List of an Annoyed Mastermind
By
Abraxxus,
Posted on: 2011-04-13 18:02 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
Quote:
That sounds plausible, but the way it's tracking 'participation' currently appears to be biased against at least one whole AT, and doubly so against certain powerset combinations within that AT.|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
1. My theory is that participation is being measured somehow and leading you to a "supertable" of random rewards. If you have low participation, perhaps you have a high probability of getting the thread or common reward table, and if you have high participation you have a higher probability of getting the uncommon or rare tables. But you always have some finite chance of getting higher value tables at any level of participation.
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I posted my entirely anecdotal and non-significant experiences from tonight here.
If 'participation' isn't counting pets towards their owners, as appears to be the case in the Praetorian zone events, then it looks like my Bots/Traps MM (almost all of whose powers are pet/pseudopet based, other than Web Grenade, Web Envelope, a single target Pulse rifle blast and Photon Grenade) is going to struggle like hell to reach Rare/Tier 3 abilities, whereas my other toons using more direct powers are going to breeze past him just by running enough trials to unlock the slots.
That thought doesn't make me happy. However, other than posting such feedback here on the boards, there's not a lot I can do. I'll just have to keep on plodding. <shrug> Oh well.
Warning:
The above post may contain Cynicism, sarcasm and/or pessimism. If you object to the quantities contained, then tough.
Quote:
Yeah, I would also conclude that is the case from my experiences during the past 2 nights. when I ran with more or less the same team through multiple Lambda trials. |
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
1. My theory is that participation is being measured somehow and leading you to a "supertable" of random rewards. If you have low participation, perhaps you have a high probability of getting the thread or common reward table, and if you have high participation you have a higher probability of getting the uncommon or rare tables. But you always have some finite chance of getting higher value tables at any level of participation.
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Tuesday night I was on my Dom leading 6 consecutive Lambda trials and ended up with a heavy dose of uncommons, a common and 10 threads. The whole night I got disconnected or crashed out about 4 times. Coincidentally, the run where I ended up with 10 threads was when I got disconnected twice due to my router getting reset happy. I didn't even know this reward option existed prior to that.
Last night I switched to my Brute and did 5 Lambda runs and my connection was relatively stable (I hate AT&T) as I only disconnected or crashed out twice the whole night on two seperate runs. In league chat we were basically reporting what we got for the end rewards and it seemed like certain people (2 trollers and someone else) just kept getting the same common table while me and another person kept getting the uncommon table. I think one person even got the 10 threads option twice. At the end of the night I ended up with 4 uncommons and a very rare.
I don't think you can attribute any of that to sheer randomness. Some metric must be influencing which end reward table you're getting. It's too bad we will never find out what it is though because the devs will likely never make that information public for fear of players trying to "game the system".
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Another data point on the subject of participation-based reward tables.
Something is going on. What is going on I'm not sure. But I'm prepared to state that the probability is essentially zero that the thread/common/uncommon/rare/VR table selection is completely random. Worth noting I have yet to see anything but the middle three, and uncommon is *overwhelmingly* the highest frequency table for me so far. |
I would like to point out for those new to the Assembly that Arcanaville is the player who has, on more than one occasion, been able to PROVE to the Devs that their numbers were wrong. Not to be biased but if SHE says something is wrong with the RNG then that's good enough for me when placed with all of these other reports.
For myself I have not run enough of either Trial to be able to say one way or the other. However I DO believe that IXP is severely weighted on damage since my Controllers typically gets 15-20% of her slots open per BAF run and my Fire/Fire Blaster unlocked his in 2 runs with roon to spare.
If the IXP is weighted on damage or some other factor then I'm not at all surprised that drops are as well. However I think this is wrong. Tankers use most of their Primary all the time because they're toggles and a few clicks. They Taunt and attack but their main contribution is getting whooped on. Trollers, Doms and others might use their Primary/Secondary more 50/50 while every time a MM pet attacks he IS using his Primary.
Is there any data to suggest that TAKING damage or being Sequestered is a factor? My Tanks, Brutes and Scrappers get beat down a lot and though I've never seen a VR I've never seen 10 Threads either. My Trollers and Doms never even SEE damage really but they're firing powers like mad. My Blasters are constantly getting 1-2 Warnings and even attacked as the bounce around shooting things.
As I said before, all of these numbers, especially with Arcanaville posting with some certainty, can't just be dismissed.
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Reading all this makes me think that it might be a "grading on a curve" scenario. Lets say there is 24 people in the BAF. The person with the "greatest contribution" gets the very rare, then the next 2 highest get the rares... etc etc.
like...
very rare = 1
rare = 3
uncommon = 8
common = 12
then the people who the system sees are not contributing gets the 10 threads instead.
Does anyone have the full league loot results from a single BAF or LAM?
I'm not sure how much it will help the discussion, but I've noticed some odd things myself on these. I've done about a dozen successful runs each of Lambda and BAF, all on my fire/sr scrapper. My level of participation has been pretty steady on all of these. I do as much damage as I'm able to (I should note that until I unlocked my judgement slot, fire sword circle was my only AoE), and use my incarnate powers when they're up. And after I got the hang of them, I don't really die too much (maybe once per mission or thereabouts). I also have a pretty stable internet connection (only one disconnect in all of those trials).
I've gotten mostly uncommons and commons, probably split about 60/40. I've gotten 3 rares, every single one of which came on a BAF, and have yet to see the very rare table. I do find it odd that all of my rares came on the BAF, when it seems like the lambda sector is more suited to my character. Killing the turrets, the security guard, fighting marauder, and the mad dash through the tunnels to blow up the glowies are all situations where my high survivability and single-target damage allows me to excel. And yet I get crappier rewards consistently when I run that than the BAF.
Funny data point: My Ice/Fire blapper (lots of holds, LOTS of PBAoE damage, always in the middle of all the biggest fights) has already two very rares, and she hasn't even finished unlocking the slots yet, much less started crafting much of anything (and yes, I have done quite a bit of thread->iXP conversion).
If there's some sort of participation metric, it'd explain so much.
I'm also wondering if I should spam Stimulant/Aid Other/Self/anything else whenever we're having any downtime in a trial.
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It's probably based on the same code that the Praetoria zone events use for participation, in which case it completely ignores all contributions by pets. So MMs only get credit for damage they deal with their own attacks and any buffs / debuffs / heals they do... which means you may as well just spam your secondary and don't even bother with pets. |
Originally Posted by Rikis
If only that were true... but it isn't, my Mastermind participates as much as my Dominator and my Brute do, but neither of the latter two ever saw the 10 threads choice.
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Cascade, level 50 Blaster (NRG/NRG since before it was cool)
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This is similar to the reasoning one league leader was using earlier tonight. He made it a 16-man league, saying that fewer people gave more chances at high participation. Two BAFs in a row, I got two rare tables on my MM, and at least one person in the league got a Very Rare each time.
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Originally Posted by atomicdeath
Reading all this makes me think that it might be a "grading on a curve" scenario. Lets say there is 24 people in the BAF. The person with the "greatest contribution" gets the very rare, then the next 2 highest get the rares... etc etc.
like... very rare = 1 rare = 3 uncommon = 8 common = 12 |
http://www.fimfiction.net/story/36641/My-Little-Exalt
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It's very rare that I would outright call a dev team stupid, but if they've gone this route...|
Originally Posted by atomicdeath
Reading all this makes me think that it might be a "grading on a curve" scenario. Lets say there is 24 people in the BAF. The person with the "greatest contribution" gets the very rare, then the next 2 highest get the rares... etc etc.
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Rewards influenced by "participation" is bad enough, but expanding that to be "participation" relative to other team/league members, that is a system formed from pure crystals of concentrated fail.
I've run both trials many times a day since i20 came out, and never gotten the Very Rare. I play a tanker and I am constantly attacking either bosses or their adds. I would always say "random is random", but not now. I'm pretty sure this is broken.
On my Ice/Fire Dominator, over about 15 runs I have yet to see anything but Uncommon and Rare. I actually have so many Rares that I am able to build a Very Rare despite never having had one drop. This pattern was so consistent that in my first 7 or so runs I thought that table was what you always got for completing a trial.
What I am wondering is whether "participation" is measured by how many enemies aggro lists your character makes it onto. I don't mean that you actually have to pull aggro. I just wonder whether that is a part of the measurement.
No matter what it's examining though, I have to put it out there that if this system is supposed to measure contributions, there is no way it could ever work. Other than very obvious situations, like a person who just door sits the whole time, there is no way you could tell whether the Ice/Force Field Controller is contributing more or less than the Fire/Fire Brute and the Ninja/Trick Arrow Mastermind. I also sincerely hope drops aren't a competition. If that turns out to be the case and players find out about it, any hopes of friendly, casual league play will be dashed. Even the suspicion that might be the case is probably harmful to the game.
So I posted something similar here, but just to recap:
Fire/Ice blaster, pumps out tons of damage, a bit of "control" via Ice Patch & whatnot, but mostly dealing damage. 2 VR, 1 or 2 rares and 1 or 2 uncommon or comon in 6 runs.
Fire/Rad controller, prior to getting his T3 (esp T3 Judgment), dealing decent damage, but not as much as a Fire blaster, lots of buffing, controlling & light healing. About 30-40 total runs, 0 VRs, 7-8 rares (enough for all 3 T3s and I have 3-4 left for my next run up to the T4s), lots & lots of uncommons, very few commons. Last few runs, w/all 4 T3 slots unlocked, at (+3) and doing considerably more damage, I've been getting almost all rare drops. At least the last 2 in a row have dropped rares. Going for T4 Judgment first to see if that'll get me more VR drops (based on this speculation anyway).
My DB/WP scrapper did get a very rare drop too, but I only ran a couple of BAFs w/him (can't remember the other drop).
My tanks don't do nearly as much damage as the above toons. Fire tank gets uncommons. My Stone/Ice gets mostly commons. My other controllers who don't do nearly as much damage as my Fire/Rad also get uncommons or commons. My Ill/Kin in particular who buffs & heals like crazy and mostly does pet damage gets more commons than uncommons. Same for my defenders.
The only time I've heard someone getting the 10 thread table was when that guy DC'ed during the run, so didn't "contribute" much. This happened to him 2x in a row. I've never seen that table myself.
I'm keeping better track of drops per toon and the damage they dish out, but right now, the trend is pretty clear, at least by my experience. I know ppl have observed the opposite too (see linked thread above), so I don't know what's up, but at least for me, it's linked to damage.
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Some comments are very close to calling the Devs out for willfully screwing people (for lack of a better term) with this reward system. Until we know differently, we can't assume it's anything but an innocent mistake, or not thinking through every ramification, which is bound to happen. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt on this one that if there is something wrong, it was unintentional and it will get fixed. We won't be getting a WAI answer.
Whatever you presently think about the Devs, and what they seem to be doing in the future, let's not let that bias creep into this. There's a big difference between intentional design and "it looked good on paper."
Loose --> not tight.
Lose --> Did not win, misplace, cannot find, subtract.
One extra 'o' makes a big difference.
More things to add.
Last night I was playing my ELM/ELA brute doing about 10 runs of BAF. I decided to do some experimentation. The first 5 runs, I was going all out trying to do as much damage and draw as much aggro as I can without dying. Using my AoE attacks on every spawn, roaming around picking off the runners, pulling the AVs, getting warned by the AVs 4-5 times each trial. Basically I was all over the map. I got 3 very rares and 2 rares as the end reward. Then for runs 6 and 7, I decided to back off quite a bit. Primarily just sticking to one or two doors, holding back against the AVs to avoid getting warned, etc. Both times I got uncommons. The last 3 runs my effort was somewhere between aggressive and passive. 2 more uncommons and a rare. 10 runs and not a single common which is consistent with what I've been experiencing so far with all of my characters.
I also had a Tanker friend in the same league as me for 6 of those BAF runs and I told her to do the experiment with me as well. The first 2-3 runs she was putting in maximum effort as I designated her for ambush duty while still coming to assist with AVs from time to time. She ended up with very rare or rares each time. During the runs where I was backing off, she was backing off as well and ended up with uncommons and a rare. Again, no commons.
I know these experiments are not very scientific because there are far too many unkown variables present which *could* contribute to the participation calculation. Still, I thought the results were interesting.
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Actually, at this point the developers need to explain exactly what is happening with the reward tables. If that means spilling the beans on the participation criteria (if there is any attached to the tables), then they need to do so now before they start losing customers that feel disregarded when it comes to the reward tables.|
Originally Posted by White Hot Flash
Some comments are very close to calling the Devs out
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If they don't come clear about the tables, speculation and wild accusations will continue to build to such a state that people won't want to participate in the trials with people they don't know.
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I agree, but one problem could be that relay specifics about the current system could be as bad announcing an exploit. I can't imagine many players favor the current system though.|
Originally Posted by Snow Globe
Actually, at this point the developers need to explain exactly what is happening with the reward tables. If that means spilling the beans on the participation criteria (if there is any attached to the tables), then they need to do so now before they start losing customers that feel disregarded when it comes to the reward tables.
If they don't come clear about the tables, speculation and wild accusations will continue to build to such a state that people won't want to participate in the trials with people they don't know. |
Personally, i get uncommons most of the time, which are basically worthless to me (takes only 2 on the way to getting a very rare, but break down for only 8-10 threads).
A dev needs to say something sooner rather than later. If the truth is ugly, so be it, but people are beginning to suspect the worst anyways.
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Quote:
Different AT's|
Originally Posted by baron_inferno
More things to add.
Last night I was playing my ELM/ELA brute doing about 10 runs of BAF. I decided to do some experimentation. The first 5 runs, I was going all out trying to do as much damage and draw as much aggro as I can without dying. Using my AoE attacks on every spawn, roaming around picking off the runners, pulling the AVs, getting warned by the AVs 4-5 times each trial. Basically I was all over the map. I got 3 very rares and 2 rares as the end reward. Then for runs 6 and 7, I decided to back off quite a bit. Primarily just sticking to one or two doors, holding back against the AVs to avoid getting warned, etc. Both times I got uncommons. The last 3 runs my effort was somewhere between aggressive and passive. 2 more uncommons and a rare. 10 runs and not a single common which is consistent with what I've been experiencing so far with all of my characters. I also had a Tanker friend in the same league as me for 6 of those BAF runs and I told her to do the experiment with me as well. The first 2-3 runs she was putting in maximum effort as I designated her for ambush duty while still coming to assist with AVs from time to time. She ended up with very rare or rares each time. During the runs where I was backing off, she was backing off as well and ended up with uncommons and a rare. Again, no commons. I know these experiments are not very scientific because there are far too many unkown variables present which *could* contribute to the participation calculation. Still, I thought the results were interesting. |
As a bots/ff I have tried everything i can. Buffing the whole league. Engaged in every single part of the trial. Balls to the wall issuing commands to my bots. Spamming the attack button needlessly on AV's. I have never gotten above uncommon. I dont know how else i can contribute any more than i already have been. My best route is to melt down all the commons i get for 4 threads and pay 1.2 billion inf per incarnate slot for the VR
I just got a tip to try to brawl and boxing next time. So ill try that too.
Anyone got a kitchen sink i can borrow?
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This still smells like confirmation bias to me.|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Another data point on the subject of participation-based reward tables.
Something is going on. What is going on I'm not sure. But I'm prepared to state that the probability is essentially zero that the thread/common/uncommon/rare/VR table selection is completely random. Worth noting I have yet to see anything but the middle three, and uncommon is *overwhelmingly* the highest frequency table for me so far. |
Your sample leads us to believe that the determining factor in measuring "participation" for purpose of weighting reward rolls isn't enemies defeated, just raw time spent in the trial, and that spending a large amount of time in the trial leads to better rewards.
In your sorted-by-time table, compare the first result to the 11th result: the first result got only ~10% more inf, but spent nearly twice as much time in the trial. The reasonable conclusion based on this data seems to be that spending more time in the trial (independent of enemies defeated) caused the reward table to be weighted in favor of rarer rewards. Does seem like sensible (or likely) design to anybody?
Aside from that, with a sample of only 13 runs it is in fact quite likely that the results did or could occur randomly.
edit: you're also waving away the fact that the correlation disintegrates completely in your BAF results.
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First of all, confirmation bias presumes I had an initial bias to confirm. In fact, I had no idea what the data was going to say, and in fact if you read my post you'll see that I threw time in there almost as an after-thought: I assumed influence would show the stronger signal.|
Originally Posted by Silencer7
This still smells like confirmation bias to me.
Your sample leads us to believe that the determining factor in measuring "participation" for purpose of weighting reward rolls isn't enemies defeated, just raw time spent in the trial, and that spending a large amount of time in the trial leads to better rewards. |
Second, its highly unlikely that pure time spent in the trial would be the direct determinant in your reward table, so I specifically discounted that possibility in my post. The most likely possibility is that the longer trials were also different in some way that was the true determining factor, and I said so. Concluding I implied anything different contradicts the actual text of my post.
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In your sorted-by-time table, compare the first result to the 11th result: the first result got only 10% more inf, but spend nearly twice as much time in the trial. Your conclusion based on this appears to be that spending more time in the trial caused the reward table to be weighted in favor of rarer rewards. Does seem like sensible design to anybody? Aside from that, with a sample of only 13 runs it is in fact quite likely that the results did or could occur randomly. |
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| edit: you're also waving away the fact that the correlation disintegrates completely in your BAF results. |
The Lambda signal is unambiguous. The BAF data is only meaningful if you trust my past credibility detecting problems, which I'm not asking anyone to do.
And I should mention that just the unordered distribution of drops is statistically significant. Three common drops out of 21 runs is unusual if common drops were intended to actually be common and randomly awarded. Three rare and five uncommon out of eight BAF runs is itself highly suspicious albeit not conclusive. Taking all these observations together leads me to conclude there's enough evidence to assert the drop tables are not completely random.
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On my Brute, dozens of runs:
Threads = Never
Commons = Few times
Uncommons = Vast majority of the time
Rares = Sometimes, much more often than Commons
Very Rare = Twice
On my Empath, dozens of runs:
Threads = Once
Commons = Vast majority of the time
Uncommons = Sometimes
Rares= Once
Very rare= Twice
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Something i think should be in this tread
http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?t=258308
Reward System
Last, but certainly not least, we have been paying attention to your feedback and questions concerning the rewards from Incarnate Trials. Particularly, we understand the curiosity surrounding the way in which the Incarnate Trial Reward Tables are awarded. While were not going to give away the keys to the castle, heres a few points we wanted to share with you:
- As Second Measure previously said, the system rewards participation.
- The Trials are a group effort, so working together to complete the objectives of the event will provide a more rewarding experience for all members of the league.
- While there is an element of randomness, the system is not completely random.
- Dont forget that higher tier rewards can be broken down into lower tier components.
- We are actively monitoring the reward system to ensure it continues to reward players for their participation as fairly and equitably as possible.
- When a part of our community shows concern, such as Masterminds have, we will investigate the rewards and make tweaks as needed. In fact, you can expect to see some changes from the first round of metrics and feedback in an upcoming patch.
Hey, long time mastermind here.
I have gotten 1 ultra rare, on my second run, it was a behavioral adjustment facility, 7 rares (6 from behavioral adjustment facility), many, MANY uncommons (i wanna say around 15, approxomately) from behavioral adjustment facility and 3 commons.
I've gotten 7 more commons from lambda, a few uncommons, I've never gotten threads from either trial.
A few things to note about my build. I have, and continuously use, all three of the robotics attacks, cycled with judgement in the mix. So I likely put out more non-pet damage than some other masterminds.
I die in lambda. Usually once, sometimes twice. It often happens when someone calls out that they have found a box or acid tube and are alone, I set my pets to passive, dash off, destiny shield and buff them, ion judgement the widget and, assuming my pets hadn't died on the way, catch aggro away from the other person while I try to resummon my pets, if my timing isn't spot on, I die. (When i'm not lagging, my self heal can keep me above water, but i'm having real rendering issues in there even at minimum settings which I have to work on). Either way, I don't think much of it, the one who found the box got some help and a shield, and nine times out of ten they finish the job while i'm hospitalizing. Other ways to die are when the team dashes off in all different directions, since we aren't moving as a group, my passive pets get a lot of aggro, get destroyed, and i am behind the 8-ball the next time I have to stop and fight.
My pets are always pre-summoned for the task when I go into a trial. Though I do note that lambda has a tendency to give me the pet bug, requiring a /releasepets and a resummon.
The Behavioral Adjustment Facility, either by some facet of this participation system or good luck, has given me three of my seven rares in a row. In my doorsitting during the escape phase, i am quite proficient, from my electrifying fences to my lore pets to my pulse rifle, I often do exceptionally well. I cannot say, however, how I compare in other portions, only that I'm often the heavy hitter in the escape phase.
Whether ANY of this is actually relevant I cannot say, but I wanted to mention it all in case it might lead people down an interesting avenue of experimentation. I'm not incredibly bothered about not getting another ultra rare yet, as I'm having fun in the trials, but I do admit the idea of having to get them only through merit conversion or a 400m/rares conversion is bothersome.
I'm starting to learn that it's definitely possible to game the system to. At least for the BAF (lambda is harder for me to figure out). I've changed up my playstyle, and gotten more rares in the last 10 runs of the BAF than in the 30 before that.
I'm definitely seeing a discrepency in rewards between my blaster and troller. The troller the vast majority of the time receives common or uncommon.
Switching to the blaster, I see more rares and uncommons, and dont think I've ever received the common reward table.
If I have to build my tier 4s from scratch, its going to bankrupt me, 400m+ each is a huge cost.
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And that other trial where I died once, gained close to 50% of the XP needed to open up a slot and got a common reward. How does that fit in?
In order for your theory to be correct, the dev team had to come up with some sort of a reward table based on some sort of arbitrary way of determining which characters participated more, and code that in to work on just these two trials without breaking anything else.
OR...random = random.
When applying Occam's Razor to this, you come out with the latter.
2. iXP is almost certainly known at this point to be tracked like regular XP: shared among the entire team, but not the associated league. So even if one person is totally idle, it would not reduce their iXP level to zero. In fact, if their team was doing the disproportionate amount of the killing, they would get the most iXP even if they personally did nothing.
3. My data, posted in the thread linked above, makes the odds that there isn't some systematic effect happening in the reward tables, extremely low. Random chance is not likely to produce the results I've seen, even for the relatively small data sets I'm looking at. Its enough for me to draw an objective conclusion. I just don't know *what* is happening to leave the non-random signature I'm seeing.
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