The Longest Wait

I still find it unlikely that any decline in CoH/V subscriptions would have caused NCSoft to stop publishing those numbers for all of their games. We were never in the same ballpark as Lineage in terms of subscriptions, after all.

That's the second time you've said basically that everyone is just guessing, then turned around and tried to imply that the prior subscription numbers vaguely support the contention that the subscription numbers are most likely falling rapidly.

So lets see what those numbers actually say, shall we:


Technically, as far as I know NCSoft has never released raw subscriber data, only monthly access data. But assuming monthly access numbers are a consistent proxy for subscriber numbers, here are the access numbers as reported:

There's no point in interpolating the data prior to March 2006 because its a shotgun pattern. From March 2006 to September 2008, linear projection would estimate the current subscriber numbers at about 101,060. Logarithmic projection estimates 112878 subscribers. Normalized logarithmic projection estimates 124,520 subscribers. Linear projection based solely on last eight quarters reported estimates 109,927 subscribers.


The average quarterly drop reported in each quarter relative to the previous quarter is:

Historically, the June reporting quarter is the best (it averages a net gain of subcribers for the reporting years 2005-2008) and September is the worst (averaging twice the subscriber loss as the reporting quarters of December and March).

Extrapolating 50% of the September drop into all five quarters from December 2008 to December 2009 generates a projected realistic worst-case subscriber floor based solely on extrapolation of 94,717 subscribers.

Historical guidence therefore suggests a current subscriber level between approximately 95,000 and 125,000 subscribers, assuming no development between September 2008 and December 2009 served to reverse (or accelerate) the projected trends.


If subscriber drop-off was accelerating from the September 2008 reported number, our subscriber levels would be below 60,000 subscribers, and dropping at a rate sufficiently high there would be practically no reason to release Going Rogue at all.


If your estimate of 70,000 to 80,000 subscribers were correct, it would mean that from September 2008 to about now we've been losing between nine and eleven thousand subscribers net a quarter. There has never been a rolling four quarter period where the game has sustained that level of subscriber loss in all of the reported data, so that would be an extrapolation significantly outside what the data suggests is likely.


Looking at the Q3 2009 report, there's one other thing I noticed. In the sales breakdown, it says CoH/V is "5471" (out of 153,260) but the chart says the units are in millions of korean won. When I do the reverse calculation based on today's exchange rate, I get $4,803,756.57. Now, that can't be box sales, so that's actually very likely the total revenue for box sales, subscriptions, and value packs. If that's true, then if box sales and value packs are a relatively low percentage of the total revenue, that number is 1.6 million a month, and at $15 per month it represents 106,750 subscribers. If the average subscriber is on a 3 month plan at $14 per month, it represents 114,375 subscribers. If 30% of all subscribers bought one $10 value pack during that quarter (which seems like a high estimate) that number implies about 106,750 subscribers. If we had a large amount of turnover, say 20% turnover in the quarter, and essentially about 20% of the subscribers had to pay about $30 on average to buy the game on top of that then that value implies 94,191 subscribers.

I haven't done a complete analysis of all of their released financial data, so I cannot yet be certain these assumptions are completely valid, but its an amazing coincidence that those numbers match almost precisely the extrapolation numbers from the older subscription data, if it is a coincidence.


Of course, this is all just a guess.

And you find my post hillarious??? Half of it was quoting you, so I guess I have to agree, a laugh riot! But seriously, there are those who find this game a way to relax and a frequent means of creative expression, sadly we must share the same cyberspace with those who are here to simply chew through content, get board, and ***** about it on the boards. And let me get this straight, you are actually doing this between two games at the same time??? Really? Are you sure you actually get out much? How can one person have the time to go threw ALL the content of multiple MMOs and then have enough time to hang around here to complain, and still find the time to have an actual life. I guess I really am just a casual player.

I don't think you are actually understanding what I am typing. You are bringing your own angst into what I am saying and then diluting what I say to meet your expectations. Sadly.

I come to the boards waiting for information. Simple. And when they just leave us in the dark... and they want us, same people to shell out additional money for what they are working on... I find it counter productive. I do however enjoy reading people ***** and moan about my posts... complaining about complainers is popular on this forum. lol

I had to look back up a few lines, to remind myself it was Arcanaville posting. Of COURSE I wasn't going to understand the higher functions of that mathematical mind
Seriously...wish I could hit my old maths teacher with that, make him cry, the old creep >_<

Originally Posted by Zwillinger GG, I would tell you that "I am killing you with my mind", but I couldn't find an emoticon to properly express my sentiment.

Originally Posted by Captain_Photon NOTE: The Incarnate System is basically farming for IOs on a larger scale, and with more obtrusive lore.

I see. We're all stupid or deluded, but you're the font of wisdom?

I quote Dr. McCoy to Mr. Spock.
"He means that he has more confidence in your guesses than in most peoples 'facts'."

I sort of dread the pineapple option. I mean, once he uses that there's no going back. And then how will Arcanaville respond? I mean, what can she do to refute the pineapple?

I'll tell you:

NOTHING

coldmed is special, but very honest. He carefully selected his name to reflect his most obvious characteristics. However, i would like to point out that there are coldmeds with non-drowsy formulas, and not everyone ingests at least twice the maximum dosage as a matter of course.

It's funny to contrast coldmed's posts, as a presumably native English writer, with those of Samuel Tow, who writes English as a second language. Samuel's posts are well-written, both in terms of literacy and clarity of ideas. coldmed, at best, tends to be incoherent in his posting of exaggerations, opinions stated as facts and provably incorrect "facts".

(Not trying to drag Sam into this, it's just that he comes most readily to mind as someone who is not a native speaker of English who still communicates very effectively in English.)

As far as publicity and marketing and dev communication goes: States was prone to posting whatever came into his mind and making promises that required extremely contorted logic to accept when they didn't turn out to be vapor. This also irrelevant to what information is released by marketing, especially on the Going Rogue site, which does not appear to have been updated since shortly after it was put up. Honestly it seems that there's been very little marketing activity since the Architect Edition campaign; both within the playerbase community, and among gamers in general. i hope this changes soon. Even adding a short video clip of the Hero Con Dual Pistols demo to the GR site would be nice as a bare minimum.

REFUTED

Actually, I think this is a more apt description of coldmed, with a pinch of this and that.

So you are paying and a retained loyal customer then ?

You supported precisely what I said in that first quote, though the drop in subscriptions (always derived from the monthly access numbers, a big duh) was actually over ten thousand.
So what's your point, you trotted these numbers out to put someone in their place, and ended up illustrating their position.


Yes math is always infallible, just ask the University of East Anglia.



It could be, but I'm sure you wouldn't bet your career on it.


I don't recall the second "great depression" happening during the games prior quarters. Let's assume that had no sudden unexpected effect on peoples expendable income, and say you're right, as always.



Any guesstimates by players on low subscription numbers are purely anecdotal, unless they work in accounting at NCSoft.
70, 80, 90,000 current active subscribers, I don't know factually.
But many are experiencing light activity on their servers.


2008 Dec no more reporting
2009 Mar no more reporting
2009 Jun no more reporting
2009 Sep no more reporting
2009 Dec no more reporting

Yes, it is.

EVE online is the name of the 'horrid space one'. My brother loves it, indeed wont re-up to COH to keep playing it. I loathe it.

Inventions ? or Day jobs ? or both in a way ?

No, not that, although that is probably not generating as much concern as you might expect. No, really this:

If you weren't playing before, and you have no intention of playing in the future, why would you spend money to move your characters around to other servers you're not planning on logging into? That seems rather weird.

$15 to Paragon Studios is $15 to future development. I don't especially care about how daft a rationale is behind it.

My point is that continuously mentioning the drop in subscribers in the last reporting quarter before they stopped reporting access numbers is intellectually dishonest. You can't have it both ways: you can't keep saying "they stopped reporting so everyone is guessing" and then in the same post "but nod nod, we all know what it means when there's a big drop and then they stop reporting, wink wink."

You want to guess wildly, that's fine. You want to play games with numbers, I can swing that bat. I can also play my amazing command of color demonstrates my superior intellect if you prefer.

But the tactic of attempting to be right by simply saying everyone else can't be sure they aren't wrong, is older than dirt and just as interesting.

Actually, the concerned have more behind their argument than the co* defenders - if population was steady or increasing, I doubt they'd be hiding the numbers with so many of their customers concerned about said situation.

And the reason they're losing customers is in large part due to long delays between updates, something that at one point the devs claimed they were trying to move away from, by having more frequent updates, and something they should be able to move away from with a supposedly larger workforce. Then take into account we're looking at a delay to GR, and that GR is a paid expansion - how long before we get the next free issue that has come with the monthly fee since the games inception? The paid costume packs don't cut it, nor do the less than intensive holiday events we've seen. Didn't the devs say they devloped AE so their own people could put together story arcs and such easier? So why not release some new arcs and tf's every so often to keep things fresh?

Bottom line is, if their new plan is to release new stuff only twice a year, and most of the releases are paid expansions and packs, then this game is in serious trouble (though they should retain about 20 loyal defenders regardless of what they do... lol). And if this is the case, I'm very disappointed because this is the best game I've ever played, and after seeing how weak CO turned out, co* has a lot of potential to stick around despite new competition, if done right.

Ah ha! At last I have found the source of your unnatural number-crunching power!

and again, the chance in reporting has more to do with Lineage, LII and AION than with COX. Previously ,NCsoft gave far more information than their competitors, now they give broadly equivalent.

There was no shadow boxing in my reply, very simply:
You supported exactly what I said, even an average black man from Bensonhurst can see that.


And you skipped over any of the ramifications brought on by the second worst financial crisis in US history, which I alluded to as a possible factor in subscription numbers from Sept 08 on.


September 08 (the last month the access numbers were reported) alone saw the collapse of the one hundred+ year old securities firm Lehman Brothers, the sale of Merrill Lynch, and the bailout of AIG to avoid bankruptcy.

That one quarter (sep-dec 08), without any of 2009s continuing declines, saw staggering job losses of 400,000+, 300,000+ and 500,000+ (sept-nov respectively).


In short, the worst wave of bankruptcies, job losses and wealth destruction any citizen under 90 has ever experienced.
Did you factor any of that into your equations my dear?


Length of time between updates, horrible marketing, and a direct (though awful) mmo competitor aside, sudden historic constraints on expendable income in the North American market will have effected this companies bottom line.


To what degree? I don't know, but what players are seeing on their servers is at least tangible anecdotal evidence of something other then frenzied activity.