Purple Futures

Future trends in the Purple market

Where will things be one month from now? One year from now? This is a market analysis based on current trends and various assumptions.

The game is heading to more and more powerful level 50 characters. The Alpha Incarnate slot started it all with a +1 Level Shift, which made ALL level 50 content easier. Alpha Nerve and Cardiac boosts increase Defense and Damage Resistance respectively, making it easier to soft cap characters for Defense or Resistance. Alpha Cardiac reduces downtime by reducing END usage, while some Musculature boosts increase END Mod for Stamina and similar powers. Alpha Spiritual similarly increases Healing (including Regen) and Recharge (for healing powers). Whatever holes there are in your build can be filled with Incarnate slots one way or another. If you don't have any holes, you can always go Musculature for more Damage.

Add on the four new Incarnate slots and it becomes sick, particularly the Destiny slots. Stackable Barrier means more Defense and Resistance for everyone. Stackable Ageless means more END, Recharge, and usually Recovery for everyone. Stackable Clarion means status protection for squishies. Stackable Rebirth means healing plus either HP or Regen for everyone. If that's not enough, the Lore pets include untouchable buffing pets, though those aren't available all the time. The other Lore pets mean more damage. The Judgement slot gives a huge crashless nuke that a full team of 8 Incarnates can use every 15 seconds, which means on every spawn. The Interface buffs are pretty small, but stacked Resistance and Regen debuffs make it just a bit easier to take down AVs and other hard targets.

More Incarnate slots and trials are coming, which will likely make characters even more powerful. While the RPers on Virtue would probably like 5 Incarnate slots of controllable customizable non-combat pets, I have a feeling the slots will be for more practical things. The end result is that fully Incarnated characters will do more damage than pre-Incarnate characters could.

If people spend more time playing their level 50 chars (doing Incarnate trials, Weekly Strike Targets, and level 50 TFs for Alpha components), they are more likely to want to improve their characters other ways. That means more IO loaded and cookie cutter builds with high damage, recharge, and Defense. As the general population of IO loaded Incarnates increases, the trials and even TFs will become easier and faster. This is a circle that feeds on itself and just keeps growing. If you haven't done an ITF in a while, try it with a full team of Incarnates. You'll see what I mean.

One problem with the Incarnate Trials is you don't defeat lots of mobs. In the LAM most teams defeat all of the outside mobs and all of the courtyard mobs. Then there's the turrets (EBs that give boss rewards). After that is the AV robot, 20 glowies, and Marauder. The only mobs defeated in the last 2 steps are those caught in the splash, and that's a big part of the trial. If you get the doors fast with Molecular Acid, sometimes it's hard to defeat the 30 mobs you need to show superiority over the IDF. That's a mere 30 mobs for 2 full teams in 10 minutes! The BAF is similar. There are 40 mobs at the start, that's fine. There are 5 minutes of the prisoners in the middle, though the spawns are small and they run a lot. And the rest of the time you're beating on AVs and a few bosses on the side. On top of that, the mobs are very high level in both trials. You spend more time defeating them than if you were fighting level 50 mobs, but the drop chances are the same. I'm guessing the drop rate of recipes and such in those trials is around 1/10 of normal level 50 content, for an equivalent amount of time.

I wrote most of this article before Keyes came out, but I see Keyes is more of the same. Beat up a few mobs early, beat up a few mobs on the reactors, beat up just EBs to get one type of power cell, but you can sneak around and avoid mobs for the other power cells, then the big AV fight. Total drops are trivial compared to a steamroll ITF or LGTF.

The Cathedral of Pain is an extreme example of this sort of thing, that hopefully the Devs will never repeat. The individual mobs give no rewards at all. No XP, Inf, Prestige, Salvage, or Recipes. If you succeed, then there's a small reward at the end. If it didn't include Incarnate Salvage, it would be as unused as the Shadow Shard.

I'm expecting the trend of hard trials to continue, though hopefully none will be as bad as the CoP. You don't make an interesting trial by having people slaughter a huge number of easy mobs. You use hard targets to make it a challenge, some REALLY hard targets that require teamwork, make the characters run around and jump through the right hoops, add in unresistable auto-kill damage because otherwise characters may never die, etc. I would be very surprised to see an Incarnate trial that involved defeating 1000+ even level mobs. Future trials will probably have even tougher mobs requiring lots of earlier Incarnate buffs.

With level 50 chars becoming more powerful, PLing will never leave AE. If you can fight +4/x8 mobs without a problem, then fighting 2 spawns of them at a time means faster XP, and AE lets you do that and more. Walk into an Ambush farm and you're at the agro cap surrounded by a huge number of mobs till you hit the half ticket softcap. Then click a glowie to finish the mish and get the rest of your tickets, rinse and repeat. PLing may not reach the same speed as during the recent Great Monkey Burn, but it will increase with each incremental increase in power.

The game is 7 years old. People know what works and what doesn't. A PUG STF isn't a losing bet these days. The average number of Veteran badges in a team is always going up, though granted going Free-To-Play may change that significantly if there is a massive influx of new people. The leveling rate from normal play is probably higher than it has ever been, and still increasing.

We have already seen the results of these trends. The rate of people hitting 50 is probably higher than it has ever been, excluding exploits. Ticket production is probably at a high as well, and still rising. The demand for IOs is on the rise, and the increase in ticket production is easily keeping pace. That's why Uncommon and some Rare IO recipe prices are still dropping. With all the SS/Fire Brutes farming and PLing, there are a lot of tickets. And I'll be publishing information soon that will let ANYONE farm tickets almost as fast, without needing expensive IOs or even a level 50 character.

Now comes the big problem. Purple production is declining, but demand is still growing. Production is down because 50s are spending more time in low-drop Incarnate Trials. Granted people may be playing their level 50 chars more due to the trials, they probably aren't playing them 10 times as much to make up for the 1/10 drop rate in trials. Demand is up because 50s want them more due to the Incarnate trials, and there are more 50s than ever.

You can now buy Purple and PvP recipes via Empyrean Merits. This may reduce the price of the highest priced ones (like Glad Armor: +3% Def) in the coming months, but that's about it. Only stupid people buy Crushing Impact IOs with Reward Merits, only stupid people buy Positron's Blast IOs with Alignment Merits, and only stupid people will buy purples with Empyrean Merits. At least at their current prices.

In one year, what will things look like? Purples will be more expensive than they are now. People will complain even more, because the average player doing Incarnate trials will be earning less than before the trials. Also farmers will be making more than ever before, because of the increased damage dealing capabilities of Incarnates. Maybe you can earn 3 million Inf/hour doing Incarnate trials, but that's a drop in the bucket when Apocalypse IOs cost a billion each. Meanwhile farmers are earning 3 million Inf/minute. You will no longer be able to just "PLAY MOAR" to earn them, since most large groups will be doing low drop rate Incarnate Trials. Only the ultra rich (Ebil Marketeers and Farmers) will be able to buy them on the Market.

Discuss.

The one possible speed bump I see is exactly HOW restricted access to inventions/the market is for Free/VIP players once Freedom hits.

If Free/VIP players can generate but not buy or use purples, then supply will increase but demand potentially slightly decrease.

If they can use them, then demand could shoot way WAY up without necessarily a corresponding increase in supply.

Too many variables for my taste, so I'll take my normal approach of 'wait and see', especially since I don't use purples, and just regard them as highly concentrated inf drops

However that said, I wouldn't bet against prices continuing to increase, given the overall trend in purple prices.

Very interesting... (not really anything to add/discuss) but I'll grab some popcorn, sit back and watch....

Interesting analysis (as always) TD.

I think that will also continue to mean that mid to low level recipe supplies will
remain rare, as there will be few suppliers. With time-to-50 level speeds increasing,
few folks will be IO'ing anything along the way...

Salvage relating to high-end IO's will stay high, and most other stuff will be
plentiful and low value. We're seeing some of that now (compare Ceramic Armor
Plate with Circuit Boards for instance).

One unknown that may be a factor is the demographics of Free/Premium/ViP
players.

iStuff isn't available to Free/Premium (if I've read that right), so if there's a large
influx of F2P folks, and/or a significant shift from VIP to Premium, that may
dampen the overall trend you're predicting.

If the forums are a decent gauge though, I get the sense that most VIPs will
stay there, adding a 2nd F2P account rather than downgrading from VIP, so I
think your prediction is a reasonable outcome.

It'll be interesting to see how it all develops.


Regards,
4

I don't use purple IOs. If I get a drop, it is crafted and stored in my base in case I decide to use it or if a friend needs it.

Well, they have gone from 30mil to 1bill and ave around 500mil. I don't see them going down. Why? You have people that like to play with the market as well as people that dont. Hoarding, deleting recipes, and all kinds of tricks go into the cost of them. Not just supply and demand.

Ive seen where the F2P users can't use WW so they won't affect us. And the AE farmers don't help with the purple population. I farm mainly in PI but i only sell the ones i don't need in my builds, so i have to hoard a bit, also, until i hit 50. Mainly because i won't buy purples at these prices.

Im not a fan of the alternate methods of obtaining purples, either. Why spend a month doing iTrials and Tips when i can run 2 to 3 farms and get one?

As far as AE is concerned; I'd rather do them for normal recipes and take my chances at rolls than to try to farm normal recipes. I get, on average, more purples than orange recipes farming. (not including temps) And that's another problem. LOWER THE TEMPS PLEASE. I get 3-5 normal recipes per run and about 15-20 commons. Maybe 1 worth keeping or selling. Most of the time, i just delete anything not purple. I can't tell you the last time i got a Kin Com, Numina, or Oblit from normal farm drops.

Well, that's all i have atm.

Fourspeed, Regarding low level recipes, I think you're making a bad assumption. You're assuming those are actually produced by low level players. In fact they're produced by SS/Fire brutes rolling on the low level bronze table, at least most of the ones that are in demand. And they aren't very rare anymore. Steadfast Protection: Res/Def and KB Protection both used to be worth something. Last I checked, one is vendor trash. In fact a fair number of low level recipes used to be worth 5-10M. Now there are very few. Bronze recipes are so cheap in AE that any dip in supply will be quickly covered, no matter what the level. Pretty soon farmers will be switching more to Gold rolls, because Bronze is so oversupplied.

Granted there aren't necessarily many low level bronze recipes on the market. You may have a hard time finding a Bonesnap if you want one. But that's just because people aren't bidding enough to get other people to list recipes, and so many recipes drop that it's hard to do the right thing with every one. There aren't enough transaction slots for lowbies to bid on everything they need, and sell everything other people want.

But I think you're absolutely right about reduced demand for lower level IOs. You don't need any Enhancements if you're being PL'd to 50. And even if you're playing, the increased speed means less time or need for IOs at lower levels. You can only put in a fairly small number of bids, and you virtually outlevel the stuff you buy. Bid on a level 18 Bonesnap: Acc/Dam when you're level 15, and you may get it when you hit 20, at which point you'd want a 23 instead.

Salvage will only stay high as long as people think it is better than recipes in AE. The day Platinum becomes better Inf/ticket than bronze rolls is the day Platinum prices crash. Part of my new farm is an analysis on how to effectively spend your tickets. I haven't started on it yet, but I expect to see a few surprises. Say I earn 9,999 tickets in 20 minutes. I can trade that in for 124 pieces of specific Uncommon Salvage. If some piece is selling for 150-250k and a flipper has enough outstanding bids at 150k, I can make over 18M Inf. Maybe that's better than Bronze rolls, maybe not.

With /auctionhouse, it becomes REAL easy to sell massive amounts of Common Salvage while standing at the ticket vendor, as long as there are outstanding bids. If there are several pieces of Common Salvage in the same category (say low level tech), then that becomes a good way to use tickets. Convert 9999 tockets to 1249 random pieces of Low Tech Salvage, scrap the half that is junk, sell the other half. Say 624 pieces at 50k each is 31M Inf. Consider this fair warning to all of you Salvage flippers.

I agree that changing demographics could be very disruptive to the Market, but I doubt that it will be. Given the emphasis on microtransactions, I'm guessing F2P and Premium players will be able to do most everything VIP players do if they pay for it. That means at least some F2P and Premium players will be generating and using purples, which means they're the same as VIP players for this analysis. Those F2P and Premium players who can't generate or use purples won't really affect this. The only problem would be if they can do one but not the other. If they can generate but not use purples, prices may drop big time. If they can use but not generate purples, that's just one more thing driving prices up.

Personally I'm looking forward to massive multiboxing. I got my old computer shortly before CoH was released in 2004, and I just replaced it this past Christmas. I may be able to run 8 accounts on my new machine. That's an entire Fire/Rad SuperTeam. If F2P players can get recipe drops, then this will likely increase farming rates and therefore purple production. We'll see.

eryq2, you may not want to buy purples at their current prices, but some people do. Prices are still going up, and the purples aren't sitting around gathering dust on the shelves.

I wonder if the demand for purples will rise or fall with the new Paragon Reward which will let you upgrade your current IOs to make them stronger.

I can see players wanting to buff their purples, but at the same time, if they can make their current/cheaper IOs just as effective, why bother with the purples? There are caps, afterall, so anything over those is just vanity.

from the Ustream thread:

For me the purples are good for making such things as hastenless permadom or turbocharging stoner armor toon to not require SB as much if at all. Nowadays when I get a purple drop I sell it, or craft then sell it depending on price differential of recipie vs. crafted and use the funds to finance the construction of other alts.

As for more defense from using Nerve in Alpha, that is only about a 3% def boost which while nice can be obtained from certain IO's (one cheap, one too expensive) vs. the benefits of Cardiac helping to make ur alt into an energizer battery.

Take the Magic: The Gathering 'What Color Are You?' Quiz.

SB grants +Runspeed, +Recharge and +Recovery. All but the runspeed are available through purple bonuses.

Why don't let us buy purples with reward merits again? Oh yah, because the devs. said they would cost an ungodly amount of merits. Who cares, give us the option!

You already have the option. 1500 Reward merits (plus cash)-> 30 Hero/Villain Merits-> purple.

A main part of my post was regarding the reduced purple production and income of the main CoH population players, which is opposed by the increased purple production and income of farmers, all due to the Incarnate trials and powers. It isn't really about the raw price, but more the increasing gap between normal players and farmers. And if a lack of Inf sinks will make purple prices rise, why are other prices dropping. "A rising tide lifts all boats", but that isn't happening. Does a pretend clergyman have any insights to share in this fake video game market?

I'm already creating loads of common salvage and vendoring it as you describe. It takes me a bit longer to earn the 9,999 tickets than you mentioned, but my results last week indicate I can make more reliable money with common salvage than with Bronze/Silver recipes.

Also the some of the mid level recipes are coming from one of my level frozen claw/fire brutes running the lowbie farm maps. It only takes about 1/2 an hour to get a brute to 20 or so and lock them there for such production. I have a team of brutes at 20, 25 and 30 to fool around with, but haven't yet had the time.

This is a dumb question, I'll freely admit it. But I got out of the game shortly after Architect launched, and am only just getting back into it.

So I gather that there are ways to farm AE for lots of money, by dint of trading in tickets. How exactly does that work? I'd really like to understand it, purely for research purposes...

Eh...who am I kidding. I really want to get purples for some of my characters, but the prices they're going for on the market are totally ridiculous; I've never managed to scrape together more than a couple hundred mil at one time and I feel like I'm missing out. I see people talking upthread about earning 3 mil a minute and goggle. How can I do that?