Why Flippers Ruin the Economy!
By
Adeon Hawkwood,
Posted on: 2010-10-11 24:35 in The Market and Inventions
I've done it as a way to get sales badges quick, but I didn't bother documenting the process.
Interesting stuff!
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That's awesome.
(Edit to add) And it reaffirms my confidence in my general policy of listing all my white salvage at 1 inf and then just buying what I need when I want to craft something. I haven't tracked it but my impression is that I am making an enormous profit over what I'd be getting from vendoring, with about the same mental effort as vendoring. This experiment suggests that I'm probably right.
@Quasadu
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I usually stockpile commons on the market, and put them for sale as I get 10 of them...and I list them very cheap to try and keep a constant flow of cheap stock on the market.
Don't I know you???
Common salvage really doesnt show real signfiicance for the type of experiment you were trying to do. You need to get into a more sought after and higher priced item (IO's escpecially) to really see what you originally expected.
Set up something with a much more significantly priced item and see what happens. I bet the results are radically different.
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I suspect part of the point is that the screaming about manipulation is often about common salvage.
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Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
Common salvage really doesnt show real signfiicance for the type of experiment you were trying to do. You need to get into a more sought after and higher priced item (IO's escpecially) to really see what you originally expected.
Set up something with a much more significantly priced item and see what happens. I bet the results are radically different. |
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I suspect that the screaming about common salvage prices is that vendors only pay 250 for it, so it's only "worth" 250. If anyone charges more than 250 then they are stealing.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
I suspect part of the point is that the screaming about manipulation is often about common salvage.
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This mindset ignores the fact that all common salvage is not at the same level of demand and the same level of supply. There seems to be a large contingent of players who still run only Freakshow radio missions, which means that arcane salvage is always in shorter supply, and certain items (Luck Charm, Alchemical Silver, etc.) tend to be in higher demand because certain higher demand IOs (accuracy) use them.
Items are only worth what people are willing to pay for them. And some people have so much inf they would rather pay 10 times what something is "worth" to get it now.
Fretting about this fact of life is a waste of time. Your options are simple: you pay the going rate, you bid low and wait, you go run missions at +0/x2 or +0/x3 against enemies that drop the salvage you want, or you use AE tickets.
If people charge too much for common salvage you don't have to buy it. It's trivial to get in large quantities in just a few minutes of playing time, if you really object to paying an extra 10,000 to get a piece of junk that's only "worth" 250.
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I'm the type of player who:|
Originally Posted by Rodion
I suspect that the screaming about common salvage prices is that vendors only pay 250 for it, so it's only "worth" 250. If anyone charges more than 250 then they are stealing.
If people charge too much for common salvage you don't have to buy it. It's trivial to get in large quantities in just a few minutes of playing time, if you really object to paying an extra 10,000 to get a piece of junk that's only "worth" 250. |
1) has multiple fully purpled IO builds on all the alts I care about for that.
2) has always "dumped" any excess common salvage I had on the markets for 1 INF and NEVER vendored any of it.
3) currently has billions of unused INF scattered around on various characters.
Basically what I'm saying is that I (for one) couldn't care less that the vendors pay 250 INF for salvage. It has never bothered me once that I have ever "lost" INF dumping stuff on the market as opposed to selling to the vendors and it has never bothered me once that I've ever had to pay 10,000+ INF for "junk" crafting supplies that are technically only worth 250 INF. People who actually worry about "losing" or "making" money with vending common salvage are micro-managing things that are simply not that important in the greater scheme of things. *shrugs*
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qft cause it has to be said again
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Originally Posted by Lothic
I'm the type of player who:
1) has multiple fully purpled IO builds on all the alts I care about for that. 2) has always "dumped" any excess common salvage I had on the markets for 1 INF and NEVER vendored any of it. 3) currently has billions of unused INF scattered around on various characters. Basically what I'm saying is that I (for one) couldn't care less that the vendors pay 250 INF for salvage. It has never bothered me once that I have ever "lost" INF dumping stuff on the market as opposed to selling to the vendors and it has never bothered me once that I've ever had to pay 10,000+ INF for "junk" crafting supplies that are technically only worth 250 INF. People who actually worry about "losing" or "making" money with vending common salvage are micro-managing things that are simply not that important in the greater scheme of things. *shrugs* |
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Interesting experiment. Just curious on this though:
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You aren't buying the ones that are expensive.... you're buying the cheapest ones aren't you? |
Originally Posted by Misaligned
Buying up the ones that are expensive and selling them for next to nothing prices to anyone who wanted one.
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However, you are giving the people listing low more than they wanted for them, although it's probably going to another marketeer who just lists at 1 inf.
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Technically, yes. I was purchasing the cheapest 190 every time I placed orders. There is no way to pay for the most expensive ones. However, I was willing to pay 1k for for them and then listed them for 100. So technically, the only ones that I was "making good" on were the ones listed under 100 inf.|
Originally Posted by Diggis
Interesting experiment. Just curious on this though:
You aren't buying the ones that are expensive.... you're buying the cheapest ones aren't you? |
Quote:
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However, you are giving the people listing low more than they wanted for them, although it's probably going to another marketeer who just lists at 1 inf.
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Just a bit of frustration there. Nothing directed at you Diggis
I am curious as to where all of the "flippers are evil" crowd is on this. Currently, the people who complain the most about how flippers are ruining the game for casual players haven't bothered to chime in on this. I was doing the exact opposite of what a flipper would do and got the same results.
Anyone else find that odd?
Anyone else find it interesting that I seemed to have absolutely no effect on this particular salvage even though I expect I was handling a majority percentage of it in one way or another for a week?
Where are the doom sayers on this?
I'm not sure you WERE handling a majority of the salvage. I know it was a long time ago, but there were 500 luck charms a weekday going through Wents back when you had to TRY to get LC's. I'd be surprised if there were less than 1000 Thorns a day going through Wents right now. (my guess would be 2000 thorns per day, but I could easily be off by a LOT.)
Of course, you may have done 180 at a time, 5 times a day, in which case I retract my statement.
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I handled over 1400 transactions a day (700 bought 700 sold on average). I generally had at least 1 for sale at 100 inf for about 20 hours a day by checking this guy sort of regularly. (I gotta sleep people!)
I know a lot more salvage moves in a day than people want to believe, but I assert that on something like spirit thorns, I handled the majority of them in a day (51% is a majority). It is entirely possible that during the day 800 were dumped on the market for 1 inf while I was only selling and undercut my 100, but its not likely 
I think if there were that many coming in to the market every day we'd see much higher levels than the 650 average for sale (my 2 inf)
On something like Luck Charms - I do believe you would have to live at WW to constantly move salvage back and forth between bidding and selling to have the same majority contact. This is one of the reasons why I chose a "dud" like Spirit Thorns. They move - but not nearly a frantically as some of the more popular salvage out there.
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in the same foxhole as the "OMG NOBODY CAN POSSIBLY AFFORD ALL THESE INSANELY OVERPRICED IOs crew after someone posts screenshots of listing stuff for a million and selling it for 20.|
Originally Posted by Misaligned
I am curious as to where all of the "flippers are evil" crowd is on this.
|
=P
And co-sign Fulmens on stock levels- there is a TREMENDOUS amount of common salvage flooding through the market at any given time. It's mostly invisible, but if you sit and stare at something long enough (like, say, NMI) you see piles show up, then suddenly bids will jump from a handful to a few hundred, and a few minutes later it's roughly back where it started. But in that brief span a substantial pile of merchandise changed hands.
I'd be interested to see if we can track how much of some common but relatively useful salvage actually sells over the course of an hour or so- anyone have an idea about what methodology we could use?
Just throw up a massive pile of overpaying bids and see what happens?
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Not really. When I bid, I bid creep (even on cheap stuff) as a matter of principle. I simply hate having to pay more than I have to. It doesn't bother me if I have to pay 50k for spell scroll or whatever if that is the lowest price I can get it at.|
Originally Posted by Misaligned
I was doing the exact opposite of what a flipper would do and got the same results.
Anyone else find that odd? |
But most people who are willing to pay have no qualm at paying 5k or 10k no matter what the actual cost could be. They don't bother bidding lower because they feel they can count on winning the bid and being done with it. On things like spirit thorns, I can routinely bid well below the last 5 and get them plenty cheap.
As another poster pointed out, you should try this experiment with something that is in real demand like Spell Scroll or Ink or demonic blood sample. Those are both in demand items that actually are harder to acquire and often fall outside the 10k per piece range. It might be intresting to see if you still made inf.
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The exact same thing would happen.|
Originally Posted by DevilYouKnow
As another poster pointed out, you should try this experiment with something that is in real demand like Spell Scroll or Ink or demonic blood sample. Those are both in demand items that actually are harder to acquire and often fall outside the 10k per piece range. It might be intresting to see if you still made inf.
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Players are conditioned to pay the 'going rate' for high demand stuff much more so than 'junk'.
If anything, you'd make *more* inf on the high demand stuff provided your buy point wasn't too outrageous.
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You've finally given me a reason to miss WoW's "can't buy your own auctions" feature.
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I sat here divining a method for this - and it occurs to me that you can't. You throw up bids for 1 mil on something and buy it all out, someone, somewhere is going to put up a bid for 1.1 mil. Did they buy 1 or 10 or 8 or 3?|
Originally Posted by Nethergoat
in the same foxhole as the "OMG NOBODY CAN POSSIBLY AFFORD ALL THESE INSANELY OVERPRICED IOs crew after someone posts screenshots of listing stuff for a million and selling it for 20.
=P And co-sign Fulmens on stock levels- there is a TREMENDOUS amount of common salvage flooding through the market at any given time. It's mostly invisible, but if you sit and stare at something long enough (like, say, NMI) you see piles show up, then suddenly bids will jump from a handful to a few hundred, and a few minutes later it's roughly back where it started. But in that brief span a substantial pile of merchandise changed hands. I'd be interested to see if we can track how much of some common but relatively useful salvage actually sells over the course of an hour or so- anyone have an idea about what methodology we could use? Just throw up a massive pile of overpaying bids and see what happens? |
You just can't know for sure.
Unless you went the other route...
Keep a constant supply of sales up for 1 inf....
Nope. Same scenario - I come along and dump mine for 1 inf while you're selling... how many did I dump? Was it 2 or 8 or 10 or 1 or 4?
No way of knowing "for sure" how many move through in an hour.
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You can't - I've tried |
Originally Posted by seebs
You've finally given me a reason to miss WoW's "can't buy your own auctions" feature.
|
You can... from a second account - but that's not the same thing.
I don't know that I've bought spirit thorns more than once in the last three months. But.
I've been levelling lowbies, so I'll end up with a stack of 17-19 recipes or something like. And what I do is, figure out what salvage I need, then flip through it bidding on everything. And on the low-demand commons, I just bid 1234 on everything, pretty much. If I get it, I'm happy. I don't care whether the going rate is 10 or 1000; 1234 is too small a number to notice.
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You think so? If I don't have to buy thousands of pieces I might try this with a few pieces. I don't want to invest a ton of time into it, but it might be interesting to try with say 100 at a time over a couple of weeks and see if there is a net gain.|
Originally Posted by Nethergoat
The exact same thing would happen.
Players are conditioned to pay the 'going rate' for high demand stuff much more so than 'junk'. If anything, you'd make *more* inf on the high demand stuff provided your buy point wasn't too outrageous. |
Something like Buy at 60K and sell for 20K maybe?
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You can't buy from your own account, you'd need more than one to buy from 'yourself'.|
Originally Posted by seebs
You've finally given me a reason to miss WoW's "can't buy your own auctions" feature.
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Which you can use to your advantage when 'live' flipping high volume stuff. =D
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
Quote:
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Originally Posted by seebs
You've finally given me a reason to miss WoW's "can't buy your own auctions" feature.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Misaligned
You can't - I've tried
You can... from a second account - but that's not the same thing. |
Since when was a second account required to buy your own auctions? A second character yes, but a second account? Isn't this how infl was often transfered between characters before email attachments?
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Ya know, I have done those kinds of "server transfers" in the past but I can't recall from memory if I ever did one with two characters on the same account, or if it's always been from one account to the other. My guess is that you can (or at least, could) but I can't swear to it.
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Originally Posted by StarGeek
Huh?
Since when was a second account required to buy your own auctions? A second character yes, but a second account? Isn't this how infl was often transfered between characters before email attachments? |
@Quasadu
"We must prepare for DOOM and hope for FREEM." - SirFrederick
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By "too outrageous" you mean "somewhat below the typical market rate", right?|
Originally Posted by Nethergoat
The exact same thing would happen.
Players are conditioned to pay the 'going rate' for high demand stuff much more so than 'junk'. If anything, you'd make *more* inf on the high demand stuff provided your buy point wasn't too outrageous. |
I'll use LotG +Recharge at 50 - it typically goes (recently) for 150 million.
If I bought at 135, and sold at 100, Nethergoat, you're proposing I would make money? (Over enough time - not on any one sale.)
...yeah, I'm moderately willing to accept that. It'd take a while, though, to find 'em available at 135. And you'd have to be able to shrug off the occasional loss when one of yours sells for 120 or something.
I'm not sure about "more" money, though. The higher-priced stuff seems to bounce around a tighter "window" - from 80% to 120% of "average value", instead of anywhere from 1% to 1000%.
Experiment:
Find a common salvage that has 0 bids.
Purchase that salvage in bulk and then re-list it.
Do this process for a week or more.
I was curious about something. I wanted to see what effect I would have by jumping in and "flipping" a salvage that was clearly not being flipped.
Expectations:
Things that were tracked:
Salvage used:
Purchasing "rules" used:
I began this experiment with 10 million inf and 132 black market sales (picked a non-marketeering toon for this). It is now about a week later and he has the following:
3,824 sales
14,851,866 inf
Net gains:
3,692 transactions
4,851,866 inf
Average profit per transaction:
1,314 inf
Big deal you say! You made 4 mil in a week you say! That's not impressive at all you say! You only made about 1,300 per salvage you say!
With the exception of 180 Spirit Thorn that I purchased for 10k each (woops - marketeering when tired is bad m'kay?) I paid and listed for the following:
Purchase price:
1,000
Listing Price:
100
Go back. Read those again. They are correct.
The original intention of this experiment was to see what would happen if I started "anti-flipping" - buying high and selling low as it were - and what effect it would have on that piece of salvage. Being the Robin Hood of Spirit Thorns! Buying up the ones that are expensive and selling them for next to nothing prices to anyone who wanted one.
To date - the supply is still constant. It moves a bit between 550 for sale and 700 for sale. I haven't impacted that at all. There was a high of about 950 for sale Saturday night. But that was gobbled up fairly quickly and now we're back to the 650 or so for sale.
I haven't impacted the price at all. It hasn't gone up or down. I can still buy high and sell low at will. If you don't believe me, you are welcome to anti-flip a 10 stack of your own.
I am 99% sure I was not being flipped. the most bids I ever saw sitting on this item were 11 at one point. By the time I had bids up on my 180, those were gone. If I was being flipped, someone was doing a very poor job of it.
Essentially, to all of the people who say that the flippers are marketeers are ruining the economy and driving up prices through our methods, please explain to me how I can do the exact opposite of what you are saying we do, and still make inf on the deal? Explain to me why I was getting more than 2x what I was buying for, across 3k transactions.
Take from this what you will. But I found this whole process rather interesting.
If its not new, or has been done before, oh well! I had a nice learning experience!