Why Flippers Ruin the Economy!
By
Adeon Hawkwood,
Posted on: 2010-10-11 24:35 in The Market and Inventions
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I did AlSils's yesterday. wasted a good 80 million because I could.
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Originally Posted by Quasadu
Dunno about the AlSil's but it looks like the CAP's was just done for lulz.
http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...7&postcount=10 Which makes this whole thread just that much more awesome. |
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Now that's just dishonest. You've either not read a line of my criticism regarding the whole of things wrong for the conclusion given, or you're intentionally just disregarding it.|
Originally Posted by FourSpeed
So, you're saying that because the OP's post didn't deal with the specific
incident of some guys draining a particular salvage for lulz (and at a significant inf loss, I'll add) that his post is somehow at fault.. Ok - gotcha... You're just trolling... Carry On. |
Disagreement = Trolling is just a far-reaching cop out.
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Originally Posted by FourSpeed
OP's post was a simple experiment which had no appreciable market effect
and supports his initial premise that "anti-flipping" doesn't affect prices any more than standard flipping does. |
Hell, this experiment could have been about almost anything and it would be just as inconclusive given how it was conducted alone.
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No. You switching the premise of your disagreement every time the prior |
Originally Posted by Alkirin
Now that's just dishonest. You've either not read a line of my criticism regarding the whole of things wrong for the
conclusion given, or you're intentionally just disregarding it. Disagreement = Trolling is just a far-reaching cop out. |
one is shot down is the disingenuous part. That IS trolling.
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| His experiment shows that his one inane attempt at anti-flipping failed. That's it. Sadly, that you like the non-sequitur at the end of it has no bearing upon that fact. |
incorrect, why don't you provide a documented refuting datapoint that
shows it with a more rigorous methodology?
At least, he actually *did* an experiment. Where's yours?
Until then, we don't have anything else to talk about.
Regards,
4
I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.
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First of all, no one has shown anything like the notion that it shares genomes with a duck. In fact, when asked for exactly that kind of proof, you've waved your hand at it and made that someone else's problem. Why should someone else do the work to defend an argument you're presenting? |
Originally Posted by Alkirin
It's easy to look at what happened with Alchemical Silver and Ceramic Plate and say 'oh, that's just because of ToTing' or 'that's just because people use Alchemical Silver alot'. Don't get me wrong, those two factors are at play, surely. But that alone didn't drain the supply of specific common salvage to drive prices into the multi-millions for a short time. Contrary to some claims, the wake isn't always a 30 second window that sees prices dropping to the levels they were at - or even lower (exaggeration, but still).
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and shares the same genome as a duck... |
Secondly, no one is claiming it can't be a duck. The only reasonable claim being made is that it's probably not a duck, simply on the basis of there being simpler explanations.
Someone could be manipulating the goods in question. It is poor to assume they are simply because of a few simple reasons.
- Supply is naturally low due to large parts of the player base engaging in ToT activities, which produce little common/uncommon invention salvage.
- People are still likely to be crafting other goods which require said salvage, including those who do so in bulk, such as those crafting for Field Crafter.
- I've been aware of past events like this where a particular salvage was needed to craft a reward only available during the event, and a few players got together and successfully profited by trying to control its supply. (Just as in the "common wisdom" about how to make money doing this, they had to get out after a while or risk making a loss as other players caught on and joined in the profiteering.) Unlike that example, there is no reason I know of to specifically target any given salvage item in tandem with the general supply drought.
There's always the chance that someone is fooling with the price of something and doesn't care about whether they make a profit or not., Given how brief most price spikes in otherwise cheap stuff are, absent environmental explanations like changes in player behavior (like ToT), such behavior doesn't seem to be very common.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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Never underestimate the market force colloquially known as 'lulz'.
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Originally Posted by Quasadu
Dunno about the AlSil's but it looks like the CAP's was just done for lulz.
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The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
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Sig worthy.
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Originally Posted by Nethergoat
Never underestimate the market force colloquially known as 'lulz'.
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@Quasadu
"We must prepare for DOOM and hope for FREEM." - SirFrederick
my work here is done@!
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
I have been so very entertained by this thread over the past few days! Thanks all! I really needed that! 
And since there are some who are bent on the fact that I somehow make an assertion or come to any conclusion in my first post, I will say the following:
You're all little old women with no legs and purple mohawks.
I used unbelievably tight standards when determining this, and can state that the above is 100% fact.
Would any of you care to lay out some empirical evidence that proves me wrong?
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Naturally, I'm going to challenge you on this point.|
Originally Posted by FourSpeed
No. You switching the premise of your disagreement every time the prior
one is shot down is the disingenuous part. That IS trolling. |
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Originally Posted by FourSpeed
Fine. if you feel his approach was wrong and/or conclusion is invalid, or
incorrect, why don't you provide a documented refuting datapoint that shows it with a more rigorous methodology? At least, he actually *did* an experiment. Where's yours? Until then, we don't have anything else to talk about. Regards, 4 |
You can whine that I haven't gone though the trouble that he did in an experiment all you want, but that has no bearing upon the flawed methodology of the experiment presented.
Additionally, what relevance does an experiment of my own have to do with this? That's a childish retort with no bearing upon the point. I could give my advice on how to better run this experiment, sure, if that's what you're wanting. Though, I've already given the brush of my criticism in an earlier post. Feel free to actually address any of those.
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Originally Posted by UberGuy
First of all, no one has shown anything like the notion that it shares genomes with a duck. In fact, when asked for exactly that kind of proof, you've waved your hand at it and made that someone else's problem. Why should someone else do the work to defend an argument you're presenting?
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...Which pretty much just stresses the point I made.
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I'm gonna guess "no", since conducting experiments takes waaay more effort than composing empty forum posts.|
Originally Posted by Misaligned
Would any of you care to lay out some empirical evidence that proves me wrong?
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And I speak from experience!
=P
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
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I thought if there were some malicious manipulation you would actually have to profit from it. Hard to make any sort of profit when you are deleting it |
Originally Posted by Alkirin
Naturally, I'm going to challenge you on this point.
Even if his conclusion was valid, even if...Then what he has done does not support that in the slightest. That's the problem. You can whine that I haven't gone though the trouble that he did in an experiment all you want, but that has no bearing upon the flawed methodology of the experiment presented. Additionally, what relevance does an experiment of my own have to do with this? That's a childish retort with no bearing upon the point. I could give my advice on how to better run this experiment, sure, if that's what you're wanting. Though, I've already given the brush of my criticism in an earlier post. Feel free to actually address any of those. I can't help but chuckle, given that the two items I've mentioned (Alchemical Silver and Ceramic Plates) were the result of malicious manipulation, in which the authors were kind enough to step forward about. ...Which pretty much just stresses the point I made. |
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sig worthy?|
Originally Posted by Misaligned
I could claim that flippers allow brand new players to have a special power which allows them to obtain a pony that shoots rainbows from its eyes, and there wouldn't a single bit of data to show I was wrong.
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or even
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Originally Posted by Misaligned
Flippers allow brand new players to have a special power which allows them to obtain a pony that shoots rainbows from its eyes.
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Wavicle, Energy/Energy Blaster, dinged 50 in Issue 4, summer of 2005.
@Wavicle, mostly on the Justice server.
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no, I would say not|
Originally Posted by Terror1
I thought if there were some malicious manipulation you would actually have to profit from it. Hard to make any sort of profit when you are deleting it
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doing others harm in no way necessitates benefiting onesself
Wavicle, Energy/Energy Blaster, dinged 50 in Issue 4, summer of 2005.
@Wavicle, mostly on the Justice server.
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Dunno his whole argument was what if we kept thousands of salvage with the intent to control. Thats what i got from all the bile he spewed in the market channel.
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Originally Posted by Wavicle
no, I would say not
doing others harm in no way necessitates benefiting onesself |
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Well, maybe that was the intent, but my point is...|
Originally Posted by Terror1
Dunno his whole argument was what if we kept thousands of salvage with the intent to control. Thats what i got from all the bile he spewed in the market channel.
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diminishing supply to the point where people can't make their builds hurts the game whether the person in question profits or not
his benefit and our detriment aren't directly related
Wavicle, Energy/Energy Blaster, dinged 50 in Issue 4, summer of 2005.
@Wavicle, mostly on the Justice server.
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If it's malicious then, by definition, the primary goal is to harm others. Why would that imply profit?
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Originally Posted by Terror1
I thought if there were some malicious manipulation you would actually have to profit from it. Hard to make any sort of profit when you are deleting it
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Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
Aaargh, why does this keep people from making their builds? Do you have any idea what the net supply of new items coming into the market each day is? (Actually, I don't know for sure, but there have been estimates that conservatively put flows of common salvage at over 20k per day. That's brand new supply from mob defeats, not flipping).
If you need a ceramic armor plate for a recipe, and you are outraged that at 1AM PST the last five trades are at over 50k apiece, and there are 15 available, don't fret. Put in a bid of 250 and log out for a day or two. I'll bet you get it.
Remember also, the last 5 trades are not an indication of where the cheapest items for sale are. It's just where people chose to purchase the last five items.
Market movers/manipulators rarely make inf. There's too much supply coming in from every mob defeated in order to defend a market when you have such limited market slots.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
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Using play money to buy a bunch of ones and zeros can "hurt" someone?|
Originally Posted by Wavicle
Well, maybe that was the intent, but my point is...
diminishing supply to the point where people can't make their builds hurts the game whether the person in question profits or not his benefit and our detriment aren't directly related |
I bought and deleted math proofs today. left a bid on a stack of 111 inf each. still filled.
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Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
Aaargh, why does this keep people from making their builds? Do you have any idea what the net supply of new items coming into the market each day is? (Actually, I don't know for sure, but there have been estimates that conservatively put flows of common salvage at over 20k per day. That's brand new supply from mob defeats, not flipping).
If you need a ceramic armor plate for a recipe, and you are outraged that at 1AM PST the last five trades are at over 50k apiece, and there are 15 available, don't fret. Put in a bid of 250 and log out for a day or two. I'll bet you get it. Remember also, the last 5 trades are not an indication of where the cheapest items for sale are. It's just where people chose to purchase the last five items. Market movers/manipulators rarely make inf. There's too much supply coming in from every mob defeated in order to defend a market when you have such limited market slots. |
It's not 'preventing' me from doing anything, but it is irritating.
I don't even specifically know WHAT causes supply runouts. But just to use one example, the other day I was frankenslotting at lvl 32 and the market ran out of one of the common salvages I needed a bunch of (I don't even remember which one now, might have been Ancient Bone, doesn't matter anyway). I mean like literally there were ZERO left on the market.
Now I'm not freaking out, I'm not accusing anyone of anything. I'm just complaining. I tend to be a BUYITNAO kind of guy. I don't mind spending 100k on a piece of common salvage. I DO mind having to log into half a dozen alts to find a piece because the market went dry.
I don't WANT to wait til tomorrow. I want it NOW. I'm WILLING to shuffle around alts looking for what I need, I'm WILLING to go farm some salvage in AE or anywhere. But I don't WANT to. I want to spend money and get my stuff.
Again, I don't know why there are runouts or who causes them. I just don't like it when it happens.
EDIT: TL;DR: I don't really care about high prices, and I certainly don't think flippers cause price increases, I just think supply seems awfully low for some items, what gives?
Wavicle, Energy/Energy Blaster, dinged 50 in Issue 4, summer of 2005.
@Wavicle, mostly on the Justice server.
Gonna toss this out there just one more time because Alkirin and the ilk are not getting it:
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I'll type this VERY slowly so you can follow along:| Even if his conclusion was valid, even if...Then what he has done does not support that in the slightest. That's the problem. |
1 - I make no assumptions in my original post. I present data. Nothing more.
2 - The assumptions derived from said post are of your own design. You have effectively put words in my mouth, then told me I am wrong.
3 - Come up with an actual argument about WHY those conclusions that YOU drew from the post are wrong, and we will talk.
To date these are your exact arguments:
a. Its not RL
b. Your methods of data collecting aren't up to my standard
c. Because I choose to chastise your methods of data collection over the period of a week while I continue to use the very recent and very limited examples attacks on two (yes two) whole pieces of salvage
You persist in saying that no one is answering your points. This leads me to the following conclusions:
a - You're blind
b - You're an idiot
c - Both
d - You have no desire to actually read any responses to you. Specifically Fulmens has gone far out of his way to argue every single point you have put forth and yet you say he wasn't answering your points when you direct quote him.
e - (And this is the actual point) - You don't ever make a point. You talk and talk and talk and talk and talk but you have yet to make a point.
If you stand by all of your posts and banter in the market channel to date, your "point" can be summed up as follows:
"You're wrong."
Well...
You're fat.
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I think most supply runouts are due partly due to the fact that no one wants to be the store who is using their market spots solely in order to supply other people who want it NAO but at "reasonable" prices. And due partly to marketers who get bored and want to take supply off the market for their own reasons. Yes, it is irritating to people who want it now, but is perfectly fine for people who want it tomorrow.|
Originally Posted by Wavicle
It's not 'preventing' me from doing anything, but it is irritating.
I don't even specifically know WHAT causes supply runouts. But just to use one example, the other day I was frankenslotting at lvl 32 and the market ran out of one of the common salvages I needed a bunch of (I don't even remember which one now, might have been Ancient Bone, doesn't matter anyway). I mean like literally there were ZERO left on the market. Now I'm not freaking out, I'm not accusing anyone of anything. I'm just complaining. I tend to be a BUYITNAO kind of guy. I don't mind spending 100k on a piece of common salvage. I DO mind having to log into half a dozen alts to find a piece because the market went dry. I don't WANT to wait til tomorrow. I want it NOW. I'm WILLING to shuffle around alts looking for what I need, I'm WILLING to go farm some salvage in AE or anywhere. But I don't WANT to. I want to spend money and get my stuff. Again, I don't know why there are runouts or who causes them. I just don't like it when it happens. EDIT: TL;DR: I don't really care about high prices, and I certainly don't think flippers cause price increases, I just think supply seems awfully low for some items, what gives? |
(Wavicle, next paragraph does not refer to you, but is a more general observation)
I've been doing some consulting work for a company that teaches financial literacy to kids ages 2-12. Their biggest hurdle is getting children past the point of "I WANT IT NOW" and helping them learn to save and share and spend smart. I find it so ironic that people are willing to spend money on DVDs and books to teach financial literacy to their children and then I read these forums where people moan because they cannot get exactly what they want right now.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
There is already enough waiting for things, both ingame and IRL, I don't want to wait to play my toon with his new slots with what I want in them.
Frankly, although the A-Merit system is an improvement, I wish most of the 1 A-Merit items (or maybe just all or most of the 50 R-Merit items) were available from a vendor for Influence.
It's a GAME. Why should it be reinforcing lessons I learned in kindergarten that I apply constantly in stressful situations IRL? Is that fun?
Wavicle, Energy/Energy Blaster, dinged 50 in Issue 4, summer of 2005.
@Wavicle, mostly on the Justice server.
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and shares the same genome as a duck...
incident of some guys draining a particular salvage for lulz (and at a
significant inf loss, I'll add) that his post is somehow at fault..
Ok - gotcha... You're just trolling... Carry On.
OP's post was a simple experiment which had no appreciable market effect
and supports his initial premise that "anti-flipping" doesn't affect prices any
more than standard flipping does.
Seems clear to me. It didn't refute Elvis sightings in Texas, or that some
folks think the moon landing never actually happened.
Of course, since those things weren't the actual topic of his post, those
omissions aren't unexpected or problematic...
Imagine that...
Regards,
4
I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.