A Business Focused View of NCSoft's Actions


Adeon Hawkwood

 

Posted

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Originally Posted by Oedipus_Tex View Post
The most damaging part of this debacle may be for MMO players in general. I think we all can accept the fact that MMOs close, but if the way this game was closed is considered standard and acceptable in this industry, we're all screwed, no matter what game we're playing.
Aye. It's the death knell for MMoG player investment, especially anything NCSoft. Basically, it says if you play an MMO, don't get emotionally invested in the game or your characters, which is entirely what MMO subscriptions are based on.


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Posted

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Originally Posted by I Burnt The Toast View Post
Uhh no I won't be telling people to avoid NCSoft. MMOs close it is the nature of the beast. CoH had 8+ years which is a good run.

There were not 100,000 signatures to Save CoH - try... 21,088 as of today - NOT an impressive amount imo for such a "healthy" game.

CoH would have been more viable had Project X never happened. As it stands it was barely profitable due to the excessive staff.

My confidence in MMOs has not been eroded in the slightest. MMOs require players...they require profit that meets the demands of the publisher. If they can't do that then they will be closed. NCSoft gave a 90 day sunset which is more than a lot of MMOs that have closed can say.
I'll assume you also didn't sign the petition to save the game, but I think the vast majority of the people that signed that petition will steer people clear of NCSoft. If you fall in the tiny minority be happy for yourself, your an individual.

I meant to say even 100,000 signatures (if we had got 80,000 more) wouldn't change anyone's mind.

I'm pretty sure CoH had more players than Everquest and a lot of MMO's. So there is no magic minimum number of players that CoH had too few players to keep the game going.

I do think MMO's eventually die, but CoH didn't look like a game dying. The population seems to be steady at what it has been for the last two years or so. New content has been coming out faster than ever. For a dying game you'd expect new content to be coming out slower than ever.

CoH hit a critical mass and was big enough to support itself for the immediate future. It would've been my hope that if CoH died it was CoH2 that killed it.

North America also has a very viable market for a game like CoH, no marketing has coincided with the releases of blockbuster Super Hero movies.

But with no real option for Super Hero MMO, the population has no substitute-like place to go. Most people do not consider Champions Online or DCUniverse to be rough equivalents to CoH. And because of genre we aren't just going to go to WoW and be happy there.

Project X was not CoH's fault, unless project X is CoH2. (Rumors are to the contrary)

If the problem really was excessive staff, you'd expect a dying game would substantially cut staff and reassess the viability after reductions in staff.

Either way, personally I see lots of things that could've been done to allow NCSoft to make money on CoH, that were not done. CoH though groundbreaking in so many ways didn't get the same treatment that Everquest received. And to the average gamer, there was no way to see how or why CoH isn't as viable now as it was two years ago.


 

Posted

You assume VERY wrong. Not only did I sign the petition but I CONSTANTLY tweeted about it every day. I was very much for SAVECOH until approx a week ago when it became clear that no amount of letters or tweets were going to Save CoH. NCSoft made their decision and instead of continuing in an effort that will be fruitless I stopped.

Heck I even got a few co-workers to sign it who have never played CoH.

These boards irk me when people assume so much about people they have no idea about

I have no problem with NCSoft as they were the ones who allowed me to play CoH for 7+ years. I was not delusional and knew CoH would close eventually.
From my standpoint the population was noticeably declining within the past 2 years - many of my global friends went on to other games and these were people who had played 5-6 years.

You and I both can think of ways for CoH to make money, but then again we also do not head a billion+ corporation and know everything that went into the decision...so yeah it's easy for us to say NCSoft was wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Talionis View Post
I'll assume you also didn't sign the petition to save the game, but I think the vast majority of the people that signed that petition will steer people clear of NCSoft. If you fall in the tiny minority be happy for yourself, your an individual.

I meant to say even 100,000 signatures (if we had got 80,000 more) wouldn't change anyone's mind.

I'm pretty sure CoH had more players than Everquest and a lot of MMO's. So there is no magic minimum number of players that CoH had too few players to keep the game going.

I do think MMO's eventually die, but CoH didn't look like a game dying. The population seems to be steady at what it has been for the last two years or so. New content has been coming out faster than ever. For a dying game you'd expect new content to be coming out slower than ever.

CoH hit a critical mass and was big enough to support itself for the immediate future. It would've been my hope that if CoH died it was CoH2 that killed it.

North America also has a very viable market for a game like CoH, no marketing has coincided with the releases of blockbuster Super Hero movies.

But with no real option for Super Hero MMO, the population has no substitute-like place to go. Most people do not consider Champions Online or DCUniverse to be rough equivalents to CoH. And because of genre we aren't just going to go to WoW and be happy there.

Project X was not CoH's fault, unless project X is CoH2. (Rumors are to the contrary)

If the problem really was excessive staff, you'd expect a dying game would substantially cut staff and reassess the viability after reductions in staff.

Either way, personally I see lots of things that could've been done to allow NCSoft to make money on CoH, that were not done. CoH though groundbreaking in so many ways didn't get the same treatment that Everquest received. And to the average gamer, there was no way to see how or why CoH isn't as viable now as it was two years ago.


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Originally Posted by Paladiamors View Post
I love you, I Burnt the Toast!

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by I Burnt The Toast View Post
You assume VERY wrong. Not only did I sign the petition but I CONSTANTLY tweeted about it every day. I was very much for SAVECOH until approx a week ago when it became clear that no amount of letters or tweets were going to Save CoH. NCSoft made their decision and instead of continuing in an effort that will be fruitless I stopped.

Heck I even got a few co-workers to sign it who have never played CoH.

These boards irk me when people assume so much about people they have no idea about

I have no problem with NCSoft as they were the ones who allowed me to play CoH for 7+ years. I was not delusional and knew CoH would close eventually.
From my standpoint the population was noticeably declining within the past 2 years - many of my global friends went on to other games and these were people who had played 5-6 years.

You and I both can think of ways for CoH to make money, but then again we also do not head a billion+ corporation and know everything that went into the decision...so yeah it's easy for us to say NCSoft was wrong.
+1.

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And victory is all but a dead zone besides the few old guards there that do their best to entertain lookers.


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Posted

I see this is still going.

I wondered if anyone was actually going to take a business-focused view of NCSoft's actions...

Here's one.

Revenue for the past two years for CoH has been slowly declining, aside from a brief bump when Freedom launched.

Now why did NCSoft invest Paragon resources in doing Freedom? Was it to make less money? Was it to make the same amount of money? If it were either of those, wouldn't they have just kept putting out content instead?

Now why would a company make a significant change like implementing a F2P model? Would you say a company that makes a move like that is a) satisfied with the revenue of their product or b) dissatisfied with the revenue of their product?

Considering the risk involved, I'd say a radical move like a shift to F2P is an indication that NCSoft was dissatisfied with the revenue from CoH. And make no mistake, changing your revenue model like that is a major business risk - they could have killed the game right there.

So, add it up.

NCSoft unhappy with the revenue from CoH.
NCSoft invests considerable effort to implement Freedom.
CoH revenue does not improve.

Given that, it's a constant mystery to me how the people at Paragon could possibly have thought that things were going well. They may not have thought it was code red, but there's no way to realistically paint this as "going well."

Whether this game, or Paragon, was profitable or not is debatable.

Whether this game was meeting expectations is not.


 

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Originally Posted by Brillig View Post
Whether this game was meeting expectations is not.
And you know exactly what their expectations were, Krezkin? I mean, conjecture is a kind of evidence, but where's the solid facts beyond 'we're going in a different direction'?


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Is there really evidence for anything from either side? Anyone really have information directly from the inside or an inside source?

So far, the only solid thing we have is NCSoft for some reason did not like what they see and decided to end it. The reason seems to be mostly pure speculation at this point or maybe it's it's all of the above or none of the above, or really as NCSoft said, the only inside and only ones that know the facts and is the horses mouth source said, to streamline the product line. So far their statement is the as close to a fact we have right now. COh did not fit within that streamline process so it had to go.


-Female Player-
Quote:
Originally Posted by mauk2 View Post
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks."
I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy View Post
Is there really evidence for anything from either side? Anyone really have information directly from the inside or an inside source?

So far, the only solid thing we have is NCSoft for some reason did not like what they see and decided to end it. The reason seems to be mostly pure speculation at this point or maybe it's it's all of the above or none of the above, or really as NCSoft said, the only inside and only ones that know the facts and is the horses mouth source said, to streamline the product line. So far their statement is the as close to a fact we have right now. COh did not fit within that streamline process so it had to go.
Exactly. ... Wait. I'm actually agreeing with E_L.


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Originally Posted by SpyralPegacyon View Post
Exactly. ... Wait. I'm actually agreeing with E_L.
It is truely the end of the world then.


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Quote:
Originally Posted by mauk2 View Post
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks."
I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

 

Posted

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Originally Posted by Brillig View Post
I wondered if anyone was actually going to take a business-focused view of NCSoft's actions...
You want a business-focused view? Try this one for size.

NCsoft is developing Wildstar, a new MMO after CoH has shut down. It means that they're investing heavily into making a game that starts at square one like every other MMO with the same content crunch that breaks well over two thirds of MMO startups.

What would the ROI be if the investment in Wildstar's development was used to advertise CoH, an eight year mature MMO with the amount of content and gameplay balancing experience to match?


 

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Originally Posted by Quinch View Post
What would the ROI be if the investment in Wildstar's development was used to advertise CoH, an eight year mature MMO with the amount of content and gameplay balancing experience to match?
Probably not financially worth it to be honest.

Now, if that $50million was spent to rework and improve on City of heroes *as well as* also advertising (the bulk for development work), then you could *possibly* be onto something, but it would still be a very large risk, and no way in any shape or form guaranteed to work.

Maybe a 1 in 100 chance of it working... possibly...


 

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Originally Posted by Gangrel_EU View Post
Probably not financially worth it to be honest.

Now, if that $50million was spent to rework and improve on City of heroes
Fifty million dollars? That's... kind of a huge number. Where'd you get it?


 

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Originally Posted by Quinch View Post
Fifty million dollars? That's... kind of a huge number. Where'd you get it?
I am going for $50million to be the *total* budget of development from start to finish for Wildstar.

And going by a 2003 Gamasutra article it was saying then that they *easily* exceeded $10million.

So, just 10 years later, due to rising wages and in general development costs, $50million doesn't seem so far fetched.

Warhammer Online had a rumoured budget of $100-$200million. Tabula Rasa was rumoured to cost over $100million.

So from that, even if you halve what i suggested, down to $25million... that is *still* a lot of money to be poured into City of Heroes, and in my mind, it would probably be better to burn the money over the winter months (at least then you can stay warm!)

Not saying that it would be a lost cause, but i think it would be a *very* bad investment. Even if the player base increased 5 fold, it would take at *least* 2 years to recoup that initial investment. (Assuming that the *current* profit is at $2million/year).

Do you think that pumping that amount of money into the game, could possibly increase the player base by over 500%?


 

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Originally Posted by Gangrel_EU View Post
I am going for $50million to be the *total* budget of development from start to finish for Wildstar.

And going by a 2003 Gamasutra article it was saying then that they *easily* exceeded $10million.

So, just 10 years later, due to rising wages and in general development costs, $50million doesn't seem so far fetched.
Wow.

Okay.

Let me change my question then - if NCsoft had invested a fraction of what it cost to develop Wildstar etc. etc....


 

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Originally Posted by Quinch View Post
Wow.

Okay.

Let me change my question then - if NCsoft had invested a fraction of what it cost to develop Wildstar etc. etc....
Honestly, with a larger advertising budget, I am not so sure. Probably not all that much of a noticeable difference though to be honest. You might get a an increase at the start, but then you will suffer player retention issues (which is something that ALL MMO's suffer from), and back onto a decline again. It would be a short term success if anything.

And you have to remember that ideally you would be advertising *all* the time (and not just when Issues go live, although those are when you ramp it up).

*shrugs* To be honest, after 8 years of life, chances are you would have already gotten a lot of those who were already going to play the game, and advertising new expansions/issues helps, but you have to retain your *current* player base whilst getting the new ones in... and ideally get *more* players in then old players leaving.

Sure, Eve Online is a slight exception to this rule (for many years, they actually had an increasing player base), but I believe that they have finally plateaued in terms of subscriber numbers (ie new players in = old players leaving).


 

Posted

The descent continues for NCSoft. They're hovering around their 52 week low.

Will the axe fall on another studio?


Please buff Ice Control.

 

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Down down down their stock keeps going. Hasn't been this low since April 2010.

Guess 3Q report wasn't what investors wanted to hear.

I guess the new direction they cited for closing Paragon was 'down'.


Please buff Ice Control.

 

Posted

Paragon wasn't a big part of NCSoft. The closing of Paragon BARELY made a blip on 8/31 in S. Korea. There has been no mention of Paragon/CoH in South Korean news since. Hell the whole shut down was barely a blip in US news.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkCurrent View Post
Down down down their stock keeps going. Hasn't been this low since April 2010.

Guess 3Q report wasn't what investors wanted to hear.

I guess the new direction they cited for closing Paragon was 'down'.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladiamors View Post
I love you, I Burnt the Toast!

 

Posted

So if Paragon was a tiny part of their business and it mattered virtually nothing to their financials what do you suspect was the reason for closing it?

Closure seemed to imply it was hurting the company somehow and had to go.


Please buff Ice Control.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkCurrent View Post
So if Paragon was a tiny part of their business and it mattered virtually nothing to their financials what do you suspect was the reason for closing it?

Closure seemed to imply it was hurting the company somehow and had to go.
They closed it because the secret project (which is something like the third project Paragon had tried developing) didn't look like it would be a success. Which may have been defined as "a success in the Korea/Asia" market.


 

Posted

I'm not making that up - the data is out there. I believe CoH accounted for a whopping 2% of NCSoft revenue. They closed it because it was a slowly degrading MMO that was not meeting the profits they wanted it to.... This has been discussed over and over.

As for the S. Korean press. I am from South Korea and still have family there who have "monitored" the news for me and there was a BLIP about it on 8/31 and nothing since. NCSoft is a S. Korean company whose main revenue comes from outside the US. A 50,000 sub MMO in the US is not a factor to S. Koreans nor NCSoft's stock price no matter what people like to think

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkCurrent View Post
So if Paragon was a tiny part of their business and it mattered virtually nothing to their financials what do you suspect was the reason for closing it?

Closure seemed to imply it was hurting the company somehow and had to go.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladiamors View Post
I love you, I Burnt the Toast!

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkCurrent View Post
So if Paragon was a tiny part of their business and it mattered virtually nothing to their financials what do you suspect was the reason for closing it?

Closure seemed to imply it was hurting the company somehow and had to go.
My speculation has been that Someone Important (major shareholder like Nexon, major debt holder) went to the CEO and said "Those last numbers disturb us, do something significant like closing a game to show us you're serious about the situation or else." It explains the rush to close it without any warning, and the lack of a coherent statement about why.

Another bit of speculation I heard is that there have been some shakeups within the company (as shown by the major sale of stock to Nexon), and there was a champion at NCSoft HQ that lost his ability to protect the game. The guy who landed at top - it's not that he had a particular grudge against CoH, but killing the pet project of the guy you just toppled is a way of showing your new strength and maybe a little revenge.

Neither are great reasons (we were closed as a symbol or a pawn), but they seem to explain the "bolt from the blue" as the way humans sometimes act.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by GadgetDon View Post
My speculation has been that Someone Important (major shareholder like Nexon, major debt holder) went to the CEO and said "Those last numbers disturb us, do something significant like closing a game to show us you're serious about the situation or else." It explains the rush to close it without any warning, and the lack of a coherent statement about why.

Another bit of speculation I heard is that there have been some shakeups within the company (as shown by the major sale of stock to Nexon), and there was a champion at NCSoft HQ that lost his ability to protect the game. The guy who landed at top - it's not that he had a particular grudge against CoH, but killing the pet project of the guy you just toppled is a way of showing your new strength and maybe a little revenge.

Neither are great reasons (we were closed as a symbol or a pawn), but they seem to explain the "bolt from the blue" as the way humans sometimes act.
We have to remember that NCsoft had access to information about CoH we didn't have. I suspect that the game was in the process of transitioning to a lower plateau again, and NCsoft no longer trusted assurances from paragon studios about the next big thing.


 

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Originally Posted by I Burnt The Toast View Post
I'm not making that up - the data is out there. I believe CoH accounted for a whopping 2% of NCSoft revenue. They closed it because it was a slowly degrading MMO that was not meeting the profits they wanted it to.... This has been discussed over and over.
Except closing it because it's slowly degrading and not quite measuring up comes with lots of hints and foreshadowing before the bomb hits, and it's no surprise when it happen. This was a huge surprise to the players and the workers.

I'll grant that we were the weakest link in the company so if management decided "somethings got to go" it would be CoH and maybe even that it's surprising there wasn't more of a push to change things.

But there's one thing that absolutely convinces me it wasn't a cold rational decision. If they'd waited just one more month before dropping the boom, GW2 would have been comfortably launched and the copies sold before they had to deal with any backlash from CoH closing. Maybe they didn't expect us to be as noisy as we've been, but it weakens the message of "see how we're a strong powerful company launching this great new game" to say "Oh, and we're closing this other game"


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
We have to remember that NCsoft had access to information about CoH we didn't have. I suspect that the game was in the process of transitioning to a lower plateau again, and NCsoft no longer trusted assurances from paragon studios about the next big thing.
When management is unhappy about that, the first thing that happens is big changes. If, say, they'd said "Oh, and everything we said about I25, forget that. We've got an exciting new direction planned..." I'd find it more likely.


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