Future of CoX..


Aggelakis

 

Posted

I've played a few MMoRPG's in my time, CoH is one of the few I've consistently enjoyed.

There are a few things I am a bit confused about, which I believe effect the future of this game, and of course, hence make me wonder about the time investment I am making in it,

I'll list the points I believe effect CoX's future, I'd like to hear everyone's comments on them,

  • Grind: This is a very confusing topic for me. 'Other' popular MMoRPG's tend to have much more of a grind to them than CoH, yet, they have WAY more subscribers, orders of magnitude more - I don't quite get it. I thought that most players would want to avoid the grind and instead want games they can play more casually. Yet, the case seems to be different.

    It seems that CoX is gravitating towards the grind concept more (with the incarnate trails? months and above to max out a character even when playing regularly?). Luckily the grind is limited to 50+, not for every player in the game.

    This brings up the question though, will this new 'grind when you hit 50' model work? If so, is this what we want CoX to truly be?
  • End Game Content: Till recently, end game content was kinda sparse on CoX; in fact, when I joined, I kept putting of IO'ing up my toons thinking 'what's the point of having IO's when you're already 50! Isn't that the end of the game' - then I started realizing, that to a large extent, this game 'starts' at 50.

    Now WAY more 50+ content is being added, but it is being made so that people will only get benefit from the content to the 50+ toon that is running that content. Earlier, I could do 50+ TF's and rake in inf, that I could use to slot/power up lower level toons and make the game more enjoyable for them. Now, it's more to the tune of 'you have to put in a lot of time, to make that 50 toon better, who is, well, already 50'
  • PvP: This is a sore point; how can a game the size of CoX totally ignore PvP like this? Most other games with higher subscriber numbers have WAY more focus on PvP. Do the devs not get that this is really important to players?

    I understand that their inclination to work on this is lower since very low percentages of players PvP, but that is also because to a large extent because of the mechanics of PvP.

    Considering the focus on incarnate content, is PvP really just going to be dismissed? And if it is, what will people do 'after' they have all their incarnate slots? Or, what if they really don't care that much about getting their incarnate abilities?
  • Mid-Game and Starter Content: I have only one major complaint against this - rewards. Why would anyone really want to play much mid/start game content when they know that most of what they'll get will be close to worthless? Who buys a level 30 LOTG defense? Or a Aegis Resistance/Endurance?
  • Age: The game is 7+ years old - most games tend to start to die out right about this point, even if wildly successful earlier.

    Considering CoX was never a top contender for successful to start with, what does this bode for the future of the game?


These are just my thoughts and questions; I am sure there is a lot of perspective I am missing, that I would appreciate if people fill in for me


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by slainsteel View Post
[*] Who buys a level 30 LOTG defense? Or a Aegis Resistance/Endurance?
PvPers. People looking to have IOed builds if they frequently do lower level content.

In fact, because so many people are running on their 50s, those sorts of things are actually in demand because the supply is so low.


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Posted

Most of my IOs are in the early 30 range. My tanks end up defense capped, and my doms perma dom 1, by then. Hardly useless, and I get to be awesome half my journey to 50. But yes, obtaining them is much difficult at these levels.



 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by slainsteel View Post
Grind: This is a very confusing topic for me. 'Other' popular MMoRPG's tend to have much more of a grind to them than CoH, yet, they have WAY more subscribers, orders of magnitude more - I don't quite get it. I thought that most players would want to avoid the grind and instead want games they can play more casually. Yet, the case seems to be different.
This is a psychological quirk of human nature that most people are geared toward intermittent rewards more than any other type of reward or achievement strategy. Incremental rewards, a.k.a. working steadily toward something, holds very little interest for people.

The human race's preference for intermittent rewards can be seen in such disparate things as raids in MMOs (maybe you'll get something, maybe that something will useful or valuable), slot machines/gambling/playing the lottery and spousal abuse. I am not making light of the last one. The intermittent reward in this case is being told that you are valued, loved, appreciated and sometimes an apology is given for the behavior. Just as MMO grinds and slot machines are addictive, so is this behavior on the part of the abuser. It's one of the two main reasons the abused stay with their abuser. (The other main one is fear of being hurt or killed.) So as you can see, intermittent rewards are incredibly powerful.

Quote:
Age: The game is 7+ years old - most games tend to start to die out right about this point, even if wildly successful earlier.

Considering CoX was never a top contender for successful to start with, what does this bode for the future of the game?
Define "top contender." During the first year of the game, CoH had 250-275k players. That was without PvP or endgame content. It's had between 50k and 100k for most of its life span. Even at the current rate of 75k+/- subscribers, the game is pulling in a million bucks a month. Since they've amortized the cost of most of the assets, that's pretty decent money. Plus, they registered "CoH2" last year, so that's likely on the way.

Compared to the 3 or 4 most popular subscription-based MMOs out there, CoH doesn't compare. But if you look at those games, they share some key elements: Fantasy themed, focus on raids (intermittent rewards) and grindy (intermittent rewards). That said, CoH is generally in the top 5 of paid MMOs (as opposed to F2P games).

Comparing apples to apples, CoH has handily withstood the challenges of its much-anticipated superhero-themed rivals: Champions Online is now widely considered a failure (even within Cryptic apparently) and has gone F2P, while DCUO is rapidly plummeting in popularity.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironik View Post
Plus, they registered "CoH2" last year, so that's likely on the way.
I wouldn't really label it "likely." I wouldn't argue if it WERE, of course, but registering a site (for instance) doesn't mean anything's going to come of it. It's mostly done to defend or preserve growth options for an IP.

Now, if I heard NCSoft registered another ".... of heroes" trademark, I'd be somewhat more curious.

(One thing that comes to mind with this is actually Diablo. Blizzard made one movie - formerly called "Diablo," I don't recall what it was renamed - change its name. Rumors, of course, started that they were making their own "Diablo" movie... nope.)


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by slainsteel View Post
[*]Age: The game is 7+ years old - most games tend to start to die out right about this point, even if wildly successful earlier.
Please post the data showing most games starting to die out in year 7.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironik View Post
Plus, they registered "CoH2" last year, so that's likely on the way.
You can start listing the MMO sequels that outdid the original anytime you like.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironik View Post
Champions Online is now widely considered a failure (even within Cryptic apparently) and has gone F2P
With it's revenue now up over 1,000% since it went F2P? Source


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amy_Amp View Post
With it's revenue now up over 1,000% since it went F2P? Source
Dubious at best.


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Posted

As for the OP:

Grind:

Yes, it does seem the incarnate bit is leaning more toward "grind" - but on the other hand, with shards planned for "Any content" (or something close to that for a 50,) it's less of an issue.

See, when I think of "grind," I think of two things -

"Bring bat 10 bat nose hairs," where you're having to stay in a limited area (often with other groups competing for the same thing) and these items drop out of maybe 1/10 of what you kill. We just don't have this. You *can,* I suppose, argue we do for IOs and whatnot - but that's a personal choice to go after, it's not required by the game.

"Do X useless task just to be allowed to move forward." Aion comes to mind for this, for me. I had skills that just didn't get upgraded because, after a certain level, the books you needed got expensive. And don't get me into the wings - I'm glad I had vet rewards and (IIRC) a collector's bonus for them. There just aren't any non-self-created brick walls like that.

Now, yes, we have hunts, and some people will say "Hunt 50 Carnies" is a grind... but for me, it's orders of magnitude smaller. Plus, of course, we can drop missions.

End game content:

Eh. I'm down to "wait and see." I've never been big on "raids" - the ones we've had (Mothership, primarily) have been fairly friendly, casual-wise, and not required for anything. Plus we haven't had the "Raid to get gear to raid to get gear to raid" treadmill. I feel like we're seeing this trying to creep in with the Incarnate stuff that's been revealed, and don't particularly like it... but I've said my piece on that, and am sitting back and waiting to see what happens when all this is released.

(Again, Aion - I actually liked trying to take forts. There was more to it than just "swarm," though, as there were outlying islands in the Abyss that could be taken - divert a force to take them and get some help, or keep people there to guard them so you don't get nuked. However, for the most part - if you weren't at or near top level, it could be somewhat frustrating.)

PVP:

You're going to hit a nerve here.

The game launched without PVP to begin with. Even when it was just heroes in the arena, though (issue 4,) there were balance issues. Tweaks were made all the way through issue 12 - and then they dropped issue 13, which really did a number on the PVP population. We went from a learning curve to a learning cliff, thanks to suppresison, powers working differently and the like. Revisiting PVP is going to be a *huge* project for them - if they do more than talk about it and send in the occasional Community Redname to post "What did you like" posts. Much like the bases, there's a sense of being left to dangle in PVP.

Also, the fact this launched without PVP is part of why some people LIKE it.

WoW, Aion, Lineage and others were designed with PVP in mind from the start. COH, not so much. There was talk about it, but - well, go to my "Early COH trailer" guide and go through the dev diaries. Early designer comments, specifically - like Dakan saying "One city full of heroes, another full of villains is silly, really" (or something to that effect)... yet what do we have?

Mid-game:

For one, you're getting into the lore of the game, finding out what's going on with groups and whatnot. And there are some great arcs in that range. And if you're rewards focused, well... low and mid level salvage and recipes are sought after. *shrug*

Age:

So what? The game has been successful - if it weren't, it wouldn't still be here. WoW is an outlier, and one some companies got the wrong message from ("If we don't have millions of subs, we're a failure!") We've been profitable enough for NCSoft to buy the game directly and hire on most of the developers, give them their own office building and expand the team (from 15 to 60+.) Future of the game? We'll keep going as long as we're profitable.

As far as most games "dying out at this point," I'd argue most die early (1-2 years.) Either they crash and burn (Tabula Rasa, Auto Assault, Earth and Beyond, Hellgate) or they go F2P (CO) or, if they're with sony, go on as part of the Station Pass for a while (think this kept the Matrix going for a bit.) For COH to keep going on its original subscription model for this long? Hey, that's great. And they keep adding new stuff... like, oh, GR. Stuff that's rather labor (and time and money) intensive, as opposed to little bugfix and QOL patches. We're not in "maintenance mode," in other words - we're still growing.

Future of COX? Still has a few years, I think.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anti_Proton View Post
Dubious at best.
1,000% increase on a tiny chunk of change would still be bad. It's a good thing they've clarified that it is otherwise.


Oh wait, they didn't.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anti_Proton View Post
Dubious at best.
Prove it.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amy_Amp View Post
Prove it.
Hard to do. i mean as far as whether a 1000% increase in revenue after going F2p means that the game in question is doing well.

The subs were down a lot from what i could tell in the months prior to F2P going live. So a tenfold increase in revenue is only really good if they weren't doing very badly immediately beforehand. Would you happen to know what the amount being multiplied was?

"We're making ten times what we were right before going F2P" doesn't tell us anything by itself.


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Posted

"People hate grind" is a myth. People say they don't like it, but it's still an attractive activity and provides a reason for players to stick around. Get over this idea of a grindless MMO; the only successful games that don't have grind are the ones that rely on a one-time up-front fee.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amy_Amp View Post
With it's revenue now up over 1,000% since it went F2P? Source
If you had a dollar, and I gave you $999, the amount you have now has gone up 1000% from what you had before.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDeepBlue View Post
If you had a dollar, and I gave you $999, the amount you have now has gone up 1000% from what you had before.
i think your math is a tiny bit off.

1000% of $1 is $10.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bosstone View Post
"People hate grind" is a myth. People say they don't like it, but it's still an attractive activity...
Um, no, it isn't.

I don't like grind. I may like the *result* of it (new power, etc.) - or not ("Finally, next mission, that sucked... wait, more bats?") - but that doesn't mean I like the process.

True for everyone? No. Some people may find some sort of "zen" in the activity. Others don't. Feeling too "grindy" is a big part of what made me leave Aion.

Of course, part of what determines if you like it or not is how it's presented, too. I'm not sure if you'd call Minecraft "grindy" or not - in some ways, it fits the definition well (there's really nothing else TO do but mine, craft, mine, defeat or avoid enemies, etc.) but in other ways it's... well, Legos.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amy_Amp View Post
You can start listing the MMO sequels that outdid the original anytime you like.
Spiritual or Direct?

Okay, in all fairness, the only well known MMO to get direct-sequel so far has been Everquest... and Everquest 2 did pretty much about the same. It wasn't a flop, but it wasn't a roaring success... largely because Warcraft did Everquest 2 better than Everquest 2.

Other than that, MMO's really don't HAVE sequels unless you count spiritual successors.

And yes, of the spiritual successors, only WarHammer did better than Dark Age of Camelot, but that was mostly because most of DoAC's player-base moved to Warhammer and EA Mythic picked off a few Warcraft refugees.

Quote:
With it's revenue now up over 1,000% since it went F2P? Source
Numbers can be excessively misleading, as already pointed out in this thread.

The "big" problem with Champions Online numbers is that Infogrames never gave out any financial numbers to begin with. We only have anecdotal evidence that Cryptic was bleeding subscribers. We only have anecdotal evidence that Cryptic had to pay back over 65% of the limetime subscriptions to upset customers. We only have anecdotal evidence that at the time of the decision to go to a free-to-play model that Cryptic was loosing money on both Star Trek AND Champions Online.

The only fact we know for sure is that Infogrames stock price has been tanking: http://investing.businessweek.com/re...?ticker=ATA:FP

Now, is Infogrames poor overall performance a reflection on just Champions Online alone?

Well. No. Infogrames does own a large portfolio of other titles, and there were about 8 other franchise / titles published in 2010: http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/company/5213.html

So Infogrames financial woes can't be blamed solely on Champions Online. By the same token, we can't universally say that Champions Online, and Cryptic by extension, were taking heavy financial losses.

By those same tokens of lack of information, we can't say that a Free-to-Play model made Champions Online profitable. A Free-to-play model may have increased the revenue Cryptic derives. Revenue does not equal profits, and nor does it equal breaking even.

It is very possible, and very likely, for Cryptic's Revenue on Champions Online to increase by 1000% and for Cryptic to still post operating losses.

Now, if Infogrames comes forward and shows the subscriber levels and financial information, and shows that the Free-to-play model did make Cryptic Profitable... then a discussion about using Champions Online as model for any other game can begin.

I don't think Infogrames will be able to do that, mostly as far as I'm aware, that scenario just has not happened.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amy_Amp View Post
With it's revenue now up over 1,000% since it went F2P? Source
When you hit rock bottom, even a small increase can seem big

The collapse of CO left them with 2 choices - shut it down, or try F2P - and as a shut down would have been a financial blow for Atari, more awful PR for Cryptic, and a personal humiliation for Jack, F2P was the only real route left to them to try and salvage something from the disaster.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amy_Amp View Post
You can start listing the MMO sequels that outdid the original anytime you like.



With it's revenue now up over 1,000% since it went F2P? Source
Gee, the company made this comment. They must be telling the truth! Yeah. Ok. Anyway, I went and tried it out when it went F2P - what a joke. Sadly, I initially bought that game; when I logged in these idiots TOOK some of the costume pieces away that you got at first and, now, make you pay for them. Cryptic are complete and utter morons. I also how they now hid the number of players on each shard - probably a good idea considering how few people actually play that pile of crap.


Anyway, I kinda like the OP's point about mid-level reward issues. I do slot some IOs on my way to 50 but they can get expensive and most of them are up there at the 50 range. I just wish they did away with levels on their IOs and adjust automatically as your exemped etc. I bet all of the content would be played way more and you would want to play your 50 even more

I just wish this game would add some more epic stuff. Also some more comic book super stuff - not a bunch of militia and Nazis (they seem to be a very large percentage of our opposition and that kinda...well...it sucks).


 

Posted

Grind: An MMO without grinding would be a dead MMO. Think about this for a second if you are getting all huffy. An MMO is designed to sustain subscribers for the longest period of time, the way you do that is by artificially padding out content to make it last longer. In my opinion CoX is one of the most grindy MMOs on the market. It is litteraly 50 levels of doing the same thing over and over again until you reach 50 in which case you either continue doing the same things or reroll and do the same thing with a new character. Task Force are the divergence from this in that sometimes you get a mission in the TF that gives you something to do other than one of the three mission arc types in this game (Kill, Glowy, Escot.) People love to grind, it just has to be more involving than hitting the same button over and over again, hence why a LOT of people hate the low levels in this game.

End Game Content: I am surprised it took them this long to release it honestly. From what I have seen of i20, even though it is a little sparse, it is enough to keep me entertained for a couple of weeks at least. Apex and Tin Mage are STILL fun to me because there is a CHANCE of failure unlike any other task in the game thus far.

PvP: Yeah good luck with this, the majority of people in this game would rather see all the PvPers chased out than see it ever get attention again. If the devs DO work on it it will be to a bunch of whines that their time could be spent better elsewhere, for example look at the new end game content and all the detractors whinning about it.

Mid Game: Ehh this one I just say needs more TFs which we have coming down the line in i20 so...maybe eliminate TOs and DOs at this point just so it isnt like pulling teeth playing a low level character? As for rewards...well what do you want? All recipe drops to be 50? I just save merits on my characters until they reach 50 then buy what I need for their build.

Age: I have played a LOT of MMOs in my time and you are right, most games do start to fade away a little before 10 years but this game has the special rights to being the king of a very small genre so it will probably last longer. But you are right that more and more people will leave every month and it will get smaller and smaller but it will be years before it has to worry....Unless the devs pull another i13 or ED and drive away a chunk of their player base, cause that may do the game in at this point.

As far as everyone laughing at Champions, why do you have to mock another game to make you feel better about the one you play? Are you so worried about CoX that you have to constantly pat it on the back and tell it how great it is so it can keep on trucking? I just don't get it but I see it all the time in this game.


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Posted

If grinds weren't "popular" (either directly or by teasing some part of our monkey brain) you wouldn't have a bajillion people playing Farmville.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arbiter_Shade View Post
As far as everyone laughing at Champions, why do you have to mock another game to make you feel better about the one you play? Are you so worried about CoX that you have to constantly pat it on the back and tell it how great it is so it can keep on trucking? I just don't get it but I see it all the time in this game.
It's more for the amusement value:

Quote:
"Champions Online is going to be better than City of Heroes in every way, shape, and form. It's sad, but it's evolution. We're not afraid to take up the challenge."
Quote:
"When we launched those games, we felt they were superior to City of Heroes, which as you know was a big hit. And I still, to this day, say they are superior to City of Heroes—but, you know, the market changed."


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Posted

I'm hoping beyond hope that Cryptic, and Jack by default, never get their hands on another IP I actually care about...

So much potential only to be wasted.

Shade, we mock CO not to make ourselves feel better or superior. We mock it because it deserves to be mocked. If it had been all that was promised we wouldn't be here to mock in the 1st place. It was touted for such a long time as the COH killer yet we see how that went.
We earned the right to mock CO when their Dev's actively used our forum to recruit.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Golden Girl View Post
It's more for the amusement value:
Quote:
"When we launched those games, we felt they were superior to City of Heroes, which as you know was a big hit. And I still, to this day, say they are superior to City of Heroes—but, you know, the market changed."
Wow.

...wow.






...wow!


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aggelakis View Post
Wow.

...wow.






...wow!
Word!


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