US Space program future?
By
Alpha-One,
Posted on: 2011-07-28 04:51 in Comic and Hero-Villain Culture
NASA has basically been faffing about and retired the shuttle without any definite replacement. Most of the designs i've seen being worked on suggest that they're planning to eventually go back to a more standard style of rocket rather than a spaceplane type of craft.
Edit: A large part of their plan apparently is to start using private launch companies, like SpaceX. This could possibly be a very good thing, hiring private companies to provide lift to orbit.
Dr. Todt's theme.
i make stuff...
Supposedly NASA is working on "new" tech that will replace combustion engines for long distance space flights. According to some rumors the discovery of this tech was the reason we went to Iraq. Conspiracy theorists point to the raiding of the Baghdad Museum as well as the secrecy behind the uncovering of the tomb of Gilgamesh as reasons for their insinuations.
I do know however the James Webb Telescope (Hubble's replacement) is supposed to launch in 2018. I can't wait to see the pictures it sends back! There is also an unmanned asteroid mining spacecraft in the works for 2014 that is supposed to rendezvous with an asteroid in 2020 and bring back samples, some of which scientist believe may be organic. Hopefully whatever they bring back won't kill us. 
Who do I have to *&^% around here to get more Targeted AoE recipes added?
Arc Name: Tsoo In Love
Arc ID: 413575
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For whatever reason, while reading the first part, I envisioned another Indiana Jones movie.
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Originally Posted by EnigmaBlack
Supposedly NASA is working on "new" tech that will replace combustion engines for long distance space flights. According to some rumors the discovery of this tech was the reason we went to Iraq. Conspiracy theorists point to the raiding of the Baghdad Museum as well as the secrecy behind the uncovering of the tomb of Gilgamesh as reasons for their insinuations.
I do know however the James Webb Telescope (Hubble's replacement) is supposed to launch in 2018. I can't wait to see the pictures it sends back! There is also an unmanned asteroid mining spacecraft in the works for 2014 that is supposed to rendezvous with an asteroid in 2020 and bring back samples, some of which scientist believe may be organic. Hopefully whatever they bring back won't kill us. |
I've already forgotten about most of you
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Well, that'd kill me... certainly if it was worse that Crystal Skull.|
Originally Posted by VoodooCompany
For whatever reason, while reading the first part, I envisioned another Indiana Jones movie.
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Was over on the beach at KSC for the STS 135 launch - hugged a couple of nice girl geeks who are amongst the 5,000 losing their gigs the minute that bird touched down.
The "next" thing for NASA is ORION: something that looks suspiciously like an Apollo Command Module that someone found in a cupboard and tarted up a bit. http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/co...ion/index.html
That said, the current faffing in Congress over the US about approving any kind of budget is going to lead to even more savage cuts at NASA. A lot of it's going to have to be picked up by the commercial partnerships. (Nice - just as I might finally get that gig over in SF, the US goes to hell in a handbasket. Still, as long as WholeFoods have good specials on organic canned foods and ethically sourced shotguns, I should be fine.)
The most promising in my eyes are the SNC DreamChaser - which is pretty much a Dinky-sized Shuttle that doesn't need such a large "stack" - and the SpaceX Dragon, which could easily pass for Soyuz' prettier little sister from a distance.
I don't think we're going to have a major advancement in spaceflight without a major advancement in society. But that's just me...
Is it time for the dance of joy yet?
The US space future can be summed up in one word...
Done.
We are more interested in what the latest plastic celebrity is doing as well as grubbing in the dirt than in going to space. If you are looking for any future expansion in that direction, look to the Indians and Chinese, because it sure as hell isn't going to come from us. We had the potential for so much more, but we squandered it on going no farther than LEO for 30 years. When America spends more money on air-conditioning the tents of soldiers than they do on NASA, something is deeply, deeply, wrong.
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Originally Posted by EnigmaBlack
I do know however the James Webb Telescope (Hubble's replacement) is supposed to launch in 2018.
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| On 6 July 2011, the United States House of Representatives' appropriations committee on Commerce, Justice, and Science moved to cancel the James Webb project by proposing an FY2012 budget that removed $1.9bn from NASA's overall budget, of which roughly one quarter was for JWST. This budget proposal was approved by subcommittee vote the following day, but it remains to be seen how the rest of the US House of Representatives and Senate will weigh on on this issue during the ongoing federal budget negotiations. |
Stick a fork in it. We're done in space.
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Not all "organic compounds" have something to do with living or once-living things though. Space apparently is rife with them; for example:|
Originally Posted by EnigmaBlack
There is also an unmanned asteroid mining spacecraft in the works for 2014 that is supposed to rendezvous with an asteroid in 2020 and bring back samples, some of which scientist believe may be organic. Hopefully whatever they bring back won't kill us.
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http://news.discovery.com/space/mete...compounds.html
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It's quite interesting to see a civilization on the path to irrelevance. Of course, it sucks to actually be IN that civilization on its way out.
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Originally Posted by Chaos Creator
I agree with Dark One.
Stick a fork in it. We're done in space. |
i read an article on slashdot recently that the international space station is gonne be de-orbited sometime after 2020, they were just gonna let it crash into the ocean so it doesnt become a giant piece of space junk (original article here)
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Hopi enthusiasts will probably point to that as the fulfillment of the 9th prophecy. So I guess the world won't come to an end next year after all...
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Originally Posted by Necrotech_Master
i read an article on slashdot recently that the international space station is gonne be de-orbited sometime after 2020, they were just gonna let it crash into the ocean so it doesnt become a giant piece of space junk (original article here)
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Who do I have to *&^% around here to get more Targeted AoE recipes added?
Arc Name: Tsoo In Love
Arc ID: 413575
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Oh damn them all to hell! |
Originally Posted by Chaos Creator
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Stick a fork in it. We're done in space. |
If there was one space project that deserves every penny that goes over budget it's that one.
The next step for government space travel is an Electro Magnetic Rail Launcher or a Carbon Nano-fiber elevevator. Both of these have not been tested nor have they been put into prooduction and it is unlikely they will be for a while...
The next step for space travel in general is privatization which is under way, however I don't think it's developing fast enough.
I can help but think this is a rather stupid move in general for our species. We're in 4 crisis in the next hundred years we can see coming
Economic - Let's not discuss that
Energy - Depending on how technology goes this may or may not be an issue. We'll know by 2040 though because if we don't have a solution by then there isn't enough time to integrate it before 2050 and 2050 is pretty much the end of fossil fuels a its current rate of consumption. The lack of fuel will drive war and funny thing rockets aren't powered by fossil fuels so we'll still be able to kill all of us easily but we won't be able to communicate or anything that we're used to any more on a local level.
Global - From global warming, to general pollution, to super volcanoes. There is a lot of stuff like this going on that could easily kick us into the deep end and make the other crisis worse by magnitudes, but generally speaking as long as things progress as they are we should b ok here.
And lastly, the major one, that could or could not happen, but as of right now if it does we're screwed pretty much and that is...
4. The possible Asteroid collision that is possibly an extinction level hit that may occur in 2040s? I believe it's the 2042 but not exactly sure. If this thing gets on a collision course we have no way of diverting it or anything right now.
Rght now it's like being called out to a possible gun duel and obstinately declaring that not only are you getting rid of your gun you are putting an end to bullet manufacturing and the only bullets that will be made from this day forth is those creates by individuals. It doesn't stop the gun duel from happening...it just leaves you defenseless.
I'd rather man kind fix all problems on this Earth before venturing outwards, we might not be as welcome to leave this world as we may think, and yes.... I do know something.
Ignoring anyone is a mistake. You might miss something viral to your cause.
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So, in other words, we never get to leave this planet? Because "all problems on Earth" have existed since man came down out of the trees. It is the height of naivete and foolishness to think we will ever "fix" them all. There's always been poverty, there's always been hunger, there's always been sickness and disease. If people truly thought that way, man would never have left Africa, Columbus and the Vikings would never have left Europe, and the early Americans would never have crossed that land bridge.|
Originally Posted by MrHassenpheffer
I'd rather man kind fix all problems on this Earth before venturing outwards, we might not be as welcome to leave this world as we may think, and yes.... I do know something.
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The only thing that is going to happen if we never venture out is that the Earth will get more crowded, resources will get more scarce, and more people will die in unnecessary wars.
Working towards reducing the above stated things? A laudable and realistic goal.
Only working on those things with myopic vision to the rest of the universe? A horse of a different color..
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If the aliens don't like how we do things they can bite me.
| I'd rather man kind fix all problems on this Earth before venturing outwards, we might not be as welcome to leave this world as we may think, and yes.... I do know something. |
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Kind of like what's happening now, but if we venture into space we can take our seemingly unending appetite for death and destruction on the road! The opportunity to be a cancer on a Universal scale instead of just one here on Earth is too much to pass up!
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Originally Posted by Dark One
The only thing that is going to happen if we never venture out is that the Earth will get more crowded, resources will get more scarce, and more people will die in unnecessary wars.
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Who do I have to *&^% around here to get more Targeted AoE recipes added?
Arc Name: Tsoo In Love
Arc ID: 413575
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The same thing that's next for the rest of the United States government: internal squabbling, Congressional neglect, indifference from the general public, and eventual supersession by foreign private enterprise.
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Originally Posted by Coin
Always been a amateur fan of the space race, trips to orbit, the moon etc, so I know that the Space Shuttles have been decomissioned, and that the Soyuz is the way up there to the ISS now, but I was curious, what's next for NASA?
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Some problems we will not be able to solve by staying on Earth.|
Originally Posted by MrHassenpheffer
I'd rather man kind fix all problems on this Earth before venturing outwards, we might not be as welcome to leave this world as we may think, and yes.... I do know something.
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For example, there's only so much gold on the planet that we can easily get to. From Wikipedia:
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| A total of 165,000 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history, as of 2009.[1] This is roughly equivalent to 5.3 billion troy ounces or, in terms of volume, about 8500 m3, or a cube 20.4 m on a side. The world consumption of new gold produced is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry |
Yeah, we could increase our supply of gold by recycling electronics and melting down our jewelry. But there's still going to be a finite amount of gold. We can either choose to grind our planet into dust trying to get it, or we can go off-planet and mine asteroids for it.
The main problem humanity has is the idea that for economic success we must constantly grow. Economies that do not grow are considered stagnant and in danger of collapse. To increase wealth the population must increase, or your industrial output (and consumption) must increase. Economists say that the 2% growth the United States currently has is "anemic" and disastrous in the long term.
But the earth is finite. There's only so much room for people on the planet, only so much space to grow food, only so many resources. We're at 7 billion now, and will probably hit 10 billion within most of our lifetimes. Are you going to tell everyone on the planet that their economies are all going to have to stop growing, that only a select few can have children, that people will have to submit to euthanasia at age 80 in order to make room for the next generation?
Economies that do the right thing and voluntarily limit their growth will be at a tremendous disadvantage compared to economies that mindlessly expand. The growing economies will be able to crush the static ones in relatively short order. So no country will choose to be the first one to severely limit their own growth, because they know the less disciplined economies will choose to overrun them.
Countries will start wars to maintain their patterns of growth. Climate change will also start having a serious effect on populations in the next few decades, and will force migration from coastal areas, and cause major outbreaks of disease and famine, all of which will result in major wars.
So unless we have some major outlet for economic expansion, and some new supply of resources, and some place to put the pollution that all our industrial activities cause, the pressures of a finite earth will cause catastrophic changes to society. This will likely result in the untimely deaths of billions of people within the next century, ultimately leaving us in some kind of sustainable steady-state economy. Which many economists believe will spell the decline and ultimate doom for mankind. These kinds of collapses have occurred many, many times in the past, so this isn't some kind of idle speculation: all the trees on Rapa Nui (Easter Island) were chopped down and it became overpopulated, the Roman Empire fell for many reasons, several cultures in Central and South America fell, even before the Spaniards came. Many of them were due to overpopulation, climate change or disease, problems which we will soon be facing on a worldwide scale. See Jared Diamond's books for more examples.
Or, we can expand into space, moving the worst polluting processes off planet, getting energy from clean sources (the sun), creating an outlet for new population expansion, and getting access to new mineral resources in the asteroid belt and moons of Earth and other planets.
Getting into space in a big way will not be easy. But it'll be easier than changing human nature.
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Humans will be the perfect mercenaries for any other culture. We will fight anyone or anything, either for money/resources or just the sheer thrill of the fight!|
Originally Posted by EnigmaBlack
Kind of like what's happening now, but if we venture into space we can take our seemingly unending appetite for death and destruction on the road! The opportunity to be a cancer on a Universal scale instead of just one here on Earth is too much to pass up!
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"There is no peace amongst the stars, only an eternity of carnage and slaughter, and the laughter of thirsting gods." A very appropriate quote...
But it should be good for the lulz, after all, can't spell slaughter without laughter...
Perhaps for now the Americans will do like the British space program does, go to a nation with the ability go get into space and go.
"Look we want to go into space but we lack the actual ability to do so. What we'll do is loan you some scientists, pay you for the time and effort in exchange for letting some of our Astronauts hitch a ride."
Which is the arrangement we have at the moment IIRC, it costs substantially less than an actual space program but means we have to hitch rides on other peoples.
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"Ok humie, lets see where u wuz goin. All humie's die, we go to dis place, we make good fight, its a WAAAGH!"|
Originally Posted by Dark One
"There is no peace amongst the stars, only an eternity of carnage and slaughter, and the laughter of thirsting gods." A very appropriate quote...
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Why do I picture us as a species actually getting on with Orks...which is quite disturbing really...
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And have been for a while. And have been using them - I do believe at least one mission was using an ion engine. |
Originally Posted by EnigmaBlack
Supposedly NASA is working on "new" tech that will replace combustion engines for long distance space flights.
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That said, short term - yes, SpaceX and others in private enterprise will do the lifting. Which is probably a good idea - competition should make that cheaper, and NASA can concentrate on the science and exploration with their limited budget. (Seriously. Americans spend more at Starbucks each year than NASA gets in their entire budget, as I recall.)
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| According to some rumors the discovery of this tech was the reason we went to Iraq. Conspiracy theorists point to the raiding of the Baghdad Museum as well as the secrecy behind the uncovering of the tomb of Gilgamesh as reasons for their insinuations. |
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Something like the fourth ion engine space probe is out there right now, the Dawn spacecraft, just went into orbit around the second most massive member of the asteroid belt, Vesta. Because of its ion engine, after a year or so it will be able to leave orbit and head to the largest asteroid and dwarf planet, Ceres. |
Originally Posted by Memphis_Bill
And have been for a while. And have been using them - I do believe at least one mission was using an ion engine.
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As for other unmanned projects, we seem to be at least keeping up, still. The Juno spacecraft to Jupiter is being prepared for launch in a few days, and the new Mars rover Curiosity should be in the air by November. A lot of scientists and science enthusiasts are making as much noise as possible about the James Webb Space Telescope... sure, it's overbudget, but the Hubble Telescope is generally seen as one of the most successful projects in a while, and its days are numbered. JWST is the next step up, and just throwing away the billions spent seems rather silly. Also, it's not just our project... we collaborated on it with the European and Canadian space agencies. They probably would like a say on whether their time and money gets thrown in the trash heap.
As for putting people in space... we do seem to be at a low spot. Shutting down the Shuttle was a good idea... it was old (designed in the 70s), expensive, and never lived up to specs. Plus, it didn't exactly have the greatest safety record. The proposed Constellation program that was started under Bush is all but cancelled at this point, and I can't say I'm too disappointed. It was already pretty deeply overbudget, and unlike the James Webb it had nothing to show for it. Plus, it wasn't going to be ready until almost a decade after the shuttle was over by design. I don't want to see the US get out of the space business, but maybe the new plan will work out. Helping fund private companies to make spacecraft should help encourage more private money being put into it, and I'm pretty confident that SpaceX will be able to start taking some of the slack within the next few years.
As for the ISS... all those billions, and we're just going to deorbit it? I think the Russians, Europeans, Japanese, and Canadians who also contributed might have something to say about that. Especially since it's almost finally finished.
Anyway. Even if NASA seems to be flagging a bit (which is questionable when it comes to unmanned probes, considering our Mercury, Moon, Mars, Vesta, and Saturn orbiters currently operating, plus the fact that the Opportunity rover is still going), there's plenty to be excited about for other countries. Right now I'm cheering for Japan to get through their streak of bad luck and pull off their Venus orbiter, wishing good luck to the Russian/Chinese launch to Mars later this year, excitedly tracking the progress the Europeans are making at Mars, Venus, and their comet orbiter which is en route, waiting to see how the Chinese space station turns out, getting updates on new plans from plenty of other countries looking to get into the game, like India recently did...
There's a lot going on up there. I hope it stays that way.
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Yeah, given what we've gotten from Hubble, I'm *really* hoping Webb gets up there and gives us as much of a leap.
The thing about letting private industry do it is well...look at what private industry has done in this country. You let a private company get a monopoly on space travel/exploration and you'll end up with something that is only concerned with seeking the maximum amount of profits. There'll be little to no actual oversight, so they'll do what they want and damn the consequences.
Hey all
Always been a amateur fan of the space race, trips to orbit, the moon etc, so I know that the Space Shuttles have been decomissioned, and that the Soyuz is the way up there to the ISS now, but I was curious, what's next for NASA?
I'm presuming they are working on something to replace the Shuttle, but I dunno what, so I thought I'd turn to a more knowledgable Oracle, you lot
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