Overwhelming Force drop rates


Athena Six

 

Posted

I'm just putting this out there as data, nothing more. I've got 35 of these items (that I can find, I may have done a couple the first day or on toons I forgot about) so I'd expect 5.83333 of each, if they follow a uniform distribution (I should run 1 more to get an even 6). Here's what I've gotten:

Acc/Dmg 7
Acc/Dmg/End 8
Acc/Dmg/End/Rch 6
Dmg/Proc 4
Dmg/End/Rch 8
End/Rch 4

I found a t-test calculator online which confirms what common sense was telling me, that there's no reason to think the proc drops < 1/6 of the time. I'm just not having "good" luck. Not that's it's bad luck, just not good.

If anyone else has their drop data easily accessible, I think it would be interesting to see, just for science and stuff.

ETA: I'm going to keep updating this as I go.

I have to say, based on continued play and updates below, it's starting to "feel" like the proc drops < 1/6 of the time


Global = Hedgefund (or some derivation thereof)

 

Posted

As of last night:

Acc/Dam - 4
End/Rec - 1
A/D/E - 4
D/E/R - 4
A/D/E/R - 2
KB/KD - 2

The random number generator seemed to hate me the past couple of nights -- I did the Summer Event with the same three characters, two nights in a row. First night: 3 Acc/Dam, one after the other. Second night: 3 Acc/Dam/End -- two back to back, the third several hours later. What are the odds of that, 1 in 216 for each?

Still, based on MY statistically insignificant sample size, I'm thinking "random is random."


"But it wasn't anything some purples and oranges and lots of screaming in fear couldn't handle." -- Werner

30 level 50's: 12 scrappers, 7 other random melee types, 11 blaster/blapper/support squishies, two accounts, and a TON of altitis since 4/28/04

 

Posted

i would have to count up the 80 or so enhances ive gotten so far to add to this lol

all i care about are the procs really, and im currently up to about 10 of those so far, the others are a menagerie of the other 5 enhances in the set


 

Posted

OK. I did this 100 times. Up until yesterday the end/recharge IO was very rare. Ofcourse the proc was rare. This is what Ive gotten.

A/D 20
A/D/E 17
A/D/E/R 19
Proc 11
D/E/R 15
E/R 18

I'd say half the IO's Ive gotten the past 2 days have been End/Recharge.


Playing on Freedom

 

Posted

Here's the cumulative results thus far for 164 samples:



Code:
Acc/Dmg		32	0.195121951
Acc/Dmg/End	30	0.182926829
Acc/Dmg/End/Rch	29	0.176829268
Dmg/Proc		17	0.103658537
Dmg/End/Rch	29	0.176829268
End/Rch		27	0.164634146
Hmmmm...

I ran a Chi squared test I found online still that says it's a statistically insignificant difference. So, even though it "feels" like it's < 1/6, there's just not enough data yet to make the claim.

Any further data would be helpful, thank you very much to those that have shared thus far.


Global = Hedgefund (or some derivation thereof)

 

Posted

I ran about 40 and got what i wanted and hoarding them


The end/rech was not dropped for me in 40 runs.


 

Posted

I don't have many runs, but this is what I got so far:

Acc/Dam x1
Acc/Dam/End x2
Acc/Dam/End/Rech x1
Chance for KD x2
Dam/End/Rech x1
End/Rech x1


Arc#314490: Zombie Ninja Pirates!
Defiant @Grouchybeast
Death is part of my attack chain.

 

Posted

Dam / End / Rech - 5
Acc / Dam - 7
Acc/ Dam / End - 8
Dam / Proc - 6
End / Rech - 8
Acc / Dam / End / Rech - 4

I'd like to note that I'm pretty sure the proc did *not* drop in the first 15 (maybe like the 18th time...), which means that it's probably been like 6 out of the last 20 I've gotten it.


@Texarkana
@Thexder

 

Posted

Acc/Dam 4
A/D/E 1
A/D/E/R 3
KB2KD 8
E/R 1

How long is this suppose to last anyway?


 

Posted

Acc/Dmg 0
Acc/Dmg/End 12
Acc/Dmg/End/Rch 0
Dmg/Proc 1
Dmg/End/Rch 1
End/Rch 0

Screw this. Off to the market I go.


The Bacon Compels You.

 

Posted

Picked up tonight

Dam / End / Rech - 1
Acc / Dam - 1


@Texarkana
@Thexder

 

Posted

According to my chatlogs,

Acc/Dmg: 6
Acc/Dmg/End: 8
Acc/Dmg/End/Rch: 2
Dmg/Proc: 1
Dmg/End/Rch: 2
End/Rch: 1

, which is worrying because a) I distinctly recall getting two procs, and b) I can't find the one that my logs agree I got.


 

Posted

At first, up to about 50 runs, I was getting around 1 in 6. Now it has blown out..about 11% if that


 

Posted

Well it feels a lot less! lol


 

Posted

Updated.

Code:
Acc/Dmg		63	0.19504644
Acc/Dmg/End	69	0.213622291
Acc/Dmg/End/Rch	47	0.145510836
Dmg/Proc		44	0.13622291
Dmg/End/Rch	53	0.164086687
End/Rch		47	0.145510836
Chi-square test results say " By conventional criteria, this difference is considered to be not statistically significant."

I do want to verify with Johnny Kilowatt that he got 12 acc/dmg/end drops, that's fairly remarkable. Just making sure that wasn't a typo. That's like me at the craps table, always managing to somehow hit the point right away (for those that don't know craps - that's not a good thing).

Alpha Six, the summer event lasts throughout July. You've had the best luck for the proc of anyone else in thread, so keep on blockbustering!


Global = Hedgefund (or some derivation thereof)

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deacon_NA View Post
Updated.

Code:
Acc/Dmg		63	0.19504644
Acc/Dmg/End	69	0.213622291
Acc/Dmg/End/Rch	47	0.145510836
Dmg/Proc		44	0.13622291
Dmg/End/Rch	53	0.164086687
End/Rch		47	0.145510836
Chi-square test results say " By conventional criteria, this difference is considered to be not statistically significant."

I do want to verify with Johnny Kilowatt that he got 12 acc/dmg/end drops, that's fairly remarkable. Just making sure that wasn't a typo. That's like me at the craps table, always managing to somehow hit the point right away (for those that don't know craps - that's not a good thing).

Alpha Six, the summer event lasts throughout July. You've had the best luck for the proc of anyone else in thread, so keep on blockbustering!
What was the confidence level?


 

Posted

My numbers:

Acc/Dam - 5
Acc/Dam/End - 9
A/D/E/R - 10
Proc - 6
Dam/End/Rech - 7
End/Rech - 3

End/Rech seems to be hard to acquire for some.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deacon_NA View Post
I do want to verify with Johnny Kilowatt that he got 12 acc/dmg/end drops, that's fairly remarkable. Just making sure that wasn't a typo.
No problem. I did a double check through all my characters (they were spread out over several characters).

Upon closer inspection, one of them was a quad. So only eleven acc/dam/end. Sorry I missed that.


The Bacon Compels You.

 

Posted

My numbers:
A/D - 6
A/D/E - 3
A/D/E/R - 4
Proc - 10
D/E/R - 1
E/R - 5

Apparently, I'm making up for everyone else's missing procs...


 

Posted

Ive run this event about a dozen times the past day and have gotten no procs. Anyone else getting these results?


Playing on Freedom

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wyatt_Earp View Post
My numbers:
A/D - 6
A/D/E - 3
A/D/E/R - 4
Proc - 10
D/E/R - 1
E/R - 5

Apparently, I'm making up for everyone else's missing procs...
You stole mine. I've run this 4 more times since my previous post and still no procs.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkOasis View Post
Ive run this event about a dozen times the past day and have gotten no procs. Anyone else getting these results?
Yes. grrrr......


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