Is CoH gonna be okay?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a CoH hater, I love CoH. That's why I'm so concerned for it. Running for almost six years now, CoH is pretty dated. It's graphics aren't that great ( But we're hoping Going Rogue fixes that ), it's engine is dated and it's combat may be a little dated as well.. I also notice many of the servers ( Guardian for instance ) are nearly dead ( Almost empty ) and the most populated servers don't seem to have that many people on them in the great scheme of things.

Recently I had read that CoH released their subscriber numbers for 2009 and it rounded nearly 130,000 people ( Not quite reaching 130,000 - Something more like in the 128's or something, I think. ) and I notice quite a lot of talk.. Well, everywhere.. From CoH players, haters and lovers alike.. Frankly I'm worried for the game..

It'd be nice if NCSoft staff could answer this, but I don't hold my breath for that.. My question is.. How much is actually riding on the release of Going Rogue being successful? If it's unsuccessful, is that it? Are we looking at dealing with another Dungeon Runner or Tabula Rasa? I hope the game will be okay, but.. At the moment from looking at subscription numbers, discussion and the facts.. It looks kind of grim.

Yes.

In general the long term survival of an MMO is not determined by quantity of subscribers but by how well the game retains them. Obviously there is a network effect whereby if you drop below a certain level then players lack social interaction making them more likely to quit. There is also a level of subscriptions where below that it is economically infeasible to add new content (which in turn makes the game stale and people more likely to quit).

CoH has a very good track record of retaining subscriptions and the current number of subscribers is no where near to making the game unprofitable so I don't see doom in the near future. Eventually no doubt the servers will go dark, but I'm thinking the cause of that will likely be the release of City of Heroes 2: The Coming Storm (or possibly a new MMO that is CoH2 in all but name).


(no, I don't actually believe CoH2 will be tied to the coming storm if/when it is ever made, I just wanted a pretentious subtitle that fit into the CoH lore)

No. Eventually they will shut the servers down. I give this game a decade. Tops.

Things you forget:

1. WoW numbers (or Aion/Lineage/etc.) are not the usual in a western MMO. 130k is actually a healthy subscription number.

2. It's even more healthy when the number has been reasonably steady for several years. Yes, there's a decline - in low percentages.

3. You mention TR - that would not have paid back the HUGE investment without getting, and maintaining, Aion numbers (IIRC, western launch = 400k-500k.) It didn't. The subscriptions dropped like a *rock.* COH, on the other hand, paid back the initial investment some time ago, has continued to make money - enough to be seen as worth *re*investing in (buying the IP, hiring the majority of the project staff - all 15 we had at the time - and hiring more, new office, etc.) Numbers are still healthy enough to pay that back.

4. "Dead" servers - there are already long discussions about that. Dead servers still tend to be quite lively. Yes, going over to (say) Aion, you see more people - but *everything* is done outside there. Hunt missions, gather this, run to X - it's all outdoors. COH, on the other hand - you're inside. You go to a mission and, as far as anyone else in the zone is concerned, you and your team vanish. (Which makes a lot of sense, and makes missions MUCH more enjoyable with no spawn camping, boss camping, resource camping and the like.)

Short reply - COH is, and will be, fine barring some major catastrophe.

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Although not marketing another product, I think this post can be construed as an appeal to fear, through using fear, uncertainty, and doubt to have players second-guess a game that shows no signs of waning. In fact, with the expansion coming out early next year, it appears to be the contrary.

I think "no signs of waning" is a bit overstated. For several months now, I've not seen Pinnacle's pop hit 1000. That's considering both sides. Granted, I have no idea what percentage of players run around hidden from searches like I always do.

But I do know it's been damn quiet in every zone. All the time.

I would hate to be a new player right now.

EDIT: Just logged in. 89 matches found blueside. 2 to 1 ratio has been mostly true forever. That means ~45 redside.

6PM on a night before many are off for 5 days. And Pinn's got less than 150 players not hidden.

This thread is great!

I find that even Triumph (often ranked least, or second-least, populated sever) has at LEAST 50 -unhidden- heroes online in the middle of the night (2-5AM, CST). And I never have trouble finding a team if I want to be on one. Global channels often help a lot in this regard. There's almost always something forming on Triumph Watch 2.0 (or 2.1), and if not, enough equally bored people willing to join me on a quick Katie.

Quite frankly, 130k(-ish) subscribers is fairly decent for any MMO that isn't WoW... and to be honest, last time I checked our graphics were at least equal to, if not superior to, theirs.

On the subject of graphics, it's not like we've been stagnant since CoH launch either... My card that (back then) ran the game seamlessly on medium-high graphics settings now chugs on minimum.

I can be on a team within five minutes of joining City, no matter what server or time I'm on, so I've gotta say, I'm not seeing any issues with population. Of course, I make heavy use of global channels (these things what span across servers and give you a larger pool of teammates!) and a very, very large global friends list (also spans across servers!), so YMMV if you refuse to use the options available to you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dispari I don't know why Dink thinks she's not as sexy as Jay was. In 5 posts she's already upstaged his entire career.