Why Flippers Ruin the Economy!

Oh, interesting! So I can have simultaneous bids and sales on the same character, but any OTHER character of mine could inadvertantly bid/buy those.

Cool to know, I guess.

Yup. When we were running the Luck Charmers, we were freezing flippers out of the market and we had to set our sell/buy points really carefully. We still ended up selling a couple hundred charms to each other a couple of times. ("Today we're selling at 53,000 and buying at 51,500." We made money.)

If you really want to raise the price, buy up all the stock and keep 100. Sell the rest at the quartermaster. Then sell the 100 for 200k, 500k, etc. Keep lowball bids to snipe other people's low sell prices, ie, those who are dumping for 1 inf.
Soon, other sellers will follow suit and price their salvage to match yours.
100 @ 200k = 20 mil, 100 @ 500k = 50 mil
I don't do this btw, but I know other people who do.

Raising the price is relatively trivial if the demand is there. We were trying to LOWER the price. We were leaving no room for profit between our buy point and our sell point, and then every week or so we were lowering the buy and sell point.

The Luck Charmers is one of those "How could it have gone so wrong?" stories. We started out just wanting to get the number of bids on Luck Charms to zero and take a screenshot. We ended up controlling almost the entire flow of LC's through the market. I was spending two hours a day on it, and I don't know how much time the other members of the cabal were spending. We ended up pulling the trigger too early and didn't make it.

There's some sort of lesson about anarchist desires and authoritarian results there. But we all learned a lot.

EDIT: Raising the price is relatively trivial in the short term. If you want to see the long-term effects, go buy something with 9000 for sale- Spirit Thorns or Regenerating Flesh or Silver. Last time I tried this, I found a couple thousand at low prices, then the last 4000 were at prices like 100K, 500K and so forth. I think of those as a fossil record of people who tried what you're recommending and ran out of money, time or slots.

Hey, it was fun. I think I logged onto characters and sold LC's for two or two and a half hours straight.

Sorry, but this just isn't a logical conclusion.

1) You have no idea what the price would be without you influencing it. You are just assuming it would be a certain price and then claiming you did not influence it because it is the price you assumed it would be. Without you doing your anti-flipping, the price might have gone up, it might have gone down, or it might have stayed the same.

2) You are just one person, doing this on one toon, over a very short period of time. This makes your argument sound like "I smoked a cigarette a couple times and I didn't get cancer, therefore cigarettes don't cause cancer."

3) Just because "anti-flipping" doesn't affect the economy, doesn't mean that flipping doesn't either.

To really test whether anti-flipping affects the economy, you would need lots of people to get together and do this over a long period of time, with many different items, and at many different prices. You would also need to be tracking the price changes in items that aren't being anti-flipped so that you would have a control group.

Also, might I add: SCIENCE!

@TheHallows

Frankly, I have no way of ever accommodating your request. As per my experience, no matter what controls or samples I used or how many people were involved you (or someone like you) would argue the exact same thing.

The fact is (and this is fact, documented here on these forums for you to paruse) that people are regularly coming here blaming flippers for the following:

a) Manipulating prices
b) Putting things for sale beyond the reach of the casual player
c) Asserting that if flippers left things alone that prices would drop
d) Asserting (oddly enough) that all of the multitudes of data collected on this very subject and its impact on the specific item don't actually warrant any merit for all of the reasons you claim.

This was not a "perfect" experiment.
I had no pre-drawn conclusions when I started this venture.
I did 1 item for a week with no one else's knowledge so they would not tamper with the actual results.

The facts as laid out in the very first post are indeed facts. I did handle a major share of Spirit Thorns for 7 days. I did buy them for 1,000 (except for 180 I purchased at 10,000). I did sell them for 100 each.

Any conclusions drawn are on the part of the reader. The closest I come to drawing a conclusion was to observe that days later the price was still what it was prior to my "meddling" and supply was still in the same range. The only "conclusion" I make in the OP was to observe that nothing changed.

I did however ask the anti-flipper folks to explain to me how I could have in fact had seemingly 0 impact when they make it fairly clear that someone goofing off with a specific salvage for less than an hour has an impact that lasts (if not indefinitely) at least a few days.

You sir, I recognize as one of the few who are only going to believe what you choose to. This is your right, but please do not come here to this thread and poo-poo on methods and conclusions that aren't there, were never expected, and will never meet your exacting standards if you in fact are unwilling to do anything to disprove the things you say are flawed.

You are welcome to repeat this "experiment" in any way shape or form you like. I encourage you to document it, set up controls, and provide what you will consider as an acceptable amount of data.

Please post your data here. Also, post methods and findings. However, don't feel bad when someone comes here and explains that you didn't use methods "sciencey" enough for them

Also, don't be surprised when someone uses your hard work to prove a point entirely contrary to what you observed.

I never made a request. I said that your conclusion was erroneous. That isn't a reason to bring me into any argument you happen to be having with anyone else.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Misaligned You sir, I recognize as one of the few who are only going to believe what you choose to.

This is an odd thing to say when I made it clear that I require good data before I will form a conclusion. Instead of bringing me into your argument, why don't you demand some good data from your opponents?

Also, please don't call me sir. If I happen to grow boy parts in the night and you are made aware of it before I am, then I hope you will find a nicer way to let me know.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Misaligned Please post your data here. Also, post methods and findings. However, don't feel bad when someone comes here and explains that you didn't use methods "sciencey" enough for them Also, don't be surprised when someone uses your hard work to prove a point entirely contrary to what you observed.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least. That is science, and quite frankly I think it's one of the best things about science. If I made an experiment and someone found something in the data that I missed, I would be overjoyed. Sadly, I don't have a bunch of subjects, nor do I have the knowledge of statistics necessary to do such an experiment myself. There are also plenty of experiments in the real world I would love to undergo if I only had the resources, but c'est la vie.

Misaligned, I just have to ask. Why are you so upset over this? I disagree with your claims about a game's economics and one would think I insulted your mother or something. So let me just say that I'm sure your mother is a fine person indeed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Misaligned I did not claim that anti-flipping has no effect.

If that is not your claim, then great, we have no reason to be arguing. But then why are you so upset about someone pointing out that such a conclusion cannot be drawn from your experiment? Why do you write long post after long post about how unfair it is to say so? Why are you constantly telling me to prove the contrary? Why is this thread sarcastically titled the way it is? Why do you go on to tell me about how you intended this thread to be directed at those who claim flipping is affecting the market? If that's not your claim, why didn't you just say "Yep, just like you say, this doesn't prove anything about whether flipping affects the market," and our conversation would have ended as soon as it started?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Misaligned And what exactly do you base this on other than your opinion that I didn't do enough data collection in a manner you would find acceptable? Asserting something is incorrect with only an opinion and no actual data to support your claim... your conclusion is the only erroneous one I see here

I base it on scientific method. If you believe it is only "opinion" that scientific method is the ideal method for testing a hypothesis, then I'm certainly game to hear about any flaws you have discovered with the scientific method. I'm not sure what kind of data you want from me. You're actually challenging me to give you data to prove that an experiment should have scientific methodology in order to gather empirical evidence?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Misaligned There is exactly 0 data beyond anecdotal evidence that flippers do anything but good for the market.

I believe you. But why are you telling me this? If you're so passionate about it, then focus your energy on telling that to the people who claim that flippers do negatively affect the market.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Misaligned Finally, I will say this to you - you are feeding the trolls by coming here uninformed and claiming that my conclusions are erroneous.

The definition of troll is not "Someone who disagrees with Misaligned." If I'm uninformed about something, I don't see how that is relevant. I doubt there is some information that, if I was aware of it, would prevent me from pointing out flawed methodology in experimentation. Unless that piece of information is some thread I missed where somebody says they will kill a cute fluffy bunny every time someone points out flawed methodlogy in experimentation. But I am really not going to feel bad because you have an argument with someone and I pointed something out that weakened your argument.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Misaligned Once again I will invite you to run your own experiment. If you are unwilling to do anything aside from sitting here and poo-pooing on other people's work, then you really have very little to offer to the conversation, don't you?

It's silly when people say that someone can't criticize a film/song/painting/interpretive dance/underwater ice sculpture unless they have done one themselves. It's ginormously silly when someone says that a person can't point out a flaw in an experiment unless they have done one themselves. I can't imagine where science would be if everyone followed that rule.

TheHallows:

I have gone back and read all of your posts.

Here is my conclusion:

I'm done with you. I've been down this road before and frankly, you're a waste of my time. You say I'm wrong... about something that actually doesn't exist. When I call you to the carpet for it, you say I'm being closed minded and just won't listen to reason.

This is a circular argument that would persist until I got sick of you. I'm just doing it sooner rather than later.

I never drew a conclusion.

You have no idea what the scientific method is - try looking it up. Then try applying it to the OP.

You argue just like all of the other trolls offering nothing more than your opinion that what I did was wrong. A bit self important aren't you? Thinking that you opinion automatically trumps someone else's work... because you want it to.

You are uninformed and not willing to even get off your horse to read what I say, instead trying to turn it on me for calling you out. Sorry, you started this - you claim my conclusions are wrong. I tend to get pissy with people who say I'm wrong "just because". Frankly, you've offered nothing even remotely close to evidence that any conclusions you perceived in reading the original post are wrong. If you feel so strongly that my data is wrong, go make your own - but you won't.

Conclusion 2:

You may or may not respond to this. If you do, you will solidify my reasoning saying I'm being closed minded - and the cycle continues.

Have a good one!


By the way, I am still looking for a our regular "Flippers are Evil" trolls to swing by and show me how this all fits in with their vision of how flippers ruin the economy.

I believe that I've had this discussion with you in-game about this. I'll say the same thing here that I told you there.

None of what you've done establishes anything related to your claims about flippers and the effect that flipping has on the economy. I'll tackle the specific claims made in this recent post though.

"The fact is (and this is fact, documented here on these forums for you to paruse) that people are regularly coming here blaming flippers for the following:

a) Manipulating prices
b) Putting things for sale beyond the reach of the casual player
c) Asserting that if flippers left things alone that prices would drop
d) Asserting (oddly enough) that all of the multitudes of data collected on this very subject and its impact on the specific item don't actually warrant any merit for all of the reasons you claim. "

a.) Pinching supply does inflate the price of an item. This is seen on a regular basis. Nothing in your experiment addresses this, only your failure to spontaneously produce an opposing effect.

b.) This is somewhat dubious, as people have radically different ideas of what the 'casual player' is and who the 'majority of players' are. At best, it can be stated that prices are easily inflated to the point that they are impractical to buy.

c.) If flippers stopped attacking items on the market then, yes, the prices for those items would indeed drop, then stabilize.

d.) There are a variety of reasons that this experiment doesn't establish or conclude much, mostly in your failure to attempt a control, having only a single variable, then (worst of all) assuming inerrancy. One of the most significant points in publishing any experiment is listing possible issues, accounting for known and possible errors, then stating the evidence and scenarios that would invalidate the conclusions. Lacking this most important element alone cripples any credibility - aside from the other failing points.

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Now, that being said. I've a few points of my own to make.

1.) There are too many far more significant issues with this market to claim that flippers alone are single-handedly ruining anything.

Oh, it's annoying, yeah. But that's the whole of what it is at it's worst. A nuisance that passes in time. There's no real profit made off of it, it wastes alot of time in effort, and from what I can tell, it's mostly just a result of people with too much money and too much time. Or angsty people who think they're 'cool' contributing to some kind of 'anarchy'.

Regardless, the worst they accomplish is a temporary effect (talking months in some cases, but still).

2.) For the people that take serious issue with what flippers are doing to common salvage:

Architect Missions are your friend.

- Run 1000 ticket farm.
- Roll common salvage (1/6 chance to get exactly what you're looking for, 8 tickets each. Given how easy tickets are racked up, even 80 is a small price to pay for uncommons that you don't need more than a few of)
- Dump rest on market or store in SG supply for rainy day.
- Spot flippers spiking random items on market, piggyback using stored excess.
- PROFIT.

My, that's a lot of unsupported statements, Alkirin.

In many cases, my experience suggests that you're wrong.

On a petty note, "wastes a lot of time and effort" is the usual phrasing. If you actually meant "wastes a lot of time IN effort" I apologize for my high-handed tone.