I could certainly see the LotG +Recharge, both the recipe and the enhancement, being included in an index.
Perhaps some of the key rare invention salvage, Rikti Alloy as an example, would make sense.
You're probably going to see less variation on a daily basis with items such as these. But, are you also interested in items that fluctuate fairly widely in a shorter time span? If so, maybe a few common invention salvage items, like Alchemical Silver?
Save Paragon one more time! http://www.cohtitan.com/forum/index....ic,4877.0.html
Petition to end shutting down CoH:
http://www.change.org/petitions/ncso...city-of-heroes
-- Common Accuracy (level 25 and level 50)
-- Common Damage (level 25 and level 50)
-- Luck Charm (low level common salvage, used in freakin' everything at low levels)
-- Fortune (high level common salvage, used in half of freakin' everything at high levels).
These pieces all move like hotcakes, although a probably large percentage of the speed at which they move is due to flipping. Their fluctuation in prices seem to match market usage in general very well, and by looking at both low level and high level pieces it will show fluctuation in population between levels. New low level content will decrease the prices of high level pieces and increase the price of low level prices; vice-versa for new high-level content.
You could also do LotG +rech but its price will do nothing but drop as they introduce more, easier ways to get it.
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Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Dispari
I don't know why Dink thinks she's not as sexy as Jay was. In 5 posts she's already upstaged his entire career.
|
How about... I don't know, Power 10 common IOs? Level 50 maybe. Or 25... or both?
I'd want to include all items that have always been in high demand, such as the LotG unique. Even if its supply is going up thanks to multiple ways of getting it, I doubt that will make players want it any less, so the demand for it will still be the same.
Also... maybe you can find out once and for all just what exactly is going on with Alchemical Silver salvage... >.>
Ask again in two weeks after the converters flatten the curve on a ton of overpriced spikes.
Quote:
This isn't a short-term question... I expect to be able to ask the question next|
Originally Posted by Blue_Centurion
Ask again in two weeks after the converters flatten the curve on a ton of overpriced spikes.
|
year and/or the year after etc. (assuming that whole Mayan Doom thing doesn't
happen
) and hopefully, have a year or two of actual history data with whichto help answer it.
Some good suggestions so far, and the intent is to have items across all the
categories. While, like the DJIA, I'd expect short term fluctations to be visible,
I'm far more interested in the long-term trend of the indexes (we're pretty good,
I think, at attributing short-term cause & effect swings when they occur)
Regards,
4
I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.
Well, I was a bit curt, as usual for me. But my point is there is going to be a huge market shift over the next month. The smart marketeers are already heavily invested in their strategies for this "New World Order" And there is no going back. All data pre-converter is almost useless in a post-converter world. Unless you want to take the time to average tons of data, and the more you try to average it based on certain assumptions the more you muddy the data.
You will do better starting with data about 2 weeks post converter (when the markets have stabilized) and then track key indices (the CityofX 100?)
(Salvage) Luck Charms, Alchemical Gold, Spell Scroll
(Insps) Phenomenal Luck, Resurgence
(Enh) Lvl 25 End Red and End Mod
They ALL float down here. When you're down here with us, you'll float too!
@Starflier
Some items I check prices on regularly...
High end recipes:
Numina's +Reg/+Rec (30)
Miracle +Rec (20)
Luck of the Gambler Def/global Rech (25)
Kinetic Combat Def/Rech (35)
Kinetic Combat Def/End/Rech (35)
Ragnarok Acc/Dam/Rech (P)
Blessing of the Zephyr KB prot (10)
Obliteration Acc/Dam/End/Rech (50)
Low end recipes:
Doctored Wounds Heal/Rech (50)
Positron's Blast Acc/Dam/End (50)
Performance Shifter Chance for +END (50)
Thunderstrike Acc/Dam/Rech (33)
Thunderstrike Acc/Dam/End (33)
Salvage:
Alchemical Silver
Chronal Skip
Commercial Cybernetic
Essence of the Furies
Pangean Soil
Platinum
Kosmos
Global: @Calorie
MA Arcs in 4-star purgatory: Four in a Row (#2198) - Hostile Takeover (#69714) - Red Harvest (#268305)
Ok, frankly this is something that is a good idea...
Here is what I already watch...
There are 5 markets involved:
Commodity Market
(this is the core of the commodity market, honestly they should all be watched and a monthly average taken)
-Luck Charm
-Pangean Soil
-Diefic Weapon
-Essence of the Furies
-Gold
-Hamidon Goo
-Magical Conspiracy
-Regenerating Flesh
-Scientific Theory
-Strand of Fate
Standard Invention Enhancements
Each type of Standard Invention Enhancement at each 10 spot average taken after a month.
Invention Set Ehancements ((levels 35, 40, 45, 50) (Averages taken over a month and graphed)
-Luck of the Gambler +Global Rech
-Obliteration (All)
-Performance Shifter (All with emphasis (weekly graph) on the proc)
-Freebird +Stealth (Monthly)
-Doctored Wounds (all)
-Miracle (Special Emphasis on Proc)
-Numina's Convalesnce (Special Emphasis on Proc)
-Regenerative Tissue (Special emphasis on Proc)
-Basilisk's Gaze (Proc)
-Essence of Curare (all)
-Unbounded Leap (+Stealth only)
-Kinetic Combat (all)
-Touch of Death (all)
-Scirocco's Dervish (all)
-Devastation (all)
- Aegis (all)
- Reactive Armor (All)
- Steadfast Protection (Knockback Protection)
-Celerity (+Stealth)
-Positron's Blast (all)
-Perfect Zinger (All (Emphasis on Proc))
-Mocking Beratement (all)
-Time & Space (+Stealth)
-Gaussian's Synchronized Fire-Control (all)
-Blessing of the Zephyr
Purples
ALL OF THEM NEED TO BE WATCHED
PVP IOs
This is broken into two different markets,
the one on the auctionhouse, which never moves from 2Billion for the good stuff
and... the one on the boards, the so called grey zone market... which should be watched closely for this purpose...
There some enhancements go for 2.5 to as much as (when they were first released) 5 Billion influence. I call it a grey market cause the source of the influence could be anything, you never know where it came from legit saving, farming over time, or RMT...
It's those PVPIOs that are the winning lotto tickets in CoH...
When Enhancement Converters hit live, things are going to change a bit, but that is why it's important to get an idea of where we stand now.
"when i can savagely beat sheep while issuing ultimatums and torturing people, then i may go back into it" -vara nocturne
Not enough Evil...
I take it back NC SOFT is enough evil for anyone...
For your Market Average, are you going to use the prices of the recipes or crafted versions? As I'm sure you're aware, there can be a vast difference in price between them.
Are you planning to just use one overall average or multiple to account for the variety of categories, eg ATOs, Hami-Os/SHOEs, Sets IOs, Common IOs, Common/Uncommon/Rare Salvages, Event Salvages, etc.
The "Power-10" is a good suggestion to cover the Common IOs category. As DOs and SOs, the Devs originally considered or expected them to be the most usable by all archetypes.
Teams are the number one killer of soloists.
Quote:
Well I can maybe give an example with Alchemical Silver, and I guess I'll just own up to my attempts to manipulate its price over the past two years or so, lol.|
Originally Posted by FourSpeed
Some good suggestions so far, and the intent is to have items across all the
categories. While, like the DJIA, I'd expect short term fluctations to be visible, I'm far more interested in the long-term trend of the indexes (we're pretty good, I think, at attributing short-term cause & effect swings when they occur) |
OK, so once upon a time I noticed that AS was always in decent demand, and I was almost always able to buy for a lower price and sell for a higher price. The thing that bothered me a little though was that, at the time I started doing this, the supply available on the market was always higher than the perceived demand; that is, the number outstanding bids was almost always lower than the amount of AS that were for sale. I was pretty sure that players' perceptions of supply and demand was almost as important as the actual supply and demand, so I decided to try something and see how true that was.
I took every unplayed or seldom played alt I had on every server and made chump bids of 1 inf, all on Alchemical Silver. I got my friend to do so as well, who wasn't playing very often at the time. That totally pushed up the apparent demand way higher than what was available on the market.
In 2009 and 2010, I was constantly buying AS up in stacks of 10 for ~50k each, and easily selling them for at least ~100k each, though often times even more that. This was how I managed to make my first 2 billion inf a couple of years ago. It didn't hurt that I was playing the game quite a lot back when either, lol.
In March of last year, I stopped playing the game and I cancelled my subscription, but I left up all those chump bids and I pretty much didn't care about it. I restarted by subscription last October, and one of the first things I did was check up what was going on with Alchemical Silver. While the demand was still kinda high, the price had plummeted. I later learned that in the months between my departure and re-arrival, someone else tried to drive its price down by basically glutting the auction house with an overabundant supply of them. While the price has since inched back up since then, it still hasn't returned to the prices I'd left it at in March of last year.
A curious thing: Recently I've decided to pretty much abandon Alchemical Silver salvage, as it's just not as lucrative as it used to be. As such, I went and cancelled all of those chump bids on all my alts (and most of the bids from my friend's account, who's since gone Premium). Even accounting for the bids that could not be cancelled due to my friend's Premium account locking out some of his characters, there was still quite a high apparent demand on Alchemical Silver. I'm pretty sure someone else out there has a whole lot of possibly chump bids on it. I also noticed they were using the same "staggering" buy and sell technique I'd adopted. I don't think I'd have noticed that if I hadn't stopped doing it myself. Hmm.
And now you know!
If I remember, what's up with Alch Silver is a bunch of marketeers got together, ran some farms, and choked a few flippers with midlevel magic salvage. That doesn't necessarily make it a BAD indicator- it's still used in midlevel common acc and def- but it might be a bit of an ... unusual case. More than it used to be, even.
I'd tend to skew more towards midlevel than low-level and I might skew towards expensive things.
If I were making a basket from scratch, I would have the following categories:
GENERIC: L20 Defense, L35 generic EndMods, L40 Rech Reduction, L50 Acc, L50 Res Dam
SALVAGE: Deific Weapons, Pangean Soil, Spell Ink, Steel, Carnival of Shadows Mask
UNCOMMON BUT UBIQUITOUS: Crushing Impact Acc/Dam/Rech (50), Karma: KB reduction (Crafted) (30), Doctored Wounds Healing/Recharge [crafted] (50), Regenerative Tissue: Regeneration (30), ["representative cheap thing" like, I don't know, Serendipity: Defense at 40].
MID TO HIGH END: Numina's Healing/Recharge [crafted] (50), Celerity: Stealth (50),
PURPLES AND CURRENCY: Respec Recipe, LoTG: 7.5% (25), Glad Armor 3% Def, Apocalypse Dam/Rech, Fortunata Hypnosis: Sleep Duration.
Weighting is challenging- right now, Apple is like ten times overweighted in the DJIA just because its stock price is so high.
I've got 25 items there. Weighting each category equally seems reasonable- although I might want to split "Purples" and "Currency" because those are where a LOT of inf gets burnt. (Do we sell 10,000 commons at around 200K for every Glad Armor 3%? If we did, Glad Armors would be as much of an inf-destroyer as the entire common IO market.)
Within the category is more challenging: if you just add em up, "Purples and Currency" becomes "Glad Armor and Supporting Cast." There might be some way of measuring by how many are estimated to sell per day at the time we set this up, but that's very challenging for things like Spell Ink. (Luck Charms sold at several hundred a day, back in the Luck Charmer days, and that was before Council dropped them OR you could get them in the AE.)
EDIT: A bunch of people jumped in while I was researching...
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
If you want some historical data, then Archie Gremlin posted his complete sales data from his 'How long to the inf cap' project back in Sept 2010:
http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...5&postcount=57
(The 200,000,000 Steadfast Res/Def sale isn't a typo, at least not on Archie's part.)
Arc#314490: Zombie Ninja Pirates!
Defiant @Grouchybeast
Death is part of my attack chain.
Quote:
These are good questions.|
Originally Posted by SerialBeggar
For your Market Average, are you going to use the prices of the recipes or crafted versions? As I'm sure you're aware, there can be a vast difference in price between them.
Are you planning to just use one overall average or multiple to account for the variety of categories, eg ATOs, Hami-Os/SHOEs, Sets IOs, Common IOs, Common/Uncommon/Rare Salvages, Event Salvages, etc. |
First, I plan to have both IO's and Recipes (though they may not be on the same item)
represented. Essentially, I'm trying to get some representative items across all
categories (and along those lines I like the Power 10 idea as well).
Your second question is also interesting - First of all, I'm setting myself up potentially
for a bunch of work (all of which is manual) with this idea.
While I do believe its past time we had access to some of these metrics, I'm not
planning to make a career of it
So, there's a tradeoff to be decided upon,which is to get a good representation across market segments while still being
able to manage the data gathering reasonably easily and quickly.
At this moment, I'm tentatively planning to publish three numbers - the Sales
Average (the key one we're talking about here), Production Average (based on
items listed), and finally (for want of a better term), Inflation Index which is basically
the SA/PA ratio which represents how "active influence" is spread across available
supply. Internally (depending on how much work it entails I may keep some
of that data across the various segments, but I've not decided on that yet.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fulmens
Weighting is challenging- right now, Apple is like ten times overweighted
in the DJIA just because its stock price is so high. |
will weigh in with some thoughts here.
Obviously pricing has to be normalized. High price items certainly deserve a higher
weighting, because their effect is larger, but I don't want a price change in a
single high ticket item to dominate the entire index. By the same token, large
effects in low price (lower weight) items should still be able to contribute to the
index if those effects are significant (ie. large enough).
Additionally, (sort of in parallel to the Al Silver post), a lot of folks store excess
info on the market in low ball bids, which muddies "demand" somewhat. For that
reason, I'm automatically excluding 51-53 (anything), but it's also something
I want to think carefully about, particularly in the recipe segment choices.
As for volumes/unit time, I don't have the foggiest notion how to get an idea of
that. It's an issue I'm probably going to have to defer for the near term.
For salvage, another idea I want to get a sense of - is relative usage frequency, based on
the idea that some of those will be more representative than pieces which are
infrequently used (also keeping in mind the salvage ranges).
Finally, I'm debating the value of mixing levels within the index itself, or, given a
selection of items, compute Average at both their highest availability level and
their lowest availability level (several things behave differently at L10 than L50).
In short, it's not a trivial undertaking if the goal is to come up with something
useful and representative (as much as reasonably possible, of course) which
is why I posted out here rather than simply pick items I think are representative.
Regards,
4
Edit: @Grouchy - thanks for posting that data - I've pulled the csv file, and will
look it over when I get a chance. My thanks to Archie as well...
I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.
Quote:
There's a ton of people who sometimes when they check prices just to casually buy salvage for crafting, nerdrage at the extortionate prices, immediately log on their farming alts for an hour or two and flood the market with cheap salvage.|
Originally Posted by Coyote_Seven
...one of the first things I did was check up what was going on with Alchemical Silver. While the demand was still kinda high, the price had plummeted. I later learned that in the months between my departure and re-arrival, someone else tried to drive its price down by basically glutting the auction house with an overabundant supply of them. While the price has since inched back up since then, it still hasn't returned to the prices I'd left it at in March of last year.
|
Not that I'm guilty of that.
*cough*
Ideon's Paragonwiki page
Member of Paragon/Rogue Knights
Arc: 60092 - Supa Rumble in the Park
"Keep living the dream, and never let any jerk tell you what to do."
-- High-Roller
You aren't going to see any inflation or huge changes in the market unless one of these two things happens...
Something changes drastically in game...
Someone plays the market and temporarily messes up the norm...
A good example of the first would be with LotG recharges. They used to be around 70-90mil for a recipe but now are down to about 50-60mil because of Hero/Villain packs flooding reward merits.
A good example of the second would be...pretty much anything on WW. If someone has enough money to buy all of one type of popular salvage for 100k...then relists it for 1000k there will be people who will still buy it because they just don't care. By those people buying for that price it sets off a chain reaction which causes the next buyers to assume that is the normal price. Eventually things get back to normal but short term it's a pain.
Quote:
And then there's a ton of people like me that always sell everything they put on the market for 1-5 inf because we understand that we're getting the highest bid immediately and the stuff that has no bids on it gets sold at the NPC stores.
|
Originally Posted by Ideon
There's a ton of people who sometimes when they check prices just to casually buy salvage for crafting, nerdrage at the extortionate prices, immediately log on their farming alts for an hour or two and flood the market with cheap salvage.
Not that I'm guilty of that. *cough* |
Quote:
This is a good list.
|
Originally Posted by Kosmos
Some items I check prices on regularly...
High end recipes: Numina's +Reg/+Rec (30) Miracle +Rec (20) Luck of the Gambler Def/global Rech (25) Kinetic Combat Def/Rech (35) Kinetic Combat Def/End/Rech (35) Ragnarok Acc/Dam/Rech (P) Blessing of the Zephyr KB prot (10) Obliteration Acc/Dam/End/Rech (50) Low end recipes: Doctored Wounds Heal/Rech (50) Positron's Blast Acc/Dam/End (50) Performance Shifter Chance for +END (50) Thunderstrike Acc/Dam/Rech (33) Thunderstrike Acc/Dam/End (33) Salvage: Alchemical Silver Chronal Skip Commercial Cybernetic Essence of the Furies Pangean Soil Platinum |
I gotta make pain. I gotta make things right. I gotta stop what's comin'. 'Least I gotta try.
Quote:
Me, too! I even have some characters whose job it is to buy and sell Salvage, and when I'm playing, I still just liquidate it.|
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
And then there's a ton of people like me that always sell everything they put on the market for 1-5 inf because we understand that we're getting the highest bid immediately and the stuff that has no bids on it gets sold at the NPC stores.
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Kosmos
Some items I check prices on regularly...
High end recipes, Low end recipes, Salvage |
Quote:
+1 except for the very tiny handful of recipes I craft and sell which I might put in at a minimum of a couple million since I don't want someone to get a sniper bid on them.
|
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
And then there's a ton of people like me that always sell everything they put on the market for 1-5 inf because we understand that we're getting the highest bid immediately and the stuff that has no bids on it gets sold at the NPC stores.
|
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
Well, after mulling this around for the bulk of the day, and reading up on how
CPI is computed, and trying to figure out what weightings are needed and how
to calculate them, I'm getting a pretty good idea why we haven't had these
metrics readily available previously. 
Given the fairly large spread of "stuff", trying to come up with something representative
is challenging to say the very least.
I am getting some basic ideas on what to include in terms of categorization,
and ideas on how to select them, so some progress is being made, but yikes! 
Cheers,
4
I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.
Somethings cost more than they did before, but a lot of things cost less. This is due to the PM, alignment merts, and it is so much easier to earn inf now. Yesterday I completely IO'd a toon for less than a billion. At this time last year I had a similar build on another toon and it costed me over 2 billion.
The original point of the Dow Jones index was that it was quick and easy to calculate- just add 70 stock prices and go with it.
I think something "quick and easy to calculate" should be high on the list. Come up with our weighting once, use a sloppy guess if we have to, grab 20 or 25 items and roll with it.
It's still going to be a lot of work, probably, but this isn't brain surgery. If it's too damn sloppy, WHO CARES?
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
There's not only inflation, but currency devaluation as well. The WST gives double merit rewards, the SSAs give 20 merits for a 10 minute arc, and the repeatable missions in DA give 5 reward merits, and can be done at x1 difficulty in a few minutes. These give a pretty high rate of return compared to running regular arcs, and perhaps even regular TFs and the easiest Ouro arcs.
DON'T answer that question. Seriously, it's rhetorical.
Hello fellow forumites! Once again, I solicit your advice and opinions (more on
that in a moment).
Currently, we're having a rather spirited discussion in the Maket Forum regarding
the question in the title.
The honest answer is: We cannot decisively prove whether we're suffering from
inflation in-game or not.
Some feel that we are, and some feel we are not - some point out prices that
have risen over time, and others point out prices that are lower now than they
were previously.
So, I'd like to start a new "project" - a CoH version of the DJIA (Dow Jones
Industrial Average)".
Basically, DJIA tracks performance across several "key" stocks, used to give a
high level view of the general stock market as a whole.
I'd like to do something similar using various items, across various categories
(IOs, Recipes, Salvage, Inspirations, etc.), in Wentworth's to give us a comparable
picture for our market. Over time, I think that number (and a few others derived similarly)
should lend factual insight into how our market is behaving.
My intent is to take a dozen or so key items, and using some weightings (also
to be determined), construct Averages for: Sales price, Bids (ie. demand),
and Listings (ie. production) based on numbers listed in the Market UI at various
times (typically 2X or 3X a week).
While I realize some of these are imperfect measures, they would still be better
than what we have now - which is anecdotal recollection based on marketing
experience and activity.
I'd expect to publish the resulting Averages periodically in the Market Forum
(hopefully in a sticky) so we'd start compiling an actual history.
Due to the possible ease of tampering with the individual items that comprise
the metric, that information won't be published (initially) - just the average.
That said, YOU can help by nominating market items that you feel would be
key items for consideration and possible inclusion to the mix.
So, if you please, list an item or two that you think should be part of the Average
and follow it up with a brief description of why you think the item is important
to evaluating overall market behavior.
Once again, please DON'T answer the title question - we already have more
than enough conflicting opinions in the Market Forum as it is, without adding a
few hundred more
This thread's purpose is to find a way to settle those opinions with factual data
going forward.
Thanks in Advance,
4
I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.