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See, its easy.
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Originally Posted by Tank_Washington
I don't know
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My wife agrees with you. |
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So...|
Originally Posted by Tank_Washington
In short, the worst wave of bankruptcies, job losses and wealth destruction any citizen under 90 has ever experienced. |
you really just answered you're own query? That the reason there probably HAS been a decrease in sub numbers. Hell, I'm not saying we haven't lost some people. But I think it's being blown way out of proportion.
"Ohmagawd theres a few less people THE GAME IS GONNA END!!"
No, it's very unlikely for that to happen. CityOf seems stable enough, I know I've certainly seen a (percieved) increase in people on Union where I play (lurk) when issues come out. Then maybe a slight drop off and settlance. (Is that a word? It should be.)
As soon as the Global F-up...woops, sorry, Economic downturn corrects itself, people will have more money to spend on stuff other than getting from one day to the next, kids will have more allowance leeway to get back on games, etc, etc, alea jacta est.
So, yes. Numbers probably are down a bit. Is that going to kill the game? No, probably not.
YOMV
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Originally Posted by Zwillinger
GG, I would tell you that "I am killing you with my mind", but I couldn't find an emoticon to properly express my sentiment.
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Originally Posted by Captain_Photon
NOTE: The Incarnate System is basically farming for IOs on a larger scale, and with more obtrusive lore.
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Chart courtesy of TonyV
http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showt...=1#post2525219
As anyone can see we are experiencing nothing more than the usual ebb and flow of a successful game. There's no hemorrhaging of subscriptions.
I would put money down that CO is hemorrhaging subscribers.
Have you seen their forums? Geeze.
15 fanboi's versus Everyone else.
:edit:
and I mean... half of the everyone else was a diehard fanboi less than 2 months ago...
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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
Chart courtesy of TonyV
http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showt...=1#post2525219 As anyone can see we are experiencing nothing more than the usual ebb and flow of a successful game. There's no hemorrhaging of subscriptions. |
The playoffs are underway and honestly parsing the reduced quarterly information to try and "maybe" "possibly" "I think" "probably" surmise the games subscription health is uninteresting and fruitless.
But in making that graph your friend believes that sales trump subscription numbers, which is a fallacy.
There's no model for a five year old mmo which relies on new sales over steady monthly subscriptions. None, that I'm aware of.
He also doesn't even touch the meandering exchange rate for the won, which has been a rollercoaster the past year and a half, hitting an abysmal 1,500 to the US dollar around Feb 09.
That would be like moving to Argentina with 30K US and feeling like you walked into Bill Gates pin number, in other wards it can inflate/deflate figures wildly.
NCSoft stopped reporting monthly access numbers, maybe because of lowering subscription numbers, or to keep that information from their new competitor, or, whatever.
That was the accurate way of knowing the actual number of subs month over month.
But hell, grab a beer and watch the Eagles get the feathers handed to them.
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Originally Posted by Tank_Washington
The playoffs are underway and honestly parsing the reduced quarterly information to try and "maybe" "possibly" "I think" "probably" surmise the games subscription health is uninteresting and fruitless.
But in making that graph your friend believes that sales trump subscription numbers, which is a fallacy. There's no model for a five year old mmo which relies on new sales over steady monthly subscriptions. None, that I'm aware of. He also doesn't even touch the meandering exchange rate for the won, which has been a rollercoaster the past year and a half, hitting an abysmal 1,500 to the US dollar around Feb 09. That would be like moving to Argentina with 30K US and feeling like you walked into Bill Gates pin number, in other wards it can inflate/deflate figures wildly. NCSoft stopped reporting monthly access numbers, maybe because of lowering subscription numbers, or to keep that information from their new competitor, or, whatever. That was the accurate way of knowing the actual number of subs month over month. But hell, grab a beer and watch the Eagles get the feathers handed to them. |
See. Neither I nor TonyV double posted. I also provided the link to TonyV's thread for anyone wishing to read TonyV's post, and I stand by my statement that all we are currently seeing is the normal ebb and flow of our gamer population and not the uncontrollable hemorrhaging some people like to claim is occuring.
What I find interesting is that the population did decline when Burning Crusade and Champions released, but INCREASED when Wrath of the Lich King released!
to 
TO THE END!Villains are those who dedicate their lives to causing mayhem. Villians are people from the planet Villia!
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Same here |
Originally Posted by Obscure Blade
Well, I only log in to play. I see plenty of people playing.
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@Golden Girl
City of Heroes comics and artwork
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According to? You? Subscription numbers are more important than the bottom line?|
Originally Posted by Tank_Washington
But in making that graph your friend believes that sales trump subscription numbers, which is a fallacy.
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| There's no model for a five year old mmo which relies on new sales over steady monthly subscriptions. None, that I'm aware of. |
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
As someone who plays every day I can tell you that the server I play on is a lot less active than it was six months back. My global list, which is quite extensive is way down on active players and I've had a number of people in game make similar observations.
I am more than willing to accept that there may be a lot of people who are subscribed but not playing. That to me indicates they are bored with the game, and if GR - when it eventually arrives - fails to live up to the already heavy burden of expectation placed on it, then the game is in serious trouble. Those players who are not in love with the game will rinse through the content and move on to the next one. There'll be a sudden flurry of activity and then boom back to current user levels.
One thing that people have also neglected to take into account - which I feel is significant in this subject, is that GR is a paid expansion. So whether or not 224 days or 226, some people won't be getting the update. For them, the wait between the last Issue and the next will be even longer.
Thelonious Monk
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Originally Posted by Scarlet Shocker
As someone who plays every day I can tell you that the server I play on is a lot less active than it was six months back. My global list, which is quite extensive is way down on active players and I've had a number of people in game make similar observations.
I am more than willing to accept that there may be a lot of people who are subscribed but not playing. That to me indicates they are bored with the game, and if GR - when it eventually arrives - fails to live up to the already heavy burden of expectation placed on it, then the game is in serious trouble. Those players who are not in love with the game will rinse through the content and move on to the next one. There'll be a sudden flurry of activity and then boom back to current user levels. |
I won't deny that some people play multiple games because they get bored. But it's also true that other people play multiple games because they have broad interests, and they cycle thru them.
Personally my tastes in computer games are as varied as my tastes in RPG's, CCG's, board games, and miniature games. Sometimes my friends and I play one thing for months and sometimes we change every week, but my account here has never been inactive in 66 months, and this is the only MMO I have multiple accounts with. I also know I'm not the only person here that does this.
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| One thing that people have also neglected to take into account - which I feel is significant in this subject, is that GR is a paid expansion. So whether or not 224 days or 226, some people won't be getting the update. For them, the wait between the last Issue and the next will be even longer. |
You're right some people won't buy GR, but it's also true that many players that have multiple accounts will be buying several copies of GR for each of their accounts. We have no way of predicting if those two groups will cancel each other out, or if one will be greater than the other.
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Don't question the way this "math" works, just believe it as gospel!!! |
Originally Posted by Obsidius
At this rate of hemorrhage, I'm expecting the game to hit a negative number of subscribers any month now.
Don't ask me how; it's just the way the math works with the current number of subs minus the increasing amount of "hemorrhaging". I'm sure you'll come to the same conclusion once you crunch the numbers as well Arcanaville |
Im just a caveman that doesn't understand this "math" so I just blindly follow it!!
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I see what you did there |
Originally Posted by Mr_Zek
Don't question the way this "math" works, just believe it as gospel!!!
Im just a caveman that doesn't understand this "math" so I just blindly follow it!! |
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Sales *are* primarily subscription revenue in the reported numbers, unless you believe we've been selling a couple hundred thousand boxes a quarter, in which case new sales *would* be trumping our subscription numbers.|
Originally Posted by Tank_Washington
But in making that graph your friend believes that sales trump subscription numbers, which is a fallacy.
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For some reason more than one person has misinterpreted those numbers to mean "number of units" like "5000 box sales" when they are actually millions of Won, or very roughly thousands of dollars. Those numebrs are about five million dollars in revenue a quarter, which is probably not a quarter million copies of Good vs Evil going out the door.
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NCSoft stopped reporting monthly access numbers, maybe because of lowering subscription numbers, or to keep that information from their new competitor, or, whatever. That was the accurate way of knowing the actual number of subs month over month. |
Those numbers are only good to compare two relative periods where the average login-frequency of the average player is similar. And its clear that the numbers encapsulate times when it has not been.
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In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
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It would be nice if they would release some news or update the GR website, heck it would even be nice if there was an official HeroCon site that people could go to to hear the various news etc instead of all this hearsay.
I recall when the game first came out, we were promised quarterly updates, I can understand how a business model would have to change due to external forces like the economy, staffing, technology etc, but IMO they need to put out a schedule of updates and adhere to it as close as possible. These updates are supposed to be like comic book issues, I can not recall every hearing of a comic book issue being substantially delayed. As someone that works in IT I understand that projects fall behind sometimes, but when it's time for a deadline we work and we push in order to make it. I can't tell you how many times I've worked 18+ hours in a row to get things done.
Because of the holidays and Football, I for one have not been stressing over the fact that we aren't getting an update in over 6 months, however; I can feel my patience waining
With that said I'm still giving them the benefit of the doubt and am refraining from hitting that cancel button because I know even if the CoH team drops the ball from time to time, they usually recover and score.
But Football season is ending soon...
Who do I have to *&^% around here to get more Targeted AoE recipes added?
Arc Name: Tsoo In Love
Arc ID: 413575
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In the 1990s, Image was notorious for delayed books. The disease has spread to both Marvel and DC in the last decade. Just about every year, you will find at least one big ticket project that has a delay of at least a couple of months from each of them. The most notorious example that comes to mind is Ultimate Wolverine vs. Hulk, which had a three year delay between issues in the middle, no joke.
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Originally Posted by EnigmaBlack
These updates are supposed to be like comic book issues, I can not recall every hearing of a comic book issue being substantially delayed.
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"I wish my life was a non-stop Hollywood movie show,
A fantasy world of celluloid villains and heroes."
You supported exactly what I said, even an average black man from Bensonhurst can see that.
And you skipped over any of the ramifications brought on by the second worst financial crisis in US history, which I alluded to as a possible factor in subscription numbers from Sept 08 on.
September 08 (the last month the access numbers were reported) alone saw the collapse of the one hundred+ year old securities firm Lehman Brothers, the sale of Merrill Lynch, and the bailout of AIG to avoid bankruptcy.
That one quarter (sep-dec 08), without any of 2009s continuing declines, saw staggering job losses of 400,000+, 300,000+ and 500,000+ (sept-nov respectively).
In short, the worst wave of bankruptcies, job losses and wealth destruction any citizen under 90 has ever experienced.
Did you factor any of that into your equations my dear?
Length of time between updates, horrible marketing, and a direct (though awful) mmo competitor aside, sudden historic constraints on expendable income in the North American market will have effected this companies bottom line.
To what degree? I don't know, but what players are seeing on their servers is at least tangible anecdotal evidence of something other then frenzied activity.
People are now more concerned about getting the most for their money and so they are more likely to be willing to spend $15. and recieve a full months entertainment playing CoH than they are to spend that same amount for 2 hours in a movie theatre.
Congrats on proving the game will be more popular than ever!