Why Flippers Ruin the Economy!
By
Adeon Hawkwood,
Posted on: 2010-10-11 24:35 in The Market and Inventions
Quote:
Ok you challenged mean n vicious on the fact he couldn't know for sure that the moves he attributed to flipping were caused by flippers.|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
(shrug) I can't even guess how you read that into my posts.
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You are of correct on that point. If someone doesn't come forward and detail the experience there is no way to "KNOW". That doesn't matter. Unless its not happening at all, it does have an effect the hard question is how much ?
So when he says that he has seen the effect and you say he can't know you are in effect saying he has misidentified every time, and it doesn't happen
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Wrong. That's not what I'm saying "in effect" (great weasel words there).|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Ok you challenged mean n vicious on the fact he couldn't know for sure that the moves he attributed to flipping were caused by flippers.
You are of correct on that point. If someone doesn't come forward and detail the experience there is no way to "KNOW". That doesn't matter. Unless its not happening at all, it does have an effect the hard question is how much ? So when he says that he has seen the effect and you say he can't know you are in effect saying he has misidentified every time, and it doesn't happen |
What if he is mis-identifying *SOME* flipper activity and draws conclusions based on those observations?
Saying "Flippers cause this and flippers cause that and I know it's true because I saw it with my own eyes." just doesn't carry any weight. There's too much other stuff going on.
Look at all the times that there have been large, sudden movements in the stock market and no one can explain why. The market is highly regulated and there are tons of smart people who are well-paid to keep an eye on it.... and they can't always explain what's going on. Our market is almost totally opaque (except to the devs, presumably). It's a 'black box' where you do things through the market interface and stuff happens. If it existed in a vacuum, you could do controlled experiments and figure out the properties of the market. But it doesn't. There are hundreds of other people messing with it at any given time. Some are buying to use, some are buying to craft and sell, some are flipping, some are maliciously manipulating.
Now, I'm not saying you can't draw general conclusions and learn the market well enough to use it effectively. I'm saying that people are just blowing smoke when they start talking in absolutes about the characteristics of the market with statements like "FLIPPERS HAVE EXACTLY THIS EFFECT!"
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Quote:
First you need to apply that same logic to both sides of the argument not just one.|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
Wrong. That's not what I'm saying "in effect" (great weasel words there).
What if he is mis-identifying *SOME* flipper activity and draws conclusions based on those observations? Saying "Flippers cause this and flippers cause that and I know it's true because I saw it with my own eyes." just doesn't carry any weight. There's too much other stuff going on. Look at all the times that there have been large, sudden movements in the stock market and no one can explain why. The market is highly regulated and there are tons of smart people who are well-paid to keep an eye on it.... and they can't always explain what's going on. Our market is almost totally opaque (except to the devs, presumably). It's a 'black box' where you do things through the market interface and stuff happens. If it existed in a vacuum, you could do controlled experiments and figure out the properties of the market. But it doesn't. There are hundreds of other people messing with it at any given time. Some are buying to use, some are buying to craft and sell, some are flipping, some are maliciously manipulating. Now, I'm not saying you can't draw general conclusions and learn the market well enough to use it effectively. I'm saying that people are just blowing smoke when they start talking in absolutes about the characteristics of the market with statements like "FLIPPERS HAVE EXACTLY THIS EFFECT!" |
When someone says flippers stabilize prices they are making that exact same leap you are accusing mean n vicious of.
Second I have no idea how you can go from statements like "cause prices to rise" to exactly this effect.
Third " I'm not saying you can't draw general conclusions" is exactly what you did say. People are looking and seeing the pattern. Every instance that fits the pattern may not be part of it, but that's the way to bet.
When I said Alchemical silver was being manipulated I did that based on the fact that that the low price you could buy it for did a very nice consistent walk up and there was a tremendous gap between it an the buy it nao price. There may be other reasons than manipulation but I haven't seen anything better put forward as an explanation
We have more than enough examples of people doing this and it being profitable for them
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Fair in that I should have said "it hasn't been the conventional wisdom for a very long time." I meant the "never" in the context of this conversation, but that wasn't at all clear.|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Come on Uber that was exactly the conventional wisdom till Gamemaster ??
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Even before then, I still don't think I agree that the "common wisdom" was that you couldn't manipulate and make a profit, if for no other reason that I know I wasn't sure of that, but I won't say that it wasn't presented as common wisdom, because I honestly don't recall.
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| If you look at the price range and volatility in the items that are being manipulated, there is no way under heaven you can say the manipulation decreased volatility or even did much to insure supply. |
There are two separate claims by the folks who, very broadly, are on the same side of the court as Nethergoat. I think that perhaps those claims become conflated. One is the above description of "pure" flipping, and the other is the claims about the risks and effort usually involved in profitable price manipulation of common salvage (especially high-level commons).
As often the case, I think part of this is that the people in this forum tend to have a very specific, sub-community-defined meaning for the word "flipper", while the folks making the "wild claims" just use that word to mean anyone who buys stuff on the market and sells it back looking for profit, no matter their methodology.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
... Just look at common salvage just after the market merge, the manipulated items like luck charms and alchemical silvers were both more available and cheaper. You didn't see 100k ranges between the patient buy price and the buy it now price in alchemical silver....
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And since you are so versed in what things cost prior to the merge vs what they cost now... why don't you bother to point out that most things actually ended up at the higher of the 2 prices (blue side vs red side)?
Common salvage was insanely expensive blue side vs red side pre-merge. After merge? Its still on or very near blue side pricing. Rare salvage was dirt cheap compared to red side - now? Its up or near the red side pricing pre-merge?
Why don't you come up with an argument that actually holds weight for once AF? Why don't you look in the forums for your own and see the many... MANY experiments that can be found about flipping and see how many you can find that prove that prices can be raised by flipping alone.
Here's another thought - I know a guy who can dunk a basketball - therefore, I will apply your logic and say "Hey, everyone who ever touches a basketball can dunk."
No one ever claimed that you can't f with something and have an effect. If you believe otherwise, you're an idiot. However, since you seem to once again to be on the slow end of the pole here I'll take the time to explain it to you once more in small, easy to read words, that you will quote, insult, then try to dispute:
Flippers in general do not raise prices.
Flippers in general stabilize prices.
Flippers in general have a positive effect on supply.
Flippers in general do not waste their time and effort doing things like hard-core manipulating to attempt to inflate prices to a point that they will not bear.
Flippers in general will make acceptable profits flipping things like salvage if and only if they do not invest a huge amount of time in it.
Your position - feel free to explain your actual position (if you have one) is as follows from what I read:
All flippers raise prices
All flippers cause wild swings in prices - always driving them up to insane amounts
All flippers buy up all of the salvage and destroy it, thereby making a huge profit.
All flipper perpetually manipulate the market to their own ends, destroying supply and driving prices to many, many times what the market will bear.
All flippers do this maliciously and make huge profits doing so.
I find it amazing that one side of this argument has to "qualify" its words just to get the other side to even look at them, while the other side speaks in absolutes.
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Your not being around to read it does nothing to invalidate my findings.|
Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
ROFL
An excuse. Predictable. Data = None. |
Plenty of folk around here did read it.
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| The need to insult - this an excellent indicator that you know you're wrong, but you are more than happy to spin fiction to benefit yourself. |
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
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LOL you can't even be consistent in a single post.|
Originally Posted by Misaligned
Misaligned rewrites peoples positions and attempts to rewrite history as well
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You start this thread with propaganda masquerading as an experiment
Or maybe you didn't try and pass this off as significant
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| I haven't impacted the price at all. It hasn't gone up or down. I can still buy high and sell low at will. |
Now you are trying to say your position was that "Flippers don't always have a negative effect".
OK !!!
Sure you did.
And anyone who actually reads this thread will see that is exactly what you have said, and it wasn't just you lashing out at people who said you did a sloppy job. You attacking people for saying things were possible, that you said weren't. You spinning like a top when evidence that completely destroyed your position was presented, and finally you trying to extract yourself from the quagmire you created.
Just so you understand, seeing as you have managed to miss it in the hundreds of posts I have made on the subject.
My positions have always been
1. Prices can and are manipulated anyone who says otherwise is either ignorant or a liar.
2. You can buy high and sell even higher and make a profit.
3. People that don't like playing the market game should have comparable alternatives. Seeing as they now do 3 is moot.
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Originally Posted by Nethergoat
Actually, it's an excellent indicator that my patience for people who show up and start yelling UP IS DOWN, WHY SHOULD I PROVE ANYTHING, I JUST KNOW IT SO NYAAAH NYAAAH NYAAAAH! is shot after years of explaining very basic, obvious principles to blinkered know-nothings who're too lazy or disingenuous to back up their claims with data. |
LOL this from a guy, who accepts what may have been the worst experiment on face value and spends endless posts defending it, but when anyone comes out with the slightest big of challenging data spins like a turbine.
I'm starting to get it now, I think. Another_Fan sees manipulation everywhere, apparently. I just don't see it that way at all. I'm not sure either of us has the time, energy or ability to convince one another of each other's position.
I'm just not predisposed to see conspiracies when I can envision another explination.
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Likewise.|
Originally Posted by Camper
I'm just not predisposed to see conspiracies when I can envision another explination.
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Nearly everything that happens on the market is driven by what the playerbase is currently prioritizing.
Most people (and thus most gamers) are basically lazy.- why would they struggle and fight against the tide when it is easier and more profitable to go with the flow?
I mean, aside from doing stuff just to see if you *can*.
But that's always going to be an extreme minority- some folk like to run those uber-killer MA missions just to see if they can hack it, but the vast majority either want fun stories or pushover farms.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
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Originally Posted by Camper
I'm starting to get it now, I think. Another_Fan sees manipulation everywhere, apparently. I just don't see it that way at all. I'm not sure either of us has the time, energy or ability to convince one another of each other's position.
I'm just not predisposed to see conspiracies when I can envision another explination. |
Why would you need a conspiracy ?
All I say is that the conditions are there and it happens.
I'll even go so far as to say its an outgrowth of the poor design of the market system. There may be large double blind auction houses that accept items on consignment in the real world but I don't know of any of them.
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First, stop being an *******. Really, this is quite immature and frankly, you lose more credibility just being a dick than for the blatant statements you make.|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
LOL you can't even be consistent in a single post.
You start this thread with propaganda masquerading as an experiment Or maybe you didn't try and pass this off as significant Now you are trying to say your position was that "Flippers don't always have a negative effect". OK !!! Sure you did. And anyone who actually reads this thread will see that is exactly what you have said, and it wasn't just you lashing out at people who said you did a sloppy job. You attacking people for saying things were possible, that you said weren't. You spinning like a top when evidence that completely destroyed your position was presented, and finally you trying to extract yourself from the quagmire you created. Just so you understand, seeing as you have managed to miss it in the hundreds of posts I have made on the subject |
Second... if:
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My positions have always been 1. Prices can and are manipulated anyone who says otherwise is either ignorant or a liar. 2. You can buy high and sell even higher and make a profit. 3. People that don't like playing the market game should have comparable alternatives. Seeing as they now do 3 is moot. |
Then wtf is your problem? Are you dense? Incapable of reading? Illeterate or just a jerk? Cause hey - no one is saying those aren't true.
But hey, you keep at it.
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Take your own advice. You went completely nuts because people told you, your experimental technique was poor. Pardon me if I react badly to people telling me I hate things I don't, I am kowtowing to a party line, or I have some desire to persecute people I have never met.|
Originally Posted by Misaligned
First, stop being an *******. Really, this is quite immature and frankly, you lose more credibility just being a dick than for the blatant statements you make.
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Second... if: Then wtf is your problem? Are you dense? Incapable of reading? Illeterate or just a jerk? Cause hey - no one is saying those aren't true. But hey, you keep at it. [/SIZE][/SIZE] |
Now we have a new thread where an attempt is being made to redefine flipping as something completely innocuous. Its already failed. I wonder how many people have spotted the error.
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Sorry if I wasn't clear. I am applying this to both sides. That's why I used the phrase "flippers cause this effect" rather than "drive prices up" or "stabilize prices". I think people on both sides are getting carried away in their certainty about the conclusions they draw from their own observations.|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
First you need to apply that same logic to both sides of the argument not just one.
When someone says flippers stabilize prices they are making that exact same leap you are accusing mean n vicious of. |
I can't tell you how many times that I've read posts by people who clearly know what they are talking about, and whose conclusions are directly contradicted by my own experience. Rather than simply believe the evidence of my own eyes, I consider that both of us are only seeing a part of what is actually going on and are drawing conclusions based on partial and/or flawed information.
A lot of threads in this section start off discussing valid concerns or interesting aspects of the market but end up drilling down into such minutia that the arguments no longer serve a useful purpose.
It's like two carpenters arguing over the length of a plank where the plans call for it to be 6' long. One insists the length is 5.94 feet while the other insists he is measuring it wrong and it's actually 6.05 feet. They are both overlooking two facts:
1) Their measurements are nonsense because they are claiming precision beyond the capability of their measuring tools.
2) Whether it's actually 5.94 or 6.05 makes no damn difference in the end.
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Take your own advice. You went completely nuts because people told you, your experimental technique was poor. Pardon me if I react badly to people telling me I hate things I don't, I am kowtowing to a party line, or I have some desire to persecute people I have never met.
Read your thread. You have people saying that flippers can and do raise prices, and the other side, inasmuch as there are well defined sides saying, "OH Yeah do an experiment where you raise prices" Now we have a new thread where an attempt is being made to redefine flipping as something completely innocuous. Its already failed. I wonder how many people have spotted the error. |
Wow. Just... wow.
Good luck with your life. At this point I am writing you off as a severely lost cause. You just have no idea how insane you actually sound, do you?
See ya.
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That's a question you should ask yourself.
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Why would you need a conspiracy ?
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Man you accused everyone in this thread that disagreed with you, of invalidating your entire life, and deciding you were a rotten person ? You did it in a thread that was so bad it had to be nuked ? |
Originally Posted by Misaligned
Wow. Just... wow.
Good luck with your life. At this point I am writing you off as a severely lost cause. You just have no idea how insane you actually sound, do you? See ya. |
Now you go calling other people insane ?
WOW !!!
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Originally Posted by Camper
That's a question you should ask yourself.
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I say when people can do something they invariably do. You tell me where there's a conspiracy in that statement, if you can.
C'mon gang, wise up.
Discussing the market with AF is like talking metaphysics with Cotton Mather.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
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You don't live by any clock towers, do you?
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Man you accused everyone in this thread that disagreed with you, of invalidating your entire life, and deciding you were a rotten person ? You did it in a thread that was so bad it had to be nuked ?
Now you go calling other people insane ? WOW !!! Are you trying to pick a fight Camper ? Or are you just trying to paint me as a conspiracy nut just to slander arguments you don't like ? I say when people can do something they invariably do. You tell me where there's a conspiracy in that statement, if you can. |
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I need to add an E: to my list of market forum reactions. If they aren't trying to call you names you lost the argument.
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Originally Posted by Misaligned
You don't live by any clock towers, do you?
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Anyone seen those regenerating fleshes lately? talk about prices being messed with...
tonight I needed an Ancient Bone.
There were 10 on the market.
last 5 between 100k-1m.
I bid 5555 and picked it up about ten seconds later.
what's it mean? Who knows, besides people listing junk salvage for junk prices no matter how low supply gets.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
Okay, you know the "support/resistance" stuff people talk about -- there's a price below which there's too many people who think a stock is worth more, and a price above which there's too many people who think it's worth less, give or take.
In this market, those have another effect, because it's quite possible to have a lot of people who think something is worth a lot less than its current price, but who are compelled to buy it, not because they think it's worth more, but because they need it for something else. And similarly, a lot of people who think they can get more, not because they think it's worth that much in some objective sense, but because they want more money.
The former people will stubbornly leave up bids at low prices, and just leave them. For a long time.
The latter people will stubbornly leave up offers at high prices. For a long time.
There's something on the rough order of a hundred thousand players, and all of them except Golden Girl have at least two characters, probably more. Most characters I see have made it to the point where they have "at least ten" auction slots. So we're talking about something on the order of a million auction slots floating around. (Could be an order of magnitude bigger or smaller, but I don't think that matters; I'd guess bigger, rather than smaller, though.)
There are not that many distinct items. There's what, a couple hundred recipes, and the largest number of levels any of them comes in is 41 or lower, so there might be a few thousand stock items you could have bids or purchases on. (I guess SOs and DOs expand that some, but... who cares. "Few thousand.") That means there are probably at least a hundred auction slots theoretically available per type of item. And except for the specific case of selling enhancements, each slot can be a bid or listing of up to ten items.
What this means is that, while active play is dominated by the perceived shortage of slots, a big part of that "shortage" comes from people leaving ten slots tied up bidding on a stack at each of ten levels of a given recipe at 1/10 the going market rate. Or bidding 123 inf on level 53 SOs. Or whatever.
And that means that it's easy to end up with, say, 1800 scientific theories listed at prices over 200k, because the cost to some user of having the ill/rad troller he played to level 12 and never really enjoyed tie up a few auction slots is basically nil. And similarly, it's easy to end up with hundreds of bids of 10 inf on some item.
So we end up with a situation where the "bids" and "listed" numbers are meaningless on many items -- sure, there's a fair amount of active traffic, but it's quite possible that of the 2000 items you see listed, 1,972 of them are at prices you won't see more than once a month, and 28 of them are within an order of magnitude of the last five sales.
And thus, we have insane volatility on the edges.
Especially because, fundamentally, the prices of common salvage are totally insignificant compared to the costs of the other things going on. I think I paid 234,567 inf for... uhm. I dunno, something. I was doing three or four enhancements for my blaster. I bid crept on a recipe and saved over a million inf from the lowest of the last five prices. At that point, I could have bid 200k inf on every common I used for that enhancement and still spent less than the last purchase price of the recipe.
I think that last bit may be the reason all those people list things at ludicrous prices. In my first week or two, I remember being thrilled that I was able to sell a brass for five thousand inf. Five thousand. That's like half what it costs to buy TOs at level 7! For one salvage!
Later, I happened to see brass sell for 250k, so I listed some. It sold. So I had a character buy a stack for 500, and list a stack for 250k, and a week later, I'd made two million inf. Woah.
Now, if I list brass at all, I list it for 1 inf, because the cost of having to think about it or come back or do something else because the slot is tied up far exceeds the maximum price I ever expect to get.
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Point of order. I knew a player who had only one character and it wasn't GG. I submit that there might be a couple dozen people with only a single toon. That just throws your numbers all out of whack.... |
Originally Posted by seebs
There's something on the rough order of a hundred thousand players, and all of them except Golden Girl have at least two characters, probably more.
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People do it. Is it worth it? not really, not in a time vs money vs effort equation.