Yes.
Non-smart *** answer: I19 is coming up, which provides gameplay incentives for players to play their level 50 characters. If the mechanics of Alpha enhancement (not slot) acquisition remain unchanged from what was seen during the Going Rogue closed beta, then I imagine purple prices will decline following I19's release.
@Demobot
Also on Steam
Almost everything has this sort of sawblade graph: you get a huge spike of demand [Going Rogue, for instance] and then prices gradually go down until the next huge spike of demand.
So my default guess would be "Slowly drop in price". However, I don't make long term bets on anything in this market. I'm wrong too often.
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
Quote:
But what if people had shelved their 50s for lack of content now unshelve them and need purples because they never bothered playing them?
|
Originally Posted by Demobot
Yes.
Non-smart *** answer: I19 is coming up, which provides gameplay incentives for players to play their level 50 characters. If the mechanics of Alpha enhancement (not slot) acquisition remain unchanged from what was seen during the Going Rogue closed beta, then I imagine purple prices will decline following I19's release. |
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
Quote:
I see that happening. I know that my usual Sunday group will probably be spending a lot of time playing 50's. |
Originally Posted by SwellGuy
But what if people had shelved their 50s for lack of content now unshelve them and need purples because they never bothered playing them?
|
I think more purples will be in demand, but I also think more purples will be generated as people play those 50's at 50, since we'll now have more reason to.
@Quasadu
"We must prepare for DOOM and hope for FREEM." - SirFrederick
Quote:
And given that, I predict at least a temporary huge price spike since the drop rate will not exceed the demand the first month or so.|
Originally Posted by Quasadu
I see that happening. I know that my usual Sunday group will probably be spending a lot of time playing 50's.
I think more purples will be in demand, but I also think more purples will be generated as people play those 50's at 50, since we'll now have more reason to. |
But only on the good ones of course.
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
Quote:
Maybe. People who didn't play their 50s much made that decision for a variety of reasons. Given that there's not *that* much new content at 50, and given that the alpha slot might be the kind of "grind" that kept them from being interested in playing their 50s in the same content over and over prior to I19, the idea that people who weren't motivated to purple their 50s will suddenly want to do so isn't something I'm sure I agree with.|
Originally Posted by SwellGuy
And given that, I predict at least a temporary huge price spike since the drop rate will not exceed the demand the first month or so.
But only on the good ones of course. |
But I also stink at long term predictions on the market, so I guess we'll see what happens. =)
My postings to this forum are not to be used as data in any research study without my express written consent.
Quote:
But then if people don't play their 50s there will be no new supply of purples generated so prices will remain high.|
Originally Posted by EarthWyrm
Maybe. People who didn't play their 50s much made that decision for a variety of reasons. Given that there's not *that* much new content at 50, and given that the alpha slot might be the kind of "grind" that kept them from being interested in playing their 50s in the same content over and over prior to I19, the idea that people who weren't motivated to purple their 50s will suddenly want to do so isn't something I'm sure I agree with.
But I also stink at long term predictions on the market, so I guess we'll see what happens. =) |
Basically I see no condition where the prices go down for purples.
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
Quote:
A significant number of people who start playing a lot more at 50 for the incarnate content, but aren't interested in slotting any (or any more) purples, would increase supply without increasing demand.|
Originally Posted by SwellGuy
But then if people don't play their 50s there will be no new supply of purples generated so prices will remain high.
Basically I see no condition where the prices go down for purples. |
I'd really love to know some things about this game, like the levels that most people play at, and the proportions of people who are usings SOs/common IO/frankenslotting/purples, whether people use very different slotting strategies on their different characters. It would be fascinating.
Arc#314490: Zombie Ninja Pirates!
Defiant @Grouchybeast
Death is part of my attack chain.
Quote:
This. | I also stink at long term predictions on the market, so I guess we'll see what happens. =) |
I can imagine the case where people play their pre-purpled 50's more and generate surplus purples. Or the case where the market runs short of money due to a huge prestige war on Virtue slurping up all the inf. Or something. But I can't do any sort of sensible modelling so any guess about where purple prices would go and why is ... well, see quote.
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
One, two, three, four,
I declare a prestige war!
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Heh
Enjoy your day please.
Or people whose 50s are "done" and have all the purples they need and have been shelved for lack of anything to do will start playing them again and generating surplus purples.
Or maybe I'm the only one who will be doing that.
Eva Destruction AR/Fire/Munitions Blaster
Darkfire Avenger DM/SD/Body Scrapper
Arc ID#161629 Freaks, Geeks, and Men in Black
Arc ID#431270 Until the End of the World
Or maybe the Alpha Slot will only work on non-IO'd characters and everyone will sell thier purples off 
.
More seriously part of the goal with the Alpha slot did seem to be decreasing the gap between IO'd and SO'd characters so depending on how well it suceeds we might not see a huge spike in demand since people run their 50s through Incarnate content but don't feel the need to IO their characters.
Nobody can ever be sure of these things.....cause unlike the real-world market, the in-game market isn't a predictor of future profitability or dividends paid by a company. Its a simple zero-sum game where people try and guess if people will pay more or less for items going forward (perhaps even more or less in comparison to other items the seller may wish to buy with the inf later).
If you want my best guess, I'd guess there will be a short-term surge in purple prices with i19 as people break out 50's almost all of which will be respec'ed to add 3 new powers to (which provides a convenient excuse to purple up a set or 2). Of course in a few weeks with everyone playing those same 50's alot, prices will probably stabilize and then drop.
How far though? I wouldn't dare say but it won't be a crash like we've seen in pool C prices with amerits unless something either increases the supply of purples alot or the incarnate system makes them less desirable than they are now and this reduces demand alot.
One thing I think everyone has missed with why the purples have spiked so much in i18 is because amerits caused a new way of racking up large amounts of inf quickly. This created a nouveux riche group which: 1) had inf in large amounts and ability to keep earning it. 2) still needed purples on one or more toons. If there is a new, unexpected method of getting large sums of inf for a currently un-purpled group....perhaps we'll see another spike.
E.E.
Quote:
I do not think this word means what you think it means.
| Its a simple zero-sum game |
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
Quote:
Don't you mean "words"? |
Originally Posted by Fulmens
I do not think this word means what you think it means.
|
But yeah, it is not a zero-sum game. Unless you are buying and selling everything off market.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Honestly, I'll play my non-purple 50s thru Incarnate content. (or will attempt to. 
) Being able to purple my toons is icing on the cake. I have been able to play all the high level task/strike forces without purples so I think it really depends on people's playstyles, ie, whether they want to drive a ferrari or ford on the same 65 mph highway.
Quote:
In game theory and economic theory, zero-sum describes a situation in which a participant's gain or loss is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the other participant(s). If the total gains of the participants are added up, and the total losses are subtracted, they will sum to zero. Zero-sum can be thought of more generally as constant sum where the benefits and losses to all players sum to the same value of money (or utility). Cutting a cake is zero- or constant-sum, because taking a larger piece reduces the amount of cake available for others. In contrast, non-zero-sum describes a situation in which the interacting parties' aggregate gains and losses is either less than or more than zero. Zero-sum games are also called strictly competitive.|
Originally Posted by Fulmens
I do not think this word means what you think it means.
|
Not too bad a definition of zero-sum game pulled from wiki. O.K. Its technically not zero-sum because the house keeps 10%. But yes I mean that there is no increase in marketwide productivity of popping recipes associated with buying recipes from one seller or another (based on their efficiency at converting assets to profits through something resembling ROA or ROE). So effectively the market functions as a zero-sum game with the only real difference in utility for participants being the difference between exchange value and use value. When you're playing with purples, the way you get more (win) is for another player to pay more (lose) than he would have if you hadn't paticipated. Its possible that this will still increase the total utility of the pops to the player base as the purples will be more thoroughly sent to those who have large sums of inf and its possible those players play more thus deriving more total use value.
Now that I've put you all to sleep with economics...........well I'll get back to watching baseball.
If the incarnate system and its associated content is successful, and if that content can yield purple recipes, then I would expect to see an increase in supply. The question is, what will happen to demand? All I have to go by is my own situation, which matches Eva Destruction's. My current level 50 characters are 'done;' either I no longer like the characters and will never play them again, or I have fully kitted them out so that they don't need any further enhancement upgrades. The latter are the ones I intend to take through the new content.
So, going by that, I would expect a drop in prices. Is that what will happen? Dunno. I have no idea if my situation is typical. Maybe a poll of players could give more insight there.
Quote:
... that was my point.
| Its technically not zero-sum because the house keeps 10%. |
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
Quote:
No. Purples are not a Zero-sum game. You neglected the part about "total gains and losses are zero". Zero-sum games exist when one's ability to gain requires another to lose. Players can make more purples. Some parties can gain without others losing. Thus, not a zero-sum game. It is not the productivity that is required to be "zero sum" -- its the total amount of whatever good that exists.|
Originally Posted by Enyalios
In game theory and economic theory, zero-sum describes a situation in which a participant's gain or loss is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the other participant(s). If the total gains of the participants are added up, and the total losses are subtracted, they will sum to zero. Zero-sum can be thought of more generally as constant sum where the benefits and losses to all players sum to the same value of money (or utility). Cutting a cake is zero- or constant-sum, because taking a larger piece reduces the amount of cake available for others. In contrast, non-zero-sum describes a situation in which the interacting parties' aggregate gains and losses is either less than or more than zero. Zero-sum games are also called strictly competitive.
Not too bad a definition of zero-sum game pulled from wiki. O.K. Its technically not zero-sum because the house keeps 10%. But yes I mean that there is no increase in marketwide productivity of popping recipes associated with buying recipes from one seller or another (based on their efficiency at converting assets to profits through something resembling ROA or ROE). So effectively the market functions as a zero-sum game with the only real difference in utility for participants being the difference between exchange value and use value. When you're playing with purples, the way you get more (win) is for another player to pay more (lose) than he would have if you hadn't paticipated. Its possible that this will still increase the total utility of the pops to the player base as the purples will be more thoroughly sent to those who have large sums of inf and its possible those players play more thus deriving more total use value. Now that I've put you all to sleep with economics...........well I'll get back to watching baseball. |
Examples of Zero-sum games:
Generally stock. Generally, there is a fixed amount of stock for one company. For one person to get more another must lose some.
Generally Property. For one person to gain property another must lose.
Non-Zero sum games:
Milking Cows: Someone can go get milk
Automotive: Someone can make more cars
Quote:
We're not talking about purples as a whole....we're talking about speculating on purples (not popping more unless the price paid for some causes someone to have better IOs and thus pop more). I pop purples, I also sometimes speculate on purples. Popping purples to sell is a win-win game......someone else gets to buy a purple at a price that is less than the presumed utility of the purple (or they wouldn't have bid it in the 1st place).....I get inf and since I don't need the purple gain utility as well. When I speculate on purples its a -0.1 sum game since the house keeps 10% and there is a fixed quantity at that given time on market. I only win if I get someone to pay at more than 10% more than I paid......ergo very similar to a zero-sum game.|
Originally Posted by Chriffer
No. Purples are not a Zero-sum game. You neglected the part about "total gains and losses are zero". Zero-sum games exist when one's ability to gain requires another to lose. Players can make more purples. Some parties can gain without others losing. Thus, not a zero-sum game. It is not the productivity that is required to be "zero sum" -- its the total amount of whatever good that exists.
Examples of Zero-sum games: Generally stock. Generally, there is a fixed amount of stock for one company. For one person to get more another must lose some. Generally Property. For one person to gain property another must lose. Non-Zero sum games: Milking Cows: Someone can go get milk Automotive: Someone can make more cars |
Now there is I guess a potential arguement that high purple prices encourage more people to run farms popping them.....but I don't believe most players are rational inf generating agents in this game or someone other than me would have been popping purples aggressively redside circa i13 when I went from wealthy (a couple billion) to stupidly wealthy (100's of billions of value stored) mostly by popping and selling purples redside. There was another surge when the MM pets in AE didn't exemp down as well and once again.....nobody but me popping purples aggressively redside as prices rose to absurd levels (armageddons selling for 1.0B for example for week or so).
I'm not absolutely sure economics can be applied to the market though since as I have agreed, many of not most participants are not rationally driven players seeking to maximize their inf as a proxy for their utility.
Quote:
but I doubt they'll drop below the price of the last days of i18 ... the demand for purples will always greatly outpace supply. 1 purple crazed player will create a demand for 100+ IOs(1) alone. it is going to take a great many players not wanting their drops to fill that demand and then have a surplus to cause prices to fall. |
Originally Posted by Enyalios
If you want my best guess, I'd guess there will be a short-term surge in purple prices with i19 as people break out 50's almost all of which will be respec'ed to add 3 new powers to (which provides a convenient excuse to purple up a set or 2). Of course in a few weeks with everyone playing those same 50's alot, prices will probably stabilize and then drop.
|
(1) as a purple crazed player I know off hand across the 6 lv 50 toons I have have more than 95 purple ios total
Card Carrying DeFulmenstrator--Member Crazy 88s
We burn more Influence before 8am than you make all day.
Quote:
I have over 30 characters none of them "done". A few are getting close on one build, but they each have two and will all eventually have either an exemping/50only split, or solo/team split depending on the nature of the characters (defenders and controllers go solo/team, most others go exemp/50only).|
Originally Posted by Intrinsic
All I have to go by is my own situation, which matches Eva Destruction's. My current level 50 characters are 'done;' either I no longer like the characters and will never play them again, or I have fully kitted them out so that they don't need any further enhancement upgrades. The latter are the ones I intend to take through the new content.
So, going by that, I would expect a drop in prices. Is that what will happen? Dunno. I have no idea if my situation is typical. Maybe a poll of players could give more insight there. |
If I ever finish one, I'll just take the opportunity to start a new character. Therefore, I represent an infinite demand for purples. Unless they become obsolete or I stop playing for good, I will never have enough for my pool of characters and therefore will continue to buy them.
"Hmm, I guess I'm not as omniscient as I thought" -Gavin Runeblade.
I can be found, outside of paragon city here.
Thank you everyone at Paragon and on Virtue. When the lights go out in November, you'll find me on Razor Bunny.
Is the general thought that purples will continue to increase in cost, stay steady,or drop?
The more people I meet, the more I'm beginning to root for the zombies.