Notes on new team difficulty settings


Abigail Frost

 

Posted

I'd like to repeat the request that the tests be re-run on live.

Edit - I'm having flashbacks to the scrapper testing from a few years back.


 

Posted

Quote:
For a single player, no matter what the virtual team size, the drop rate is correct. Where the issue is is not with the single player, but rather the real team drop rate.
This has not been true for me since I-16 hit beta. I solo almost all the time. My drop rates have been abysmal compared to I-15.


Be well, people of CoH.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Z Bubba View Post
This has not been true for me since I-16 hit beta. I solo almost all the time. My drop rates have been abysmal compared to I-15.
Same.

"Alien"


Quote:
Originally Posted by Infernus_Hades View Post
The way you play changes your IO slotting..


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
Synapse, there is hard data in this thread. We aren't (just) perceiving lowered drop rates, we are measuring them.

I don't know how to reconcile the differences in what we're measuring with what you're measuring.

Edit: I haven't done any runs at team size of 8. I've been using size 4 and 6 (mostly 6). I don't know if that helps.
I think people have to understand though, that if they can't find how it's happening, not only can they not prove it IS happening, but they can't alter it.

I personally haven't noticed any problem with drops, I run at -1/+8. I do believe that there IS a problem, but I also believe that if they just up the rate, I'm going to be rich as ****, because my drop rate will go up from fine to super dooper.

We need to nail down exactly why some folks get less than others.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Z Bubba View Post
This has not been true for me since I-16 hit beta. I solo almost all the time. My drop rates have been abysmal compared to I-15.
Anecdotal evidence here, but I wanted to work on Paragon Protector badge on my villain, a lvl 50 brute. Had a lvl 48 Defeat Paragon Protectors mish (Mako patron arc...thank you for the patron arcs very fun and I love running them) so set it at +2/+8. Spawned wonderfully huge mobs of lvl 50s on a massive map. Commenced grinding towards badge. In 4 solo runs, I only had 9 regular IO recipes, 2 yellows and 2 orange (0 purples). Had some SG mates who wanted badge and I wanted to see what was up with recipe drops so we left diff setting as is and ran it about 4-5 more times with teams of 2-3. I received 2 IO generic recipe drops in those runs 4-5 runs. Zero yellow, orange or purples. I have no idea how many mobs on that map, each mob averaging 1-3 bosses, I would venture a conservative guess at least 50 mobs on the map.

Teammates reported several salvage drops (many rares), but I can't say for my toon, my salvage was full.


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Posted

It's very nice to have a Red Name commenting on this thread, though the treatment does leave one with a lack of resolve in light of the data that has accumulated over the course of this thread, especially when it comes to recipe drops. I'm going to make some more runs tonight and see if anything hasn't changed.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Synapse View Post
-14 to 19 recipes per mission
-5 to 8 enhancements per mission
-30 to 51 salvage per mission
Just ran this mission (Abyss, first mission) via flashback on live with a 50 Elec/Shield/Mu Brute. Setting: +0 level x 8, no bosses (not sure if Synapse put bosses in his mission or not).

Results:

9 recipes
(Mocking Beratement Taunt, Unbound Leap End Redx, Blood Mandate Acc/Dmg/End, 6 common IO recipes)

6 enhancements

25 salvage (6 uncommon, 19 common, 0 rare)

I'll run this again with bosses if I get somewhere close to Synapse's numbers; however, my results are below what he's been getting. I also run this again without bosses and then steadily work up to +1, +2,...


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Starcloud View Post
Conditions on Live are different, the random number generator is hit far more often, and there might be a contributing factor in the lag and occasional loss of sync on Live that are not possible on your internal test server.
Thinking about this some more...

I'll wait until the weekend, so that I don't put myself in the hurt locker lol, but I'm gonna run the Abyss mish during early AM (eastern U.S., non-peak hours) to see if the results are dramatically different from my peak-hour runs.


Repeat Offenders

 

Posted

So, someone brought up the lag on live vs internal server test.....

Curious, how many of you guys with sucky drop rates play on east coast servers, where nasty lag has been reported of late? I know Liberty is one of them, I dont know all the east coast ones though.

Just a thought, maybe excessive lag/ping/whatever is losing packets? Kind of a stretch as other drops seem ok, but just a thought.

other thoughts.... maybe the drop rate is tied to zoning, or a certain zone? maybe a zone with/without an AE building in it would affect it, or coming from a pvp or co-op zone like rikti war zone? There is always a lag spike around wentworths for me, dont know why, but maybe that has something to do with it. There have been bugs involving zoning in the past. MIght not really be the drop rate, but the "team size"- what if on zoning, with your virtual team set to 8, it is adding another virtual 8- or the original virtual 8 is "converted" by the server to be seen as a normal 8 man team. Sort of how like a few issues ago(maybe still dont know) you could get hasten to stack by zoning and logging out or whatever.

Not sure. to me, it would be more likely to be something like that then a problem right in the drop code. It has happened enough times in the past where the server gets faked out one way or another when you zone or log out I could easily see it affecting the new virtual team size code somehow, inderectly.

Not sure how to test that....maybe select a mission in one zone, then zone to mission vs selecting the mission in the same zone. or select a mission, log out and back in, etc. It;s the type of test that would be tedious, as you would still have to run the mission every time, so it would be a whole lot of logging out or zoning. My PC is not up to that kind of exercise anymore.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Goliath Bird Eater View Post
Now my question (to Synapse or anyone else who can answer): Are the numbers listed above consistent with the number of drops a team of 8 players would typically receive while running the same mission at +0 difficulty?
His numbers are actually higher for recipes than the predicted. The map uniformly spawns 344 enemies. 268 are minions. 68 are lieutenants. 8 are bosses who downgrade to lieutenants. This is why I kept using it for testing - because of the invariant spawns.

The predicted number of Mob-drop recipes for that number and distribution of spawns is 11.2.

Set for 0/8 or +1/8, I have not (since I16 beta started) gotten more than 5 or 6 mob-dropped recipes for clearing that map with my brute. My average is about 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Starcloud View Post
Synapse:

For a single player, no matter what the virtual team size, the drop rate is correct.
As others have noted, this is not true for everyone. I also don't feel like it's a perception issue. I think there's a factor other than drop rates at work; I have no doubt that the drop rates have not been changed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AwesomusPrime View Post
I think people have to understand though, that if they can't find how it's happening, not only can they not prove it IS happening, but they can't alter it.

I personally haven't noticed any problem with drops, I run at -1/+8. I do believe that there IS a problem, but I also believe that if they just up the rate, I'm going to be rich as ****, because my drop rate will go up from fine to super dooper.

We need to nail down exactly why some folks get less than others.
This. The problem is not the drop rate - it's the drop distribution. As Starcloud said in the section I snipped, there's something wonky happening in the drop logic. Given that it's not something that replicably happens with changes to the virtual teammate slider, I don't know what else to test.

We know what the drop rates are supposed to be. I trust that they haven't been changed. We don't know how the drop distribution is supposed to work, so we can't test it, and now we've got a top-heavy set of runs from a redname whose lower-bound of 14... hey, wait a second...

15 runs on a map with 344 enemies is 5160 enemies.

The per-map weighted drop rate should be 3.26% (((268*.026667)+(76*.053333))/344).

Even if Synapse only got 14 recipes/run, his overall drop rate would be (14*15)/5160 = 4.07%.

The margin of error for an expected drop rate of 3.26% with 5160 observations is +/- .48%, so a range from 2.78 to 3.74 would be expected 95% of the time. 4.08 is outside that range. I'm pretty certain that if you computed it using 99% confidence values, these results would show up as aberrant as well.

That means that SYNAPSE'S DROP RATE IS OUTSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR FOR THE MAP if he only got the LOWEST number of drops out of his 15 runs each time (which he didn't). Yes, it's outside in the high direction, but that's completely consistent with people saying, "I don't see anything wrong with the drops." If there's something wrong with drop distribution, sometimes it will be off to the low end (where people will complain), and other times it will be off to the high end (where they will not).

Welcome to the high end.


My postings to this forum are not to be used as data in any research study without my express written consent.

 

Posted

I'm glad we have people who are good at math in here, because that post made me dizzy. =P


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Posted

I've tried numerous on both red & blue side, different settings & team make ups.
All players on my teams have diminished to no recipies per run.
This includes maps farmed, completed mission arcs, street sweeping, orbouros missions, radio & paper missions, regular & co-op zones.
I am issuing an open invite for any dev to come and join in, or just even doorsit if they wish to team, for the purpose of gathering data of thier own on a player who has seen next to nothing for recipies since 16 launched live.
contact me in game @Katatrosphia if you'd like to gather data on a truly from the players point of view, our maps & settings.


 

Posted

Thanks for posting, Synapse.

Can you confirm that the Wiki description of the drop rate is correct. i.e. that the rates are intended to be:-
Minions 2.666667%
Lieutenants/Snipers/Bosses downgraded to Lts 5.333333%
Bosses/EBs 7.999999%
AVs either 100% or 0%, depending on the AV

Can you also confirm that Pool A includes purples and temporary powers but not costume pieces.

This would be really helpful to those of us who are trying to reproduce the bug.

Thanks very much.


 

Posted

Another run with my Electric/Shield/Mu brute. +0 level x 8 players, no bosses. Awful, awful drop rate for everything but salvage, which was within range of what Synapse got. Again, this is the same mission used by Synapse (Abyss, 1st mission)

Results:

Recipes
2 common IO recipes

Enhancements
4 SOs

Salvage
2 rare
10 uncommon
28 common

6:38 Pacific on Virtue, if that makes any difference. A friend of mine claims absolutely better drop rates off hours.


 

Posted

Quote:
Can you also confirm that Pool A includes purples and temporary powers but not costume pieces
Shouldn't purples be in their own pool, since they have a very narrow drop window?


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Posted

If it is only my perception that is the problem then that is really too bad. Because my perception affects my will to play the game. If i feel that i am getting recipe drops way too rarely then i am getting bored very fast.

My perception tells me that i was getting recipes when soloing at basic difficulty before I16 and that now i am rarely ever getting any. I could not care less about setting my maps for 8 players to raise my chances to get recipes. Simply put, i do not want to farm and kill tousands of mobs before getting the simpliest basic common recipes.

Would devs consider doubling or even tripling the drop chance for mobs? Or drastically lower the Merit cost for recipes? 5 Merits should be worth a random roll IMHO. That would be nice. Anyway, got bored and am taking break from game. Not willing to cope with a terrible drop rate like we have right now.

Hopefully Going Rogue will make me forget about Recipes and loot when it will come out...


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Posted

Its nice to see the community going into troubleshoot mode instead of meltdown.

I can definitely see how this "bug" would generate disinterest in playing.

For now Loot and whatnots have been put on hold, getting my tank levels takes priority <thank heaven>

maybe something like that or base editing can keep attention until this gets fixed.


Ignoring anyone is a mistake. You might miss something viral to your cause.

 

Posted

One thing that I've been thinking about is whether it's possible that the recipes are getting lost in transit somehow. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know programming to any serious degree, but I do know problem solving and troubleshooting.

As a group, we're definitely seeing some very odd behavior coming through the system. Is it possible that there's something going on where the portion of the code that decides there's going to be a drop clicks properly, but that the portion that distributes that is sending it to the wrong place?

Also, are there any statisticians out there that can point out any issues with the way the math has been done along the way? Are we thinking we have a statistically significant sample, and we really don't? (From my understanding, I think that 5000+ trials of something with a 2-4% chance of occurring probably counts, but am I right about this, and what is the confidence in that sort of number?) I'm definitely willing to have it demonstrated that we're looking at this wrong, but there's been so much evidence compiled by multiple people, I'm finding that harder and harder to believe.

EDIT: Oh, and as far as I've gathered, it's been noticed that the salvage drop rates may be a BIT low, but it's very close to the expected number. Similarly with Inspirations, those still drop like candy. Enhancements seem to be off quite a bit too, but I don't have hard numbers on that. What, if anything, is different in the coding for dropping of different items?


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Synapse View Post
-14 to 19 recipes per mission
-5 to 8 enhancements per mission
-30 to 51 salvage per mission
Consolidated results. 3 runs at +0 level x 8 players, no bosses; contact: Abyss, 1st mission. Mission via Flashback with a level 50 Electric/Shield/Mu brute (Fell Fender) on Virtue Server.

Run 1 (4:34 PM Pacific)
Recipes: 9 (6 common, 3 set)
Enhancements: 6 SOs
Salvage: 25 (19 common, 6 uncommon, 0 rare)

Run 2 (6:38 PM Pacific)
Recipes: 2 (2 common, 0 set)
Enhancements: 4 SOs
Salvage: 40 (28 common, 10 uncommon, 2 rare)

Run 3 (7:19 PM Pacific)
Recipes: 8 (6 common, 2 set)
Enhancements: 2 SOs
Salvage: 37 (36 common, 1 uncommon, 0 rare)

I'm not getting close to Synapse's results. I don't how he's getting a minimum of 14 recipes per run. I'll try with bosses in.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Starcloud View Post
Synapse:

For a single player, no matter what the virtual team size, the drop rate is correct.
This is untrue. All you would need to do is to have read this thread to find extremely compelling evidence to the contrary. Indeed, virtually all of the meaningful data produced and posted here is for single characters.

Quote:
Conditions on Live are different, the random number generator is hit far more often, and there might be a contributing factor in the lag and occasional loss of sync on Live that are not possible on your internal test server.
We do not know enough about how the RNG is seeded or invoked to make any of those assumptions. In particular, this appears to assume that there is a single RNG used for all calculations across all zone instances. This seems extremely unlikely.


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Posted

Wow and I thought I was going crazy. Didn't think to keep track of data, but I do know that I was working through paper mission in PI set at x8/+0 and x8/-1 on two different characters. On my first character (x8/+0) I went through 3 paper missions. Wasn't really checking my recipes/salvage during this time but before I went to my 4th mission I decided "Better see what I got, don't want to fill up during the mission!". I had... one (1) lvl 50 recharge IO. After three missions set at +8. So I went to my second character and started things up, this time keeping track as I went. Did two missions with him, and got one recipe from mission complete. Then I logged off, and remembered today to check the forums and see if I was imagining things


 

Posted

All missions run on Pinnacle at difficulty +0/x8/yes/yes
All mission run in Peregrine Island using scanner and all missions 100% cleared.

Average number of recipes per mission: 4
Average pieces of salvage per mission: 14.5

Data per mission below. Now changing diff to +4/x8/yes/yes. Decided 10 missions per diff was enough.

Mission 1: CoT
7 basic recipes
10 common - 2 uncommon salvage

Mission 2: CoT
3 basic - 2 uncommon recipes
7 common - 3 uncommon

Mission 3: Council
3 basic - 1 uncommon recipes
15 common - 3 uncommon - 1 rare salvage

Mission 4: CoT
3 basic - 1 uncommon - 1 rare recipes
10 common - 1 uncommon - 2 rare salvage

Mission 5: Council
4 basic - 1 uncommon recipes
8 common - 1 uncommon salvage

Mission 6: Carnies
2 basic - 1 uncommon - 1 purple recipes
16 common - 5 uncommon salvage

Mission 7: Carnies
0 recipes
7 common - 1 uncommon salvage

Mission 8: Arachnos
1 basic - 1 uncommon recipe
12 common - 4 uncommon - 2 rare

Mission 9: Council
3 basic - 2 uncommon recipes
14 common - 2uncommon - 1 rare salvage

Mission 10: Council
2 basic - 1 uncommon recipes
13 common - 5 uncommon salvage


Be well, people of CoH.

 

Posted

Up till tonight, I was also feeling that drop rates were quite low. Then I hit a hot streak tonight. About 2 hours of play on a level 48 scrapper. Playing at +2 difficulty, 2 standard heroes, doing story arc door missions. On triumph.

I got 8 basic IO recipes, 3 meh level 48 yellow set recipes and 1 absolute amazement purple. *makes the absolute amazement face*

Anyways, that was tonight's streak breaker for me and my third ever non-purchased purple recipe FWIW.

Edit: I wasn't tracking salvage. Got all common and uncommon salvage until the end of my last mission against some Malta where two minions landed me two different rare tech salvages. All these missions were story arc missions against carnies and malta.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by EarthWyrm View Post
That means that SYNAPSE'S DROP RATE IS OUTSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR FOR THE MAP if he only got the LOWEST number of drops out of his 15 runs each time (which he didn't).
Translated to remove geekery:

If drops were working as intended, based on published drop rates, Synapse would get an average of 14 recipes/run over 15 runs between 1 time in 100 and 1 time in 1000.

Conclusion: Based on Synapse's own data, drops are likely not working as intended, but are also not uniformly low. If some people have "hot" versions of a map, while others have "cold" versions, then the average drop rate when datamined will look to be exactly where it's supposed to be.


My postings to this forum are not to be used as data in any research study without my express written consent.