cox 2010 3rd quarter earnings
By
Ad Astra,
Posted on: 2010-11-09 17:03 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
I know that, before Going Rogue, Union and Defiant never moved from Green.
Since GR, both have seen movement into Yellow, Union very consistantly.
Thats all the evidence I need. Other than, y'know, enjoying the hell outta the game.
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Originally Posted by Zwillinger
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Originally Posted by Captain_Photon
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Figures don't lie but liars figure.|
Originally Posted by ebon3
How's that saying go? "Numbers dont lie, but liars make the number"
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These numbers are just sales,though, correct? NCSoft used to have subs as part of their info, too, but I think they did away with that. Two months after GR, Virtue and Freedom are consistently full, so subs must be doing pretty well. A $40 sale is probably equivalent to a monthly sub, after overhead, expenses and sharing it with retailers. Might even be less take-home than $15.
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Unclearic, huh? "Discuss much."
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Originally Posted by Schismatrix
He's at it again, whatever it is. No need to discuss-muss.
Just drop off the key, Lee... |
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Well, yes, but the "ch" in much is blurred a lot in the song to make it rhyme better with Gus and i was being more phonetic than pedantic. |
Originally Posted by Ironik
Unclearic, huh? "Discuss much."
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Silly of me, i know.
Dr. Todt's theme.
i make stuff...
There are three types of lies out there - lies, damn lies and statistics - to paraphrase Mark Twain.
Game is busier than it was (at least in some zones), new people asking questions here on the forums, servers showing yellow and red.
As much disdain as OP has for this game, one wonders why he is still here and paying for a sub.
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Dunno actually.|
Originally Posted by ebon3
How's that saying go? "Numbers dont lie, but liars make the number"
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I just know that it always seems like numbers on some stat sheets can be seen moving from a mile away like a game of Three Card Monty
@Patrick Magellen
Infinity & Freedom Servers!
Same quarter to quarter numbers.
3QY09 - 5471 million won = $4.40 million US (3QY09 average exchange rate 1243.32370 Korean won to $1 US)
2QY10 - 3491 million won = $2.99 million US (2QY10 average exchange rate 1167.69275 Korean won to $1 US)
3QY10 - 5709 million won = $4.81 million US (3QY10 average exchange rate 1187.31793 Korean won to $1 US)
So the quarter is up year to year. I guess Going Rogue did well.
For giggles 3QY08 was 6193 million won which was equal to $5.81 million with the average exchange rate being 1066.12848 KWN to 1 USD.
As for Aion, when it first came out in Asia, NCSoft year to year sales doubled for that quarter and profits were up over 400%. Aion was almost as big as Lineage I and II combined that quarter (4QY09).
Edit: Historical conversion rates found at Oanda.
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Read the book Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception by Charles Seife for a look at how numbers can be twisted and torn to serve whatever ends you please.
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Originally Posted by Magellen
Dunno actually.
I just know that it always seems like numbers on some stat sheets can be seen moving from a mile away like a game of Three Card Monty |
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Here are the 2010 Qs in unadjusted KR:
1Q: 3,348
2Q: 3,491
3Q: 5,709
CoH is outperforming Guild Wars this year.
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Originally Posted by ebon3
How's that saying go? "Numbers dont lie, but liars make the number"
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Originally Posted by Ironik
Read the book Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception by Charles Seife for a look at how numbers can be twisted and torn to serve whatever ends you please.
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A damn good accountant can easily be as evil as a damn good lawyer
That being said I overal trust the ownership/devs with the stats that are generally released for the game
It always kills me when I read posts from time to time on other threads from fanboys and such with NO actual business background talking about "real life business"
LOL
@Patrick Magellen
Infinity & Freedom Servers!
NUMBERS LIE!
Blah! That's just anti-intellectual conspiracy-theorist stupidity.
Sure, you can alter numbers to hide the truth.
But if you're a big corporation making reports to your shareholders on a quarterly basis, then such number-altering can put you in jail and is not wise to do.
And nearly impossible to do for a decade. Eventually, if you are number shifting, it will crash around you (cf. Enron).
There's a high confidence in the numbers NCSoft puts out. Anyone claiming otherwise is doing so based on nothing more than tin-foil-hat stupidity.
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There really isn't a reason to change the numbers anyway, if CoH wasn't getting the money they wanted, they'd just cut and run, sell it off or something. They have no reason to pretend it's doing better than it is.
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Originally Posted by Zombie Man
NUMBERS LIE!
Blah! That's just anti-intellectual conspiracy-theorist stupidity. Sure, you can alter numbers to hide the truth. But if you're a big corporation making reports to your shareholders on a quarterly basis, then such number-altering can put you in jail and is not wise to do. And nearly impossible to do for a decade. Eventually, if you are number shifting, it will crash around you (cf. Enron). There's a high confidence in the numbers NCSoft puts out. Anyone claiming otherwise is doing so based on nothing more than tin-foil-hat stupidity. |
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Thanks Ironik, I knew it was something along those lines.
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Originally Posted by Ironik
Figures don't lie but liars figure.
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------->"Sic Semper Tyrannis"<-------
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Originally Posted by Father Xmas
Same quarter to quarter numbers.
3QY09 - 5471 million won = $4.40 million US (3QY09 average exchange rate 1243.32370 Korean won to $1 US) 2QY10 - 3491 million won = $2.99 million US (2QY10 average exchange rate 1167.69275 Korean won to $1 US) 3QY10 - 5709 million won = $4.81 million US (3QY10 average exchange rate 1187.31793 Korean won to $1 US) So the quarter is up year to year. I guess Going Rogue did well. For giggles 3QY08 was 6193 million won which was equal to $5.81 million with the average exchange rate being 1066.12848 KWN to 1 USD. As for Aion, when it first came out in Asia, NCSoft year to year sales doubled for that quarter and profits were up over 400%. Aion was almost as big as Lineage I and II combined that quarter (4QY09). Edit: Historical conversion rates found at Oanda. |
Good break down. I am glad to see CoX improve but they only did a bit better than last year around the same time (not bad but you would figure GR should have done better for them).
I think the 4Q will also be quite telling. Stay tuned, true believers!
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Well like other box releases, 4Q sales will probably drop back to about the same level as the quarter before the box sales spike. Maybe even a tad higher depending on how the origins pack does and if the incarnate system in i19 would convince people to resub. But guessing 4Q would be closer to 2Q than 3Q sales wise.|
Originally Posted by TheJazMan
I think the 4Q will also be quite telling. Stay tuned, true believers!
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EDIT: Actually, thinking about it some more...4Q would be telling in more ways than one possibly. The server load indicators were green for all servers in 2Q, if the sales (which predominantly represent subscriptions) in 4Q turns out to be close to that of 2Q and if the load indicators are still yellow/red that could mean that the load threshold ranges have changed.
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Originally Posted by OPTICAL_ILLUSION
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CoX is such a small part of those bar graphs that it does scare me a little though.
Yes just looking at NCSoft's total sales CoX is usually around 2% of that, which doesn't seem like much. But another thing to consider is how much they want North America sales. NA sales to date is 40,645 mn krw which CoX comprises a little less than 31% of that. I'm sure that counts for something, or i'd like think it does.
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CoX has always been a small part of NCSoft's over all revenue picture. As long as it isn't an "Auto Assault" small size of the picture, there are no worries.
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Originally Posted by jp74
CoX is such a small part of those bar graphs that it does scare me a little though.
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Saw full page GR spread in superboy #1
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Originally Posted by Magellen
Intriguing
I used to own a big, nice restaurant and numbers CAN be "moved around" to prove anything and everything  That being said from my gut feeling AND from player-base data and info gathering I think it is overall pretty sound. Re-investing, payroll(s), design, equipment upkeep/purchases, advertising (which is a JOKE) and such will make the pie cut up into a LOT of slices. But then again..... quite natural for a company/product of this size. I have never questioned ownership/upper-management etc about the CoX franchise in any form when it comes to finances..... but I have ALWAYS wished there would be MORE "advertising" and such.  Don't get me wrong... word of mouth is the BEST "long-term" form of it. But in this technological age that we live in.... I would love to see something worked out where some more "conventional" forms were given their due. TV and Magazines come to mind..... but that is just a pipe-dream LOLBelieve me.... I get SICK of seeing WoW or other games' tv commercials when I know that CoX is soooOoooOooOoo much better on many levels. Oh well Sorry to get on that "rant" |
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I'd also think that, for a 6+ year old game, that NCSoft has already recouped their initial investment and at this stage in the game, CoH is making them moneyhats.
Unless CoH sees a sudden decrease in subscriptions over, say, the next year (oh, hi Aion!), I feel CoH will stay.
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Chart is based only on sales in Korean what evers with no adjustments for inflation or anything.
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Unless someone else beats me to it, I should be able to post that tomorrow night. I'm going to be a bit tied up until then.
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Originally Posted by Leandro
Um, Optical: that graph is the only place in the report where COH is directly named. There's no other context directly related to COH to find in that report.
Moving on: in this post from January of this year, Arcanaville posted a table with the numbers converted to USD based on the exchange rate at the time of the report. I'm going to PM her and see if she can post an updated version with a pretty graph. |
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How small CoH is in proportion to other NCSoft properties is almost irrelevant. What's pertinent is whether CoH is profitable. As long as it's profitable, it'll probably survive -- either at NCSoft or somewhere else. Businesses generally don't randomly shutdown profitable enterprises just because they're small.|
Originally Posted by Dysmal
CoX has always been a small part of NCSoft's over all revenue picture. As long as it isn't an "Auto Assault" small size of the picture, there are no worries.
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$5 million is far from chicken feed, anyway. The fact that NCSoft's other properties dwarf that number is a good thing for CoH, unless of course those gross revenue numbers hide truly immense offsetting costs.
Which seems doubtful.
Seems CoH is holding its own in the recession. Always good to hear.
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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze
Nice build
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Out of curiosity what quarter did the preorder for GR start. Maybe it was a different name then preorder but I spent money and got to play Dual Pistols early. Several other people did as well. Was that purchase counted towards Q3 or Q4 sales?
Discuss.