No more driver's licenses by 2040?
By
Aggelakis,
Posted on: 2012-09-18 13:45 in Comic and Hero-Villain Culture
What's next, the Verbal Morality Statute and Taco Bells as far as the eye can see?
YeahNO.
It's a trust factor. And I don't trust software like this to NOT have flaws.
Hence, at some point, manual intervention. Hence, drivers licenses.
And you think the states are going to just give up license revenue?
Pffft!
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Not going to happen.
By 2040, there won't be any energy to run cars, and roads will all be under water anyway. 
I really should do something about this signature.
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Honestly, I trust a robot car more than actual drivers based just on what I see on the road every day.
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Originally Posted by Hyperstrike
YeahNO.
It's a trust factor. And I don't trust software like this to NOT have flaws. Hence, at some point, manual intervention. Hence, drivers licenses. And you think the states are going to just give up license revenue? Pffft! |
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At this point, I just want my hover/flying car. Of course, those will never be allowed within the U.S. due to paranoia concerns and the sheer amount of paperwork involved in just going to the grocery store for some milk.
They'll never get rid of driver's licenses, they'll just make them harder and more expensive to get.
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Michigan going under Sharia law is before that.
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Originally Posted by Dark One
What's next, the Verbal Morality Statute and Taco Bells as far as the eye can see?
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The first step in being sane is to admit that you are insane.
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This, with the caveat that to really do this right, you'll want support systems built into the roadway. And it won't be cost-effective to build up back streets and rural roads so you'll need to be on manual in those areas.
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Originally Posted by DarkGob
Honestly, I trust a robot car more than actual drivers based just on what I see on the road every day.
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No, multipass:|
Originally Posted by Dark One
What's next, the Verbal Morality Statute and Taco Bells as far as the eye can see?
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Originally Posted by Dispari
I don't know why Dink thinks she's not as sexy as Jay was. In 5 posts she's already upstaged his entire career.
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Well, its almost impossible to make them any easier to get.
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Originally Posted by Father Xmas
They'll never get rid of driver's licenses, they'll just make them harder and more expensive to get.
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This sounds like a nightmare to me. No control over a vehicle? My vehicle being controlled by some central agency? No thanks.
About the license thing, I can see the Government going for this. In the scenario described in the article the Government will know where every car is at all times. That means they know where all the people are at all times. Again... no thanks.
My postings to this forum are not to be used as data in any research study without my express written consent.
The total mileage between all the Google cars is now something like 400k miles. And they have only had a couple accidents. Both of which happened when a human was controlling the car.
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Originally Posted by DarkGob
Honestly, I trust a robot car more than actual drivers based just on what I see on the road every day.
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But do you trust a robot car, with unspecified programming, more than your own skill behind the wheel in an potential accident?
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That depends. Humans tend to get panicky in such situations. They may accidently hit the gas rather than the brake or turn wrong or just flat out not know what to do. If a robot car can analyze the information fast enough, it could make the proper decisions on what to do.
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Originally Posted by Hyperstrike
But do you trust a robot car, with unspecified programming, more than your own skill behind the wheel in an potential accident?
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Originally Posted by Dark One
That depends. Humans tend to get panicky in such situations. They may accidently hit the gas rather than the brake or turn wrong or just flat out not know what to do. If a robot car can analyze the information fast enough, it could make the proper decisions on what to do.
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No.
Not "humans".
"You".
In the event of an accident, which would you RATHER be in charge of a 1-2 ton chunk of steel, aluminum and plastic? A computer or you?
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I absolutely would rather have the computer be under control. Computers don't get tired. Computers don't get distracted. Computers don't get bored, or hungry. Computers obey traffic laws, even laws I don't know exist. Computers don't get lost. Computers can see in 360 degrees and don't have blind spots. Computers can potentially use sonar and other sensory inputs I don't have. Computers don't get intoxicated (well, I don't either, but some people do). Computers have a reaction time in microseconds, I have a reaction time in tenths of seconds.
On the other hand, computers can have bugs. I don't have bugs, other than all the aforementioned things that could be considered bugs, and would definitely be considered a bug if a computer every exhibited any of the behavior humans do all the time.
As for trusting a computer to drive the car, if you have Anti-lock brakes, your car already has a computer deciding how and if you stop when you hit the brakes. Fancier cars can quite likely take nearly complete control of your vehicle, should they be so inclined.
A computer driving car does not have to be perfect. It just has to be better on average than people. Liability for accidents would shift to the car companies, who would buy insurance at a lower rate than people currently pay and roll the cost into the car.
Personally, I hope this becomes available by the time my parents are no longer able to drive themselves. We recently had issues with my Grandmother and Grandfather still attempting to drive despite the fact that he has semi-advanced Alzheimer's and she can't lift her arms to the top of the steering wheel. We ended up getting his license revoked, but it was a giant mess, and she can and does still drive. Everyone would be safer if they were in a self-driving car. Hopefully, by the time my dad turns 80, I won't have to try and get his license taken away for his and everyone else's safety-I'll just get him a car that drives itself.
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Originally Posted by Steel_Golem
I absolutely would rather have the computer be under control. Computers don't get tired. Computers don't get distracted.
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| Computers don't get bored, or hungry. |
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| Computers obey traffic laws, even laws I don't know exist. |
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| Computers don't get lost. |
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| Computers can see in 360 degrees and don't have blind spots. |
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| Computers can potentially use sonar and other sensory inputs I don't have. |
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| Computers don't get intoxicated (well, I don't either, but some people do). |
Who would YOU rather have in control in a potential accident? You or a piece of program code?
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Absolutely a computer, assuming that it is a well tested piece of software with a reliable history of operation at a below average rate of accidents. I don't think they should just randomly start making cars drive themselves without significant testing, but I do believe that it is possible to create and test a computer program that can handle accident cases better than I can. My car's computer already seizes control in an emergency stop situation to apply the brakes more effectively, and I thank it for that, as I can think of at least one situation where I would have very likely slammed into the back of a police car if it didn't. Although I don't have one, I have seen advertisements for cars on TV that will automatically stop if you try and run something over while backing up, and I don't think I would really be concerned about that either. These are just the beginning baby steps towards the fully robotic car, and they are here now. I don't see any reason transitioning to a fully automated car would be bad, assuming it has received enough testing to be considered safe and reliable.
| Who would YOU rather have in control in a potential accident? You or a piece of program code? |
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Ah, that's the catch isn't it. Everyone thinks they can do better than the computer and for that matter everyone else on the road.|
Originally Posted by Hyperstrike
In the event of an accident, which would you RATHER be in charge of a 1-2 ton chunk of steel, aluminum and plastic? A computer or you?
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I would rather be in control than a computer, but I would rather a computer be in control than you. The question is would you cede control over your car, if that allowed you to upgrade the drivers of all other cars to computer control.
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Computer. Without question. I know that I would panic and just make things worse. I would be second-guessing myself after the fact and wondering if I had done things just a little bit differently, would things have been better. Especially if said accident resulted in injury or fatality to myself or others.|
Originally Posted by Hyperstrike
No.
Not "humans". "You". In the event of an accident, which would you RATHER be in charge of a 1-2 ton chunk of steel, aluminum and plastic? A computer or you? |
Also, if having the computer operator would reduce/eliminate my liability and insurance costs, it would be in my car in a heartbeat. I probably wouldn't be a first-adopter, since it would take a while for those cost reductions to make their way to the end-user.
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As someone who spent a few years driving for a living, I have to give you props for admitting your shortcomings. It's a cliche that everyone thinks s/he's a great driver, but it's a cliche because there's a lot of truth in it. Unfortunately, most people (and I include myself here) are prone to a lot of really unsafe habits on the road.|
Originally Posted by Dark One
Computer. Without question. I know that I would panic and just make things worse. I would be second-guessing myself after the fact and wondering if I had done things just a little bit differently, would things have been better. Especially if said accident resulted in injury or fatality to myself or others.
Also, if having the computer operator would reduce/eliminate my liability and insurance costs, it would be in my car in a heartbeat. I probably wouldn't be a first-adopter, since it would take a while for those cost reductions to make their way to the end-user. |
More to the point of the topic: I wouldn't trust a computer to drive for me, but that's largely because I don't have faith that technology is up to the task right now. In principle? In a world where everyone's car is controlled by a competent robotic operator? Sure, why not.
The main danger of driving is that you can't control your environment. No matter how good a driver you are (or think you are), you are implicitly trusting the people around you to act in a rational and predictable manner. You can reduce your risk by increasing your following distance, reducing your speed, etc, but the only 100% safe driver is the guy sitting in a parking lot well off the road. So anyway, the question here (whether you'd allow AI to control your car) implies that the behavior of all/most (robotic) drivers will be more consistent and thus predictable. In other words, the degree of difficulty for my robotic driver will be lower in a world full of robotic drivers than the degree of difficulty is for me in a world full of human drivers.
That's a nice idea, at least in theory.
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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze
Nice build
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I may not trust a computer more than my own skill behind the wheel, but I certainly trust a computer more than everyone else's bad driving. |
Originally Posted by Hyperstrike
But do you trust a robot car, with unspecified programming, more than your own skill behind the wheel in an potential accident?
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If I have to give up my own control to get that, it's probably a good trade.And I have to admit it would be really tempting to use it anyway, especially on the drive home where I typically only can go 5-10mph on the highway anyway thanks to all the traffic. Kick back and surf on my phone while I let the robot deal with that mess.
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Ah, that's the catch isn't it. Everyone thinks they can do better than the computer and for that matter everyone else on the road.
I would rather be in control than a computer, but I would rather a computer be in control than you. The question is would you cede control over your car, if that allowed you to upgrade the drivers of all other cars to computer control. |
It's not that I think I can do better than a computer running at its best.
It's an issue of control for me. And I quite simply don't trust it "enough" to cede that level of control. Even with the very real possibility of several orders of magnitude increase in overall driver safety.
Computerized ABS, engine control, parking, etc? I can handle that. Actual driver control of the car on a roadway someplace? No.
Computers are capable of amazing things, I love 'em (most of the time) and wouldn't have a job right now without them. But they're not intelligent (not that everyone behind the wheel is either), and are subject to Garbage-In-Garbage-Out.
Maybe this makes me an anachronism. But hey, I can live with it.
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At some point, if the technology advances far enough (which it will), I could see the choice being taken away. If computer drivers saved thousands of lives per year, I could see many legislatures mandating that everyone use them.|
Originally Posted by Hyperstrike
It's not that I think I can do better than a computer running at its best.
It's an issue of control for me. And I quite simply don't trust it "enough" to cede that level of control. Even with the very real possibility of several orders of magnitude increase in overall driver safety. Computerized ABS, engine control, parking, etc? I can handle that. Actual driver control of the car on a roadway someplace? No. Computers are capable of amazing things, I love 'em (most of the time) and wouldn't have a job right now without them. But they're not intelligent (not that everyone behind the wheel is either), and are subject to Garbage-In-Garbage-Out. Maybe this makes me an anachronism. But hey, I can live with it. |
They'll probably start with young drivers and very old drivers, but I can see a day when a car will take you anywhere you want to go. But it won't let you take it anywhere!
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http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/18/tech/i...html?hpt=hp_t2
Autonomous cars........AUTOBOTS! TRANSFORM AND ROLL OUT!
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