More fuel for the Rumor Mill
By
Abyssus,
Posted on: 2012-10-20 08:59 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
IMO, if someone is going to buy the game, negotiations will begin in earnest starting around now. There was absolutely no reason for NCsoft to entertain any of the earlier offers, because they were probably soft. With the deadline coming, soft offers will fall away.
Not only does this game have valuable IP, but the player accounts have value as well; in fact, their value may be higher than that of the game itself. If NCsoft is to get their money out of CoH, they'll want to sell the player accounts (with the existing player character information) along with the game IP.
Are you thinking NCsoft never wanted to sell the game? Perhaps.
However, one possible reason for NCsoft choosing to set the expiration of CoH a few months after they closed Paragon Studios is to maintain value while they give suitors time to put together a deal.
If NCsoft wanted to sell CoH/V, they would have done it before announcing it was closing and locking Paragon Studios out. Because it would have been worth a lot more at that point.
Are other people interested in buying it? Sure. As a title it pulled in US$10m in revenue last year. Are the people looking to buy it offering anywhere near what NCsoft would seriously consider? I don't know, but that's a good question to ask.
But unless someone offered a ridiculous figure, I can't see NCsoft selling.
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Not trying to turn this into a political discussion but it's a shame that with so many billionaires out there tossing "ridiculous figures" of money at the presidential campaigns these days that one of them couldn't spare a couple of million to buy CoH and keep it going. Considering that maybe half of these billionaires out there are basically throwing their money away (when you realize that only one side is going to win the race in November) it doesn't seem like much to ask that some of that "wasted" money couldn't be invested on our game. |
Originally Posted by UnSub
But unless someone offered a ridiculous figure, I can't see NCsoft selling.
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UK here but wondering if we couldnt get a presidential endorsement!!!!!
You people are stupid, What kind of company do you expect to want money for something they won't profit off of if they just keep in in the corner? /sarcasm
Don't give me that competition BS. I'd bet the most they would lose from "Competition" of CoH wouldn't even break the millions. The amount to sell the game would be more than enough.
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Your incredulity is improperly calibrated.
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Originally Posted by End Sinister
Whatever offers Tony V knows of seem incredulous at best. A medium to large sized studio would have been free to release some sort of statement when talks fell through or we would have heard something by now through the grapevine.
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Originally Posted by Airhammer
In my industry because of the position I am in and because of my contacts I hear things all the time from various sources and I am often told.. You didnt hear this from me.. or.. This goes no further than this room ( in fact I had such a conversation just this Friday ) and if I went about releasing information or naming sources my channels would shut down and my name would be dirt..
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So with blogs still tagging it as rumor, i take it there's still no solid info about who those investors are/were?
Someone should at least know what the offers were...though i'd imagine $10-20 million in this market and with the state CoX was in, might be a hard sell.
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Despite people still hoping that there will be some savior for City Of Heroes I think this is it for our beloved game. This game has had declining revenue for years and I do agree that the market is working against it being sold in any reasonable capacity. Even if it were saved, I have my doubts that most players would even come back because Paragon Studios won't be at the helm.|
Originally Posted by Pebblebrook
So with blogs still tagging it as rumor, i take it there's still no solid info about who those investors are/were?
Someone should at least know what the offers were...though i'd imagine $10-20 million in this market and with the state CoX was in, might be a hard sell. |
Play while you can guys and never, ever pick up another NC Soft title. I know I won't.
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I actually read that Bluehole Studios, the makers of Tera, are arch-enemies of NCSoft.|
Originally Posted by End Sinister
Despite people still hoping that there will be some savior for City Of Heroes I think this is it for our beloved game. This game has had declining revenue for years and I do agree that the market is working against it being sold in any reasonable capacity. Even if it were saved, I have my doubts that most players would even come back because Paragon Studios won't be at the helm.
Play while you can guys and never, ever pick up another NC Soft title. I know I won't. |
Suddenly, Tera looked so interesting that I started playing it, lol. Every swing of my Lancer's polearm stabs a hole right into NCSoft's wallet. Bahaha! :P
The offers were an insult.
Last verified offer I heard of was $3 million. NCSoft had every right to snub their noses at such a lowball "offer."
There is no "saving" CoH. The offers that were made were ridiculously low and one of the reasons is that there is no one out there with any business sense who would offer what the IP is worth (Well what it WAS worth).
The state of CoH as it stands will not bring in profit to anyone. A HUGE chunk of the player base has already moved on since 8/31. EVEN if CoH were somehow saved they would be lucky to get half of the player base that existed on 8/31.
The era of CoH has come and gone. I just have the emotional stability to recognize that; while others cling to hope and laughable projects (Plan Z). CoH had a great 8+ year run which MANY MMOs cannot say.
FYI for all you "I hate NCSoft" people...if it weren't for NCSoft CoH would have ended a long time ago. The "profit" CoH brought in was not worth their time and they have every right to do what they did...both in choosing to end the game and in choosing not to accept such demeaning offers for the IP. They GAVE the players 3 months of free time...and they did not have to - they could have sunset CoH in just 30 days...so while you bash them remember that!
I realize a lot of people are hurt etc, but at the end of the day CoH is not a community.. it is a game. If your "community" cannot survive the game ending it was never such a huge, great, supportive community you thought it was....
I think what a lot of the people who post here, and other CoH forums, forget is that CoH is NOT reality....it is JUST a game. You can try to paint pretty pictures of a community through testimonials etc...but I have some news for you.. every MMO has a community, every MMO has testimonials, and eventually every MMO will sunset.
The sooner you realize that the toon you RPd with for 8 years was just a toon...the better off you will be.
Here's hoping a few people step back for a second and let reality in...the reality is CoH is closing on 11/30. The reality is that Plan Z will probably never see the light of day. The reality is no one is going to buy CoH. The reality is...most people who can accept CoH for JUST the game that it is/was....have moved on.
You can flame me all you want...for telling the reality of things; because again I realize this is just the internet... and CoH is JUST a game...that is ending.
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Originally Posted by Pebblebrook
So with blogs still tagging it as rumor, i take it there's still no solid info about who those investors are/were?
Someone should at least know what the offers were...though i'd imagine $10-20 million in this market and with the state CoX was in, might be a hard sell. |
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Originally Posted by Paladiamors
I love you, I Burnt the Toast!
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You're willing to disregard responses because this is just the internet, but you're also willing to post on the internet hoping people will actually read it.|
Originally Posted by I Burnt The Toast
You can flame me all you want...for telling the reality of things; because again I realize this is just the internet... and CoH is JUST a game...that is ending.
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Naked narcissism at its finest.
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| I think what a lot of the people who post here, and other CoH forums, forget is that CoH is NOT reality....it is JUST a game. |
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It's "just a game" that you just wrote 460+ words dismissing.|
Originally Posted by I Burnt The Toast
You can flame me all you want...for telling the reality of things; because again I realize this is just the internet... and CoH is JUST a game...that is ending.
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It's "just a game" that you claim unable to find a replacement for.
And it's "just a game" who's community, you included, helped raise several thousand dollars for charity.
I ponder if the "it's just a game" posts I keep seeing from a select few are just attempt at convincing themselves about it...
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Oooh, can you throw a link to that? |
Originally Posted by I Burnt The Toast
Last verified offer I heard of was $3 million. NCSoft had every right to snub their noses at such a lowball "offer."
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And dang, you sure only $3mil? Even if that's just the IP and not IP+studio, that seems too low to be worth the work to transfer ownership.
Only last year, Atari sold Cryptic to PWE for about $50mil but that's with 3 IPs and studio...but still even a third of that is over $16mil.
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Check on the Titan network forums, poster by the name of Ammon chucked something up concerning it.|
Originally Posted by Pebblebrook
Oooh, can you throw a link to that?
And dang, you sure only $3mil? Even if that's just the IP and not IP+studio, that seems too low to be worth the work to transfer ownership. Only last year, Atari sold Cryptic to PWE for about $50mil but that's with 3 IPs and studio...but still even a third of that is over $16mil. |
Cant remember the thread, but I know you can search by poster.
Think you have to be logged in to do searches unless there's another way. I try not to give out any personal info unless i have to.
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If I'm not wrong the "standard" for most industries is for businesses to be priced at about a year-worth of income. I think that would set the sale of Paragon Studios at a minimum price tag of about 8 million.
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Originally Posted by Gangrel_EU
Check on the Titan network forums, poster by the name of Ammon chucked something up concerning it.
Cant remember the thread, but I know you can search by poster. |
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Toast, I agree with everything you said. I just want to make it clear that the only reason I won't buy another NC Soft product is because of what they did to 80 plus people without notice. I'm more anti-corporation than anything in this matter. City Of Heroes is just a game in the end. Thank you for posting one of the rumored offers because I suspected that whoever offered to buy City Of Heroes did not offer enough. I think Tony V wasn't being forthright about the seriousness of the offers as I stated in my previous posts.|
Originally Posted by I Burnt The Toast
The offers were an insult.
Last verified offer I heard of was $3 million. NCSoft had every right to snub their noses at such a lowball "offer." There is no "saving" CoH. The offers that were made were ridiculously low and one of the reasons is that there is no one out there with any business sense who would offer what the IP is worth (Well what it WAS worth). The state of CoH as it stands will not bring in profit to anyone. A HUGE chunk of the player base has already moved on since 8/31. EVEN if CoH were somehow saved they would be lucky to get half of the player base that existed on 8/31. The era of CoH has come and gone. I just have the emotional stability to recognize that; while others cling to hope and laughable projects (Plan Z). CoH had a great 8+ year run which MANY MMOs cannot say. FYI for all you "I hate NCSoft" people...if it weren't for NCSoft CoH would have ended a long time ago. The "profit" CoH brought in was not worth their time and they have every right to do what they did...both in choosing to end the game and in choosing not to accept such demeaning offers for the IP. They GAVE the players 3 months of free time...and they did not have to - they could have sunset CoH in just 30 days...so while you bash them remember that! I realize a lot of people are hurt etc, but at the end of the day CoH is not a community.. it is a game. If your "community" cannot survive the game ending it was never such a huge, great, supportive community you thought it was.... I think what a lot of the people who post here, and other CoH forums, forget is that CoH is NOT reality....it is JUST a game. You can try to paint pretty pictures of a community through testimonials etc...but I have some news for you.. every MMO has a community, every MMO has testimonials, and eventually every MMO will sunset. The sooner you realize that the toon you RPd with for 8 years was just a toon...the better off you will be. Here's hoping a few people step back for a second and let reality in...the reality is CoH is closing on 11/30. The reality is that Plan Z will probably never see the light of day. The reality is no one is going to buy CoH. The reality is...most people who can accept CoH for JUST the game that it is/was....have moved on. You can flame me all you want...for telling the reality of things; because again I realize this is just the internet... and CoH is JUST a game...that is ending. |
As far as Tony V is concerned, his zeal in this matter has hurt his image. Kudos to him for organizing the "Save City Of Heroes" movement, but he should have accepted defeat when it had come. He's coming off more desperate than anything at this point with his "Plan Z". Unless he can raise about 20 to 50 million dollars, minimum, which I doubt, I don't think his plan will ever come to fruition.
I'm pretty much off video games in general after all of this. I don't plan on ever taking them up again like I had with City Of Heroes. I think I'm better off now that this game is closing because I'm spending more time on the things I should. In the end it was a win-win situation for me: I was able to play the game and now the distraction is gone when it needs to be gone.
Out of all of this mess I feel bad for the dev.'s. I have a feeling that the video game industry favors young blood over old to bring in innovative ideas. I'm sure the younger low men and women at Paragon Studios will most likely be able to find work, but how many senior developer positions are out there for all of the senior dev.'s at Paragon? I would wager very few.
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I'm not a business man by any means but that sounds absolutely wrong on so many levels please let me explain myself. |
Originally Posted by Starsman
If I'm not wrong the "standard" for most industries is for businesses to be priced at about a year-worth of income. I think that would set the sale of Paragon Studios at a minimum price tag of about 8 million.
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Ok so say what you saying is true Paragon is pulling 8 mill a year. Well what if only 1 million is profit or even 2 million profit. At 8 million it's gonna take the team that buys the game 4 to 8 years just to pull even. Ok but you could get some savvy business men in there cut costs in all the right places half that cost of development and you may may break even in 2 years and that sounds about where I can think a potential investor would sit industry standard be damned.
Just general question to the forums how long would you want to sit on an 8 year old game before making a profit and still feel comfortable as an investor?
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This will be lost on NCSoft but hopefully not its investors. Posterior anatomy haberdashery in the name of short term profit through accounting tricks can kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.
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Originally Posted by End Sinister
I don't plan on ever taking them up again like I had with City Of Heroes.
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Ok a large portion of the player base has left to go to other games,but here is the question if the IP was bought and the game saved how many would return ?
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My statement was based on some stuff I have read, there is additional things that some industries take into account, like inventory (may be meaningless for software but replaceable with subscriber base) |
Originally Posted by Lucky666
I'm not a business man by any means but that sounds absolutely wrong on so many levels please let me explain myself.
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Some industries DO base the purchase on 100% of the profits for the last year but ignoring all inventory and stock. I think the lowest end of that scale I saw while hunting for information was 60% + inventory value.
Mind you, there is a gotcha for this one title and its that its already killed. Its not the same to attempt to sell an ongoing business than to sell one you already closed down doors on and refunded all customers their money.
Again I have to say I dont know if this applies to software. I was not able to find out enough information on such acquisitions with enough information on how much the business in question did on the specified year.
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Here you are.|
Originally Posted by Pebblebrook
Think you have to be logged in to do searches unless there's another way. I try not to give out any personal info unless i have to.
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Internet rumour that Steam (? - shouldn't that be Valve?) offered US$3m plus profit share to NCsoft. Which would be insulting, if true.
You can add it to the rumour that Trion had up the US$80m (?) to spend on acquiring CoH/V.
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Which is why I would chalk this up to the "rumor" column.|
Originally Posted by UnSub
Here you are.
Internet rumour that Steam (? - shouldn't that be Valve?) offered US$3m plus profit share to NCsoft. Which would be insulting, if true. You can add it to the rumour that Trion had up the US$80m (?) to spend on acquiring CoH/V. |
Valve's a big, respectable company. And it would take them a considerable amount of resources such to do the due diligence and make an offer. It'd be a terrible waste of their time to even make such a lowball offer that they know would be rejected.
And considering Trion is still raising funding from their own investors (last year they raised $100M+), it's hard to imagine them suddenly having $80M to acquire COH, especially when they're trying to launch two more games of their own.
They've never said the game was no longer profitable (especially since, you know, it was), just that it doesn't fit with the new direction they want to take their company in. Unless I missed an announcement somewhere.
.. though, in a sense, I guess that's another reason not to sell an IP they "know" (by which I mean "wrongly think") is going to be in competition with their other titles, even if only relatively minor compared to the numbers they want. (And I say "wrongly think" because it presumes that the death of CoH will immediately send all of its players to NC Soft's other games, which is clearly not going to happen)