Why Flippers Ruin the Economy!

Supply runouts are caused by...<drumroll>...PEOPLE! <rimshot>

[Elvis] Thankya, thankyaverramush! [/Elvis]

I find it amusing that people who want to teach financial literacy to their children are willing to spend money on DVDs and books on the subject. Maybe they could go to their local library instead, possibly "borrow the book NAO", or else put a "hold" on it if it's already checked out?

But that'd be an extra trip to the library, wouldn't it? Guess it's better to pay "BUY IT NAO!!" prices, instead of using the library, or looking at Amazon and Half.com, or a used book store.

"See, Johnny? This is why you shouldn't be like Mommy and Daddy with YOUR spending habits."

People are amusing.

O no, you leveled! If only someone could have foreseen this event!

No, it doesn't. It is just support for the fact that it does happen, which I stated clearly in my post that I know.

What it doesn't support is that it is the common cause.

Price spikes are not a genomic match test. You can claim to have "proven" manipulation only in cases where people stepped forward and fessed up. You can't extend that "proof" to other cases.

If all you're claiming is that buy ups and other price futzing does happen, big whoop, we all know that. If you're claiming what an endless stream of complainers come in here claiming - that any price spike is caused by such shenanigans, then I think your point is a one-legged stool.

You should ask the people who did this how likely they were to have done it outside the supply drought brought on by the Halloween event.

- Never claimed that it was the common cause.
- Never claimed definitive 'proof'. Only mathematics does 'proofs'.

- My claim was that manipulation should be called for what it is, when it happens, as opposed to crying 'tin foil hat' and pointing to any and all other variables as responsible - no matter the stretch, simply because they are present factors.

The irony being that people defended the cases of Alchemical Silver of Ceramic Plates in just that fashion before the confessions were made.


I'll bullet point this. So no excuses in not following it.

1.) Your assumptions are irrelevant. Your data sample is abysmally small and inconclusive.
2.) The point of contention was your conclusion (thus: Non-sequitur, this isn't difficult).
3.) I've detailed more than once why your conclusion does not follow from the data and argument you've presented. If your best retort is to attack me personally, or otherwise strawman my stance...Well, it doesn't speak much for your stance. No amount of ad populum will change that.


a.) Not in response to your data. learn2context
b.) 'My' standard? Scientific method is grade-school level stuff. How pretentious of me to criticize an experiment for not even measuring up to that. I'm such an unreasonable ***.
c.) The two recent attacks were demonstrated proof of how manipulation affects prices - Very counter to your implied conclusion that they don't.

No, I persist in asking for very specific points to be addressed. In general, my posts are being replied to. Thus the pages-long arguments. Seriously. To just strawman the position is one thing, but you're just being lazy with it now.

- My criticisms to your argument haven't been addressed. Just whining and crying about how they're 'My' standards, or that they're otherwise unreasonable. That, and attacking me as if that has any bearing upon the point made.(1)

- Your conclusions do not follow from the experiment and argument you have presented. [The replies: Anywhere from 'yes they do, they totally do' to 'where's your experiment?']
- Additionally, the experiment is of such poor quality that, even if the conclusion was correct - it would not follow from what you presented. [Your reply: Whining about 'unreasonable' standards, strawman of the position against you]
- I've presented two recent instances that demonstrate the implications of your conclusion wrong. [At best, replies seem to insist that these are the only cases in which this has happened, which is laughable]

- See point (1)

My conclusion, given the above. Humor me with something of substance in your reply. Please.

My God, the irony. It burns!

Your quote, above, is nothing less than wholesale justification for claims that any price spike is intentional price manipulation. It is, itself, the same tin-foil-hat claim in reverse. You are pointing to people in this thread and calling them tin-foil-hat wearers for poo-pooing people who we call tin-foil hat wearers for claiming that every price spike is price manipulation.

That justification is bogus. We have two examples during a supply drought to people fessing up to intentionally futzing with supply and/or price. Do you know how many times we have had people cry foul and someone came and posted "oops, sorry, that was me getting Field Crafter"?

The brutal truth is that for any given price spike, the only people who know what caused it is maybe the people who caused it, assuming it was intentional and they even noted that it happened as a result of their market actions. Anyone else looking in from the outside is guessing what the cause is. The problem is that your claim suggests that you know what any given cause is, and that you know when it's manipulation. I'm answering that implication, whether you intended it or not, because I think it's malarkey.

Of course we did. Alchemical Silver is one of the most discussed, analyzed and (probably) fiddled with common salvage in the game. The conclusion of all that? Most of the pricing of that salvage is due to low supply and high demand. When one is guessing what's up with something, as we all have to unless we're the one up to something, the best guess is the most common scenario.

Is this seriously all you're claiming? Because it's definitely not the argument you've been managing to have for the last couple of pages.

• Flipping is not an "attack" on supply. Some of the argument you're having with people is deviating into arguments about what flipping does to the price of goods.
• No one has ever claimed that an intentional attack on supply of goods does not affect their price. No one in this thread has tried to defend that position. The discussions has deviated implicitly into whether or not attacks on supply have meaningful impact on long term price.

I think it would behoove you to state your position - what you are (and maybe what you aren't) arguing - clearly. Maybe it's not strictly your fault, but your debate with others is all over the map from my perspective.

Not so much. To say that something is possible, doesn't infer that it is probable. Even to infer probability doesn't properly assert that something must be.

The only difference between the two cases presented and "whoops, I'm going after field crafter" is the motive, frankly. The mechanism and the effect is the same.


It's been a bit more difficult to drive home than I would like. But this point leads further back to the base of my argument...Which is really just more of a criticism of the OP that some are severely butthurt about.

• There was a moment of clarification between "Flipping" and "Cornering" (what I referred to as 'attacking').
  
• At the risk of sparking a tangent on what marks 'meaningful impact' on the long term, my expression on this matter is that the impact is significant. It's not single-handedly ruining the economy or anything (I rendered it down to 'annoying' more than anything), not by a long shot, but it's dishonest (or just ignorant) to say that there is no notable impact or that some cases have had a long-term impacts (which I would imply that further cases spark the chance of a longer 'wake' - the period for which prices are inflated).

My original intent in this topic is as I stated in my previous post. Mostly a criticism of the 'experiment', and a bone to pick at the conclusion.

You should understand the motive is at the crux of what so many people post on this topic about. There is what feels like a regular litany of people, often new, some of them regular chanters, who go on about how every price spike is a conspiracy intended to raise the price. Usually these posts include some sort of invective against amoral, immoral, or generally dishonest market users.

Anything that looks like justification for that position is going to be met with resistance.

Could you give some examples? Are any of them common salvage?

FWIW, I am stating no position on the OP. I'm not defending (or attacking) what he posted or might have left readers to infer.

Odd.. I don't recall identifying a problem anywhere in my post. Nor do i recall formulating any hypothesis, then testing said hypothesis...

But hey, you say I used the scientific method and didn't just collect some data to share... then you must be right... right?

Also - stop dodging the issue and answer the first question above - do it. Do it now. I'll wait.

Oh, and PS - you're still fat.

I've nothing to say on matters of morality. Perhaps in the real world, on other economic topics, but not on this. I don't see it as applicable.

I'm not labeling 'good' and 'evil' on anything here. I'm simply drawing correlations between actions and effects on the market.



I'm speaking specifically of common salvage. The prices are generally volatile and very vulnerable to manipulation. As a result of how fast it moves, however, the wake following after the spike is notably significant in the cases where it doesn't subside immediately.

In this case, I'm defining the 'spike' as the brief period where prices are driven to extremes, and the 'wake' as the period afterward, where prices settle and average above what they were before the spike.

For instance, Alchemical Silver was averaging between 50-75k before it spiked at several million when it was hit. As of this morning, it was averaging between 150-200k, even though a healthy supply has returned to the market.

Likewise, Ancient Bones were also hit yesterday and also spiked for multiple-millions. However, it's wake was relatively weak (for a period, around 50k or so), and eventually subsided a few hours later, before the end of the night.

A more dubious case, much longer ago, would be circuit boards. They rose from 20-40k averaging to a gridlock at near 200k that held for over a week.

Even in the worst case, the fluctuations are temporary. So the claim that this is 'ruining the economy' can't be sustained. Likewise, however, I scoff at people who say that this kind of thing has no noticeable or significant effect on the market. It's annoying at worst for people who are scrounging for salvage.

Though, personally...If I ever feel that it's that bad, and I need something right now; I just burn some tickets in AE.


I'll forego the irony of this statement in light of not addressing the point of my last post.

I'd point to here...
...Where you seem to infer a particular significance to your findings. I contend that there's no significance at all. To answer the question directly, 'No'.

Throughout the thread, you dance about the direct assertion without actually stating it in order to retain a plausible denial. Which is fine. I accept that. If you aren't making any assertions, then my claim doesn't apply to you. That aside, the experiment is nice but otherwise unremarkable.

Hmm...Well, I just simply look to the very first word of your first post.


Yeah. I see it now. I'm a real ****** for criticizing an experiment that proves nothing and otherwise doesn't fit within the method, then pretends to harbor some measure of significance.

I guess that's why I'm fat.

Which might be useful, or at least interesting, if you had a scintilla of insight or understanding regarding the topic at hand.

Reading your backwash in this thread is like watching a blind cave grub self importantly mount a soapbox to pontificate on color theory to an audience of graphic designers.

I lol'd

What ever you do don't post your results here! The omgurwrong gnomes will jump you and steal your shinies..

My results were skewed by some unfortunate person dropping 35mil on one of my Demonic Threat reports (points to HurrDurrHuurse thread)

Okay, that's a pretty good line.

How do you explain a "healthy supply" returning to the market at this time? ToT is still here until server maintenance tomorrow. (They say midnight, but events seem to almost always last until maintenance.) Where did this supply come from?

Why is that relevant? Because there's something that happens in this market because we're playing with play money and a lot of people don't give a damn not only whether they spend a lot, but also about how much they get. The last 5 history has a tendency to be "sticky". A lot of people tend to post stuff for sale at a price based on the last 5.

If the last 5 history is at a price point that's below "what the market will bear", it will sometimes stay there until something causes it to "unstick", in which case it will often find a higher price. The unsticking can be caused by an "attack" on supply, someone intentionally "painting" the price, or just someone impatient enough to over pay multiple times in a row.

I suspect that Alchemical Silver was underpriced based on its supply during the Halloween event. The intentional supply hoovering drove up its price to a point radically over what the market will "bear" - as evidenced by what happened to outstanding bids. Most people weren't going to pay those prices so they put out lower bids and waited. But what they were willing to pay was still higher than the original price. When the hoovering ended, the price point stayed high, because people were now acclimated to the higher "last 5" and still willing to pay more to ensure they got their supply.

Part of where you and I disagree is that I don't object to that, and I don't consider it a "disruption". Do I have to pay more for it? Sure. Am I nuts about that? No. Do I expect the price to decline as ToT activities cease tomorrow? Yes, assuming nothing else changes. If they drop I19 next week, prices may stay high, because a lot of people may devote time to playing level 50s to unlock and play Incarnate content. That will sustain the supply drought for low- and mid-level salvage.

Who knows, maybe someone was trying to manipulate it that whole time. It does happen. It's just not usually that profitable compared to a lot of less labor-intensive alternatives, so it's not that common any more. (People used to do it a lot more in the early days of the market. Then patterns emerged for higher-margin tactics, and a lot of people's notion of a big profit got a lot loftier.)

I think there's a problem of scale here. I scoff at the notion that either the Alchemical Silver or Ancient Bone examples are significant. They might be noticeable. I'll concede that the Circuit Board example is a lot more notable, but only if it was only possible to get CBs for around 200k, and not just that someone was regularly (re)selling them that high.

This is where I'd say that ToT isn't the do-all, end-all blanket answer to what is happening to the market, as opposed to a blanket trend. Salvage is still being produced and is still pushing through the market. How did the supply rise again? Plenty of causes. Fact is that there's supply now.


Hmm...I had to take a minute to think on this. I can't honestly say that I 'object' to it. I just can't. I've actually participated in or otherwise taken advantage of attacks when they happened. Most importantly, the spikes have a negligible effect on me, as I can circumvent any such issues in less than 5 minutes' time. In the end, I think I'll avoid being a hypocrite about it.


Well, in the sense that 100k is pennies to people, yeah I can see how it could be written off. I'd argue that this is still a far cry from 'no effect', though. We're looking over 2 days past the spike and prices are just now beginning to consistently hold near 100k by my reckoning.

My belief is sooner or later someone will present the sun rising in the east as proof that flipping doesn't affect the game.

C) Examples that run afoul of any of the above are likely to be dismissed. I haven't looked at spirit thorns today, but Alchemical Silver looks to have been driven into the stratosphere, and ceramic armor plates are 100% being manipulated either that or everyone just decided to pay the same amount that is 40 times the old price, and a few people decided to pay 400 times the old price.

D) If you are talking about these things and Nethergoat isn't insulting you, you aren't saying anything interesting and are likely wrong.

you forgot E!!!

E) Without a single shred of evidence to back up their claims, the other side of the fence (people Like AF here) still continue to dispute any and all evidence that flipping has none of the effects that these people claim it does. Despite repetitive proof that they are in fact incorrect in all of their assumptions, they persist. They base the entirety of their arguments on one of the following 3 categories:

1. I "saw" or, anecdotal evidence
2. "Your data collection does not meet my standard"
3. Flippers are all in it together and are only trying to screw over the casual player


When challenged on their assertions and some one shows that their "evidence" in fact has no substance to it what-so-ever they resort to dancing around and mincing words until you actually have no idea what they are trying to say. Generally these people make long, drawn out posts that target quote a previous poster and then re-hash some old arguments and toss out some fresh ones that still amount to nothing. When quoted themselves, they will them claim that it was taken out of context and/or that what they meant to say was "x" and not "540".

These people can be identified most easily by their completely contradictory statements:

A weeks worth of data from one source is not good enough for my standards to judge this conclusion I drew myself.

vs

I watched this salvage get attacked for 20 minutes and therefor I can use this as concrete proof for my point.

Mainly those individuals cannot possibly see how they are even contradicting themselves.

When all else fails, and these individuals are finally "given up on" by those trying to actually educate someone, they then scream "you're acting superior to me and I won't stand for it any longer!", thereby removing themselves from any need to take stock of what they have said. This also allows them to attempt a play at the "pity card" and as such, they can then identify each other and band together against this great oppression.


I just got done watching an amazing show on National Geographic channel about conspiracy theory folks who are 100% convinced that 911 never actually happened and that it was in fact orchestrated by our own government. The beauty of holding such a belief, as described by one person in the show, is that you will never be proven right, because no one will ever have all of the facts. This allows you to continue with your fallacy that you are in fact correct, and that everyone who thinks otherwise is actually working with the conspirators.

Its a nice self-fulfilling attitude that tends to float itself to these forums on a regular basis.

When someone like Fulmens, who has been watching this market, studying it, learning all of its quirks and behaviors for much, much longer than you have says that you are incorrect, then sorry man, you're wrong. He even tends to go about it in a very nice way, allowing you many ways out by allowing you to "actually mean" something completely different from what you said.

Me, I'm not so nice. Personally, all of the people who continue to assert that flipping is "bad" or screws the casual player are off their rocker. I'll tell you that you 're wrong and show you the proof. Whether or not you accept that proof is up to you.


As for the whole "paying more than we 'should' " bull that goes on here, people have been given alternate methods of obtaining everything in this game that have exactly nothing to do with the market. Without exception, those people can't be "bothered" to get their items any other way, and therefore expect the world to accommodate them. They go so far as to suggest things like "built in supply" of items at crafting tables and / or on the market. They suggest that limits be imposed on how much you can list an item for. They do anything any everything to make it so they can have things exactly the way they want it and everyone else be damned. Generally, these are so hilarious, that I personally hope they continue. I mean these people freak out about 100k salvage and have absolutely no inclination to save themselves inf in any other way. Ways that aren't even related to the market!

Example:

We flip out if AlSilv rises to over 100k!

No one seems to care (or even note) that to craft a level 50 recipe costs 490,400 inf, but crafting a level 49 costs 233,580. That's less than half.. its hundreds of thousands of inf less.. but if you gotta pay 50k more than you want to in order to purchase this particular piece of salvage "right this very instant and no way am I waiting 1 whole minute, much less 5" then we come to the forums, cry about the price, and start the witch hunt for the evil flipper that's taking all of your money.

I say bring on the witch hunters! And I welcome every new addition to their ranks! I actually prefer to hear the same old dribble from a new source. Seems odd, I know, but in a way it makes it "new" for me!

So keep at it neigh-sayers! Cry doom and protest for the casual player that doesn't actually exist... in a video game. You provide me with countless hours of enjoyment!

Thanks!

Thanks Alkirin!

I neglected to mention that when you no longer wish to beat your head against their wall, they cry to you and try to provoke you somehow into responding so they can... feel validated? idk... w/e

Thanks again Alkirin, I can't believe I forgot that!