2010 2nd quarter earnings
By
Acemace,
Posted on: 2010-08-14 09:09 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
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lol you are seriously funny.|
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
Oh noes! Here's proof that the servers are all ghost towns. The game is DOOMED! do you hear?
 DOOMED! DOOMED! DOOMED!  |
the topic is about documented financials from ncsoft and cohs ability to survive with a declining population, not the roughly remaining 60k players playing the game currently.
look at the chart provided by unsub and you can see for yourself the downward trend which could lead to doom.
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Originally Posted by UnSub
The NCsoft Q1 2010 financials are out and things don't look good for CoH/V. Q1 covers January to March 2010, which includes the start of the GoRo pre-order offer (March 2, I believe).
In that period of time, CoH/V earned 3 348 M Won, which roughly translates to about US$2.9m (I've used an end of period exchange rate than an average over the 3 month period, but I don't believe there is much difference between the two results). Sadly, this is the lowest quarterly revenue generated by CoH/V in its history. It's a 13% drop on the previous quarter's earnings, with Q4 2009 being the previous record holder for the lowest revenue generated. In Won terms, it is also about half the revenue generated compared with year-on-year figures. It's a result that is probably explained by the lack of content releases in Q1 2010 and that players may have adopted a 'wait and see' approach about Going Rogue. DOOOOM comments incoming in 5, 4, 3, 2, ... |
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Originally Posted by UnSub
I haven't yet updated this to reflect the most recently figure, (which is US$2.93m iirc), but I did create this to show the previous history with $US:
 As for what NCsoft expects from CoH/V, it's 19 000 M Won for 2010. At today's exchange rate, that's about US$16.6m. GoRo is going to be a major revenue driver, but the real question is "how major"? In wider terms, Aion is doing great business for NCsoft and the main Korean operation is doing very well. That doesn't mean much for CoH/V since NCsoft has probably worn out its patience for unprofitable titles that don't have a chance of recovery. Other MMO developers generally don't split their revenue up by game title. I'm waiting to see what Atari's next earning statement looks like and perhaps Turbine's earnings will be more transparent now that they've been bought out. EvE looks like it continues to grow its active sub figures. EA doesn't talk about WAR anymore and servers have been shutting down on that game all over the world. EDIT - To add, the $US conversions were calculated using an end-of-period approach, rather than a 3-month exchange rate average. When I did the check on the two methods, the differences were very small at the top level so I used end-of-period. |
A very sad story about War Witch and the neglected kitty. http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?t=219670
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Originally Posted by Black_Barrier
Guess it's hard to click while actively trying to keep the drool away from the keyboard...
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Keep pushing the Dooooom button, Optical. The rest of us are going to enjoy the game without you.
Do you really think NCSoft can't figure out what games are good investments and which ones aren't? They chose to infuse a lot of capital into City of Heroes, and Paragon Studios. They are nowhere near the point where they're ready to pull the plug on anything.
Instead of worrying, why don't you play, and invite others to play that aren't already? Why would they want to play a game with people like you forecasting its demise?
Loose --> not tight.
Lose --> Did not win, misplace, cannot find, subtract.
One extra 'o' makes a big difference.
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He probably owns stock in Activision and Sony.
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Originally Posted by White Hot Flash
Keep pushing the Dooooom button, Optical. The rest of us are going to enjoy the game without you.
Do you really think NCSoft can't figure out what games are good investments and which ones aren't? They chose to infuse a lot of capital into City of Heroes, and Paragon Studios. They are nowhere near the point where they're ready to pull the plug on anything. Instead of worrying, why don't you play, and invite others to play that aren't already? Why would they want to play a game with people like you forecasting its demise? |
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NCsoft can and they are anything but sentimental. Those Exteel devs are going to be looking for employment in the near future. |
Originally Posted by White Hot Flash
Do you really think NCSoft can't figure out what games are good investments and which ones aren't? They chose to infuse a lot of capital into City of Heroes, and Paragon Studios. They are nowhere near the point where they're ready to pull the plug on anything.
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Again, I suspect that Paragon Studios has another MMO in development and that CoH/V is still a profitable source of revenue. However, it's not a case of "when does NCsoft turn out the lights" and more "when does CoH/V enter maintenance mode" for me. I've already lived through a phase of CoH/V's life where updates were anaemic and I don't really want to go through that again. So GoRo is the key: can it reverse a long-term trend of players leaving CoH/V? Personally I don't think it can and given NCsoft's own revenue target for CoH/V in 2010, nor do they.
Right now there is the new issue launch bump, but I'm interested to see how long that holds up.
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Fix'd. |
Originally Posted by White Hot Flash
Keep pushing the Dooooom button, Optical, it's only an Illusion.
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Playstation 3 - XBox 360 - Wii - PSP
Remember kids, crack is whack!
Samuel_Tow: Your avatar is... I think I like it
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Only by osmosis. I can find out more about the F-22's avionics than I can about The Hypothetical Game That Paragon Studios May Or May Not Be Developing But Sure Seem To Be Hiring A Lot Of People To Work On.|
Originally Posted by EvilGeko
As much as I love her, I'm concerned that a certain math smartie might influence them too much into perfect boring balance.
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Its such a black topic I would probably get in trouble just for saying what I don't know about it.
As to the topic of the OP, the question was: can city of heroes survive much longer on these numbers?
By my calculations, the answer is: probably. It would be better if they were somewhat higher, though. Either way, the numbers are only interesting to people generally interested in such things. There's nothing in there for the average player (or even the unaverage player) to do anything about. I'm certainly not looking at the revenue numbers and thinking to myself they are proof that the devs should turn the keys over to the OP or any other player. It changes nothing about whether I think the devs are right or some other player is right about the direction of the game on any given day of the week.
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The AE is only useless if you believed its purpose was to generate rewards at a much higher level than the rest of the game. If you don't think the AE is a cash machine, the reward levels are fine: they are comparable if not always equal to the standard content in most cases.
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Originally Posted by Bad_Influence
They basically stripped 98% of the rewards out of AE, rendering mostly useless a system they had devoted an entire issues' worth of thought to.
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[Guide to Defense] [Scrapper Secondaries Comparison] [Archetype Popularity Analysis]
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I agree with you Sam, and my money is on #3 for the record ;-)|
Originally Posted by Samuel_Tow
Let me expand on my previous question here: What are we hoping to achieve? I have a few guesses:
1. Strongarm the developers into making our changes under threat of game sink. "See, you did this, and now your game is sinking. You better do that, or you will go out of business!" This is, has always been and will always be futile. The developers cannot be strongarmed. They can be persuaded, and they can be persuaded by desire and enthusiasm, not threats of vague apocalypse. If the point was to persuade the developers, focusing on how a change could help the game is far superior to threatening how not making the change means doom. 2. pwn teh noobs. "People said the game wasn't dying, but now I have proof. Ha-ha!" This is pointless, useless and, above all, petty. While there is a certain degree of satisfaction in "I told you so!" what is it actually achieving? If we WANT the game to fail, then it makes sense to try and depress current players enough to leave by prophecy of doom, thereby doing little more than creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, thereby removing any satisfaction of being "right" anyway, since you didn't know, you just helped make it happen. But that's a bad motivation in any ethical context. 3. Sour grapes. "I hate this game because of all the bad changes made to it, but it's OK. It's the game's fault because it sucks and see? See? It's failing!" Having seen people do just that (and fall several levels down the ladder from "friend" into "*******"), I can definitely see it as a possibly intent, but again - what does this achieve? It's like the console wars all over again - I cannot simply prefer one game over the other based on personal taste. One game has to be provably superior to another in order to justify my opinion with hard fact and make my decision obviously correct. This is not a good motivation, because it could just as easily be replaced with a modicum of self-esteem. And that's all the options which I could envision. And none of those options are productive. WE are not going to fix the game if that were our intent, because WE are not game designers who work for Paragon Studios. The most we can do is campaign for what we want, make our opinions and ideas heard and trust the developers to make a good game out of it. We can't keep second-guessing them and trying to yank their jobs from out of their hands like we know everything. All the gripes here are legitimate, but as complaints constrained to their own particular field, not extrapolated into doom and gloom. And the rest is just mean-spirited alarmist hysteria. I've seen and seen claims that Going Rogue will bomb and sink the company. Even assuming that it will, so what? How will that change what YOU are doing right now? Do you need assurance that City of Heroes will last another decade in order for you to keep playing? Because such a guarantee will never exist. For any game. Even WoW. It's likely, obviously, but it's never guaranteed. Any game can bomb and fail. What does dwelling on that accomplish? Even if we could prove that City of Heroes is going down the drain, what are we trying to achieve by it? |
Also the whole AE debate is so old, can we forget it? As much as I love writing stories I sometimes wish they had never made it.
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Congratulations, you've proven that launch day of an expansion results in high activity. Let's see it stay like that for more than a few days, hm?|
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
Oh noes! Here's proof that the servers are all ghost towns. The game is DOOMED! do you hear?
(picture removed) |
Interestingly, the only parts of I18/GR that interest me, at all, are part of I18 and not GR (alignment merit vendor, merged markets, cross-faction trading/mail, new CM animation - finally), so I don't particularly care whether GR does well or flops. This game's profits, and subscriptions by association, have been on a slow but steady decline for the last two years or so, and I don't think aiming a large new expansion at new players is the right thing to do for a game in retention mode. Time will tell if it was the right decision.
On the Mission Architect: it's now a niche, like RP or badging or PvP. Most people don't want to read your poorly-written stories unless they're getting decent reward to go along with it, as most people that play this game (hell, most MMOs) are just as concerned - if not moreso - with the loot as they are with the text in the boxes you click through.
@macskull, @Not Mac | XBL: macskull | Steam: macskull | Skype: macskull
"One day we all may see each other elsewhere. In Tyria, in Azeroth. We may pass each other and never know it. And that's sad. But if nothing else, we'll still have Rhode Island."
"One day we all may see each other elsewhere. In Tyria, in Azeroth. We may pass each other and never know it. And that's sad. But if nothing else, we'll still have Rhode Island."
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You know you can make a point without posting such insults. I'm sure you know as well as I do that there are some truly great arcs out there which people have put a lot of effort into and are indeed very well written. |
Originally Posted by macskull
Most people don't want to read your poorly-written stories unless ...
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Positron said that you could level from 1 to 50 in AE. No where did he say that you should be earning a greater reward in AE then you do in regular content. The argument is over and its dead. The devs messed up by releasing it in such an exploitable state. It may be a niche now, but it was always meant to be. AE wasn't designed to take over the game and put everyone in Atlas Park.
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Actually from the amount of pushing Posi did over his baby (ew, that puts a nasty child-birth related image into my poor head) along with the time invested in it this is wrong, or at least hopelessly misguided on the devs part. You don't put a feature into every frakkin zone in the game and spend the bulk of two issues on a "niche".|
Originally Posted by Peacemoon
You know you can make a point without posting such insults. I'm sure you know as well as I do that there are some truly great arcs out there which people have put a lot of effort into and are indeed very well written.
Positron said that you could level from 1 to 50 in AE. No where did he say that you should be earning a greater reward in AE then you do in regular content. The argument is over and its dead. The devs messed up by releasing it in such an exploitable state. It may be a niche now, but it was always meant to be. AE wasn't designed to take over the game and put everyone in Atlas Park. |
I actually agree with mac on this one, the proof of the pudding in terms of how successful Going Rogue will be is how the population will be in a month or two, not on launch day.
Mind you I suspect the Devs know that and have a few Issues well underway to continue to fuel the fire and keep their churn down (at least I hope they do). NCSofts whole marketing approach of Going Rogue seems to be aimed at getting people back to the game from "other sources" rather than attracting totally new players into it (although that may not have been Paragon Studios initial intent).
Population: It's not just for other games.
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Softcapping an Invuln is fantastic. Softcapping a Willpower is amazing. Softcapping SR is kissing your sister.
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Pot meet kettle ? |
Originally Posted by Peacemoon
You know you can make a point without posting such insults. I'm sure you know as well as I do that there are some truly great arcs out there which people have put a lot of effort into and are indeed very well written.
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Originally Posted by Peacemoon
I was wondering the same ^^
Troll? |
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Originally Posted by EvilGeko
Let's say you're right, and you very well may be. Other than the satisfaction of being right and making the fanbois and fangurls look silly (which is rather entertaining I'll admit), this doesn't accomplish much.
If GoRo doesn't pave the way back to glory for City of Heroes, then NCSoft will have some decisions to make. They can put the game into maintenance mode, which sucks. They can shut it down if it gets back enough, that would suck more. They can continue to support it until CoH2 is done, that would be OK, but it will probably be back to the 15 dev days (which wasn't so bad actually). Personally, I choose not to dwell on those things. If the game fails, I've had a good run. If it returns to glory, then that's wonderful and we'll have much to look forward too. Again, it doesn't really matter either way. |
As to the rest I'd really rather not see city of heroes go. It has a few features that I really enjoy, excellent movement , the world as a three space that really works for me, no invisible walls that make no sense and destroy any sense of immersion you might have had. It's more than a little annoying to see the game perpetually amplify its weaknesses and play down its strengths. Some of that seems to stem from fitting the game play to the analysis tools they have handy.
Man I miss thread tags... I'd forgotten about them getting cut out of the forums until I saw this thread turn into what it is now.
Good times man, good times.
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That whistling sound you heard was the joke as it passed over your head. |
Originally Posted by macskull
Congratulations, you've proven that launch day of an expansion results in high activity. Let's see it stay like that for more than a few days, hm?
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True I should follow my own advice, and I do when the argument has merit. Like Sam I have reservations about the motive behind the original post and thus I see no reason to devote time to writing an articulate response. You see Another_Fan, its all about 'context'. A provocative 4-liner post by someone with a history of such things is fair game; story arcs which people have invested a lot of time and effort into require a thoughtful discussion in my opinion, not sweeping generalisations which include "no one wants to play your badly written storyarc..." I'm not arguing MA is perfect, just that respect should be given where it is deserved.
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Pot meet kettle ?
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Lol @ the child-birth related image, I kind of got the same, ick. As far as MA is concerned I'm not sure what the Devs intended for it, because CoH would suck if suddenly the city was empty and everyone in in the MA buildings, but that is a lot of time consumed to develop the feature. *Shrug*.|
Originally Posted by Carnifax_NA
Actually from the amount of pushing Posi did over his baby (ew, that puts a nasty child-birth related image into my poor head) along with the time invested in it this is wrong, or at least hopelessly misguided on the devs part. You don't put a feature into every frakkin zone in the game and spend the bulk of two issues on a "niche".
I actually agree with mac on this one, the proof of the pudding in terms of how successful Going Rogue will be is how the population will be in a month or two, not on launch day. Mind you I suspect the Devs know that and have a few Issues well underway to continue to fuel the fire and keep their churn down (at least I hope they do). NCSofts whole marketing approach of Going Rogue seems to be aimed at getting people back to the game from "other sources" rather than attracting totally new players into it (although that may not have been Paragon Studios initial intent). |
I agree that for GR, we need to give it a week or two minimum to see if the new population sticks, but I'm sure some will. Hopefully like you said the Devs have more issues lined up. More Praetoria content would be awesome, given how beautiful the place is.
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So is your face.
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Pot meet kettle ?
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Funny, I haven't noticed any pvp buffs lately. |
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Pot meet kettle ?
There really is no fun in making fanbois look silly. They were there first and usually do a much better job than anyone else can. I mean look in this thread you have people posting pictures of one days load to say "LOOK WE HAVE POPULATION THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS". You can't mock that more than it mocks itself. As to the rest I'd really rather not see city of heroes go. It has a few features that I really enjoy, excellent movement , the world as a three space that really works for me, no invisible walls that make no sense and destroy any sense of immersion you might have had. It's more than a little annoying to see the game perpetually amplify its weaknesses and play down its strengths. Some of that seems to stem from fitting the game play to the analysis tools they have handy. |
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Pot meet kettle ?
There really is no fun in making fanbois look silly. They were there first and usually do a much better job than anyone else can. I mean look in this thread you have people posting pictures of one days load to say "LOOK WE HAVE POPULATION THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS". You can't mock that more than it mocks itself. |
Posts like this where the person is so consumed with venom and bile that he can't appreciate humor and has to make up lies to justify his outrage make these threads even funnier.
There are no posts in this thread where anyone claimed there are no problems with the game.
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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
Posts like this where the person is so consumed with venom and bile that he can't appreciate humor and has to make up lies to justify his outrage make these threads even funnier.
There are no posts in this thread where anyone claimed there are no problems with the game. |
There are however posts with pictures showing one day loads as if to say "LOOK WE HAVE POPULATION THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS".
You know exactly what was meant Forbin.
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I think those pictures were designed to say "Hey look, GR has had a huge impact already." |
Originally Posted by Antigonus
There are however posts with pictures showing one day loads as if to say "LOOK WE HAVE POPULATION THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS".
You know exactly what was meant Forbin. |
NOT "CoH will last FOREVER!!!"
By the way, I predict CoH will still be here in another 6 years time, even if its just 1 server.
I think its safe to say people will get bored of the game long before it shuts down, so I don't understand this worry.
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My posting was nothing more than poking fun at all the doom and gloom in this thread.
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Originally Posted by Antigonus
There are however posts with pictures showing one day loads as if to say "LOOK WE HAVE POPULATION THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS".
You know exactly what was meant Forbin. . |
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So what are our problems? People don't play without new content? If so, doesn't yesterday prove merging isn't a solution to the population problem but that adding content is?
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Originally Posted by Antigonus
There are however posts with pictures showing one day loads as if to say "LOOK WE HAVE POPULATION THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS".
You know exactly what was meant Forbin. Stop playing stupid. It's insulting to everybody. |
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
DOOMED!
DOOMED!
DOOMED!
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