Recipe drop rate manipulated

What do I need to do in order to get my rare recipe drop rate back to normal. or can a Dev tell me what things that i do in game that will alert Developers to decrease my recipe drop rate. As a 46 veteran, i've done every single mission endlessly numerous times, now i just farm BM and play PVP for those rare and purple recipes to gain influe cena and slot my toons good.

I've compared (rare/purple recipe) drop rates with other friends that do the exact same thing as me and its like a 1/5 ratio. If they were not manipulated as developers say, everyone's drop rate should be around the same. There are many things in game a player can do to try to get those rare/purple recipe drops, but when your drop rate is manipulated it is a waste of time even to play the game.

About drop rate manipulatioin: i've heard so many times from GMs that recipe drop rate is not something developers have control over, well that is untrue and i can prove it.
About six months ago, i got very frustrated after running BM solo numerous times and not getting a single purple drop or rare. Moreover, other friends doing the same had much better luck than me. As a result, frustrated with the game and my horrendous drop rate, I decided to deactivate my account and the reason i left at the end of the questionarie was "i am a pvper, i need influece to slot my toons, i am a 35+ veteran and have done every single mission, without influce i cannot slot my toon and do pvp. since i cannot slot toons due to lack of influence i don't have fun anymore, so i quit"

At that time i still had a few more days before my subscription expired, so the next day i decided to run a few more Battle Maiden runs and out of the blue, ON MY FIRST RUN I GET 4 CONSECUTIVE PURPLE DROPS. then, i concluded how much control developers have over people's accounts and most importantly drop rates....

Does it mean that new players have higher drop rates just to keep them excited about the game and forget about the OLD veterans?

I need to know what contributes these rates, or do i need to create a new account and stop playing my two veteran ones i currently use?

And please, dont come telling me Developers do not have control over drop rates because i will just ignore it and move on to another game...

Campesino-Commander of Raven Shield SG ranking 5, Freedom.

pics or it didn't happen

It is called a random generator for a reason.

It is not that they manipulated a drop rate specifically for you. If they modify a drop rate it applies to everyone.

You just have had bad runs.

I know because I was running a mission with my son and he got back to back purple drops followed by a respec recipe and then another purple drop later in the mission. Me...nada.

But then again at other times I have gotten purple drops.

The drop rate is random and just sometimes to go in streaks just like any other random thing.

This game is nothing different than other games. I use to play Asheron's Call and I would get their rare drops a lot on my characters and it seemed odd when comparing to others who never would get one. But sometimes it just is how you run.

When you run the BM farm are you doing it at +0 level/x8 people? Do you run it solo? If so then you have more of a chance of getting the drop then if you run with other people or with with a lower number for the setting.

They are out to get you and only you specifically.

Welcome to statistics

probability & odds

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

http://www.sportsci.org/resource/stats/summarize.html


It's random some are lucky some not

Random numbers are random.


Also, correlation is not causation:

We've been saving Paragon City for eight and a half years. It's time to do it one more time.

They do have control over drop rates, inasmuch as they can increase or decrease the percentage that each critter drops at... but they do not have control over YOUR SPECIFIC drop rates, that is just silly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dispari I don't know why Dink thinks she's not as sexy as Jay was. In 5 posts she's already upstaged his entire career.

Well to be fair the devs do set the drop rate. But once they do it's all up to the RNG. Now I understand how probability and statistics isn't understood well by the general population, I think I took it in my Junior year of college while studying engineering.

Let's say there's a 1% drop rate and you defeat 1,000 critters. You would expect to get 10 drops. However there is a 12.9% chance you will get 6 or less and a 1% change to get 3 or less. That means 100 players go defeat 1,000 critters each and the odds are 1 unlucky player will only get 3 or fewer drops. It's also true that 1 player will likely get 18 or more.

A RNG can be a harsh mistress.

For a long time there was a bug that caused purple recipes not to drop when they should have -- it wasn't that the drop rate was wrong, it was an uninitialized variable that made mobs con gray and therefore not eligible for purple drops. That bug was fixed some time ago now and purple drops seem to be working as expected.

Human beings do not understand probability well. It is counterintuitive. We are pattern-seeking creatures, because the ability to sense patterns is extremely important for survival. We therefore expect to sense patterns in completely random distributions, and when we don't see the patterns we expect to see we think something is wrong.

The main misunderstanding of probability is the idea that if there is a 1 in 100 chance of an occurrence, we expect that we should get something after 100 events. If the occurrence is truly random this will not be true. The only thing you can really say is that there is some percentage chance that you will get that result in 100 trials. The probability will be higher in 200 trials, and higher still for 500 trials.

But with each occurrence the chance of getting something is the same. Whether you got it the previous trial, or 50,000 trials ago. There's no memory in the random number mechanism (if it's truly random -- sometimes the generators are buggy and not truly random). Each event is independent.

For example, if you flip a coin it's a 50-50 chance it'll come up heads. The next time you flip the coin it's still a 50-50 chance. Every time you flip, it's always 50-50, no matter how many times you've flipped it and it has come up heads. That means it's completely possible to get heads 100 times in a row, because each time the odds are 50%. It's just highly unlikely that it will turn out that way.

The random number generator is like a coin toss: a random sample with replacement (the number rolled can be rolled immediately again). This is unlike dealing cards from a deck (which is a random sample without replacement). A card deck has a memory, and though each card dealt is random, it is not independent of previous cards dealt.

The human inability to truly grasp probability is why lotteries make money. If we really understood probability lotteries would not work, because the expected value of a lottery ticket is almost nearly zero. However, at some point the prize gets large enough so that expected value of buying a lottery ticket does make it statistically reasonable to spend a buck to buy the ticket. But if everyone waited until that point, no one would buy lottery tickets and the prize would never get that large.

Pfft Global Warming, I'll believe that when the Ice age they predicted 20 years ago hits us, THEN we can have the global warming!

It is I who have manipulated your drop rate. Send me your purples and I will correct it. Maybe.

On a slightly less snarky note, you can download DropStats and use it to analyze your drop rates and confirm whether or not you really do have a problem with a reduced rate. One thing you'll notice is that you need a LOT of data to be able to tell with any confidence -- for events with a low chance of happening, it takes a very large sample to establish the probability, and this is why it's very easy to think there's an issue with the drop rate when there isn't.

You can get DropStats here:
http://www.glasspaw.com/dropstats/

It seems like a lot of effort, but on the plus side, if you get solid evidence of a drop rate problem with DropStats, then people are much more likely to take your issue seriously.

Claws,

Stop it, they are out to get him. The devs love me, I get a purple for every defeat. Even in Outbreak.

Or we can look at reality and say that for each individual defeat you roll that 5000 sided die or however big it is and if it lands on the purple number you get one. Got a group of three in your mob? You roll three times. A group of 10? You roll 10 times. Sometimes you get lucky and roll that magic number a couple of times in one group, I got two purples out of one group once, and sometimes you won't hit that number for months.

I just created an add on to change the colors of the pop ups. Now all my recipes are purples.



Actually I kind of wish I had written one. Then I could send it to everybody who complains about purple rates.