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If everything were fungible, I'd agree (and good analysis!).|
Originally Posted by mauk2
I lean toward the prices of purples increasing.
Here's my reasoning: General 'good' recipes can be had for two a-merits. 7.5's, healing unique's, etc, etc. Those seem to go 'on market' for about 100 millions, last I looked. Purples can be had for twenty a-merits. For those recipes which are supply-limited, the price should then tend toward parity with a-merit's disparity. Namely, most 'good' purples should wind up around a billion. The idea is thus: You have a player who has inf and earns merits. Before a-merits, he would have likely spent inf on the 'good' oranges first, since that's more bang for buck. Now, he can save that inf and bid on purples, while he gets the orange goodies with a-merits. More inf chasing a similar number of purples, prices rise. We'll see if my theory holds water.  |
If you are willing to get 20 a-merits, you'll get 30 or so and get the pvp for 2+ bn. Those are already hitting the market.
I'm neutral on purples, but bearish on rares and pvp recipes. But I'm a big fan of Temporal Sands.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
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Amerits aren't the most efficient way to create purples. At their current prices, people will be encouraged to farm level 47+ non-AE content to pop them. This will reduce their prices to whatever the new equilibrium is. I expect purples are past the eventual new equilibrium but not to their high point before they start declining yet. So I expect them to rise and then come back down, though not as far down as they were before.
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Originally Posted by mauk2
I lean toward the prices of purples increasing.
Here's my reasoning: General 'good' recipes can be had for two a-merits. 7.5's, healing unique's, etc, etc. Those seem to go 'on market' for about 100 millions, last I looked. Purples can be had for twenty a-merits. For those recipes which are supply-limited, the price should then tend toward parity with a-merit's disparity. Namely, most 'good' purples should wind up around a billion. The idea is thus: You have a player who has inf and earns merits. Before a-merits, he would have likely spent inf on the 'good' oranges first, since that's more bang for buck. Now, he can save that inf and bid on purples, while he gets the orange goodies with a-merits. More inf chasing a similar number of purples, prices rise. We'll see if my theory holds water. |
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I don't agree. If this were the only way to produce purples, I would. But I think the market supply of them from regular L50 play undercuts them trending to a billion unless there are perturbations that drag down that supply. More people actually try to find better bargains on things this expensive - downward forces on the buyer's buy price are high, and I think the existing market supply is sufficient to yield to those downward pressures in general.|
Originally Posted by mauk2
For those recipes which are supply-limited, the price should then tend toward parity with a-merit's disparity. Namely, most 'good' purples should wind up around a billion.
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I think that AMerit supply increases undercut the equilibrium pricing we had for Pool C/D rares based on RMerit production rates. I think that AMerit supply rates for purples are too below level 50 production rates of Purples to do the same there. Part of that is in terms of absolute cost, but part is also due to the extremely high opportunity cost of the AMerit cost of purples vs. pool C/D rares. (One purple's cost could produce 100 random pool C/D rares, or between 10 and 20 specific ones ... or more.)
Now, the Pool C/D undercutting has allowed money expenditures to shift from those rares to purples, and that is raising purple prices. But I don't think it's reasonable that the AMerit to inf price ratio of pool C/D vs purples really drive the market price of purples, because I don't believe AMerits are the dominant supply factor.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Well, they havent went down in 3 years, i dont see it changing any time soon, if ever...
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Yes, they have.|
Originally Posted by eryq2
Well, they havent went down in 3 years, i dont see it changing any time soon, if ever...
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During the height of the early AE exploits, purples were significantly more expensive than they have been for a long time after those exploits were (mostly) quashed. Purples have only gone back to those price levels now with I18, and it seems some recent exploits may have been in the mix.
If you meant to say they've never gone back to the prices they had at introduction, then I agree. But then again, almost nothing has, not even the high-end Pool C/D stuff with its post AMerit price decrease.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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I assume you are refering to Meow. Even at that point, i never seen or paid over 300-400 mil per recipe. Or more which they have been in the last month or so. I meant what i said. They have continued to go up in price, year on year for whatever the reason. I'm not sure what price you want to talk about? Not the 30 mil at intro. Not the 100mil after intro. Not the 200mil from a while back. Yea, they've spiked since i18, but they never (the good ones) have went back below 100mil since i've been playing "Purp My Toon". (sry for the pimp my ride joke)|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
Yes, they have.
During the height of the early AE exploits, purples were significantly more expensive than they have been for a long time after those exploits were (mostly) quashed. Purples have only gone back to those price levels now with I18, and it seems some recent exploits may have been in the mix. If you meant to say they've never gone back to the prices they had at introduction, then I agree. But then again, almost nothing has, not even the high-end Pool C/D stuff with its post AMerit price decrease. |
Personally, i'd like to see a cap on them. I know that's not a cool thing to say in a forum where people loooove to make money, but if the drops are going to be limited, so then should be the inf to be made off of them. But that's me.
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Last year prior to Double XP Weekend I was buying Apocalypse Proc recipes for 191 million, and selling them crafted for 300 million. Then after DXP they hit a peak and went steadily down to a price of 85-90 million. I had bought a dozen or so at a price of around 112 million, but was reluctant to sell them at a loss, and was hoping(correctly) that they would go up again. Then I kinda got playing that 'other MMO' for a bit. When I came back to CoH a month ago I found I had a bunch of items I spent 112 million on, that were now worth 400 million + each. Purple prices are higher now than they were back then, but every once in awhile the price tanks for some reason.
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Originally Posted by eryq2
I assume you are refering to Meow. Even at that point, i never seen or paid over 300-400 mil per recipe. Or more which they have been in the last month or so. I meant what i said. They have continued to go up in price, year on year for whatever the reason. I'm not sure what price you want to talk about? Not the 30 mil at intro. Not the 100mil after intro. Not the 200mil from a while back. Yea, they've spiked since i18, but they never (the good ones) have went back below 100mil since i've been playing "Purp My Toon". (sry for the pimp my ride joke)
Personally, i'd like to see a cap on them. I know that's not a cool thing to say in a forum where people loooove to make money, but if the drops are going to be limited, so then should be the inf to be made off of them. But that's me. |
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Then you weren't looking. And lol @ meow being the most severe of the exploits. The worst (or best, depending on perspective) came later.|
Originally Posted by eryq2
I assume you are refering to Meow. Even at that point, i never seen or paid over 300-400 mil per recipe.
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Apocalypse pieces hit 800M during the height of the exploits.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Yeah.....the worst AE bug yet I know of came right after people discovered that the new shiny ssk code didn't make mm pets exemp down in AE. The amazing thing is for all their supposed datamining, the powers in charge of the game didn't notice that 50% as much inf was generated in like 3 weeks as had been in the entire game up to that point.
There was a week in there that I KNEW something was really, really wrong because I was making inf off anything and everything I posted to the market. Purples spiked from 100-200M per range to 800-1000 on redside. I ran alot of lib tv farm for like 2 weeks and made an absolute ton of inf. I felt pretty good about myself until I learned that people were capping their 2B inf from nothing in like 90 mins in AE (and probably slotted a lot of toons with purples based on what I posted).
The current surge isn't like that one in that its been slow moving....but it still looks like a bubble that'll go back down at some point.
Oh yea. I didnt mess with that one much for fear of the mod smack. I remember reading about it. lol. I wasnt playing Purp My Toon back then. I was too broke. lol.
I lean toward the prices of purples increasing.
Here's my reasoning:
General 'good' recipes can be had for two a-merits. 7.5's, healing unique's, etc, etc.
Those seem to go 'on market' for about 100 millions, last I looked.
Purples can be had for twenty a-merits.
For those recipes which are supply-limited, the price should then tend toward parity with a-merit's disparity. Namely, most 'good' purples should wind up around a billion.
The idea is thus: You have a player who has inf and earns merits. Before a-merits, he would have likely spent inf on the 'good' oranges first, since that's more bang for buck. Now, he can save that inf and bid on purples, while he gets the orange goodies with a-merits.
More inf chasing a similar number of purples, prices rise.
We'll see if my theory holds water.