Did we miss the signs of the apacolypse?
By
8_Ball,
Posted on: 2012-10-09 14:58 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
NCsoft dropped the bomb on Paragon pretty suddenly. If Paragon knew CoH was gonna cave, or if there were any legit warning signs, they wouldn't have worked on I24 and planned ahead as many issues as they did.
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Agreed.
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Originally Posted by Xzero45
NCsoft dropped the bomb on Paragon pretty suddenly. If Paragon knew CoH was gonna cave, or if there were any legit warning signs, they wouldn't have worked on I24 and planned ahead as many issues as they did.
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The development team and this community deserved better than this from NC Soft. Best wishes on your search.
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In terms of planning ahead, I would have been surprised if they *hadn't* planned up to at least 2 issues ahead ie if you are about to publish I23, you should already have *some* work done on I24, and already be laying out I25 in terms of *structure*.|
Originally Posted by Xzero45
NCsoft dropped the bomb on Paragon pretty suddenly. If Paragon knew CoH was gonna cave, or if there were any legit warning signs, they wouldn't have worked on I24 and planned ahead as many issues as they did.
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Obviously, depending on what resources you have to hand, you might even be able to stretch out a bit more. The most important thing though is to keep *all* your staff active at all times. Sure, if you have finished your piece and you cannot progress till other stuff gets completed.
I do believe that Positron said at one point in an interview (or maybe it was a comment from Rockjaw *shrugs* I forget...), and that this was normal for them to plan well in advance what they were going to be doing, so that when they had "spare time" they could at least make *some* progress on that.
I can't remember where I read it now, but Paragon had started hiring again about a week before the news came down. Furthermore, War Witch is quoted as saying "We were doing so WELL!" in response to the news.
If there were signs, Paragon missed them, too.
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I am pretty sure they said point blank they were caught just as unaware as the player base.
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Originally Posted by Thunder Knight
I can't remember where I read it now, but Paragon had started hiring again about a week before the news came down. Furthermore, War Witch is quoted as saying "We were doing so WELL!" in response to the news.
If there were signs, Paragon missed them, too. |
The development team and this community deserved better than this from NC Soft. Best wishes on your search.
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Look at the first graph Father Xmas posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showt...68#post4410268|
Originally Posted by Thunder Knight
I can't remember where I read it now, but Paragon had started hiring again about a week before the news came down. Furthermore, War Witch is quoted as saying "We were doing so WELL!" in response to the news.
If there were signs, Paragon missed them, too. |
The blue line is CoH revenue for the trailing 4 quarters.
If you can look at the blue line and think that the business was going well, I don't know what else to tell you.
This is why I've said repeatedly that if the Paragoners were caught by surprise, then they weren't paying attention to how their business was going. Neither GR nor Freedom were able to stop the decline. The only thing that they really had going for them was the secret project.
Well op if you feel that way put yourself in Mr Brian Clayton's shoes. I'd love to buy that guy several adult beverages of his choice to get the straight scoop on: (a) What he knew about the demise of Paragon Studios and when (it was afterall his job to be the executive level interface between PS and NCSoft), (b) What was the "secret project" and, more importantly to me anyway, given the resource commitment to that project was it a failed attempt at bringing about the studio's "salvation"? and (c) What was his plan/strategy for CoH during post August 31 "negotiations".
I won't pretend that we will ever get the definitive answers to the above. And the not knowing clouds somewhat the business rationale behind NCSoft's decision.
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Yeah it seemed they were caught off guard as much as the players.
There might have been signs but they might have been subtle. Prior to the announcement, not many players seemed to pay attention to the inner workings and financial status of the game or else they would have seen the slipping revenue and probably would of said something. Well that is unless someone did and was called a troll for it back then and they just dropped it.
I know in game many people was saying that they noticed the player base starting to thin out, and rumors of the game not making as much money as they used to, but it was dismissed quickly as mere heresy and someone crying "DOOM!!" again. Man, if there was anytime to have listen to them, that would of been the time and then maybe something could of been done quickly and easier to grow the player base again and bring revenue back up.
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
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I think it's worth mentioning that "going well" is often defined in terms of what the bosses tell you, and what they are asking for, and their attitudes toward your work. We don't know what NCSoft was emphasizing in the goals set for the studio. It isn't always just cash, particularly if you just made a shift to an untested revenue model a year earlier. Depending on how high up the decision was made, even the GM's boss may not have known it was coming. I've seen people hired on the day regional closings were announced, and even once, the contract signed for a $4mil office renovation. The left hand and the right hand, on occasion, aren't even connected to the same body.
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Originally Posted by Brillig
Look at the first graph Father Xmas posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showt...68#post4410268
The blue line is CoH revenue for the trailing 4 quarters. If you can look at the blue line and think that the business was going well, I don't know what else to tell you. This is why I've said repeatedly that if the Paragoners were caught by surprise, then they weren't paying attention to how their business was going. Neither GR nor Freedom were able to stop the decline. The only thing that they really had going for them was the secret project. |
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The development team and this community deserved better than this from NC Soft. Best wishes on your search.
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I always looked at the earnings and thought they need to get a little sustained growth going or its maintenance mode here we come. It's a business you invest in a project you expect a return. |
Originally Posted by Brillig
Look at the first graph Father Xmas posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showt...68#post4410268
The blue line is CoH revenue for the trailing 4 quarters. If you can look at the blue line and think that the business was going well, I don't know what else to tell you. This is why I've said repeatedly that if the Paragoners were caught by surprise, then they weren't paying attention to how their business was going. Neither GR nor Freedom were able to stop the decline. The only thing that they really had going for them was the secret project. |
I have no doubt that it came as a complete shock to paragon studios. After the refunds severance packages and such this is going to be a pretty costly move for NCsoft when the alternative was to have the game go on indefinitely minmally staffed but making money.
I thought something was up when all the Kirby dots codes became available. I was expecting more of a Issue 24 will be the last while dev team gets trimmed back, by a lot. Not what happened, didn't expect that.
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i think this is something that i thought was out of the ordinary too, as that was WAY too many codes and in no sort of "fun" fashion such as the codes hidden on the pictures, ect|
Originally Posted by Father Xmas
I thought something was up when all the Kirby dots codes became available. I was expecting more of a Issue 24 will be the last while dev team gets trimmed back, by a lot. Not what happened, didn't expect that.
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i also was shocked at what happened though
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This is the only thing that I can think of that may have pointed to the game being shut down, but it at least made SOME sense--the amount of people playing the game who spoke only German or French were minuscule.|
Originally Posted by cohRock
Missed portents?
<snip> 2) About six months ago, official foreign language was dropped, both in the forums and on the Zukunft and Vigilance servers as well. Since I speak neither German nor French, I felt slightly bad for those players, but I didn't think it was something that would affect me. |
Like you, OP, I also felt bad for them losing their native language, but I thought it was going to lead to more focused and faster releases in general.
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Originally Posted by Nethergoat
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And will no doubt continue to do so until November 30th, if not beyond.
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Originally Posted by Brillig
This is why I've said repeatedly
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The distinct lack of South American camelids led to us being completely blindsided by the Alpacalypse.
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Anyone else get to that point where they feel like they have a lot to say on a given topic but can't bring themselves to bother because it feels too much like speaking ill of the dead for no other reason but spite?
Be well, people of CoH.
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| But we were doing so well |
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| The game is healthy for an 8 year old MMO |
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| The game was having a resurgence |
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| That's what happens in every MMO |
It's very easy to miss that which was not visible.
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See, that's the biggest thing we were missing: Alpaca Mastermind.
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Originally Posted by Sailboat
The distinct lack of South American camelids led to us being completely blindsided by the Alpacalypse.
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Very few things are visible if you refuse to open your eyes.
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Originally Posted by Dragon_Shadow
It's very easy to miss that which was not visible.
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Don't be a nutter. I was one of the most (read only) critical people of the game direction and the worst, I thought would happen would be a permanent maintenance mode with maybe an issue or 2 per year of things that were trivial to add. |
Originally Posted by Brillig
Very few things are visible if you refuse to open your eyes.
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I mean it's a baffling move by ncsoft. They are tossing out $10 mil/year in sales. At the very least they should have been able to convert that into several million/year in profit by just letting people go.
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hmmm you seem to believe I was...not looking at something that was in plain and obvious sight right?|
Originally Posted by Brillig
Very few things are visible if you refuse to open your eyes.
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From the view of those of us playing the game there was very little to indicate our game, let alone the studio developing for the game, was anywhere near the chopping block. No cut back in development resources that we could see. Continued hiring for the studio as far as we could tell. Constant pleasure and happiness from those working on the game glad to be bringing us new and exciting stuff. Obviously we should have been expecting the game to be cut off, right?
Yes people quoting the numbers are correct....less money was coming in compared to earlier in the game's lifespan. I do believe that is a rather common occurance in all games though...as the game goes on people leave to try other things. It has even happened to the juggernaut of the MMO world. The only possible indication I might have seen that said CoH was going away was being unable to get a Time Card from Gamestop in mid-August...and that's happened before so I didn't really think anything of it.
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There are a couple of people here now playing the Nostradamus role, claiming to have predicted the downfall etc... |
Originally Posted by Dragon_Shadow
hmmm you seem to believe I was...not looking at something that was in plain and obvious sight right?
From the view of those of us playing the game there was very little to indicate our game, let alone the studio developing for the game, was anywhere near the chopping block. No cut back in development resources that we could see. Continued hiring for the studio as far as we could tell. Constant pleasure and happiness from those working on the game glad to be bringing us new and exciting stuff. Obviously we should have been expecting the game to be cut off, right? Yes people quoting the numbers are correct....less money was coming in compared to earlier in the game's lifespan. I do believe that is a rather common occurance in all games though...as the game goes on people leave to try other things. It has even happened to the juggernaut of the MMO world. The only possible indication I might have seen that said CoH was going away was being unable to get a Time Card from Gamestop in mid-August...and that's happened before so I didn't really think anything of it. |
It like the 4tran guy that was going around a lot game forums predicting doom for the game, only so he could come back eight years later and say I told you so.....Pfft.
The development team and this community deserved better than this from NC Soft. Best wishes on your search.
Missed portents?
1) About a year ago, the Test Server was wiped. Not in itself evil; we always knew that the devs reserved the right to wipe or even shut down the test server at any time. But after six years of unofficial support for the tester community, all characters were wiped. No warning nor explanation was given. Everyone, including many advanced native characters were just gone one day. Note that the test server had been overwritten before; the devs would announce that a backup would be made, a copy of Freedom (?) would replace it, and when the testing was over, the actual test characters would be restored. Not this time.
2) About six months ago, official foreign language was dropped, both in the forums and on the Zukunft and Vigilance servers as well. Since I speak neither German nor French, I felt slightly bad for those players, but I didn't think it was something that would affect me.
3) Two days before the closure announcement, Zwill held his final coffee talk ( http://www.twitch.tv/paragonstudios/b/330380418 ) as a Paragon Studios employee. It started late, was very disorganized, and covered nothing very interesting. While they joked about upcoming "secret projects", I wonder now if they sensed the reaper.
That all said, I still hope that somehow City of Heroes continues. Still, maybe I wasn't listening as well as I should have been.
-- Rich
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