. who knows. Unfortunately, for now, this is the only way to get this pet.

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Master0fCeremony View Post
Any pics around?
http://union.virtueverse.net/wiki/Elizabeth_Bathory

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ardrea View Post
I can understand the concerns you have, but 'never' is too strong a word to use -- I opened a few and got the wolf pet on my third one. Some people will be lucky; possibly even you. Some people will be unlucky, and that's why a deterministic route should be made available.
The problem is.. how long do you stay trying if its not dropping fast? I would instantly stop buying the moment the wolf drops.

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Average - A new race of aliens arrives on Earth. And Vanguard has you investigate them!
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Posted

Purely for my own benefit, I did some sums (which I won't post, as I rather suspect that they're a bit suspect, and I'd really like one of the local math wizes to do them properly), and I believe that, for those items I could find an equivalent cost in Paragon Points, buying a 24-pack for 1440 points, on average, results in approximately 5600 Paragon Points worth of Stuff. Alternatively, when it goes live, investing 1 reward token on a 5-pack gives you approximately 1.29 reward token-equivalents of Stuff.

Enhancement Boosters, Unslotters, Inspirations (I counted the Medium as 33/50 the value of a Large, and the Restore/Revive as half a Medium), Windfall , XP and Prestige Boosters, and the ATOs at 80pp each, presuming that they're similar in value to the other 6-piece sets on the market.

I didn't count the Reward Merits or the Enhancement Catalyst, as I couldn't find a straight forward points equivalent for them, nor for the Reward Merits.

As far as I can tell, if you're willing to invest Paragon Points or Paragon Reward Tokens on consumables, you get a better deal (in terms of Stuff/dollar) by investing in Super Packs. I'm not sure how the distribution of consumables you get from Super Packs compares to how they're consumed, though.

I do know that if the pattern in the Tier 9 rewards continues (3 Reward Tokens for a complete costume set), after getting everything that's currently available, and keeping 3 tokens in reserve for the next costume set, I'm going to dump any extra into Signature Summons and Super Packs.

Given the pace at which stuff is added to the Paragon Market, and with a stipend of 400/550 points/month I doubt I'll run into the problem of having points left over with nothing to spend them on, but if I did, Super Packs seem to be the most cost-effective way of buying consumables.

@Nitram_Tadur

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by thedarkeone View Post
Klaw, I opened about 20 of these this morning and had something like 16-20 xp boosts, 12 or so windfalls, several ATIO's that I actually wanted, and all the costume parts. Not to mention, about 1200 merits.

I know these things caused quite a bit of controversy in beta, but I bought them then and I will buy them now. I like the randomness; I play this game to get away from the absolutes of reality. When I have spare points I will buy them, when I dont I wont. Dont know why that causes all the rage posts.
If I buy 5 packs there is a good chance I will not get any XP boosts at all (and will need to pay more money to get them). As a regular purchaser of specific items I do not find these very attractive.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Martin_Rudat View Post
As far as I can tell, if you're willing to invest Paragon Points or Paragon Reward Tokens on consumables, you get a better deal (in terms of Stuff/dollar) by investing in Super Packs. I'm not sure how the distribution of consumables you get from Super Packs compares to how they're consumed, though.
That's a pretty big "if", though, especially when you consider that the team has already admitted the reason the packs are being sold this way is because people weren't interested in buying the consumables in the first place.

 

Posted

I've been....elsewhere for the most part since December 13th, so I had a crapload of Paragon Points waiting for me when I logged in yesterday to try these out. Bought a 24 pack.

Wound up with:

The whole Elemental Order set;
About 900 merits;
Various ATOs;
Some catalysts; boosters; other misc. stuff.

Not bad. The only thing that's sorta Pay to Win is the merits. I'm as big a Paragon studios fanboy as much as the next guy, but buying loot is pay to win, even if you can earn them elsewhere. I just don't mind.

The City of Heroes Community is a special one and I will always look fondly on my times arguing, discussing and playing with you all. Thanks and thanks to the developers for a special experience.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snow Globe View Post
Here is a Google Spreadsheet with the packs with and without the account unlocks:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AsjJWPcObbMwdFE5aktoZGJtU3FNZ0RtVHJyQmZ1Z nc (friendly link)
For those interested, I've updated this spreadsheet with extra columns showing what would happen to the tables if you got a single account item. Not every possibility is accounted for (like getting the wolf pet before another very rare costume piece), but should be "good enough" considering the weighting.



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Posted

I'm glad the Dark Wolf pet is SO rare...I have enough worthless do nothing pets on my tray when I respec. I pray that I NEVER get it. You can have my Redcap/MekMan/Rikti Monkey/Clockwork/Demon and my Mini HVAS too. Then again I'm not one to stand around in Atlas Park admiring how much worthless crap I have like some do.

How about a TF?

Or a Help Channel DFB...LOL

Cheers

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Posted

Cancelled subscription as of now.

THis has to be the most money grubby greedy piece of junk they have ever done.

It is pay to win, like it or not its pay to win.

This is what happens when a game goes free to play.

Free to play ALWAYS means more expensive, this is why I never touch free games.

I was hoping for better with this one and till now it hasnt been too bad, but this is just greedy beyond belief.

Boycott Ncsoft if they close down Coh.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by EvilGeko View Post
buying loot is pay to win, even if you can earn them elsewhere
That's not how most people define pay-to-win.

I honestly don't even spend the merits I earn in-game, but I guess I'm going to start, since buying superpacks means they otherwise pile up like cordwood.

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
That's not how most people define pay-to-win.

I honestly don't even spend the merits I earn in-game, but I guess I'm going to start, since buying superpacks means they otherwise pile up like cordwood.
I'm not sure there is a generally accepted definition. Personally, I believe anything that lets you create a well-geared character without playing the game is Pay to Win. In games where PvP is the principle activity, a more narrow definition of "win" might hold sway. But in CoH....lol PvP.

The City of Heroes Community is a special one and I will always look fondly on my times arguing, discussing and playing with you all. Thanks and thanks to the developers for a special experience.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shubbie View Post
Free to play ALWAYS means more expensive, this is why I never touch free games.
The game needs to generate revenue in order for the studio to continue to develop it, so it makes sense that they will move to a model that improves their cash flow. I'm more than willing to pay because this is a quality product, I just want to be able to buy those things I specifically want and not play silly games with random item packs and the like.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shubbie View Post
Cancelled subscription as of now.

This has to be the most money grubby greedy piece of junk they have ever done.

It is pay to win, like it or not its pay to win.

This is what happens when a game goes free to play.

Free to play ALWAYS means more expensive, this is why I never touch free games.

I was hoping for better with this one and till now it hasn't been too bad, but this is just greedy beyond belief.
I'm still only paying $15.00 a month, that price hasn't changed in seven years. Once you realize that, you'll be back.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Warning: crazy space limit reached. Please delete some crazy and try again.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by John_Printemps View Post
I'm still only paying $15.00 a month, that price hasn't changed in seven years. Once you realize that, you'll be back.
With inflation, you could even say the price has really gone down.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by EvilGeko View Post
I'm not sure there is a generally accepted definition. Personally, I believe anything that lets you create a well-geared character without playing the game is Pay to Win. In games where PvP is the principle activity, a more narrow definition of "win" might hold sway. But in CoH....lol PvP.
The phrase "well-geared" seems to be a problematic definition in this game. Its so easy to make a reasonably well-slotted character that the hurdle is extremely low. Selling anything remotely related to inventions could be construed as paying to win, because you don't even really need the thing you're theoretically buying. I don't think its fair to allow buying things that are otherwise trivial to get as counting as paying to win, because if it doesn't take real effort to earn its too weak of a definition of "win" to be meaningful.

I think you should at least make the hurdle something that otherwise takes significant effort to gain in-game, and that makes drawing the line tricky. You can't buy purples with merits. You can't buy PvPIOs with normal merits.

Another soft part of the definition has to do with what counts as "playing the game." If that's actually running around doing content, then the inventions you can get through merit purchases can also be gotten through marketeering relatively easily (you can also get purples and PvPIOs through marketeering, albeit with significantly more effort in some of those cases). Is it "playing the game" if I'm just logging in a couple times a week and trading the markets, but not playing the game if I buy and open superpacks and then spend my merits at the merit vendor? Depending on whether you allow the game to open them automatically or not, it can actually take *more time* to open super packs than to marketeer your way to an equivalent amount of currency. That makes that distinction very grey to me. Both activities are meta-games within the game. Is one preeminent over the other?

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Posted

Is there going to be a way in the future to acquire Enhancement Catalysts other than the super packs or running incarnate content?

And if anyone knows, what's the drop rate of these things looking like in incarnate content?