Researchers Develop Tool To Predict Player Behavior
By
Arcanaville,
Posted on: 2011-06-16 12:59 in Comic and Hero-Villain Culture
Whatever helps.
How many if any of the 14,000 people they collected data on were chinese prisoners forced to be gold farmers?
If the people they gathered data from were randomly chosen then their data would be skewed by the fact that a certain percentage of their group doesn't react the way legitimate players would.
Quote:
Zackly. If CoH did this, the Devs would just be adding in farms with every issue.|
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
How many if any of the 14,000 people they collected data on were chinese prisoners forced to be gold farmers?
If the people they gathered data from were randomly chosen then their data would be skewed by the fact that a certain percentage of their group doesn't react the way legitimate players would. |
Issue 22: Farmville
Issue 23: Farmtown
Issue 24: Farmopolis
Issue 25: We're out of Farm jokes
The Alt Alphabet ~ OPC: Other People's Characters ~ Terrific Screenshots of Cool ~ Superhero Fiction
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Ironik
Zackly. If CoH did this, the Devs would just be adding in farms with every issue.
Issue 22: Farmville Issue 23: Farmtown Issue 24: Farmopolis Issue 25: We're out of Farm jokes |
Issue 26: Harvest time!
Issue 27: Up with the cows
Issue 28: Someone shut up the rooster
edit: In relation to the OP, the idea is intriguing in terms of supplemental design input. I am not sure how the result would apply cross game... unless you had to recollect info for a particular game you would want to model. And then again... you need a platform or structure to test first... so it is, to my mind, not directly useful at present.
City of Heroes was my first MMO, & my favorite computer game.
R.I.P.
Chyll - Bydand - Violynce - Enyrgos - Rylle - Nephryte - Solyd - Fettyr - Hyposhock - Styrling - Beryllos - Rosyc
Horryd - Myriam - Dysquiet - Ghyr
Vanysh - Eldrytch
Inflyct - Mysron - Orphyn - Dysmay - Reapyr - - Wyldeman - Hydeous
Issue 29: Old Macdonald
Issue 30: What are you people still doing here?
Be well, people of CoH.
I don't like being told what to like.
Really, this just says to me that a certain big-name MMORPG in fact offers its players comparatively few options. In any case, the mechanics are far less impressive than the claims:
Quote:
I'd prefer to see some truly counter-intuitive correlations - and the numbers and methodology to back them up.|
Specifically, the researchers collected data on 14,000 players and the order in which they earned their achievement badges. The researchers then identified the degree to which each individual achievement was correlated to every other achievement. The researchers used that data to identify groups of achievements called cliques that were closely related. Those cliques could then be used to predict future behavior. For example, if a clique consists of seven achievements, and a player has earned four of them, the researchers found that they will probably earn the other three. However, many of the cliques that the researchers identified consist of 80 or more different achievements. One interesting element of these findings is that the achievements that are highly correlated or part of the same clique do not necessarily have any obvious connection. For example, an achievement dealing with a characters prowess in unarmed combat is highly correlated to the achievement badge associated with world travel even though there is no clear link between the two badges to the outside observer. |
Incidentally, Valve has been harvesting far more sophisticated data on their FPSs to factor into their design for a while now (and they're experimenting with even more esoteric metrics).
There also seems to be the assumption that players do certain things for fun. Not because they may need do something to allow them to engage in what they think is fun for a short time before going back to the tedious work stuff to allow fun again.
But it's MY sadistic mechanical monster and I'm here to make sure it knows it. - Girl Genius
List of Invention Guides
I'm sure there is a certain subset of the playerbase that apparently loves to do everything, judging by the number of achievement badges they have.
Eva Destruction AR/Fire/Munitions Blaster
Darkfire Avenger DM/SD/Body Scrapper
Arc ID#161629 Freaks, Geeks, and Men in Black
Arc ID#431270 Until the End of the World
Quote:
No, that's the whole point of getting as random a sample as possible. Every game has farmers and they pay the bills just like everyone else. I would think that 'regular farmers' (i.e. those that do it of their own free will) greatly outnumber the 'forced farmers'. And, by "free will" . . . the person who complains that they 'have to' farm in order to get the stuff they 'need' and how they hate farming . . . well, they're still choosing to do it and they represent a valid sector of the playerbase.|
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
How many if any of the 14,000 people they collected data on were chinese prisoners forced to be gold farmers?
If the people they gathered data from were randomly chosen then their data would be skewed by the fact that a certain percentage of their group doesn't react the way legitimate players would. |
The same applies to 'MMO addicts' who wreck their lives. Every game has some. The goal here is not to characterize 'valid' or 'appropriate' play styles. The goal is to analyze the playerbase AS IT EXISTS without applying value judgements about how people play. It's not a psychological study. It's a business study to help the MMO designers rake in more money.
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
Quote:
The strategy seems obvious. Its how I would do it. Its how I actually do it, in related areas. But the specific conclusions of the paper in detail may not be quite so obvious. Its not immediately obvious to me, for example, how behavior attractors can interlock 80 different achievements unless they were all trivially related. And its not immediately obvious how the existence of those attractors could predict future behavior more than 80% of the time, which is a very strong correlation. It implies player behavior doesn't follow a continuum of behavior, but rather tends to fall into specific pigeonholes.|
Originally Posted by TrueGentleman
I'd prefer to see some truly counter-intuitive correlations - and the numbers and methodology to back them up.
|
One way to rephrase the statements in the article would be to state this: in terms of the activities you perform, 80% of all World of Warcraft players are either *exactly* like you, or *nothing* like you (motive is a completely separate and unmeasurable thing). That's not an intuitive statement to make.
[Guide to Defense] [Scrapper Secondaries Comparison] [Archetype Popularity Analysis]
In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
(Please support the best webcomic about a cosmic universal realignment by impaired angelic interference resulting in identity crisis angst. Or I release the pigmy water thieves.)
Tool to predict player behavior? I imagine the majority of player behavior in an MMO boils down to this;
Player finds quickest way to get from Point A to Point B
Player exploits said way
Devs nerf the method
Player gripes, cries, and threatens to quit..
Player finds the next quickest way from Point A to Point B.
Player gets to goal, cries there is nothing to do.
Player either quits, cries for moar content, or rolls an alt.. Rinse repeat.
The problem with using Achievements for evidence is that players will often do things that they don't necessarily "enjoy" in and of themselves...just because there IS an Achievement for it. I didn't hang around the Shadow Shard for ages hunting Overseers because I love poking things in the eye; I did it to unlock the nifty weapons. All this research is really telling us is that people like Achievements.
99458: The Unbearable Being of Lightness
191775: How the Other Half Lives
My Webcomics
Researchers develop the game tester? I thought that was already invented and a job position some of us would love to have.
I hate when newspapers or comparable media quote mention supposedly scientific studies without disclosing details, making the "scientific" part de facto worthless, because it could aswell be done by rubbing matchsticks together over the skull of a guinea pig and shouting "KAZA KALOOM!".
Oh, and "scientists" doesn't make "science". Case in point people who do studies with a minimal amount of people and with extreme sample bias and call it representative (most studies regarding various supposed harm effects from various sexual activities).
Generally I think newspapers should be completely outlawed and replaced by scientific papers.
Oh, I don't mean to imply this is the case here btw, I jsut got carried off. I'd be very interested in the details nonetheless.
Quote:
There are two types of scientists, actual scientists and phony scientists. The only true scientists are the ones that work in the pursuit of improving human's understanding of the universe.|
Originally Posted by Sumpfkraut
I hate when newspapers or comparable media quote mention supposedly scientific studies without disclosing details, making the "scientific" part de facto worthless, because it could aswell be done by rubbing matchsticks together over the skull of a guinea pig and shouting "KAZA KALOOM!".
Oh, and "scientists" doesn't make "science". Case in point people who do studies with a minimal amount of people and with extreme sample bias and call it representative (most studies regarding various supposed harm effects from various sexual activities). Generally I think newspapers should be completely outlawed and replaced by scientific papers. Oh, I don't mean to imply this is the case here btw, I jsut got carried off. I'd be very interested in the details nonetheless. |
I find any person trying to understand such a chaotic system like human behaviour to be misguided. People don't react in a predictable manner.
The first step in being sane is to admit that you are insane.
Well the brain has certain ways it works. And personally I do think understanding the brain's working does do more good to cosmology than understanding how supernovas are formed, though apparently in this case they didn't even try to understand how things happen and instead just gathered data on what things happen when so they can be exploited economically, which I guess makes for inferior science. I'm not all that passionate about science used for economics though.
Quote:
| One interesting element of these findings is that the achievements that are highly correlated or part of the same clique do not necessarily have any obvious connection. For example, an achievement dealing with a characters prowess in unarmed combat is highly correlated to the achievement badge associated with world travel even though there is no clear link between the two badges to the outside observer. |
Really? researchers assigned to study trends in gamer habits fail to find a correlation between unarmed combat and world travel. Really? Can researchers truly be dense enough to not look at popular external inspirations when analyzing behavior?
I bet everyone here can think up a correlation for unarmed combat and world travel within 10 minutes of thinking about it.
Slashdot summary: