Which ATs have the best chance of getting VR and R in trials?

There is obviously some randomness to it, but I don't believe "choice of component is random and is not dependent on personal participation." Because if that is true my ss/fire brute is the luckiest character ever.

My tank has gotten 1 common, 2 uncommons, 1 VR, and dozens of rares. My MM has gotten many commons, 2 rares, and the rest uncommons (not counting all the threads before recent change to drop system), my blaster has gotten 1 rare, 1 VR, rest uncommons with maybe 2 commons thrown in. This doesn't seem like a truely random spread to me, more like a wieghted system with a bit of randomness thrown in. I think that in the end, there is a random roll, but *something* is changing the chance you have for rolling each component.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BackAlleyBrawler That...was a Herocon 09 exclusive easter egg. The powerset will not have doves associated with it. Namely because you guys would want to color tint the damn doves, or make them hawks/ravens/flying sharks/etc and that's just a headache I do...not...want...to deal with.

I sometimes think theres a point to the reward rolls. Then I think back to the 8 man lamb I did the other day where 2 or 3 of us including me as a plant/earth dom smacking things all over ended up getting 10 threads/super insp for a reward for a successful completion.

Only time I've ever seen that table.

I didn't read the whole thread, so I'm not sure if this has been mentioned.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tauge Random is random. There are misconceptions about the reward system. I can't find the post at this moment, the devs have explained that the reward system works basically like this: If you sit on your hands, 10 threads, if you participate, then a you get a random reward.

That's not exactly right.

There's TWO participation metrics: personal and league.

If your personal+league participation is below a certain amount, you get threads. If personal+league is above that threshold, you get a reward table. Yes, if the league is good enough, a doorsitter can be bumped up above the threshold and get a "real reward".

There are multiple reward tables, each with different odds of C/U/R/VR. Which table is used to offer you your reward is based solely off the league participation metric. That means that if you are more active, you are not increasing YOUR chance for a good reward - you're increasing EVERYONE'S chance.

Also note that - per dev confirmation - neither AoE, high damage, debuff nor mez directly increases your chances for a good reward.

However, all these, and other factors, increase your ability to quickly and successfully complete objectives, and a few players have commented that they typically see better rewards on fast, successful runs. This has not been confirmed by devs though - at this time, it is purely conjecture.

Run around 10k trials on one toon. Then 10k of the same trials on another toon. Repeat for at least 50 different toons. Then you will start to have a decent sample size to start forming a conclusion.

Well my main (EI, a Kinetics/Rad. Def.) now has 3 t4s with just 1 to go (Interface's t4). Since the patch I was keeping a log of when I do trials with him and what I got as a reward.

2 trials on 5-1: Both uncommon
3 on 5-8: Rare, uncommon, rare
2 on 5-11: Uncomon, V. Rare
1 on 5-12: Rare


EI seems to either get uncommons or rares. I obviously got 2 other v. rares (have not bought or traded in emp. merits for one) before but...that is what he has been getting (even before the patch).


I just started to do trials on my DA/DM tanker and he has received 2 (or 3?) uncommons and 1 rare so far.

People should know by now that I love posting data! Gives me some reason for all the meticulous records I keep....

PRE PATCH
........C...U...R...VR...TOTAL
CRAB....1...10..6...1....18
CONT....4...10..3...1....18
DOM.....0...9...3...1....13
MM......10..3...0...0....13
SCRAP...0...1...1...0....2
TANK1...3...4...2...1....10

total...18..37..15..4....74
........24%.50%.20%.5%...

POST PATCH

BLAST...2...10..5...2....19
BRUTE...3...5...4...0....12
CONT....0...1...0...0....1
CORR....2...9...2...1....14
MM......3...4...0...0....7
TANK1-B.1...4...0...0....5
TANK2-V.0...2...4...0....6

total...11..35..15..3....64
........17%.55%.23%.5%

COMBINED
BLAST...2...10..5...2....19*
BRUTE...3...5...4...0....12
CONT+1..4...11..3...1....19*
CORR+1..2...9...2...1....14
CRAB+1..1...10..6...1....18*
DOM.....0...9...3...1....13*
MM+1....13..7...0...0....20*
SCRAP...0...1...1...0....2
TANK1+1.4...8...2...1....15*
TANK2+1.0...2...4...0....6

total...29..72..30..7....138
........21%.52%.22%.5%

You can see that, for me, I had no issues with anything other than an MM.

* = I am effectively done with them. They have T3 Lore, Destiny & Interface as well as T2-T3 judgement and a few have T4 Destinies. For some characters (like the MM) this meant doing trials more slowly, like 2 a day to stack up emps to merge for rares. For others, like the Dom, I just blew through them and got everything I needed on the way up.

+1 = I started the character in the trials with their T3 alpha & level shift. For others, I acquired the level shift in the process.

One conclusion that I can draw: If you start with your t3 alpha, it should take no more than 20 trial runs for you to get a character to get both Incarnate shifts & an extra t3.

[Providing that you don't get the 10 thread table frequently. I have NEVER gotten the 10 thread table. Ever. I suspect this is because I have a very solid machine & connection and do not ever DC or crash (not once), because I have died & hospitaled many times - gotten commons that way, but it doesn't seem to have pushed me down into 10 threads yet.]

Another interesting angle:

........C.....U.....R.....VR....total
BAF.....11....46....18....2.....77
........14%...60%...23%...3%....
LAM.....15....26....3.....4.....48
........31%...54%...6%....8%....

For me, Bafs are much, much better for getting rares & Lams better for commons (...). The VR #s are low enough that I pretty much just ignore them.

I've run a ss/fire/soul brute through the trials many times. Needless to say I'm a walking AoE, and that has had zero effect on my drops. I get the occasional Rare, but almost always get commons and uncommons.

If I had to take a wild guess I'd say that once the system figures out that you are participating, or have participated, the rewards are completely random after that. You don't get better rewards for "doing more" it seems.

Until we know the drop rates for sure saying x number of runs should get you Y is not always going to be correct either. Drawing conclusions from an extreemly small sample size will most times lead you to the wrong conclusion.

The human mind CAN'T conceive pure randomness.

Put your index fingers in the corner of your closed eyes, and gently put pressure on the eyeballs until it is almost painful. After a few seconds of this, the pressure on the optic nerves will cause you to "see" very bright lights in a constantly changing set of geometric patterns.
The stimulus is pure random, but the brain MUST fit the random data into a pattern. Hence, the constantly changing patterns. Much like "'what does that cloud look like". Optical illusions play on this, using our "training" against us.

Take an old school pure analog TV with no signal and turn it on. You get what we used to call, "ant wars". THAT is what pure random looks like. Remarkably different from the kaleidoscopic visions you get from the eye pressure. That's because seeing actually happens in the brain, as a result of active pattern recognition. "Filling in the blanks"

Once you get past the 10 threads window into the rewards window, it is random.

You are seeing a pattern that is NOT there, because it is in your nature to see patterns, trends, and try to anticipate them. Seeing patterns and anticipating them keeps us alive. It's what we do.

We CAN'T shut that off, any more than a literate person can look at the written word and not read it.
Of COURSE you think you see a pattern, you can't not see one.

There is no pattern to the drops.

You guys can talk about randomness and sample size as much as you want. The number of MMs who have posted indicating that they get nothing but commons and Uncommons tells me that individual participation is a factor. It's not like we are talking about to hit where you can have 100 different results. There are only 4 kinds of components, and since a fair number of people seem to get V.rare and Rare, we know that the drop chance on them isn't tiny. Assuming that is true, then you really shouldn't get multiple players, especially of a specific AT, that never get anything better then an Uncommon. If personal participation only counted to get you past the threads only door sitter reward, then you would not get results like that.

The Devs who posted about rewards were not very clear IMO. The first post talking about it wasn't clear, then after much discussion the next post still wasn't clear. To be honest, I have to interpret that to indicate that they didn't want to be clear, for some reason.

Ok lets see about some definations first.

Random: things occur without order or apparent reason.

pseudo-random: describes a sequence of numbers which has all the properties of a random sequence following some probability distribution (except true randomness), but which is actually generated using a repeatable deterministic algorithm.

Computer programs uses pseudo-random to create a randomness image. Humans can't write a program that works on a total random since you can't describe it to a computer to compute.

So how does it works, there are a few ways the one I know is; producing a long enough string of numbers (most of the time diving numbers equally across in the string and keep repeating them like 10 times so a string of 1-10 should have at least a string size of 100) than multiplying the next number in the string with systems clock in seconds or miliseconds and diving number to a big number to get a number between 0 and 1. Than check number with a table for example if its between 0 and 0.45 than give common, 0.45 to 0.7 uncommon 0.7 to 0.9 gives rare 0.9 to 1 gives v.rare.

Taking above example people may get same type of rewards over and over because they are a little unlucky hitting at the same portion of string and system time. Considering there are more than 2000 player in CoH (don't know exact number) and assuming that each have at least 2 or 3 level 50's we will have a pool 6000 if string was not long (lets say a string of 500 would be too low for this) enough or somehow repeats similiar behaviour during its lenght (for example if string has a few numbers consecutively 0.45-0.7 results when multiplied with system time) than it may look like it has a pattern which it doesn't and it will be hard to find where is problem.

I am not saying CoH's random table works like this but its most probably a similiar algorithm which results in such behaviour and people are only seeing this behaviour, this doesn't mean system working wrong or right its not easy to tell this and if its really not dependant on participation as a metric than its almost impossible to see where is the problem (for example the ones I mentioned above) unless you have hundred-thousands of data if not milions.