CoX player population is...?
By
Acemace,
Posted on: 2010-05-19 21:22 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
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that... link doesn't go anywhere.
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Originally Posted by TheJazMan
At 40 000?? That is what this massively.com writer estimates.
http://www.massively.com/page/2/ This is kinda disturbing news. I thought we were just under 100 000. That is a rapid decrease in population. Yikes! |
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It's about the 3rd article down.
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Originally Posted by je_saist
that... link doesn't go anywhere.
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Hes going off those Q1 reports.
| For one thing, assuming that only a third of that represents monthly subscriptions, that still pegs the game at around 40,000 subscribers |
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Yep, thanks! Haste makes waste! lol
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Originally Posted by Oliin
This might be a better link for folks I think.
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It also assumes that only a 3rd of that is from Monthly play... which would be a little bit odd if you ask me.
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Yea, that kind of confused me too. I mean, yes we do still get new players and there are a couple microtransaction-ish things you can buy for CoH but I have a hard time seeing that as two-thirds of quarterly income.
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Originally Posted by Zikar
It also assumes that only a 3rd of that is from Monthly play... which would be a little bit odd if you ask me.
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Agreed. It's not like we're selling a ton of boxes at the moment. And new players only have to pay $20 to join. Obviously, box sales will go up in July, but I doubt that only a third of the current total is from subscriptions. It is probably at least half, if not two thirds at the moment.
My personal estimations have it at 72-80k, so I disagree with that writer.
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Players don't even need to pay that to join. Amazon.com sells the Good Versus Evil Edition for as low as $2: http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listi...&condition=new|
Originally Posted by Obsidius
Agreed. It's not like we're selling a ton of boxes at the moment. And new players only have to pay $20 to join. Obviously, box sales will go up in July, but I doubt that only a third of the current total is from subscriptions. It is probably at least half, if not two thirds at the moment.
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The Architect Edition sells for only $15 through Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listi...&condition=new
So, for somebody looking to get into City of Heroes, the entry cost is a fair bit lower than $20.
The biggest financial input, other than the subscriptions, that would have shown in the Q1 financial statements would have been the Super Booster Pack... but that was released in Novemember last year and thus would have had the greatest impact in the Q4 2009 results as the majority of booster pack buys are made when the booster pack is brand new: http://www.cityofheroes.com/news/new...per_boost.html
So, it's fairly safe to say that Paragon Studios financial contributions to NCSoft for the Q1 report would have largely been just game subscriptions. From the numbers estimated, it's likely that 90% or more would have been from subscriptions.
That would place the player base at around 90k to 100k is the likely subscribed player base for Q1 figures... which roughly fits how we think the game as been doing.
40k? Its probably on the pessimistic side of the ballbark.
My estimated PCU is about 8000-10000. If we assume at peak 80% is offline that puts it at 40k-50k. Of course those numbers are somewhat higher since there are people hidden but since we don't see PCU numbers anymore. Its just a guess. If we assume 85% is offline that puts it about 53K to 67K. So, 40k to 67k is my rough estimate.
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no actually his comment is |
Originally Posted by TheJazMan
At 40 000?? That is what this massively.com writer estimates.
http://www.massively.com/page/2/ This is kinda disturbing news. I thought we were just under 100 000. That is a rapid decrease in population. Yikes! |
"Doom and gloom? Not hardly. For one thing, assuming that only a third of that represents monthly subscriptions, that still pegs the game at around 40,000 subscribers. That's not a bad number for a six-year-old game, and it's clear that they're not slowing down the development side of things. There are many theories in the thread explaining why the numbers were bad, and they're pretty good logical ideas. But it's still unsettling."
so no, he is saying that as a worst case scenario, the population numbers arent fatal (though 40 k only would be alarming). but that is his absolute worst case scenarion, NOT his actual estimate.
Is it that time of the month already?
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If the Q1-2010 release says Co* generated $2,900,000 (number borrowed from that other thread linked in this thread), and the author believes that only 40,000 subscribers are represented...|
Originally Posted by TheJazMan
At 40 000?? That is what this massively.com writer estimates.
http://www.massively.com/page/2/ This is kinda disturbing news. I thought we were just under 100 000. That is a rapid decrease in population. Yikes! |
(40,000 subscribers * $15 monthly fee) * 3 months = $1,800,000
And booster packs are $10...
40,000 * $10 = $400,000
Where did the remaining $700,000 come from?
For that matter, why would 40,000 people suddenly decide to buy a booster pack in a quarter when no booster packs were released? O_o
Am I missing something (i readily admit that i lack any real understanding of financial data... i can barely follow my monthly checking account statement)? Would pre-purchases of GR account for the $1,100,000 difference between the estimated subscriber numbers and the actual revenue (can't convince myself that the booster pack theory holds any water)? Or is that 40,000 estimate just... well, bat-poo crazy?
no matter what number you put in front of it. the numbers are lower then they ever have been. just agree on that shall we?
In the Grim darkness of the CoX 40K, there is only RWZ!
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It also depends on how they do their accounting. If they're using accrual accounting, they may not recognize the pre-orders as revenue until the goods are actually delivered (i.e. release date). It's considered a liability until then.|
Originally Posted by Luminara
Am I missing something (i readily admit that i lack any real understanding of financial data... i can barely follow my monthly checking account statement)? Would pre-purchases of GR account for the $1,100,000 difference between the estimated subscriber numbers and the actual revenue (can't convince myself that the booster pack theory holds any water)? Or is that 40,000 estimate just... well, bat-poo crazy?
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I have no idea how NCSoft/Paragon does their books, but it's a fairly standard business practice to use accrual instead of cash accounting.
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Originally Posted by OutRage
In the Grim darkness of the CoX 40K, there is only RWZ!
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Originally Posted by Zwillinger
GG, I would tell you that "I am killing you with my mind", but I couldn't find an emoticon to properly express my sentiment.
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Originally Posted by Captain_Photon
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Well alot of Players either got bored and left for another MMo, I am Sure once Going rogue Comes, it's give our players more content to return form other MMo and back to us.
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And issue 19 most likely will continue to bring more back with its end game content.
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I fear it's worse - it's that time of between dev-content releases already.|
Originally Posted by Westley
Is it that time of the month already?
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We'll get these regularly until GR and then they'll abate for 2-4 weeks until we get hit by the doom about GR failing to meet someones expectations of 500k concurrent connections per server.
Tis the way of the MMO.
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Maybe we should be the game to break that way.|
Originally Posted by Judgement_Dave
I fear it's worse - it's that time of between dev-content releases already.
We'll get these regularly until GR and then they'll abate for 2-4 weeks until we get hit by the doom about GR failing to meet someones expectations of 500k concurrent connections per server. Tis the way of the MMO. |
I'm thinking we "Cone of Shame" the doomers.
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This. |
Originally Posted by GreenFIame
Well alot of Players either got bored and left for another MMo, I am Sure once Going rogue Comes, it's give our players more content to return form other MMo and back to us.
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But, as long as new MMOs and console games continue to release, not everyone will be retainable.
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And before that 2-4 weeks, like within days of release (or maybe within days of open beta), we will get the cries of "worst expansion ever" and "GR has killed the game". Rinse and repeat for issue 19... and 20... and 21...|
Originally Posted by Judgement_Dave
I fear it's worse - it's that time of between dev-content releases already.
We'll get these regularly until GR and then they'll abate for 2-4 weeks until we get hit by the doom about GR failing to meet someones expectations of 500k concurrent connections per server. Tis the way of the MMO. |
I'm pretty sure it is a federal requirement that large groups act that way. It's not just a state thing.
At 40 000?? That is what this massively.com writer estimates.
http://www.massively.com/page/2/
This is kinda disturbing news. I thought we were just under 100 000. That is a rapid decrease in population. Yikes!